Week 14: Rivalries

Welcome to one of the best weeks of the year. Thanksgiving brings not only a feast of food, but a 3-day banquet of great college football too. There isn't much better than heating up a plate of leftover turkey, stuffing, and mashed potatoes, or making a cold turkey sandwich, and curling up in front of a string of classic rivalries. 

College football is built on rivalry. Nearly every school has a sworn enemy, and they all play at the end of November in games that have their own names. The Iron Bowl. The Civil War. Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. The Backyard Brawl. State and regional bragging rights are annually on the line, records are tossed out the window, games are dictated by emotion and momentum, and fans open up the vault to retell stories of classic games. Everything is right in the college football world when you see teams like Alabama and Auburn lined up across from one another. This is the way it was meant to be.

So sit back and enjoy - the hits will be harder, the emotions more intense, the crowds more insane. We have some good football ahead of us. Grab a turkey leg and savor the feast! Just don't doze off on the tryptophan, even a meaningless game like the Egg Bowl (Mississippi-Mississippi St.) is worth a look on rivalry week.

I'll throw in as an added tidbit the game's name (if applicable) and series record, just to give some added flavor and history.

1. Florida at Florida State (Sunshine Showdown, The Battle for the Governor's Cup)

Series: Florida leads 31-19-2

The names for this game are lame, but the games are not. Once again this game contains massive national championship implications, as Florida must win to keep hope alive. It's not as big as it was in the 90's, when both teams were ranked in the top ten in every single matchup, but it still carries some weight. The Gators are rolling right now, and you'd think they wouldn't be slowed down even by a game against their biggest rival on their home field, even with Florida State's resurgence this year. But don't be surprised to see this one stay close. Florida State has the talent to scare Florida, but ultimately it's their youth that will kill their upset bid. They've got a bunch of young guys who don't quite know just what this game means, while the Gators have more guys who've been here before. Expect a lot of bravado out of the Seminoles before kickoff and a few gadget plays that send some scares into the Gators (Bobby Bowden's still got a few tricks up his sleeve), but an overpowering second half by Florida will shut the Seminoles and their crowd up.

Florida 31, Florida State 21

2. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (The Bedlam Series)

Series: Oklahoma 78-16-7

Oklahoma State has only beaten the Sooners 16 times in 101 tries, so it's hard to even consider this game a rivalry in the true concept of the word. It's been lopsided to say the least. But in recent years, the Cowboys have been a thorn in the sides of the Sooners on more than one occasion. From 2000-2004, Oklahoma was ranked in the top 5 every year coming into their Bedlam game, only to lose two of those games and escape with narrow victories in 2 others. This is the first year since then that we have that scenario, and the best Oklahoma State team in quite some time. The Cowboys have heard the hype after Oklahoma's decapitating of Texas Tech, how most of the nation is already handing this game to the Sooners. They aren't intimidated by Oklahoma, and they'll show up ready to play on Saturday. But with all that said, Oklahoma State did lose to Texas Tech 56-20, who then lost 65-21 to the Sooners. Oklahoma's offense looks unstoppable right now, and it would seem foolhardy to predict that trend to stop. But that's what everyone said about Texas Tech just on week ago. I don't think this one will end in another eye-popping score, and I get the sense that all the politicking by Bob Stoops about their BCS ranking will come back to bite the Sooners. Play the games first, then go to the podium and argue your team's case! His players will follow his lead and won't be as ready to play as they should be, like last year when they were ambushed by Texas Tech in Lubbock after the doorway to the national championship swung wide open for them.

Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 42

3. Auburn at Alabama (The Iron Bowl)

Series: Alabama 38-33-1

Auburn's six year winning streak in the Iron Bowl is about to end. Tommy Tuberville looks like a lame duck coach and I have a hard time believing his offense will be able to do much damage to Alabama's stout defense. This game will be close, based on the fact that Auburn needs it to make a bowl game and the fact that Alabama's not the type of team to put up a Big 12-style blowout. But Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide will eke out a win that feels more comfortable than it looks on the scoreboard, if that makes any sense. I just think they'll dominate the line of scrimmage and be in control throughout, even though the score will be close.

Alabama 23, Auburn 14

4. Georgia Tech at Georgia (Clean, Old Fashioned Hate)

Series: Georgia 59-38-5

This is one of the most underrated rivalries in the sport. These teams just hate each other, not quite to the otherworldly level of Alabama-Auburn, but not that far off. Clean, Old Fashioned Hate is an apt description for this game, and it's usually pretty entertaining too. I still think Georgia is a team that's given up on their season, and if their defense has struggled so much with SEC offenses, most of which are conventional, pro-style sets, what will happen against Paul Johnson's funky option attack?

