I don't smell football as much as I used to, but every now and then on the crisper August days, I catch a whiff. It sends a wave of anticipation through my limbs - football! - and stirs my mind to the yearly predictions I never fail to make. It's in this spirit that I write this blog. Each week through the college season I'll pick winners for the most intriguing 15 games on the slate, along with this comprehensive preseason forecast. My aim: to have some fun writing about and prognosticating on my favorite sport, and to pick 4 out of every 5 games right. Lofty, yes, but I'll be picking strictly winners, not against the spread; and if you can't shoot for a difficult goal, why play?
Here's 15 fearless forecasts for this college football season:
1. BCS Tables will be turned...
...as a one-loss Ohio State team beats an undefeated SEC team to win the National Championship. The Buckeyes are loaded with returning starters and 2 years of experience (read: frustration) in BCS championship games. They’ll lose a Big Ten game that they shouldn’t, but the field will fall back to them and open the door for BCS redemption. And a man in a sweater vest will lift up a crystal football in Miami.
2. Ohio State-USC and Georgia-Florida will essentially be national semifinal games...
...and the two teams not expected to win them will. When it all shakes out at the end of the year, these four teams will be the top four in the polls. Ohio State will make an early statement by beating a good, yet not invulnerable, USC team in the Coliseum. Then Florida will win the game of the year in Jacksonville, breaking the hearts of Bulldog fans and propelling them into the national championship game. Georgia’s schedule is just too brutal, and this is the game that will finally bite them; while USC has enough inexperience at the skill positions to hamper them against a great Ohio State defense.
3. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman...
...with lots of help from Percy Harvin. The Tebow/Harvin duo will confound defenses all season, and Urban Meyer will find hundreds of ways to unleash these lethal weapons. The jump pass? So last year. Maybe this year we’ll see the underhand volleyball serve for a 2-point conversion.
4. Utah, not BYU, is the real potential BCS party crasher...
...and their Nov. 22 matchup is must-see TV. Last year the Border War between Missouri and Kansas was the bitter regional rivalry that grabbed the national spotlight. This year it’ll be the Holy War. Utah has lots of experience returning and the chance to gain lots of momentum with an upset of Michigan in week one. They’ll come close to running the table, but fall a Michael Phelps fingernail shy of breaking into the BCS.
5. The Big East is the most balanced conference in college football...
...if you ignore the fact that Syracuse plays there. Maybe the conference should have booted the Orangemen instead of Temple. The other 7 teams will be within 2 conference victories of each other at season’s end. From favorite West Virginia to rebuilding Rutgers this conference is sneaky-good, and these teams will beat each other up all season long. Expect some topsy-turvy results, wild momentum swings, and a competitive title race up until the first weekend in December.
6. Fans at SEC stadiums will get lots of free football...
...as more games will go to overtime than in any other conference. And they won’t just be limited to Les Miles and his cavalcade of coronaries. With so many great teams, great coaches, and intimidating stadiums, SEC games will routinely go down to the wire and many will be forced into extra sessions. Proving again that the SEC is the class of college football, both in quality of teams and quality of play.
7. Fans in Michigan will be both enthralled and enraged at their teams...
...sometimes at the same time. The Wolverines are perhaps the toughest team to predict this season, as they transition to a new coach and a new offense, while breaking in new starters at every skill position. They also have a subtly difficult schedule, opening with two home games against teams that could walk into the Big House and beat them (Utah and Miami-Ohio), then facing a difficult Big Ten trek. They do have the advantage of years of strong recruiting and talent all over the roster. Meanwhile, Michigan State could be the Big Ten sleeper, except for the fact that part of the Spartan tradition includes epic mid-season collapses and moments of temporary brain loss. Expect both of these teams to play marvelous football, win games they shouldn’t, then in the next week look like they’ve never seen a football before. Lots of TV’s in Michigan will be broken at season’s end.
8. Years of dominance will end in the Big 12...
...as the North will surpass the South. Top to bottom, the North is a better division for the first time in a long time, maybe since the conference came together. Missouri is a national title contender. Colorado will surprise a lot of people. Kansas will be strong even though their record won’t show it (their opponents from the South: @ OU, home for Texas and Texas Tech). Nebraska and Iowa State will improve, leaving Kansas State as the only bottom-feeder. Meanwhile, both Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will struggle, Baylor is Baylor, and both Texas and Texas Tech will fall short of high expectations. Texas has too many holes to fill, and Texas Tech won’t be able to just show up and outscore teams in this conference, there are too many good offenses to try to stop. Oklahoma will run away with the division.
