When the NCAA added a 12th game to the schedule a few years ago, many people thought it meant more marquee intersectional matchups, like Ohio State-USC or Auburn-West Virginia. And we do have those, but it certainly doesn’t seem like we have more than when the college football calendar had 11 Saturdays. What we do have more of is the big boys going after that extra home payday by scheduling a cupcake willing to take a few hundred thousand athletic department bolstering bucks. This weekend’s slate is littered with these such games.
The problem for the blockbuster programs is, sometimes these minnows rise up and slay the giant. See Appalachian State v. Michigan, circa Labor Day weekend 2007. It’s rare for a little guy to earn those victories, especially for those from the Division 1-AA ranks; more likely that they put a good scare into the BCS giants and wake them up. There are a few games this week that I think will provide some spooks for the big boys.
1. Utah at Michigan
This might be the toughest game to read. Who knows what to expect from Michigan? They could set the world on fire under RichRod’s spread offense, or come out flat and get run off the field by a very good Utah team. We know Michigan will be ready, they do not want to start off with a home loss to a non-BCS conference school 2 years in a row. I’m going with Utah, I just can’t see Michigan transitioning that quickly into a brand new offense with the amount of time they’ve had and the amount of inexperience on their starting roster. Michigan’s season again opens on a disappointing note again. Utah 27, Michigan 20
2. Appalachian State at LSU
Have we ever had an opening week matchup between two defending national champions? There are other, more glamorous games on the schedule this week, but this might be the one I’m anticipating most. Can App. State do it again? How good is LSU this year? What will happen if this game is close late? Will LSU tighten up and let potential Heisman candidate Armanti Edwards beat them? A few factors line up against Appalachian State this time around: LSU will be ready, they know what happened in Ann Arbor last year; Tiger Stadium is a significantly more difficult place to play than the Big House; and this year’s LSU team is better than last year’s Michigan team. I see this as a tight game in the first half that will open up in the second. LSU 37, Appalachian State 21
3. Virginia Tech at East Carolina
This one looks dicey for the Hokies, who appear to have some issues on offense with no Branden Ore toting the rock. East Carolina is a solid football team who looks to contend in C-USA with a boatload of returning starters. I think Virginia Tech pulls it out, but it’s pretty much a coin flip. Virginia Tech 23, East Carolina 20
4. Florida Atlantic at Texas
Howard Schnellenberger has built himself quite a football team in the Florida Atlantic Owls. This is likely his best team, and they’ll push a Texas team that’s rebuilding (at least in the Texas sense of the word – 10 wins are still expected and likely). FAU will remain close but won’t get enough defensive stops to pull the upset. Texas 35, Florida Atlantic 24
5. Colorado vs. Colorado State
For the first 4 games on this list, an upset honestly wouldn’t be all that shocking. Not so in this game. CSU has had a string of difficult years, and find themselves at the bottom of a conference they used to win regularly. Their rivals in Boulder, meanwhile, are poised for a return to college football prominence with a potential breakout season. But this is a rivalry game, which tends to narrow gaps significantly. CSU would love nothing more than to derail the Buffs big hopes and land a program-building victory of their own. This is a game that Colorado could easily overlook, with West Virginia and Florida State looming later in September, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they come out flat against an amped-up Rams squad. But Colorado clearly is the better team, and they’ll wake up in time to stamp out the Rams upset hopes. Colorado 21, Colorado State 16
6. Boston College vs. Kent State
I don’t know why this matchup intrigues me. Kent State is historically one of the worst programs in major college football, and Boston College has quietly become one of the most solid. Kent State lost 9 games last year, and Boston College was in the national title hunt for much of the season. But Kent State is a potential MAC sleeper – their record last year was somewhat due to injuries. And Boston College lost tons of talent, mostly on offense, and something tells me Jeff Jagodzinski is in for a sophomore slump. Kent State can win this game. But as much as I’d like to, I just can’t pull the trigger. Boston College 27, Kent State 21
7. Bowling Green at Pittsburgh