Georgia Tech 35, Georgia 27

5. Texas A&M at Texas (Lone Star Showdown)

Series: Texas 73-36-5

As recent years have attested, this is one game where records truly can be thrown out the window. A&M has beaten more talented, ranked Texas teams in each of the past 2 seasons, one of those games being played in Austin. This will be the Aggies' bowl game, and they're been an improving team bent on spoiling the Longhorns championship hopes. But Texas will be looking for style points, hoping to stay ahead of Oklahoma and in line for the BCS title game. And they're a much better team than the ones Texas A&M beat in 2006 and 2007.

Texas 30, Texas A&M 13

6. Oregon at Oregon State (The Civil War)

Series: Oregon 55-46-10

Amazingly, Oregon State stands on the verge of a Pac Ten title, this after starting 2-3. They'd love to get another crack at Penn State in the Rose Bowl, much to the dismay of the majority of college football fans, who'd love a Penn State-USC matchup. I think the Beavers get it done - they've proven that they can win close games and beat just about anyone. They're not going to be mistaken for one of the best teams in the country, but they're balanced and simply get the job done. 

Oregon State 27, Oregon 24

7. Notre Dame at USC (no nickname)

Series: Notre Dame 42-32-5

Syracuse? Even considering last year's carnage, the home loss to Syracuse may be the worst in the Charlie Weis era. Now the Irish face a USC team that's owned them for the past 6 years and face the certainty of falling to 6-6. 

USC 48, Notre Dame 10

8. West Virginia at Pittsburgh (The Backyard Brawl)

Series: Pittsburgh 60-37-3

West Virginia has been waiting a full year to get back at Pitt for their championship-eliminating defeat of last year. I think they'll get it - Pitt's had some struggles at home and their loss to Cincinnati put to bed any Big East championship hopes.

West Virginia 17, Pittsburgh 13

9. Kansas at Missouri (The Border War)

Series: Missouri 54-53-9

The Border War returns to relative obscurity after its brief spell in the national spotlight last year. The intensity won't lessen - these teams, and states, still have an icy-cold relationship. Missouri's already locked up the Big 12 North, so they don't have added incentive. but they'll still be ready. Chase Daniel will have a big day against a suspect Kansas defense.

Missouri 33, Kansas 20

10. South Carolina at Clemson (The Battle of the Palmetto State)

Series: Clemson 64-37-4

South Carolina can't wait to hit the field to wash out the bad taste of their 56-6 mauling in the Swamp, and Clemson can't wait to put this season behind them. I think this will be a close game - Clemson has more talent and plays at home but the Gamecocks are better coached (and have played, and won, in a tougher conference). Lets just hope it won't end in an ugly brawl again. Keep your wits about ya, boys!

Clemson 24, South Carolina 17

11. Virginia at Virginia Tech (The Commonwealth Cup)

Series: Virginia Tech 47-37-5

Virginia Tech controls their own destiny in the ACC Coastal division, which probably means they'll lose. Yet stupidly I'll pick them to win. Such is the ACC this year.

Virginia Tech 26, Virginia 20

12. Colorado at Nebraska (no nickname)

Series: Nebraska 46-18-2

The Buffaloes find a way to get a win in Lincoln, garnering a bowl invite for themselves. Look for their rushing attack to control the ball and eat up yards against the Cornhusker defense.

Colorado 38, Nebraska 31

13. Mississippi State at Mississippi (The Egg Bowl)

Series: Mississippi 59-39-6

Ole Miss established itself as more than a one-hit wonder last week (their one hit prior to last week being their fluky win at Florida), and Houston Nutt has used this season to reaffirm the fact that he's a very good coach. The Rebels could be in line for a New Years Day bowl if they take care of business against disappointing and offensively challenged Mississippi State.

Mississippi 16, Mississippi State 6

14. Maryland at Boston College

Not a traditional rivalry game, but worth picking due to the circumstances. It's win and in for BC at home, but Maryland's A team is due up this week after their B team got shellacked by Florida State at home. The way the ACC has gone this year, you can't seriously expect both Boston College and Virginia Tech to simply handle win-and-in situations against underdogs at home, can you? 

Maryland 21, Boston College 20

15. Western Michigan at Ball State

The feast begins Tuesday with 9-2 Western Michigan visiting 11-0 Ball State, in another non-rivalry game. Ball State passed a bigger test last week by beating Central Michigan on the road, but they should get all they can handle out of a Western Michigan team that beat Illinois earlier this year. It's a tough assignment on the back end of a difficult doubleheader, but I think the Cardinals get it done and get their undefeated regular season.

