Cracking the Bracket

Basketball, more than any other major team sport, is a players game. What I mean by that is, a dominant player makes a much greater difference on the hardwood than anywhere else. A dominant quarterback is just one of 11 guys, and all he can do is get the ball into their hands. His success largely depends on those guys. A great hockey goalie can stand on his head for 60 minutes but if he doesn't have a group in front of him who can score, it won't matter. A pitcher can stifle the other team's lineup, but if his guys don't produce at the plate, the best he'll end up with is a no decision. But a dominant basketball player, especially one who can dominate on both sides of the floor, can single-handedly determine the outcome of the game. Examples are everywhere. Just last week ESPN showed their latest 30 in 30 film, "Winning Time", about Reggie Miller's battle with the New York Knicks. Reggie, fueled by the antics of a courtside Spike Lee, single-handedly won one particular playoff game by himself, scoring 25 fourth quarter points and making just about every shot he took, leading Indiana back from a 12 point deficit. Or a more recent, college example is Stephen Curry's leading of tiny Davidson to the Elite 8. Or Dwayne Wade driving Marquette to a Final 4. Especially when you're dealing with a 3-week, 6-game span, the single best player can carry his school to a championship. Just keep that in mind as you read on.

Before I crack open by picks, I want to build some credibility for myself by showing my bracketology results from last weekend. I took a few minutes to compare my predicted bracket with the actual, and with that of ESPN's resident bracketologist, Joe Lunardi - aka "Joey Brackets". The results were surprising.

I went in with the goal of picking 64 of the 65 tourney teams, and getting every team within 2 seed lines of their actual. Sadly, I missed it by one. I did nail 64 of the entrants, missing on Utah State (who, at a #12 seed, may have been the last at-large team in). But I was 3 lines off with Tennessee, who were given the rather shocking seed of #6, one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, miss the committee had. I had them as a #3. A four seed should have been as low as they could go. But I digress.

Here are my results when stacked up against Mr. Lunardi:

# of correct teams in field

Me: 64/65 Lunardi: 64/65

Seeding:

3 seeds off: Me - 1 Lunardi - 3

2 seeds off: Me - 12 Lunardi - 8

1 seed off: Me - 21 Lunardi - 27

Correct seed: Me - 29 Lunardi - 25

All in all, I'd say that's a push. Joey Brackets had more teams (52) either correct or within one seed of actual (to my 50). But I had more teams seeded correctly. I also had less teams seeded 3 away from actual. And the team who made it that he didn't predict, Florida, was a 10 seed, compared to the 12 seed that the team I missed on, Utah State, got.

This shows several things. 1) Joe Lunardi spends about 60 hours a week more than he needs to on this stuff (seeing as I out a TOTAL of about 10 hours into it, and only followed college hoops with a half-turned eye all season). 2) It's much more data-analysis than it is the actual watching of teams play. I basically looked over the schedule of most (not even all) of the teams and noted who they beat, where they beat them, and who they were beaten by. My "eye test" (one of this year's bracket buzzwords) was a perusal of the schedule. The information is all there - you don't need to get bogged down in the RPI, SOS, record v. top 50 or 100, road/neutral record, etc. The schedule shows it all. And 3) I'm a nerd for even making these comparisons.

I should admit that while I tried to avoid the influence of other "bracketologists", the constant chatter all Championship Week on ESPN about Lunardi's "last 4 in" and "first 4 out" was unavoidable. Possibly it influenced me more than I'd admit. And the scrolling team info was helpful too.

Anyway - unless you too have a strange interest in predicting who makes the field and how they're seeded and placed in it more than filling out the actual bracket when it's released, you're bored out of your mind at this point. I'll move on.

Here's a quick, region-by-region look at this year's field, with my predictions included. For clarity's sake, "Cinderella" refers to teams seeded 9 or below; "Sleeper" to teams seeded 5-8. And while we're on that subject, I need to editorialize for a minute. Here are some no-no's for you:

1) Don't call a team a sleeper if they're a 3 seed. Please. They're not. They're one of the top 12 teams in the field, and 3 seeds make the final 4 all the time.

2) Don't claim you've picked upsets by picking the ever-bold 5 over 4 in the second round, or 3 over 2 in the sweet sixteen. You're not fooling anyone - those games are toss-ups. A real upset pick involves teams seeded at least 3 spots from one another, with the exception of the 7 vs. 10 games.

3) Don't fill out more than one bracket. Please don't. The fact that ESPN now lets you fill out 10(!) brackets kills me. Be a man - make your actual picks and stand by them. No one wants to hear you bragging about how you only missed on 3 games the whole tournament, conveniently neglecting to include the fact that it was "Schmuck: Entry 8" on espn.com's Tourney Challenge. At that point, all you're doing is glorified guesswork, and you've got nothing to boast about, or any reason to claim them as "my picks". They're not. If you want to go ahead and fill out as many brackets as possible, please refer to them as "chances" from now on, because at that point it's become a raffle and you just bought more tickets than the rest of us.

Now that that's off my chest, on to my (only) picks.

MIDWEST REGION

Best Game (First Round): 6) Tennessee vs. 11) San Diego State. The Aztecs rode the Mountain West tourney wave all the way into the field, and now are one of the hottest teams there. The Vols feel spurned by the committee, and justifiably so, and could grump themselves into a loss when they should be playing Wofford. Expect lots of points in this game, and lots of angst coming out of Knoxville when the Vols get knocked off.

Best Potential Game (Late Rounds): 3) Georgetown vs. 2) Ohio State. While the game between Kansas and the winner of this one could be the de facto national championship, this contest would potentially be the most entertaining of the whole tournament, as both teams are riding hot streaks and have loads of star power and final 4 potential.

