Well, well, here we are, about to turn talk to action on the 2010 season. There's been more upheaval and chaos this offseason than any in recent memory. I'm not going to reproduce the 15,000 words needed to recap all the movement, threatened movement, allegations of impropriety, and off-field naughtiness. I will say one thing, though, before moving on to my season preview: the conference movement is not over. Not by a long shot. In fact, this offseason may have been only a small skirmish in what will become a multi-year territorial war.
The Big Ten already has hinted at expanding to 14 or 16 teams; expect that to happen before 2015. The Mountain West, desperately seeking to crack the BCS boys club, needs one more program to reach an even 12. Utah State seems to have the pole position now, but if the MWC were wise they'd go after Houston - a program with both football and basketball cache. The Pac Ten is licking their wounds a bit after their eleventh hour grab at the Big 12 South was nixed, but they've made their intentions clear - try to take over the college football world. And it's only a matter of time before the rest of the Big 12 gets fed up with the biggest piece of the financial pie going to Texas every year. The games have begun, but they've only begun.
The tumult of the offseason has taken focus away from what's about to happen on the field. But don't be misled - this could be another fantastic season. Parity fills the Big Ten, Pac Ten, ACC, and Big East, and the likelihood of any BCS conference team finishing unbeaten is slim. The likelihood of most preseason predictions being correct is even more so. I've scanned several preview mags, websites, and blogs, all with widely diverse predictions. So I can say with confidence that the following fifteen fearless forecasts for this season will be wrong. Guaranteed. What other prognosticator will give you that sort of airtight guarantee?
Still deciding to read on? Good, here are 15 things to watch for this season...
1. Finally, a non-BCS Conference Team Makes the National Championship Game...But It Won't Be Who You Think.
The Boise State bandwagon is about to become one of those tractor-triple-trailers you see cruising across the Midwestern plains. A top 5 preseason ranking, 20 returning starters, momentum from an undefeated season, the tight focus of the national media - is it too much for the Broncos to handle? These Broncos are good, no doubt, but their schedule is quite a bit more difficult than one's they've had in their 4 year run of success (FYI - best record in college football over the last 4 seasons). I see 5 games Boise State can lose - the opener against Virginia Tech, game 2 at a sneaky-good Wyoming team, game 3 on the blue turf against Oregon State, one of the Pac Ten favorites, November 19 at home against original WAC giant killer Fresno State, and the second to last game at Nevada - a team who had a near-miss in Boise last year. The pressure, and attention, will increase with every successive week. I just don't think they'll do it.
Meanwhile, nearly everyone is forgetting about TCU, another team coming off an undefeated season, another team sitting neatly in the top-10 (also more highly ranked than any non-BCS team has been since I can remember), another team loaded with returning talent. The Horned Frogs have just enough meat on the schedule to creep up the rankings if they keep winning, and the MWC is strong enough to keep their computer rankings high. The biggest potential stumbling block comes on November 6 at Utah, but TCU handled the Utes last year and there's no reason to think they won't do it again. Couple TCU's potentially clear run with the parity that rules other conferences, and it's not hard to envision the Horned Frogs sneaking into Glendale on January 10.
2. The Sun Belt Puts a Team in the Top 25
Um, what? Yes, you read that right. Sun Belt teams typically get served up like mice being dropped into a python tank during the early part of the season, and this season will be more of the same - except for one team. The Troy Trojans have had some near misses in recent seasons, and the only non-conference game they have that appears intimidating is in week 2 at Oklahoma State, who's not exactly going to be chasing a BCS bid. If Troy knocks off the Cowboys, they could easily run off a bunch of conference wins and find themselves sitting at 10-0 before their late season tilt at South Carolina - definitely worthy of a top 25 ranking.
