Spring Top 15

Spring games began to make an appearance on the far reaches of the cable universe this weekend, giving us a brief chance to think, even for just a fleeting minute, of college football again. Like many off-season (and in-season) parts of the sport, spring games are overblown and overrated. We're 4 months away from the season, 3 from the start of practice, yet tens of thousands of fans travel to and dissect these games as though it were mid-October. Sure, it's nice to see some football, it's not a bad way to spend a spring afternoon, and you get a first look at the recruits; but let's keep it in perspective. Spring practice and the spring game are much like NFL minicamp, which nearly no one, including the foremost NFL analysts, pay much attention to. Lots can and will happen from now until August.

But, the appearance of football in April gives the opportunity to release a super-early top 15. This top 15 is a 4 part cocktail of speculation, reflection of what's happened in the off-season to date, a carrying forward of last season's results, and bias. You won't see Notre Dame or Michigan coming anywhere near this thing.

Before a look at the 15, a detour back to college basketball for a few minutes. Its been 2 weeks since Duke held off Butler in an epic final, and this is the first chance I've had to share my Final Four reflections. They are as follows.

- Hindsight is always 20/20 they say, and hindsight this year tells us that Butler was highly underseeded. The Bulldogs were every bit as good as the #2 and #1 seeds in the field, and landed in the 5 spot because the reside in the backwater locale of the Horizon League. Talk of a preseason top 5 appearance next year is warranted, and should have been closer to the front of our minds when we filled out our brackets a month ago. Hindsight also says their coach is one of the very best in all of the NCAA.

- If Gordon Heyward's half court heave had fallen - oh, baby. That would have supplanted Lorenzo Charles, Christian Laettner, Bryce Drew and all the other oft-replayed March buzzer beaters to take the top spot as the greatest of all. A half court shot to win the title. Could you imagine! And he was at most 3 inches off. It also would have pushed the Duke-Butler game into "greatest college basketball game ever played" territory. It was a magnificently tense, well-coached, well-played, riveting affair. As it stands it deserves merit as one of the greatest finals of all time, and had Heyward added the slightest twitch of a finger, it would have joined the Duke-Kentucky regional final in the top 2 games ever played in the sport.

- There were a lot of jokes surrounding the Bob Huggins-DeSean Butler moment in the semifinal. But those making homoerotic wisecracks about the exchange are either very misguided about what true masculinity is or way too insecure about themselves. What we saw in those few moments was one of the most powerful, and most manly, things we'll ever see in sports. I have never seen a coach do what Huggins did before. DeSean Butler was in utter agony, more so in his soul than in his body. Wracked with pain in his knee, he also took upon himself the inevitable loss to come, and the thwarting of his much beloved coach's first national title. All the emotion of it came crashing down on him, and the nation watched a broken man writhing on the final four floor. Bob Huggins, of course, recognized this, and did what a real man would do in that situation. He laid aside the rough exterior he's well-known for and entered into another man's pain, bringing comfort, care, and true love to a player he cares deeply about. I nearly cried as I watched Coach Huggins cradle Butler's head, gently stroking his cheek with his thumb, saying over and over again that he loved him and he's proud of him (as Butler would later reveal). Manhood isn't just about being a warrior, a protector, a competitor. It's also about being a friend, and a real man, a strong man, can take off the armor and truly, tenderly, display love to another man, without fear of appearances. Bob Huggins did just that, and it was a beautiful picture of love and true masculinity.

Detour over, back on the highway now. Here's my highly speculative, highly unscientific spring top 15.

1. Alabama

What, you expected anyone else? The Crimson Tide won the title, return every key offensive starter including the Heisman winner and a QB who's not lost since he hit puberty, and haul in another impressive recruiting class. Like last year with Florida, everyone expects Bama to be back in the title game. Just don't remind Tide fans how Florida's year panned out.

2. Ohio State

Coming off an impressive performance in the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes look poised to plod back into the BCS Championship game. Terrelle Pryor's career has strangely mirrored that of Vince Young, only Pryor is statistically further along. Young ended up with a national championship as a senior - will Pryor's come as a junior?

3. Boise State

Everyone's darling. Twenty returning starters. Finally some national respect. A near-genius coach. Big time non-conference games. The table is set for the first non power conference school to win the national title since BYU in 1984. Can Boise, who's used to the underdog role, handle the pressure of being in the spotlight every week?

4. Texas

Ranked this high because Texas doesn't rebuild, they just bring forward the next batch of all-American talent stocking the shelves, and because Garrett Gilbert got about a year of experience in one game by playing in the national championship. He nearly led the Longhorns to win the darn thing too.