A lot of people might take a look at this week’s schedule and peg this as one of the week’s upset threats. Bowling Green isn’t a bad team, but Pitt should have a breakout year and will be ready to play. LeSean McCoy will emerge as one of the nation’s top 5 backs by the end of September; don’t be surprised to see him go above 200 yards in this one. Bowling Green hangs for a quarter and a half, then Pitt pulls away. Pittsburgh 45, Bowling Green 17
8. Illinois vs. Missouri
There are some big-time matchups this weekend too, and the Illinois-Missouri tilt is chief among them. This was a close, high-scoring game last year, and I expect more of the same. Like LeSean McCoy, Arrelious Benn is poised for a breakout year, and I’m not sure Missouri will be able to stop him. If the Illini defensive line, which is very good, can pressure Chase Daniel, they have a good chance to spring the upset. If not, Daniel could have a field day. I expect lots of scoring in spite of 2 good defenses, and Illinois avenging last year’s close defeat. Illinois 41, Missouri 35
9. Alabama vs. Clemson
You might not want to go to Nick Saban for ethics advice, but for coaching a big football game you won’t do much better. Saban’s Crimson Tide are probably one year away from fully re-entering the national picture, but this year should be the springboard that takes them out of mediocrity. As for Clemson, their history suggests that in spite of sky-high expectations, they’ll choke somewhere down the line. Might as well be here – it would save their fans even greater heartache in October or November. Alabama takes it on a late field goal. Alabama 19, Clemson 17
10. Fresno State at Rutgers
Labor Day afternoon brings this interesting matchup. Fresno State lives up to their “anyone, anywhere” mantra with a cross-country flight to the exotic locale of north Jersey. At least they won’t be distracted by the scenery. I think Fresno leaves Jersey with a shootout victory, they’re just a better team than the Scarlet Knights. Fresno State 42, Rutgers 30
11. Michigan State at California
I don’t have much to say about this one, other than the fact that both of these teams could win anywhere between 5 and 10 games this year without it coming as much of a surprise. As such, I’ll pick a close one, and it’s never bad to side with the home team. California 38, Michigan State 37
12. Kentucky at Louisville
Kentucky was a surprise team last season, Louisville could be this year. Steve Kragthorpe has a good quarterback in Hunter Cantwell, and he’ll lead an offense that will put up plenty of points. That’s par for the course at Lousiville. Unfortunately, so is having an open door policy on defense. Louisville will have to tighten up at the back in order to become the surprise team I purport them to be, just not this week. Scoring heaps of points will be enough. Louisville 48, Kentucky 31
13. Tennessee at UCLA
This is the dessert to a weekend feast of college football, and it could turn out to be pretty tasty. At least seeing those two names on the same scoreboard ought to spark some interest. Tennessee has a gauntlet of a schedule to get through and eventually it will catch up to them, but this week they’ll show up in SoCal fresh and ready to play. UCLA has Rick Neuheisel on the sidelines and perhaps not much else going for them. They appear to be a team destined to play a bowl game sometime around December 27. Tennessee 27, UCLA 14
14. Washington at Oregon
Washington will be a solid team and a tough matchup this year, but they’re not walking out of Autzen Stadium with a win. This one could get ugly in the second half. Oregon 42, Washington 17
15. Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech
So you’ve gone through this whole list without seeing USC-Virginia or Hawaii-Florida, and you may be wondering why I chose this game over those. Well, it would be easy to sit here and tell you that USC would beat Virginia by 6 touchdowns, or that Hawaii has about as much chance of beating Florida as I do of outrunning Usain Bolt. I’m not here to pad my record though. I want to pick the big games and intriguing matchups of the week, and give myself a bit of a challenge. This game falls under the “intriguing” category. Mississippi State’s offense is so lackluster that their spring game finished 0-0. But that defense! That means basically any game Mississippi State plays will be close, and Louisiana Tech is a potential thorn in the side of the WAC favorites. Sylvester Croom is an excellent coach who’s got the Bulldogs going in the right direction, and he’ll find a way for his team to get enough points for the win. Mississippi State 17, Louisiana Tech 10
Next week: my initial Top 15 rankings, plus an investigation into how East Carolina possibly managed to get both Virginia Tech and West Virginia to come to Greenville, NC on successive weeks to open the season. Mob ties?