3. Hokies Fail To Meet High Preseason Expectations - Again.
I'm convinced that until Frank Beamer exits, Virginia Tech will not break through and win a title. The Hokies always seem to attain a high preseason ranking, only to stumble into 3 or 4 losses. And no matter how many people think Tyrod Taylor is the answer at QB, they're wrong. Inconsistency and poor decisions seem to follow, and it'll only be a matter of time until they drop one or two in-conference games they shouldn't.
4. Cincinnati Still Rules The Big East
The Bearcats, minus Brian Kelly, are picked by most to be a middle-tier Big East team, but why? Sure, Kelly brought them their high perch, but the cupboard isn't bare. Zach Collaros started half the season in Tony Pike's stead, and the offense didn't miss a beat. Mardy Gilyard is gone, but USC transfer and highly recruited Vidal Hazelton has the potential to put up similar numbers. And Isaiah Pead, perhaps the most underrated running back in the Big East's deep RB field, returns to tote the rock. New head coach Butch Jones kept Central Michigan at the top of their conference after Brian Kelly left, and he'll do the same at Cincy.
5. Say Goodbye To...
Dan Hawkins, Rich Rodriguez, Ron Zook, and Les Miles. Four high-profile coaches who'll get canned at season's end. The Dan Hawkins era has been a disaster at Colorado, Michigan won't stand for the loose reins RichRod wields (not to mention the incessant losing), Ron Zook is all recruit and no sideline skills, and it looks like the shaky end of game management could finally come up to bite Les Miles at LSU (more on that later). Fellas, get your resumes ready!
6. Say Hello To...
Here are 5 names you need to know, because you'll be hearing them lots by the end of the year:
1. Darron Thomas, QB, Oregon. Just named the starter today, Thomas will make the loss of Masoli an afterthought, don't be surprised if he makes a dark horse Heisman Trophy push.
2. Vidal Hazelton, WR, Cincinnati. See above. Hasn't played in nearly 2 years, all kinds of talent and has been itching to suit up.
3. Austyn Carta-Samuels, QB, Wyoming. As a freshman, led Wyoming to a shocking bowl bid; dual threat QB with breakout potential
4. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. Best RB on a team that includes the reigning Heisman winner in its backfield. Yikes. If Saban unleashes him, he could win the Heisman this year.
5. Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State. Beast at middle backer could be college football's best.
7. Ole Miss Benefits From Oregon's Misfortune
Houston Nutt has excelled at taking low-expectation teams and producing unexpected success. Unfortunately for him, he also is good at falling flat when the hype is high. But that was last year. With Jeremiah Masoli under center, Ole Miss could emerge as the new SEC West dark horse. Aside from a brutal October stretch (@Bama, @Arkansas, home for Auburn), the schedule sets up nicely for the Rebels, and Masoli could terrorize stout SEC defenses. Look for them to finish roughly where they did last year (#20 & 21 in the national polls).
8. Meet Your 2010 Heisman Trophy Winner...Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor
Vince Young parlayed a fantastic Rose Bowl into a breathtaking junior season, winning a national championship with Texas and winning the Heisman*. Pryor's career arc is, as you most likely have heard, eerily mirroring that of Mr. Young. A solid, and at times spectacular, year is in the cards, and as the captain of a top title contender, Pryor will be lifting the bronze bust in New York (though a national title is a question mark...you'll have to read on).
*vacated by Reggie Bush
9. Georgia Is Back With a Vengeance
Mark Richt has built a re-load, not re-build program in Athens, which is what made last year's dismal campaign so surprising. Now, with expectations low and no target on their backs, the Bulldogs may just shock everyone and win the SEC. The big if is at QB, but if they find a man who can distribute the ball without making huge mistakes, the offense will click. A.J. Green is the best receiver in the conference, they're loaded at RB, and the O-line is full of experience. The defense was a mess last year, but it became a major target area in spring and should show tremendous improvement. Scores of athletes raked in from past recruiting hauls can't hurt either. Here's a bold pick - Georgia derails the national title hopes of both Florida (in Jacksonville) and Alabama (in Atlanta in December).
