The Shot Heard Round The (College Athletics) World

In the pre-dawn hours of April 19, 1775, a motley group of militiamen from Massachusetts formed ranks in the town of Lexington, awaiting the march of the British Army. Paul Revere's midnight ride had stirred them from their beds, and what had long been talked about, theorized, even feared, was inevitable. As day broke, the Redcoats arrived, vastly outnumbering the colonists, and the two lines stood opposite each other, guns at the ready. Tension rose. Would the colonists lay down their arms? Would this pass without incident? Then, out of the silence rang a rifle blast. To this day no one knows from who's gun it came. But in the moments and days after that surprise shot, that shot heard 'round the world, a conflict ensued that would change the structure of the world. That, of course, was the beginning of the War of American Revolution.

Today a similar shot was fired, this one also from an unlikely source. The Pac-10 and Colorado announced a formal agreement for the Buffaloes to join the conference, touching off what is sure to be a fascinating and epic few months, as the War of Conference Expansion is officially underway. In the months before the American Revolution there had been intense buildup - storing away ammunition, secret meetings and plans, rumors of conflict - but no shots were fired. Before Lexington there was no war. It was all talk. Same with the conference realignment conflict. Before today, it was mostly talk. Lots of rumors and secret meetings and PR spin. Sure, the Big Ten set it all in motion with the announcement that they intended to expand within 18 months. But it was all talk - the schools who were reportedly approached were not yet given formal offers to join. Then came the sudden buildup of ammunition from the Pacific Coast. Early this week, rumors began to swirl that the Pac-10 intended to expand, and that 6 Big 12 teams were on their list. The Big 12 tried to quell the rumors, claiming that their conference would remain intact. Then it was rumored that the Big 12 gave Nebraska and Missouri an ultimatum: give us a Friday answer or give us death! The talk was fast and furious, but no shots were formally fired - yet.

Then news broke today about Colorado, the most unlikely of schools to be the touchpoint of the greatest college athletics battle of all time. Now, everyone is in play. The action will come fast and furious, and there are any number of possibilities of what the Division 1 landscape will look like a year from now. Anyone making a suggestion at who will be in what conference is spouting pure speculation.

It would seem that there are certain schools who are untouchable when it comes to the realignment game, but if Texas - the top grossing school in the land - is in play, then certainly everyone else is too. Florida, LSU, Alabama - surely they'd not leave the SEC, right? Probably not, but no one expected the Pac Ten to jump in and poach half the Big 12 either. Don't count any possibility out. I even saw a headline claiming a 20-team Big Ten isn't out of the question.

So while it would be foolish and eventually embarrassing to predict who will go where, all we can do is point who the potential winners and losers in all this will be.

Winners

The Pac-10

If the Pac Ten does as it's rumored that they will, and nabs the Big 12 South (minus Baylor) to go along with Colorado, the revenue and multi-sport power they'll wield will surpass even the mighty SEC. They'd control the TV markets of Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, San Francisco, Seattle, and San Diego. They'd add two of the most powerful names in college football (the Horns and Sooners). They'd be virtually unrivaled geographically, while the SEC has the ACC housefly to swat at. Their recruiting base would cover everything west of the Mississippi. Even if they're unsuccessful at grabbing the Big 12 powers, they have loads of options in creating a 16 team superconference: Boise State, Utah, BYU, TCU, Houston - the strongest mid-major programs all lie in the west, and all have the potential for tremendous growth. It wouldn't be long before their facilities, and by reciprocation, their recruiting cache, would match all the power programs.

The SEC

Even though the SEC has been eerily silent amid all this, you have to think the conference bigwigs are cooking up a plan, and that they'll act quickly. This is the conference that set off the first wave of realignment back in the early 90's. If other leagues go to 16, you know they will too. And they have some massive programs just off their geographic radar who'd love to jump into the best conference in the land. They may even take a run at Texas and Oklahoma before the Pac Ten can formalize their play. Plus, the other Texas schools are still, at least right now, there for the picking. And Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech, even West Virginia and Virginia Tech are all either already in, or one state removed from, an SEC state. You know that the SEC will end up on top of the pile when this is all over. It's just a matter of who they get and when.