5. Miami (FL)

Too high? Maybe. But don't forget how Jacory Harris became the Heisman favorite for a brief moment in late September. He showed his potential in the early part of last year, and if he can carry that through a full season, the Hurricanes can return to the national title picture behind he and the boatload of young talent that's gathered and matured in Coral Gables these past 2 seasons.

6. Iowa

Ricky Stanzi doesn't impress a lot of people, but all he seems to do is win. Undefeated with Stanzi under center, the Hawkeyes fell when he did. This year they bring back ferocious Adrian Claybourn and a stout defense, their fleet of runningbacks all return, with the addition of last year's incumbent starter before injury, Jewel Hampton, and a healthy Stanzi under center. Circle November 20 on the calendar - that's when the Buckeyes head to town for the Big Ten's game of the year.

7. Florida

Like Texas, Florida is another program that can lose nearly every key performer and still sit firmly in the top 15. The talent is just so deep. John Brantley will have a plethora of options in distributing the ball, and the defense may start freshman, but they'll still be tenacious.

8. Oregon

I was considering placing the Ducks at #1 before they became a hotbed of legal turmoil. Now they've lost their 2 most talented and lethal offensive performers, Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James, and in spite of a talented, experienced roster, one cannot help but assume they'll struggle at least a bit. Then again, Chip Kelly navigated this road before, guiding the Ducks to a Pac-Ten title after LaGarrette Blount's embarrassing outburst in Boise.

9. Pittsburgh

The Panthers have been stockpiling quality talent for years, and return their best players on both sides of the ball. Dion Lewis may run for 2000 yards, and if they can find a QB who can rival Bill Stull's performance from last year, they'll be in the Big East, if not the national, mix.

10. Oklahoma

Bob Stoops is too good a coach for the Sooners to have 2 down years in a row. Landry Jones may not take them all the way to the top, but he has the talent around him to come close.

11. USC

Ain't what it used to be, but the Trojans will churn out another BCS berth behind Matt Barkley and their All Star roster.

12. Virginia Tech

They'll be ranked higher than this in the preseason, but history tells us that the Hokies always manage to finish somewhere around here. And I just can't consider a team a national title contender when Tyrod Taylor is running the show.

13. TCU

There's no reason to think the Horned Frogs can't crash the BCS again. Just watch out for the opener against an always underrated Oregon State team. TCU could fall out of BCS contention in week one.

14. Oregon State

Speaking of the Beavers, they have the misfortune of playing both BCS busters this year - TCU and Boise State. But Mike Riley, one of the best in the business, stayed in town, and he'll have both Rodgers brothers back to wreak havoc on the Pac Ten.

15. LSU

Major questions surrounding the competency of QB Jordan Jefferson keep the Tigers from being higher on this list. LSU has the overall talent to win it all.

And, for good measure, the next 15. Let the debate begin!

16. North Carolina

17. Wisconsin

18. Arkansas

19. Nebraska

20. Penn State

21. Georgia

22. Texas A&M

23. South Carolina

24. Cincinnati

25. Missouri

26. Georgia Tech

27. California

28. Utah

29. Florida State

30. Purdue

Next: either an argument for a 96-team NCAA basketball field, or the very overdue 4-year football rankings. Who knows what or when - stay tuned!

Final Four Thoughts

What have these past 2 weeks proven? On a macro level, parity in college basketball is as strong as ever. The 3 teams everyone unanimously considered head and shoulders above the rest (Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse)? All bounced before the Final Four. The one #1 seed that didn't belong on that line (Duke)? In the Final Four. Two teams (Michigan State, West Virginia) lost starting point guards in the middle of their run and still made it. One team (Butler) hails from the Horizon League, snugly the 11th or 12th best conference in college basketball.

On a micro (i.e. me) level, my skill level at bracketing the teams pre-tournament far outweighs any skill at predicting how they'll advance through it. I managed one Final Four team (West Virginia) and yielded only 2 of the elite eight. And that was the good side of it. My 2-year old daughter is slaughtering me. And how did she pick the teams? I asked the simple question of, "Do you want Wisconsin or Wofford?", etc., or "Do you want #1 or #16?" The result: 3 of the final 4 (Michigan State, West Virginia, Duke) correct. It should be stated that I noticed a pattern, 90% of the time she would select whatever was asked second in the question, so I consciously began to backload favorites. But it wasn't failsafe, as she seemed to love the words "Michigan", "Duke", and "Florida" (her champ), selecting them no matter when asked. I would never try to goad her into picking Duke, so I tried everything I could to prevent her from picking them. To no avail, obviously. And so I'm being put to shame by a girl who's not watched more than 30 straight seconds of basketball her whole life. But chances are you'll still stick around to see who I pick this weekend!