10. Surprise Teams of the Year: the Arizonas
Both Arizona and Arizona State, that is. The Sun Devils have fallen extremely short of expectation recently, but you can bet that Dennis Erickson has a few tricks left in the ol' bag. Transfer Stephen Threet (defector from Michigan - good choice, young man) will engineer points, and the aforementioned Vontaze Burfict is an anchor in the middle of the defense. They're picked in the lower half of the Pac Ten, but they'll surprise quite a few people. So will their cross-state rivals, who have steadily improved behind Mike Stoops, and now stand on the cusp of being a contender in the conference race. They won't win it, but with USC, Oregon State, Washington, and Cal all coming to Tuscon, they'll be in the race. All it might take is an upset of Oregon on the second to last week of the season.
11. Bust of the Year: LSU
The SEC is built on defense. LSU's will be solid, even with 8 starters gone from last year. But if you're going to compete for league titles, you need to conjure up some offense from somewhere. Despite some of the best talent in the nation, the Tigers failed to do so last year, and I'm convinced it starts with the QB. Jordan Jefferson has been suspect at best, taking too many sacks and making too many risky throws - throws that, in the SEC, will often result in 6 points for the opposition. It's hard not to expect more of the same. Tie that together with the puzzling late game decision making by The Hat, and it's easy to see LSU plummet to 6-6. The SEC West has 4 legitimate top 25 teams, and LSU is on the outside looking in.
12. Conference Call
A quick conference overview: winners, losers, and surprises from each.
ACC
Winner: Miami. Canes finally break back in to college football's elite.
Loser: Duke. Promising progress of last year submarined by difficult schedule.
Surprise: Boston College. Always under the radar, Eagles ride solid coaching and defense to 10-win season.
Big East
Winner: Cincinnati. See above.
Loser: West Virginia. Questionable coaching and QB questions point to disappointing year.
Surprise: Connecticut. Huskies never seem to get pub, but they're always solid and could push for league title.
Big Ten
Winner: Ohio State. Again.
Loser: Illinois. So tempting to say Michigan, just because, but Illini will close out Ron Zook era with a whimper.
Surprise: Purdue. In deep Big Ten race, Purdue's offense could have them cracking the top 4.
Big 12
Winner: Oklahoma. Under the radar after a bad year, Sooners have all the tools to take the title.
Loser: Kansas. Tough start to Turner Gill's promising career. Too much talent gone from past 2 years.
Surprise: Missouri. Will push Nebraska for North crown. Blaine Gabbert is the real deal.
Pac Ten
Winner: Oregon. No Masoli, no problem. Ducks still major national title contender.
Loser: Washington. Expectations are simply too high. Jake Locker is good, but football isn't a one man game.
Surprise: the Arizonas. You already knew that.
SEC
Winner: Georgia. You knew that too.
Loser: LSU. Ditto.
Surprise. Mississippi. Um, repeat.
Mtn. West
Winner: TCU. No one else is in same class.
Loser: BYU. Hard fall to earth after several successful seasons.
Surprise: Wyoming. Follow up bowl season with even more success this year.
WAC
Winner: Boise State. No surprise here, surprise will be that they won't go through conference unbeaten.
Loser: Louisiana Tech. QB shift, coach shift, offensive philosophy shift. Too much shift.
Surprise: Utah State. Bowl bound after encouraging 2009 season.
C-USA
Winner: Houston. Case Keenum breaks NCAA yardage record in process.
Loser: Tulane. Hapless would be an accurate adjective here.
Surprise: SMU. Get Houston at home, could pull big upset and win division.
MAC
Winner: Northern Illinois. But watch out for Temple. Yes, Temple.
Loser: Ball State. Coach Stan Parrish has career record of 4-42-1. Ouch.
Surprise: Ohio. Conference champ not expected to do much in title defense, but they'll make a push again.
Sun Belt
Winner: Troy. Trojans reload in the Sun Belt sense of the word.