9. Both Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden will retire at season's end...
...with Paterno finishing ahead of Bowden in the final total victory count. Only one win currently separates the two, and while it would be poetic that the two legends would finish in a tie, Penn State is more than one win better than Florida State. The Seminoles mediocrity will persist even though their team will be improved. Penn State is better than most people think, with strength in the trenches, a very good defense, and experience and talent at the skill positions. The race to the old folks home will end with JoePa in the #1 rocking chair.
10. The seat underneath Charlie Weis will become a bit warm...
...as Notre Dame will limp to a lower-tier bowl game. The good news for Irish fans is that Notre Dame will be better than the abysmal 3-9 campaign of 2007, but the improvement won’t be drastic. Last year’s version of the Fighting Irish was downright awful, and expectations that this year’s team (with most of the same players) will suddenly go out and win 10 games, even with a soft schedule, are vastly overblown.
11. The Sun Belt will place at least 2 teams in the postseason...
...because of the sheer number of bowl spots open. Sixty-eight (!) bowl spots are available this year, which means only 43% of Division 1-A (yes, I know that’s the old term, but I’m old skool) teams won’t make bowls. Mediocrity in college football means a postseason reward, albeit in “glamorous” spots like Albuquerque, Detroit, and Shreveport. As a result, some power conferences will fail to meet their quota of bowl-eligible teams. The Sun Belt, which only once placed more than one team in a bowl once in it’s history, will capitalize. This conference is actually not half bad at the top – Florida Atlantic will challenge both Texas and Michigan State in the early season, and Arkansas State, Troy, and Middle Tennessee all with push the Owls for the conference title. One, maybe two, of these teams will play in late December.
12. Surprises and Disappointments
Here are my surprise teams, along with teams I think will disappoint this season, broken down by each BCS conference and a general “non-BCS” category.
ACC: Surprise - North Carolina, Disappointment - Clemson
Big East: Surprise - Louisville, Disappointment - Connecticut
Big Ten: Surprise - Penn State, Disappointment - Wisconsin
Big 12: Surprise - Colorado, Disappointment - Texas A&M
Pac 10: Surprise - Washington, Disappointment - Arizona State
SEC: Surprise - Mississippi State, Disappointment - Tennessee
Non-BCS: Surprise - Utah, Disappointment - Tulsa
13. Conference Picks
Here are my conference winners (second division winners in parenthesis)
ACC: North Carolina (Clemson)
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Missouri (Oklahoma)
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida (Auburn)
C-USA: East Carolina (SMU)
MAC: Central Michigan (Miami-Ohio)
Mtn. West: Utah
Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic
WAC: Fresno State
14. Bowls
BCS Championship: Ohio State over Florida
Fiesta: Missouri over Virginia Tech
Sugar: Georgia over Oklahoma
Orange: West Virginia over North Carolina
Rose: USC over Penn State
Cotton: Texas over LSU
Capital One: Auburn over Wisconsin
Gator: Clemson over Pittsburgh
Outback: Illinois over South Carolina
GMAC: Ball State over SMU
International: Notre Dame over Miami-Ohio
Liberty: East Carolina over New Mexico
Chick-fil-A: Alabama over Florida State
Insight: Michigan over Nebraska
Music City: Mississippi State over Miami (FL)
Sun: South Florida over California
Armed Forces: TCU over Tulsa
Texas: Houston over Iowa State
Holiday: Oregon over Colorado
Humanitarian: Boise State over Buffalo
Alamo: Michigan State over Texas Tech
Papajohns.com: Rutgers over Mississippi
Independence: Kansas over Tennessee
Emerald: Arizona State over Maryland
Champs Sports: Iowa over N.C. State
Meineke Car Care: Wake Forest over Louisville
Motor City: Central Michigan over Purdue
Hawaii: Washington over Fresno State
Poinsettia: BYU over Middle Tennessee
New Orleans: Florida Atlantic over Southern Miss
Las Vegas: Utah over UCLA
St. Petersburg: Central Florida over Cincinnati
Congressional: Connecticut over Navy
New Mexico: Air Force over Hawaii
15. The Final Standings
Note: these are not my preseason rankings, but how I think they'll finish after the season plays out.
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. USC
4. Georgia
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Texas
11. West Virginia
12. Utah
13. North Carolina
14. Virginia Tech
15. LSU
16. Alabama
17. Illinois
18. Colorado
19. BYU
20. Texas Tech
21. South Florida
22. Clemson
23. Pittsburgh
24. Mississippi State
25. East Carolina
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