On a micro (i.e. me) level, my skill level at bracketing the teams pre-tournament far outweighs any skill at predicting how they'll advance through it. I managed one Final Four team (West Virginia) and yielded only 2 of the elite eight. And that was the good side of it. My 2-year old daughter is slaughtering me. And how did she pick the teams? I asked the simple question of, "Do you want Wisconsin or Wofford?", etc., or "Do you want #1 or #16?" The result: 3 of the final 4 (Michigan State, West Virginia, Duke) correct. It should be stated that I noticed a pattern, 90% of the time she would select whatever was asked second in the question, so I consciously began to backload favorites. But it wasn't failsafe, as she seemed to love the words "Michigan", "Duke", and "Florida" (her champ), selecting them no matter when asked. I would never try to goad her into picking Duke, so I tried everything I could to prevent her from picking them. To no avail, obviously. And so I'm being put to shame by a girl who's not watched more than 30 straight seconds of basketball her whole life. But chances are you'll still stick around to see who I pick this weekend!
Before the picks, some thoughts on today's talk of expanding the tournament to 96 teams:
Like everyone else, I think it's a tremendously dumb idea. Why mess with the best sporting event on the calendar? The "first-round game" was bad enough. Why let mediocre teams, who will never have a shot to win the thing, into the field? Notice who makes the Final Four and wins the championship every year: the ones, twos, and threes of the world. This year, with 2 five seeds in it is an extreme anomaly, something that happens every 5 or 6 years. Only twice have double-digit seeds made it, and both times fell in the semifinal. If the field is expanded, the extra 31 teams in would fall into this "no chance" category, along with nearly all the final few at-large teams there are. If it were ballooned this year, teams like Miami (FL) and St. Louis would be in. Do we really want that?
National Semifinal #1: Butler vs. Michigan State
Amazingly, Michigan State has made the Final Four 6 of the past 12 years. That's an astounding stat, given how difficult it is, and how much luck is required, to advance through any particular tournament. This should be definitive proof that Tom Izzo is the best tournament coach there is. No wonder Oregon is knocking at his door. No matter how mediocre the season, Izzo will have State ready come tourney time. Same thing this time around. The Spartans were fading fast by the end of the Big Ten season, and nearly no one who saw the brackets come out 3 weeks ago would have given them a chance of advancing from the toughest region in the field. Yet here they are, plucky as ever. Even losing their best player didn't derail them. But there's more to this run than Tom Izzo's guidance. Seed-wise, they had the easiest run of all the Final Four participants. They had to tackle the gauntlet of a 12-seed, a 4, a 9, and a 6. Not exactly murderers row. Luck can be a huge part of this event. Not one of their opponents, save for possibly Tennessee, would have made even a generous list of national title contenders. And it took a buzzer beater to beat Maryland, and a last second free throw to knock out the Volunteers. That track record doesn't instill a lot of confidence.
On Butler's side, everyone by now knows the Hoosiers angle and the drama of the Cinderella story. But even though they'll play 5 miles from campus and will have most of the impartial observers on their side, playing in Indy won't provide a great home court advantage. The building is cavernous and enough opposing fans will be present to make it a true neutral court. This team is a shooter's team, and the size of the building will affect distance shooters more than anyone else. On a team this small, they'll need to get their shot under them quickly. Michigan State has long been one of the more ferocious rebounding teams in the country, and Butler's small stature will prevent them getting multiple looks per possession.
A broad look at it will make most pick Michigan State - experience, coaching, and rebounding ought to push them past the Bulldogs. But the heart picks Butler. They're good for at least one hometown win in this shindig.
Butler 73, Michigan State 70
National Semifinal #2: West Virginia vs. Duke
If you know me, you know that I hate Duke, and that it would take an awful lot of convincing for me to pick them. On selection Sunday, these two were the center of the "who's the fourth #1 seed" debate. I, along with a slight consensus, considered the Mountaineers more worthy of the spot. The committee felt otherwise. And now we'll see who's right.
Coach K isn't far behind Tom Izzo when it comes to tournament coaching success, though it's been a 6-year eternity since the Dukies made it this far. But he's done it with far more blue-chip talent. Still, you get the sense that this is far from Duke's best team under Kryzyewski, and that they are here largely because they benefited from some, ahem, favorable bracketing.
West Virginia has played its best basketball of late, and to me look like the team to beat in the Final Four. They hit a stride in the Big East Championship that's continued nicely into the NCAA's, even with the loss of Truck Bryant. Fortunately for the Mountaineers, they're the type of team who can stick just about anyone at point guard and be ok. All they need is someone who can control the ball, play good defense, and make sure the scorers get it on the offensive end. Joe Mazzula actually does a better job of than Bryant, and he's got grit to go with it. He's the type of player the rest of the team feeds off of, especially on the off occasions when he does score. The Mountaineers seem to have a little more jump with him at point. And West Virginia has the length and athleticism to frustrate Duke, and the edge in the clutch department with DeSean Butler.
West Virginia 67, Duke 59
(Presumed) National Championship
I'll go with WVU to cut the nets down on Monday - again, they're a talented, well-coached team playing their best at the right time. Butler falls just shy of making the original Hoosiers story obsolete.
But beware Mountaineer fans - I've been extraordinarily wrong at this to this point. My vote isn't exactly a confidence-inducing one.
West Virginia 71, Butler 65
Next week: Back to football, with the unveiling of next year's top 15.
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