Cinderella: 13) Houston. Probably won't win two, but with pure scorer Aubrey Coleman leading the way, they certainly can win one.

Sleeper: 5) Michigan State. Tom Izzo led his troops from relative obscurity to the national championship game last year, albeit as 2 seed. Why couldn't the nation's best tournament coach crack the final 4 once again?

Picks:

Kansas over Lehigh

N. Iowa over UNLV

Michigan St. over New Mexico St.

Houston over Maryland

San Diego St. over Tennessee

Georgetown over Ohio

Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State

Ohio State over UCSB

Kansas over N. Iowa

Michigan St. over Houston

Georgetown over San Diego St.

Ohio State over Georgia Tech

Kansas over Michigan St.

Ohio State over Georgetown

Winner: Ohio State. Remember the comment about the best player in the field?

WEST REGION

Best Game (First Round): 5) Butler vs. 12) UTEP. Lots of upset play here, but Butler is as solid as they've ever been. Even so, UTEP is underseeded and this should be close all the way.

Best Potential Game (Late Rounds): 1) Syracuse vs. 2) Kansas State. Defensive intensity out the wazoo, with Cuse's fabled zone and the Wildcats ferocious, Frank Martin-mimicing pressure.

Cinderella: 12) UTEP. I don't think it'll happen, but they've got the best chance of any low seed to win 2 games.

Sleeper: 6) Xavier. As you'll grow to learn, I love the A-10 teams - all are underrated and all could make deep tourney runs. Don't sleep on 'em (HA!). Don't forget that Xavier has been here before as well, they've become a regular in the sweet sixteen, even making an elite 8 run a few years back. Don't be surprised when they do it again.

Picks:

Syracuse over Vermont

Florida St. over Gonzaga

Butler over UTEP

Vanderbilt over Murray St.

Xavier over Minnesota

Pitt over Oakland

BYU over Florida

Kansas St. over North Texas

Syracuse over Florida St.

Vanderbilt over Butler

Xavier over Pitt

BYU over Kansas St.

Syracuse over Vanderbilt

Xavier over BYU

Winner: Syracuse. Even before it was announced that Onuaku would return, the Orange looked to be the favorite here. Their zone will still be potent, and they have one of the easier roads of any 1 seed. And if Andy Rautins gets hot, he can carry them through rough patches.

EAST REGION

Best Game (First Round): 6) Marquette vs. 11) Washington. Clemson-Missouri and Temple-Cornell could easily fill this spot as well, but with the way Marquette's season has been, it would be shocking if this didn't go down to the wire.

Best Potential Game (Late Rounds): 1) Kentucky vs. 2) West Virginia. Temple might just get in the way, and the potential of a Kentucky-Temple sweet 16 game ought to terrify Wildcat fans, but if the Cats and Mountaineers locked up, the NBA-level talent on the floor would outflank almost any other potential tournament matchup.

Cinderella: 11) Washington. They needed to win the Pac Ten tourney to make it in, but Quincy Pondexter can lead the surprisingly talented Huskies to the sweet sixteen, bringing back memories of 1998, when also 11-th seeded Washington stayed for the second weekend before falling to Richard Hamilton and Connecticut in one of the most memorable sequences in tournament history.

Sleeper: 5) Temple. Owls are underseeded, underrated, and just might crash the final four, riding the back of some tremendous defense. Watch out, Kentucky.

Picks:

Kentucky over E. Tennessee St.

Texas over Wake Forest

Temple over Cornell

Wisconsin over Wofford

Washington over Marquette

New Mexico over Montana

Clemson over Missouri

West Virginia over Morgan St.

Kentucky over Texas

Temple over Wisconsin

New Mexico over Washington

West Virginia over Clemson

Temple over Kentucky

West Virginia over New Mexico

Winner: West Virginia. DeSean Butler is as clutch as they come, and the Mountaineers proved in the Big East tourney that they can win games in the 50's, as a game with Temple would likely be.

SOUTH REGION

Best Game (First Round): 5) Texas A&M vs. 12) Utah St. Good coaching matchup means a well-played, close affair.

Best Potential Game (Late Rounds): 7) Richmond vs. 2) Villanova. Don't laugh - this one would feature great guard play and potentially a frenetic pace.

Cinderella: 13) Siena. Why they got a 13 seed I have no idea (they were worthy of an at-large had they lost their conference tourney). The nucleus who won first round games two years running is back, and a sweet sixteen run is there for the taking, with slumping Purdue and the winner of the Aggie Bowl on deck.

Sleeper: 6) Notre Dame. Richmond would qualify as well, but the Irish figure to go deeper. Their only loss since they went old-school and started milking every second of shot clock was in the Big East final, and Luke Harangody is only getting healthier. He has the potential to be one of the tourney's dominant forces, and the Irish have the shooters to eke out close games.

Picks:

Duke over Arkansas-PB

Louisville over California

Utah State over Texas A&M

Siena over Purdue

Notre Dame over Old Dominion

Baylor over Sam Houston St.

Richmond over St. Mary's

Villanova over Robert Morris

Duke over Louisville

Siena over Utah State

Notre Dame over Baylor

Richmond over Villanova

Duke over Siena

Notre Dame over Richmond

Winner: Notre Dame. Snail ball continues working as the Irish limit possessions and frustrate opponents on an unlikely final four run.

FINAL FOUR

Picks:

Ohio State over Syracuse

West Virginia over Notre Dame

Winner: Ohio State. In a Final Four featuring 3 Big East teams, the one Big Ten entry wins in Big Ten country, and Evan Turner parlays a 22-11-8 average into a tournament MVP, outdueling DeSean Butler in the final.

Disagree? Comment on it and we'll see who's right. Just remember that I've already taken on Joe Lunardi and fared quite nicely :)