Ball State 34, Western Michigan 31

I want to close the post with a reminder to be thankful this week. We live in a country that has its flaws, but remains a place of freedom and prosperity, governed and protected by men and women who care about it deeply. We've truly been blessed by God, and we ought to take time to thank Him for His abundant provision and protection, and give thanks for the men and women who sacrifice so much so that we can enjoy these feasts of food and football. We're warm, well fed, and surrounded by those we love - and that's more than enough. Thank God!

Week 13: Did They Play Football Last Week?

We were witnesses to a never-before-seen occurrence in the history of college football last weekend: a November Saturday came and went, and nothing happened. No major upsets. No BCS shakeups. None of the typical November chaos, where we find ourselves waking up Sunday morning trying to sort out what just happened and who's in the driver's seat now. The only unexpected results came from the ACC, and we all know that there are no upsets in the ACC - every team is dead even.

So, in honor of the bye week last week became, I'm eschewing the typical lead-in item and moving straight to the picks. And just for kicks, I'll change it up this week. I'm going to give a 2-sided argument for each game, making each team's case for why they should win and then making the pick.

1. Texas Tech at Oklahoma

The case for Texas Tech: They're good. Very good. They have 2 legitimate Heisman candidates and a fleet of weapons for Graham Harrell. Cover Crabtree? He'll find Detron Lewis. Cover Lewis? He'll drop it to speedy little Eric Morris. With a playbook the size of an unabridged dictionary, Mike Leach finds ways to get the football to his playmakers in space. And there's no reason to think that will change against Oklahoma, who've given up plenty of points this season. Also, the Red Raiders defense was stern enough to frustrate Colt McCoy and Zac Robinson, so why not Sam Bradford too?

The case for Oklahoma: Know how many losses the Sooners have at home under Bob Stoops? The same as the number of sleeves on your shirt. That's right - two. In ten years. It's hard to argue against that kind of track record. And the Sooner offense is no slouch. They've been all but impossible to stop, hanging half a hundred points per game this season. Mike Leach has yet to beat Oklahoma in Norman, and even though this is his best team yet, the Sooners have one of their best squads under Stoops too. And we didn't have any BCS-busting results last week, so we're due for a few now, right?

Oklahoma 41, Texas Tech 34

2. Michigan State at Penn State

The case for Michigan State: They've gotten better as the season's wore on, the Ohio State loss being the only aberration. Javon Ringer is a workhorse who gets his yards and can wear down a defense. They're well coached - Mark Dantonio knows what he's doing and has kept the Spartans from their annual meltdown. And Penn State still isn't over their Iowa loss, meaning they'll come out flat and won't respond to a punch in the mouth.

The case for Penn State: There's a chance that this is Joe Paterno's last home game as head coach of the Nittany Lions. He denies it, but you know the thought has been circulating through his mind all season. You think Penn State's going to be fired up for a game like that - a legend potentially coaching for the last time in front of the home crowd? Of course. This team is full of sound leaders, something they proved very early in the season when they weren't sidetracked by a circus of foolish off-field incidents. The seniors have the team focused and what happened 2 weeks ago in Iowa City is a thing of the past. Another Big Ten title is in their sights, and the potential of a monumental Rose Bowl matchup against USC. And their defense isn't scared of Javon Ringer - stopping the run hasn't been the issue this year, their problems have come more in the passing game. They'll contain Ringer and Michigan State won't be able to keep up with the points the Nittany Lions ring up as they re-open their Spread HD attack. Michigan State's played just one team currently ranked in the BCS top 25. The result? A 45-7 throttling by Ohio State. The Spartans are good, but they're not in the same class as Penn State.

Penn State 35, Michigan State 21

3. Michigan at Ohio State

The case for Michigan: They'd salvage their season with a win over the hated Buckeyes, so they'll throw everything at Ohio State. Rich Rodriguez wants to win over the hearts of Wolverine fans after such a lousy start to his career there, and nothing wins hearts in Ann Arbor like beating Ohio State. They've shown signs of improvement over the last few weeks - maybe this is the week it all comes together?

The case for Ohio State: Take a look at Michigan's record. Take a look again. That's right, it's 3-8. This Michigan team is bad, and Ohio State would love to pound the snot out of them and put the cap on one of their worst seasons ever. The Buckeyes have finally become the team they thought they'd be at the beginning of the year, and they want to prove that they're still a viable BCS at-large option.

Sidenote: Last year Notre Dame went 3-9, and now we stand on the cusp of Michigan finishing with the same pathetic mark. Has the rapture happened, and we're all now in Heaven?

Ohio State 40, Michigan 17

4. BYU at Utah

The case for BYU: Simple - they can salvage their season and still have an outside chance of being the best non-BCS team out there. Utah's looked vulnerable for much of the season and the pressure of going undefeated will force mistakes.