The Mountain West

Imagine this scenario: the six Big 12 teams rumored do jump to the Pac Ten. Nebraska, as is reported, heads to the Big Ten. That leaves 5 former Big 12 teams out to dry. One - Missouri - has been hinted as a Big Ten prize, although word is that their affection has cooled lately. The rest will be in panic mode, looking to get into a conference as fast as they can. We know the Big Ten and SEC won't go for Iowa State or Baylor. Kansas and Kansas State may be on those conference's radar, considering the basketball prestige the Jayhawks would bring. But at it's core this is about money, which means it's about football, and there are loads of other programs who'd be in line before the Kansas schools in joining either the Big Ten or the SEC. The ACC is possible, but it would be a geography nightmare. Enter the Mountain West. In spite of their decision not to pursue Boise State this week, a suddenly open spot at the BCS table would all but force their hand at expansion. One would assume they'd jump at the chance to grab whatever Big 12 scraps are left, then reverse field with Boise, and potentially go after a school like Houston, Fresno State, or Memphis (another basketball power to compete with Kansas) to round out a superconference. And they'd have the capital to demand the Big Twelve's now-vacant BCS automatic bid. The Mountain West may stand the most to gain in all this.

Notre Dame

Let's face it, Notre Dame has been living under a delusion in thinking they can make it as a football independent. The Irish haven't been relevant since a few years after the first wave of realignment, when independents became a thing of the past. Notre Dame has just been too stubborn, or arrogant, to admit it. They may be able to make money, but until they get in a conference, their presence on the national scene will be more a sideshow than a main act. What this arms race will do is force their hand - the Big East will likely dissolve, sending Notre Dame's other sports up a creek - and they'll, however reluctantly, join a major conference. And by dumb luck, they'll thrive.

Temple

Yes, Temple. They're in the heart of Philadelphia, the #4 media market in the country. They're certainly not going to the Big Ten or the SEC, but the ACC isn't out of the question. If the Florida schools go, and a few others are taken along with them, the ACC will be looking at picking up the remaining Big East schools, plus potentially Temple, who would give them a foothold in the Philadelphia market, and be another solid basketball program to boot. And if everything unfolds as it could, the ACC will end up thinking basketball first. If that doesn't pan out, Temple would certainly be invited to whatever new iteration of the Big East would exist for basketball.

Losers

The Big Ten

Even though they got the ball rolling by opening up expansion talks, they're moving at a snail's pace, and if this week's moves by the Pac Ten are any indication, they'll quickly be passed by. The university presidents have a multi-step system schools will be forced through in order to gain entry, and they seem too tied to taking their time and drawing everything out. Some of the schools on their wish list could be off the board by the time they are ready to make a move. Plus, some of the schools the Big Ten is looking at are by no means athletic powerhouses. Nebraska is, but next on their list is reportedly Rutgers, who aren't going to make waves anytime soon. Also mentioned are Missouri (6 on a scale of 10), Syracuse (6, but only for basketball), Pitt (8), Maryland (7), and Connecticut (6, like Syracuse). Notre Dame is the only 10 on the list, and the Big Ten might be forced to act on some of these other schools before Notre Dame is ready to admit independent defeat. It looks like the Big Ten will gain academic strength, but they'll become somewhat of a second-class citizen in athletics.

Big East Basketball

It seems inevitable that the Big East will not survive. The SEC, Big Ten, and ACC all stand to grab teams from the Big East, meaning the mightiest basketball conference in the land will all but dissolve. With 9 teams likely to leave (the 8 football schools plus Notre Dame), the Big East will be forced into being a basketball only league, with all the most powerful (and small) basketball-first school. They'd go after most of the Atlantic 10 - Temple, Xavier, Dayton, UMass, etc., and survive, but the glory days would be long gone.

Kansas

The Kansas AD resigned today, which could indicate an avoidance of the angst that is to come in Lawrence. The Jayhawk basketball program is one of the top 3 in the country, yet because football is king, they'll either be without a conference affiliation, or end in the Mountain West or Conference USA. Hardly a place to shine. The best scenario is for the Big Ten or ACC to consider them.

Notre Dame

The Irish could stumble into a big win, or could walk proudly into a big loss. If they deem their football independence an utmost priority, the rest of their sports will suffer. Not to mention the fact that the distance between Notre Dame football and the rest of the power programs will widen. Notre Dame would lose even more relevance if they try to hold on to their precious "tradition".

Neutral

The ACC

It seems that the ACC is the only conference with little to gain or lose. No one is going to make a run at Duke or North Carolina (though the Tar Heels may be an attractive gain for the SEC), so they're not likely to lose basketball power, even if they lose 5 or 6 members. And no one is mistaking ACC football for the NFC East, so whoever they end up with in football - be it Big East leftovers or some of the more attractive Conference USA programs (Memphis, Central Florida, Southern Miss) - would basically be a push, or a basketball gain to offset the football loss.

Whatever happens, it will be fascinating, and we'll look back to this day - June 10, 2010 - as the day the first real shot was fired. Nebraska will likely declare their intentions tomorrow, and then the dam will burst wide open. It should be fun.