Sunday, March 14, 2010

Freshman Fifteen Bracketology

I'm back!

I'm not sure how much posting I'll be able to do over the course of the next few weeks, but I'll give it a shot. As always, I promise bold, flawed predictions and mediocre results. Yet you keep reading!

It's that time of year when a college football fan's fancy turns to the hardwood. Spring is in the air, the word 'bubble' is being overused, and my favorite day in all of sports is here: Selection Sunday. You can have Super Sunday, the first day of baseball season, New Year's Day, and all the others. For a sports geek, Selection Sunday is it. For years as a child, I'd spend the afternoon drawing up brackets that I'd feverishly copy into as the brackets were unveiled, then make my predictions immediately. No days of research and listening to what everyone else thinks - I make my picks early and stick to them. Usually to terrible results. And recently Selection Sunday for me has meant bracketology - seeing how close to the real thing I can get. It's all the rage these days, you should try it.

Before showing you my best guess, I should mention that until this past week, I don't think I watched a complete college basketball game all season. And I haven't been on any other bracketology sites, I've tried to keep unstained from others' opinion. What follows may be incredibly close or incredibly laughable. I've done minimal research, spent way too much brain power throughout the usual activities of my day, and taken some wild guesses.

Also before we get started - a few disclaimers and comments.

1) It's a weird bubble this year. At the beginning of the week it seemed huge - much larger than normal - but also very weak. There are some soft teams who will make this field, and it's probably a good thing that several teams stole bids this year, mercifully sparing the likes of Mississippi and Virginia Tech from a first round thrashing.

2) On Mississippi State: they're the last team in for me right now. A win tomorrow likely steps them up from a 12 to a 10 seed. A decent loss and they remain. A blowout loss and they get leapfrogged by Illinois, my first team out.

3) On Minnesota. To me, they've done enough to lock up a bid regardless of what happens in the Big Ten Championship game. A win moves them up to a 10 seed.

4) Due to bracket rules, Texas and Louisville were forced to swap. Texas's true seed would be 7, Louisville's 8.

5) My last 4 in: Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Florida, and Mississippi State.
My first 4 out: Illinois, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Utah State.

6) Kansas is the overall #1 seed, followed by Kentucky, Syracuse, and West Virginia.

7) In my bracket, the MIDWEST and EAST would be one side; the WEST and SOUTH the other.

8) Syracuse is in the West rather than the East (where they should be) because they're designated the "host university" of the East Regionals, held in Syracuse, NY. As such, they cannot be placed in that region.

And here we go. If I end up with 64 of 65, and all of the teams within 2 seed lines, one direction or the other, of my prediction, I'll consider it a rousing success. Eat your heart out, Joe Lunardi.

MIDWEST REGION
1) Kansas v. 16) Lehigh
8) UNLV v. 9) Old Dominion
5) Maryland v. 12) Mississippi State
4) Villanova v. 13) Murray State

6) Butler v. 11) UTEP
3) Tennessee v. 14) North Texas
7) Marquette v. 10) Wake Forest
2) Purdue v. 15) Sam Houston State


EAST REGION
1) West Virginia v. 16) East Tennessee State
8) Texas v. 9) San Diego State
5) Vanderbilt v. 12) Minnesota
4) Temple v. 13) Wofford

6) Gonzaga v. 11) Washington
3) New Mexico v. 14) Montana
7) Louisville v. 10) Missouri
2) Duke v. 15) Morgan State


WEST REGION
1) Syracuse v. 16) Robert Morris
8) California v. 9) Clemson
5) BYU v. 12) Florida
4) Texas A&M v. 13) Houston

6) Notre Dame v. 11) Georgia Tech
3) Baylor v. 14) Ohio
7) Xavier v. 10) St. Mary's
2) Ohio State v. 15) Vermont


SOUTH REGION
1) Kentucky v. 16) Winthrop OR Arkansas-Pine Bluff (opening round matchup)
8) Northern Iowa v. 9) Oklahoma State
5) Michigan State v. 12) Cornell
4) Pittsburgh v. 13) New Mexico State

6) Wisconsin v. 11) Siena
3) Georgetown v. 14) Oakland
7) Richmond v. 10) Florida State
2) Kansas State v. 15) UC Santa Barbara


Next: my predictions from the actual bracket, posted sometime before the tourney tips-off Thursday afternoon. Stay tuned.

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