The case for Utah: They're at home against their arch-rival in perhaps the biggest Holy War game in history, with a chance of their second undefeated season in 5 years and the possibility of being the first non-BCS conference team to twice play in a BCS bowl. Significant stuff. They're also more balanced than BYU and will be able to follow the template TCU laid out in blitzing Max Hall and forcing turnovers.

BYU 24, Utah 20 (expect craziness, right?)

5. Ball State at Central Michigan

The case for Ball State: Nobody's been able to beat them yet, why won't it continue?

The case for Central Michigan: The Chippewas are the best team Ball State's faced so far, and Dan LeFevour will give an average Ball State defense fits. And they're playing at home, on national TV. They, and their fans, will be up for this game.

Central Michigan 38, Ball State 35

6. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The case for Pitt: They play better on the road than at home, and they have the best player on the field in LeSean McCoy.

The case for Cincinnati: This is the biggest game in the history of old Nippert Stadium, and a win essentially gives them the Big East title (only Syracuse remains on the schedule). They have a maturing young quarterback in Tony Pike and good talent on both sides of the ball. Their defense is underrated and Pitt's offense has looked rather pedestrian at times. 

Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 17

7. Iowa at Minnesota

The case for Iowa: They've proven how good they are by beating Penn State, and though their record is 7-4 they could just as easily be 9-2 or 10-1. Their four losses have come at a total of 12 points. And Shonn Greene is a stud.

The case for Minnesota: Um, they're at home. Other than that, they're moving steadily backwards and look like a sunken team.

Sidenote: Floyd of Rosedale is one of college football's great trophies - a big bronze pig mounted on a block of wood. How fitting for a Big Ten rivalry.

Iowa 32, Minnesota 19

8. Oregon State at Arizona

The case for Oregon State: They've answered every test so far, and they've only lost once since dropping their first 2, against top-10 Utah on the road. And they probably should've won that game. They're improving weekly and can ride the Rodgers brothers to their first Rose Bowl since the last Ice Age.

The case for Arizona: As documented last week, the Law of the Five Middling Pac Ten Teams states that the home team always wins games contested by Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, California, and Arizona. This law has yet to be unbroken, and Arizona is a much better team at home than on the road.

Arizona 20, Oregon State 17

9. Stanford at California

The case for Stanford: Jim Harbaugh can coach, and he's made something out of seemingly nothing at Stanford. A win guarantees a bowl game, which would be a nice reward for 2 years of hard work. Cal is a vulnerable team with exploitable weaknesses on defense and an offense that can be pressured into turnovers. And they're still waiting on revenge for The Play.

The case for Cal: See above for the Law of the Five Middling Pac Ten Teams. Cal is at home, and they have more talent.

California 31, Stanford 28 (you don't question the Law of the Five Middling Pac Ten Teams)

10. Mississippi at LSU

The case for Ole Miss: LSU is a shell of the team that won last years national championship, needing a 28 point comeback to stave off a defeat against Troy. If the LSU defense had that much trouble handling Troy, Jevan Snead ought to have a field day. And the Rebels already won at Florida, so Death Valley won't intimidate them.

The case for LSU: Talent. They've still got lots of it, more than Ole Miss can boast of. And Death Valley is still Death Valley, it's one of the most intimidating venues in the country, even if it has lost some luster this year.

Mississippi 34, LSU 27

11. Boise State at Nevada

The case for Boise State: Kellen Moore is as good as any freshman out there. After winning at Oregon earlier this year, a tough road trip to Nevada isn't going to derail the young QB.

The case for Nevada: This looks like one of those weekends, where undefeated teams fall and weird things happen all across the country. Why can't the Wolf Pack join the fun? They've got a high-scoring offense and can keep up with the Broncos (just don't mention the part where they have to stop them).

Boise State 49, Nevada 41

12. Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech

I can't bring myself to make a case for the teams in these ACC games when they're all truly even. Leaving it to a toss-up is less stressful and just as effective.

Georgia Tech 23, Miami (FL) 17

13. Boston College at Wake Forest

Might as well be "Please select one of the following two letters: A or B".

Wake Forest 26, Boston College 24

14. Florida State at Maryland

X, or Z?

Florida State 21, Maryland 17

15. Washington at Washington State

This matchup is so bad, I just have to pick it. 0-10 Washington at 1-10 Washington State in what should be called the "Toilet Bowl" instead of the Apple Cup. I can't make a case for either team, by all accounts both should lose. Neither team has beaten a Division 1-A foe, but at least the Huskies have the most difficult schedule in the country as an excuse. They've shown some semblance of competitiveness. Washington State, which may be the worst BCS conference team ever, has allowed at least 58 points in 6 of their 8 Pac-10 games. Their own point total in all 8 conference games? 61 points. Yikes. If anyone is watching this game, it's either through holes cut in a paper bag or through a gap between two fingers.