Loser: Western Kentucky. Transition to D-I ("FBS") is a real bear. Worst team in the land.
Surprise: Troy. Not expected to do much with so much talent lost. But, again, they're the Sun Belt's Texas - just reload, aim, and fire.
13. Bowls
A rundown of my predicted bowl matchups (and arbitrarily picked results - it's really touch picking hypothetical games that won't happen for 5 months!). Bold=BCS Bowl
New Mexico: Colorado State over Utah State
Humanitarian: Nevada over Ohio
New Orleans: SMU over Troy
St. Petersburg: Rutgers over UCF
Las Vegas: Utah over California
Poinsettia: Navy over Wyoming
Hawai'i: Fresno State over Southern Miss
Little Caesars: Temple over Northern Illinois*
Independence: Air Force over Clemson
Champs Sports: Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Insight: Texas A&M over Michigan State
EagleBank: Wake Forest over East Carolina
Alamo: Arizona over Missouri
Armed Forces: BYU over Army
Pinstripe: Oklahoma State over Connecticut
Music City: Georgia Tech over Tennessee
Texas: Northwestern over Texas Tech
Holiday: Oregon State over Kansas State
Meineke Car Care: Pittsburgh over Florida State
Sun: Arizona State over Boston College
Liberty: LSU over Houston
Chick-fil-A: Mississippi over North Carolina
Dallas Football Classic: Washington over Michigan
Outback: Penn State over South Carolina
Capital One: Florida over Purdue
Gator: Arkansas over Wisconsin
GMAC: Central Michigan over Arkansas State
Cotton: Auburn over Nebraska
Birmingham: West Virginia over Kentucky
Kraft Fight Hunger: Boise State over UCLA
Fiesta: Alabama over Cincinnati
Rose: Ohio State over Oregon
Orange: Iowa over Miami (FL)
Sugar: Georgia over Texas
*yes, that's two MAC teams in a bowl game. The bowl system is complicated, ok, don't make me explain it!
14. The BCS National Champion Is...
The Oklahoma Sooners. If you followed the bowl list closely, you'd have noticed that Oklahoma and TCU are left. That's your BCS Championship matchup, and Bob Stoops gets over the big game hurdle to take the crystal football. The Sooners have the right combination of schedule (toughest road game: @Cincy, no Nebraska, a weakened Texas and a weakened South), offensive balance (DeMarco Murray is a potentially great back, Ryan Broyles is a top-flight receiver, Landry Jones has a valuable year under his belt), and defensive muscle (Jamarkus McFarland is a beast in the middle of the line, with plenty of talent behind him), and coaching (Stoops may get a bad rap for losing big games, but he's still one of the best in the business). Add it all up, and it looks like Oklahoma's year. From the standpoint of a week before kickoff, at least.
15. The Final Poll
Every summer I get a copy of The Sporting News college football preview and start working through a mock season - taking it week by week, running a simulated poll, and coming up with this: the final, post-bowl projected poll. It sounds like it takes way too much time, but if you start in early June, when the preseason mags hit the shelves, it's only about an hour or two a week. I do have quite a life outside of this blog.
So, keep in mind that this is not a preseason poll, how I'd rank the teams on perceived strength right now. It's a prediction of where this plane will land come January 11. Also, a disclaimer - lots of news about suspensions and injuries have come out in the last week or two, and aren't necessarily reflected here. Notably, the North Carolina debacle and Missouri's starting RB's sexual impropriety issues.
1. Oklahoma
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. TCU
5. Alabama
6. Florida
7. Iowa
8. Oregon
9. Miami (FL)
10. Boise State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Auburn
13. Mississippi
14. Texas
15. Boston College
16. Missouri
17. Arizona
18. Penn State
19. North Carolina
20. Nebraska
21. Cincinnati
22. Arkansas
23. Pittsburgh
24. Texas A+M
25. Utah
Let the debate, and the season, begin!
Check late Wednesday or early Thursday for week one picks.