Before the picks, some thoughts on today's talk of expanding the tournament to 96 teams:

Like everyone else, I think it's a tremendously dumb idea. Why mess with the best sporting event on the calendar? The "first-round game" was bad enough. Why let mediocre teams, who will never have a shot to win the thing, into the field? Notice who makes the Final Four and wins the championship every year: the ones, twos, and threes of the world. This year, with 2 five seeds in it is an extreme anomaly, something that happens every 5 or 6 years. Only twice have double-digit seeds made it, and both times fell in the semifinal. If the field is expanded, the extra 31 teams in would fall into this "no chance" category, along with nearly all the final few at-large teams there are. If it were ballooned this year, teams like Miami (FL) and St. Louis would be in. Do we really want that?

National Semifinal #1: Butler vs. Michigan State

Amazingly, Michigan State has made the Final Four 6 of the past 12 years. That's an astounding stat, given how difficult it is, and how much luck is required, to advance through any particular tournament. This should be definitive proof that Tom Izzo is the best tournament coach there is. No wonder Oregon is knocking at his door. No matter how mediocre the season, Izzo will have State ready come tourney time. Same thing this time around. The Spartans were fading fast by the end of the Big Ten season, and nearly no one who saw the brackets come out 3 weeks ago would have given them a chance of advancing from the toughest region in the field. Yet here they are, plucky as ever. Even losing their best player didn't derail them. But there's more to this run than Tom Izzo's guidance. Seed-wise, they had the easiest run of all the Final Four participants. They had to tackle the gauntlet of a 12-seed, a 4, a 9, and a 6. Not exactly murderers row. Luck can be a huge part of this event. Not one of their opponents, save for possibly Tennessee, would have made even a generous list of national title contenders. And it took a buzzer beater to beat Maryland, and a last second free throw to knock out the Volunteers. That track record doesn't instill a lot of confidence.

On Butler's side, everyone by now knows the Hoosiers angle and the drama of the Cinderella story. But even though they'll play 5 miles from campus and will have most of the impartial observers on their side, playing in Indy won't provide a great home court advantage. The building is cavernous and enough opposing fans will be present to make it a true neutral court. This team is a shooter's team, and the size of the building will affect distance shooters more than anyone else. On a team this small, they'll need to get their shot under them quickly. Michigan State has long been one of the more ferocious rebounding teams in the country, and Butler's small stature will prevent them getting multiple looks per possession.

A broad look at it will make most pick Michigan State - experience, coaching, and rebounding ought to push them past the Bulldogs. But the heart picks Butler. They're good for at least one hometown win in this shindig.

Butler 73, Michigan State 70

National Semifinal #2: West Virginia vs. Duke

If you know me, you know that I hate Duke, and that it would take an awful lot of convincing for me to pick them. On selection Sunday, these two were the center of the "who's the fourth #1 seed" debate. I, along with a slight consensus, considered the Mountaineers more worthy of the spot. The committee felt otherwise. And now we'll see who's right.

Coach K isn't far behind Tom Izzo when it comes to tournament coaching success, though it's been a 6-year eternity since the Dukies made it this far. But he's done it with far more blue-chip talent. Still, you get the sense that this is far from Duke's best team under Kryzyewski, and that they are here largely because they benefited from some, ahem, favorable bracketing.

West Virginia has played its best basketball of late, and to me look like the team to beat in the Final Four. They hit a stride in the Big East Championship that's continued nicely into the NCAA's, even with the loss of Truck Bryant. Fortunately for the Mountaineers, they're the type of team who can stick just about anyone at point guard and be ok. All they need is someone who can control the ball, play good defense, and make sure the scorers get it on the offensive end. Joe Mazzula actually does a better job of than Bryant, and he's got grit to go with it. He's the type of player the rest of the team feeds off of, especially on the off occasions when he does score. The Mountaineers seem to have a little more jump with him at point. And West Virginia has the length and athleticism to frustrate Duke, and the edge in the clutch department with DeSean Butler.

West Virginia 67, Duke 59

(Presumed) National Championship

I'll go with WVU to cut the nets down on Monday - again, they're a talented, well-coached team playing their best at the right time. Butler falls just shy of making the original Hoosiers story obsolete.

But beware Mountaineer fans - I've been extraordinarily wrong at this to this point. My vote isn't exactly a confidence-inducing one.

West Virginia 71, Butler 65

Next week: Back to football, with the unveiling of next year's top 15.