Washington 24, Washington State 14

Week 12: Fear and Loathing in Happy Valley

I was a sophomore at Penn State in 1999, the last time the Nittany Lions ran off nine wins to open the season. Talk of a Sugar Bowl berth (the location of that year's BCS national championship game) swirled around campus. Penn State sat solidly at #2 in the BCS standings, and on November 6 an unranked yet deceptively good Minnesota team came to town, boasting a meager 5-3 (2-3 in conference) record. Their 3 losses had come by a total of 11 points, and they featured a good running attack behind Thomas Hammer, ranked in the top 10 nationally in rushing.

That day we filed into the student section, expecting nothing but another glorious Happy Valley Saturday and step 10 of our national championship quest. What we got was a game in which Penn State had control all day, the Gophers managing to keep within shouting distance but never really appearing to threaten. The Lions biggest concern? Tallying field goals instead of touchdowns, but that was only going to keep the final margin of victory low. The thought of losing never crossed our minds - we were clearly the better team and the one-score margin we held much of the day was more discomfort than concern. The student section had the intensity level of a September blowout against a MAC school, we were just that confident that we'd win. It was a certainty.

Then - the impossible. Minnesota, down 23-21, put together a last minute drive, capped by a fourth and 16 Hail Mary conversion to put them in comfortable field goal range. Now the Gophers, and the game, had our attention. The final seconds ticked off the clock as Minnesota's 32-yard field goal attempt sailed straight through the uprights.  Final score: 24-23.

The best way to describe the next few moments would be "stunned silence". No one moved. No one left the stadium. No one even spoke. We just stared at the field, watching in hideous agony as the stupid Golden Gophers celebrated wildly on the other side of the field, all sharing the same thought: "This isn't happening. It's a dream. We won. We're going to the national championship game. Right?" Then we filed back out of the stadium silently, like a funeral procession, leading to weeks of sulking, mourning, and general despondence. The Penn State program didn't fully recover from that loss until 2005. It was the worst loss I've ever experienced in my sporting life. It actually hurt. I still feel a twinge of anger and depression when memories or comments about that game come up.

Fast forward to November 8, 2008. The scenario and game eerily mirrored that horrible day 9 years ago. Penn State entered at 9-0, #3 in the latest BCS standings. They faced an Iowa team who came in at 5-4 (2-3 in conference), their 4 losses coming by a total of 12 points. They boasted a back, Shonn Greene, who ranked in the top 10 nationally in rushing. For Nittany Lion fans, Iowa was merely step 10 on our BCS championship game path. We, and much of the national media, had already written us in to the game on January 8.

We all turned on our TV's and watched a game that unfolded much like that Minnesota game 9 years ago - Penn State held control and even dominated in stretches, but had to settle too many times for field goals instead of notching touchdowns. The game had the effect of lulling you to sleep - the question wasn't whether Penn State would win, but how many style points they'd lose with the low margin of victory. Then the Hawkeyes - impossibly, it would seem - mounted a final minutes drive that ended in a 31-yard field goal attempt. We all know they made it, of course, to again make 24-23 the final score. The only thing lacking was an improbable Hail Mary and a silent, comatose Beaver Stadium crowd. All other things were almost exactly the same. Uncanny.

Thankfully, I'm much older now and know that football is much more miniscule than I treated it as a student (and admittedly sometimes treat it even now). But it still hurts. And I do feel for those students in Happy Valley. Cheer up, Penn Staters, I don't think this loss will cripple the program for half a decade - there's a lot more maturity and young talent there then when I was a cherubic little sophomore.

Incidentally, this game adds to my argument that college football shouldn't go to an 8-team playoff. If such a playoff existed, either including the 6 BCS-conference champions and 2 at-large teams or simply the top 8 in the BCS standings, the Nittany Lion loss would be meaningless. They still control their own destiny in the Big Ten, and remain in the BCS top 8. All the drama of Saturday afternoon would've been sucked out of Kinnick Stadium, and we'd have been left with a run-of-the-mill midseason conference game. How many games like this one would be rendered all but moot if the NCAA went the route of a playoff? If you want a playoff, prepare for some dry storylines and drama-free games over the course of the second half of the season. I'll take the season-long buildup of drama that having must-win games every week brings. 

Thanks for letting me use this space to vent. It was theraputic. And now, to the stuff you came here for - the weekly race to 9-6!

1. South Carolina at Florida

It's hard to believe, but this is the most appealing game on the calendar this week. Maybe it's a good Saturday to catch up on some leaf-raking. Wait, who am I kidding? College football delivers the goods each week, no matter how unappetizing the matchups look. In this one, golden boy Steve Spurrier returns home to the Swamp, where he'll not exactly receive a hero's welcome. Florida's playing better than anyone else in college football right now - they've not scored less than 40 in a month, and should keep rolling even against a formidable Gamecock defense. Even if South Carolina manages to slow down the Tebow Express, they'll still face the daunting prospect of scoring against a Gator defense that's been unheralded but is allowing just a smidge under 12 points a game (9.5 if you take away the inexplicable Ole Miss game). Look for South Carolina to hang around a bit by keeping the Florida offense in check, then collapse under a 3rd quarter barrage. An interception TD will probably be thrown in the mix too.

Florida 41, South Carolina 13

2. Texas at Kansas

I think this game will be closer than advertised. Texas has proven susceptible to a good passing offense, and Todd Reesing and Kansas have the tools to make some dents in the Longhorn secondary. I don't think Texas is looking past Kansas, but they may be surprised how talented this 6-4 team is offensively.

Texas 42, Kansas 35

3. Ohio State at Illinois

Illinois snuck out of Columbus with a big upset W last year, and don't think the Buckeyes have forgotten. It was their only regular season loss in a 2-year stretch. Illinois is certainly not the same team this year, and even though they're due for an "on" week in their recent on-again off-again cycle, their "on" game might not be enough to keep up with the red-hot Buckeyes. The Illini will compete, but Ohio State puts it away in the fourth quarter for a fairly comfortable win.

Ohio State 34, Illinois 20

4. Georgia at Auburn

The oldest rivalry in the South is my upset special for the week. Auburn's been downright pathetic this year, but they need to win one of their last 2 (the other being the Iron Bowl) to go bowling. Georgia showed last week that they've all but abandoned their season by having to survive a scare from a bad Kentucky team (who somehow is bowl-eligible!). Auburn's offense is about as dangerous as a bag of cotton balls, but they'll be able to score some points on a Georgia defense that's hung an "Open for Business" sign on their goal line.

Auburn 24, Georgia 20

5. BYU at Air Force

I'll admit that I did a double-take when I saw "8-2 (5-1 MWC)" next to Air Force's score line. Really? Who have they played? After a little digging I found out that their losses were by 7 at home to Utah (not bad) and by 6 at home to Navy (not surprising, it's a rivalry game). More did you knows: Air Force has 7 (yes, s-e-v-e-n) players who've rushed for more than 200 yards this season, none more than 470. That's balance, folks. And they've attempted only 90 passes all season, which would barely cover one half of a Big 12 game. BYU has a middle of the pack defense, and they've not faced an offense like the Falcons' this year. I've done gone and talked myself into an upset pick!

Air Force 28, BYU 26

6. California at Oregon State

Oregon State surprisingly controls their own destiny in the Pac Ten, though they've got a tough 3 game stretch ahead of them. Cal will pose some problems, as USC is the only team with a winning record the Beavers have beaten. But they are undefeated at home, and Corvallis has never been an easy place to play. It should also be noted that Cal is 1-3 on the road, their only win over Division-III Washington State.

Oregon State 31, California 23

7. Arizona at Oregon

Home field advantage has been the rule of thumb in these middle of the pack Pac Ten games this year. In all the games played so far between the 5 teams fighting it out behind USC (Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal), every single one of them has been won by the home team. I'll stick with the trend.

Oregon 27, Arizona 21

8. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)

ACC fun time! Why try to analyze it when guessing is just as precise?

Miami (FL) 20, Virginia Tech 14

9. North Carolina at Maryland

I just have no idea.

North Carolina 30, Maryland 27

10. Boston College at Florida State

I'm picking Florida State, although I really want them to lose so Paterno stays at least one ahead of Bowden.

Florida State 21, Boston College 16

11. Mississippi State at Alabama

Mississippi State shouldn't pose a threat to Alabama, although the Crimson Tide have struggled to win their last two home games against overmatched SEC opponents. Alabama doesn't do it with style points, but they get the job done and roll on.

Alabama 23, Mississippi State 10

12. USC at Stanford

Forgot this one in my Pac Ten section. USC will be out for revenge against the Cardinal, so don't expect another titanic upset. Stanford does have a much better team this year, but USC's defense is just too loaded. And fast.

USC 28, Stanford 7

13. Oklahoma State at Colorado

The Cowboys bounce back with a win against an unspectacular Colorado team. I like Mike Gundy (he's 41, by the way) and I think he'll be able to pick his boys up after getting trashed in Lubbock.

Oklahoma State 42, Colorado 21

14. Minnesota at Wisconsin

The Golden Gophers are going in the wrong direction, and Wisconsin seems to have righted itself. The Badgers won't go to one of the major Big Ten bowls, but they'll sure give the MAC champ all they can handle in the Motor City Bowl!

Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 17

15. Cincinnati at Louisville

Obligatory Big East pick here. Like the ACC, consistency isn't a strong suit for this conference. But I do like Cincinnati's team, and think they'll squeak past a Louisville team that's been all over the map with their results this year.

Cincinnati 27, Louisville 24

Week 11: On Polls

With Election Day arriving tomorrow, I figured it would be appropriate to do a little commentary on the plethora of polls that determine college football's champion. Or, to be more accurate, a scathing commentary on why in the world computer ranking systems are used in determining who gets to play for the national championship.

I know why computer ranking systems came into the equation. Back in the stone ages when the BCS was evolving out of the primordial soup of the bowl alliance and bowl coalition, a select few computer ranking systems were lumped in with the human polls in the BCS formula, largely because the human polls were regarded as too incomplete. It was thought, and rightly so at the time, that human polls contained inherent bias - no one could possibly watch every game and many teams, specifically west coast teams who routinely played late at night, went unnoticed and underappreciated. And it was thought that general regional bias existed - people voted for names they knew and teams from their region. Traditional powerhouses were given preference over upstarts and the major conferences ruled the roost. Computer polls, the argument went, contained no bias; they simply spit out the rankings from a cold and unemotional formula.

Nowadays, the power program bias and regional bias still exist to some degree, but the argument that human voters can't submit an objective ballot is moot.  In the internet and 24-hour sports news era, a voter can read a quick synopsis of each game within a few minutes of its conclusion, they can TiVo or DVR games and fast-forward through, and can watch relevant highlights on College Football Final and espn.com. More than ever, voters can make an accurate assessment of who is better than whom.

Computers, on the other hand, cannot. Football is more art than science - it's an emotional game that ebbs and flows in momentum, and contains lots of those little things a computer can't see - a lucky bounce here, a questionable call there, a foot that lands millimeters out of bounds rather than in - plays that don't show up on stat sheets but have major impact on the outcome of winners, losers, and the final score. A cold mathematical formula can't possibly take these things into account. People can. Having computers as part of the determination on how teams stack up against one another is a bit like adding a computer formula as 1/3 of the electoral college. It's ludicrous and shouldn't be. Let people who can watch a game with their own 2 eyes assess the rank of each team, not soulless machines programmed by math wizards in an ivory tower somewhere! (Note: not a knock on the men who devise these intricate formulas - they're much more brainy than I. I just need to validate my use of the word "scathing")

My solution to minimizing bias and eliminating computers from the rankings? Combine the three major polls (AP, Coaches, Harris), add some more knowledgeable, independent observers to the lot, and let that one poll determine the BCS rankings. Eliminate preseason polls and begin the rankings after everyone's played 3 games. Make each person's ballot public (how hard is it to publish it on the web each week?), and hold the voter accountable for their votes. If clear bias or a record of inconsistent or questionable voting appears, put them before a vote of their peers to determine whether or not they deserve to keep their vote. Neat, tidy, simple, and fair.

On to the picks...

1. Penn State at Iowa

The Nittany Lions more than any other team have a target on their back from the computers. Their schedule won't possibly be able to stand up to that of a Big 12 or SEC team, so the threat of them being leapfrogged by a one-loss team is very real. You'd think they'd begin to feel the pressure of not only having to win, but win convincingly enough to impress both the pollsters and computers. But my hunch is that this team is level-headed enough, and well-coached enough, that those things won't cause them to crack under the pressure. Nor will it influence their game plan. I had this Iowa game circled about a month and a half ago as the danger game on Penn State's schedule. The Hawkeyes run the ball well and play good defense, and those things make you dangerous. If they can hold onto the football and keep the clock running, they can make things dicey for the Lions. But I think their offense is too one-dimensional to really dent Penn State's defense. Penn State won't walk into Kinnick Stadium and blow out the Hawkeyes, but they'll be plenty strong enough to win in classic Big Ten, grind it out fashion.

Penn State 28, Iowa 10

2. Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

After winning college football's Game of the Year, Texas Tech has to be due for a letdown, right? They face a still-underrated Oklahoma State team that just might be the best in the Big 12. They've got the most balance of all the contenders, with a 5th ranked rushing attack nationally to compliment Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and a lethal passing game. And their defense is the most solid of all the Big 12 powers. They nearly took out Texas a week before the Red Raiders did, in Austin to boot. Mike Leach will have perhaps the most difficult coaching job of his career this week, getting his boys focused to play a very good team after last week's hoopla and the coming of the national spotlight to Lubbock. His unconventional ways might serve him well here. But I think the Cowboys get the W in another Big 12 thriller.

Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 28

3. Alabama at LSU

LSU will be a trendy upset pick, but I don't think the Tigers are very good. Florida and Georgia both gashed them, and while Alabama won't put up 50, they'll be able to move the ball. And the Crimson Tide defense will give Andrew Hatch or Jarrett Lee fits. Alabama survives another week.

Alabama 30, LSU 17

4. California at USC

If this were a road game for the Trojans, I'd be wary of picking them. But they're rolling right now, especially at the Coliseum, and Cal won't prove to be much more than a bump in the road.

USC 41, California 14

5. Ohio State at Northwestern

Northwestern doesn't come into games against Ohio State ranked very often, so the small yet hardy group of fans in Evanston will be ready. But Ohio State will bounce back and get a win here. I like Terrelle Pryor's maturity and competitiveness, and I think he'll show that he's got a good head on his shoulders by being able to put the heartbreaking loss to Penn State behind him.

Ohio State 27, Northwestern 13

6. TCU at Utah

I was called out this week for neglecting the Mountain West. I'm not hatin', there just hasn't been a worthy and intriguing game for awhile! Until now. One of those crazy Thursday nighters that are so hard to predict (and so hard to watch - it's televised on the "CBS College Sports Network". Who even has that channel?). Utah appears to be limping into this game, but that could just be the manner in which they win: grinding, tough wins that don't look impressive on paper. Meanwhile, TCU looks to be getting better each week, especially since their thrashing of BYU a few Thursdays back. I'll give them the nod on the road - they'll win it with defense.

TCU 21, Utah 17

7. Georgia at Kentucky

It'll be hard for Georgia to pick themselves up and be ready to play for this one. Their slim national title hopes and their SEC title hopes burned to the ground last week, so they won't have much to play for. Remember, this is the preseason #1 we're talking about - they were national title or bust. Will they continue to crumble? Or will banged up Kentucky roll over and let the Bulldogs by. Kentucky's 2 SEC wins were both by one point, against Mississippi State and Arkansas, so that tells me they've not got a whole lot to work with. Georgia steadies itself, at least for the time being.

Georgia 26, Kentucky 14

8. Georgia Tech at North Carolina

Time for the weekly rapid-fire, no thought ACC picks. The true definition of crapshoot. I've actually done pretty well in ACC games since my rant a few weeks back - I think my formula of "you're ranked, you'll lose 4 times out of 5" is working. But what happens if both are ranked? Can they both lose?

Georgia Tech 24, North Carolina 23

9. Clemson at Florida State

Call it the 1/2 Bowden Bowl.

Florida State 31, Clemson 21

10. Maryland at Virginia Tech

Maryland's already lost this season after being newly ranked, so the precedent is set.

Virginia Tech 20, Maryland 13

11. Cincinnati at West Virginia

West Virginia is coming on strong, but they still look to be a team that would get crushed by an elite opponent. Good thing no such team exists in the Big East. Whoever wins that conference, along with the ACC winner, may just collide in the worst matchup in the history of the BCS. Good thing for Miami that they get to host the BCS Championship game along with the Orange Bowl this year. And while we're here, kudos to Marshwan Gilyard for his response to the kid he steamrolled in the stands last week, and kudos to the little guy who took a shot and got back up. He's got some slot receiver in him.

West Virginia 34, Cincinnati 27

12. Louisville at Pittsburgh

Pitt plays to the level of it's competition, and Louisville just lost to Syracuse. So expect an ugly game.

Pittsburgh 31, Louisville 26

13. Notre Dame at Boston College

Tough road trip for Notre Dame after a difficult-to-swallow 4OT loss at home to Pitt. Boston College loves playing spoiler to Notre Dame, and they'd love to complete the severing of any mention of "Notre Dame" and "BCS" in the same sentence. Unless that sentence would read, "Notre Dame is yet again not going to play in a BCS bowl."

Boston College 25, Notre Dame 23

14. Stanford at Oregon

These two are tied for 4th in the Pac Ten. 

That's about all the commentary I can muster for this one.

Oregon 42, Stanford 27

15. Oklahoma at Texas A&M

I feel obliged to pick either this game or Florida-Vanderbilt, not because I expect it to be a tough pick, but because it's hard skipping over both of those national title contenders. I'm choosing this game because it'll be closer. Texas A&M is improving while Vandy is declining. And the Aggies have more history. Oklahoma should show up and continue the status quo in this one, which lately has meant scoring half a hundred by intermission and flipping on cruise control in the second half. A&M might make it a little more interesting than that - they could hold the Sooners under 40 before halftime. Moral victories like that are worth celebrating in Aggieland, where they've not had much to cheer about lately.

Oklahoma 52, Texas A&M 31