No, I'm not talking about Christmas season. Certainly the celebration of the birth of the Messiah is the most wonderful time of year, but I'm speaking in the college football context. And in this realm, rivalry week is the very best it gets. It's only fitting that most major rivalries are played around Thanksgiving - I, for one, am thankful for these titanic, traditional grudgematches.
More than any other sport, college football is built upon rivalry. No matter what happens, you can always count on the beautiful kaleidoscope of contrasting uniforms set against an angry late autumn landscape: Auburn-Alabama, Michigan-Ohio State, Texas-Texas A&M, and on and on. With only 12 games per season, even the worst can be turned around with a season-ending conquest of your traditional rival. Just think - of all the games played by most major college football programs, at least 1 out of every 12 has been played against the team they consider their opposite. And all happen on the same weekend every year.
I love the fact that we get these games spaced over 3 days. Days filled with turkey, stuffing, napping, and football. Fantastic.
But before any further eloquent waxing about a game, let's take this Thanksgiving moment to reflect on all there is to be thankful for. Set against what many people in the world endure - little food, unclean water, unsanitary living conditions, little access to basic medical care - we have ample reason to give thanks. Listing it all out would fill reams of paper.
As for me, I'm thankful for my wonderful wife and daughter, for a warm home and good food, for the sweet nectar of Coca-Cola, for my fair alma mater, for the dozens and dozens of people I consider good friends, for the poetic lyrics and music woven by Bruce Springsteen, for competition (not just of the football variety), for a family who loves and cares for me, for my free iPhone 3G, for the opportunity to work at something I love and play at hobbies I enjoy greatly as well.
Most of all, I'm thankful for my Savior, Jesus Christ. At the risk of sounding like the cliched athlete who mentions Jesus first in postgame interviews (something I highly respect), He's everything to me. I only wish I lived more like that were true! Without Him, I'd be lost, purposeless, living in a constant cycle of decay and death, just wasting away. Sure, life is no less difficult, but far more joyous, meaningful, and eternal. He's great, and I hope you know Him too.
Now, on to the comparative triviality of college football, and the rivalries that make it so fun...
1. Michigan State at Penn State
OK, so this isn't a classic, old-time rivalry; nor has it become a rivalry in any sense of the word since the Big Ten stuck the Spartans and Lions together at the end of the yearly schedule. It's contrived and boring - the most blood-stirring part of it is the actual blood being stirred at the annual student blood drive pitting Penn State students against those from East Lansing. The added drama this game might have held this year was drained earlier in the week, when JoePa mentioned that he'd be back next year. But for Michigan State, this game is enormous. The Spartans have an outside shot at the Big Ten crown, though they've been sliding steadily downward for the last month. After their near loss at home last week against Purdue, they appear ripe for the picking. Matt McGloin has given the Lions a bit of extra juice, and the home field advantage should tilt this game in favor of Penn State. And PSU has owned the Spartans since joining the Big Ten, often the icing on the cake of Michigan State's traditional late-season implosion. That hasn't happened this year (yet), but it's been close.
Penn State 27, Michigan State 26
2. Auburn at Alabama
Standing in stark contrast to that pulseless "rivalry" is this one: the Iron Bowl. Auburn-Alabama is perhaps the most intense, venom-filled, hard-hitting one of all (though fans of the next one on the list will beg to differ). It's set apart by the fact that it's an in-state feud, one that effectively shuts down all life in Dixie. And in the SEC, everything is bigger. Auburn comes in as the underdog, in spite of their consistent proving of the naysayers, myself included, wrong all year. The Tigers have been tested, but I don't think they've faced anyone quite as strong as the Crimson Tide. Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and the bunch will hammer Auburn's beleaguered defense as much as anyone they've faced thus far. If Alabama can garner enough defense to slow down the Cam Newton express, or if it somehow derails itself before Friday, the Crimson Tide has a great chance to win. Besides, if Auburn does win I have a feeling it'll be revoked in due time. This could turn out to be the game of the year, a shootout in a rivalry accustomed to defense and the running game - make sure you avoid the shopping malls and department stores Friday afternoon so you can tune in to this one.
Alabama 34, Auburn 31
3. Michigan at Ohio State
Ohio State fans have a conundrum. Do they root for a Buckeye blowout, knowing full well that in doing so they may be inadvertently cheering on Rich Rodriguez's departure and the Wolverine's hiring a new coach who's better suited to compete with Ohio State. Or do they fall on their sword, hope for a close game, a decent enough Michigan performance to keep RichRod, their whipping boy, around at least one more year. Sleepless nights are happening right now all across Ohio over this agonizing decision.
Ohio State 45, Michigan 21
4. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Without much fanfare, Oklahoma State has the inside track at surprise team of the year. I believe it was last year that I tabbed the Cowboys as my pick to make the BCS title game, and we all know how that turned out. Little did we know that this year would be the Cowboys year to make a run. They need tons of help, but a leap from #9 to #2 in 2 weeks isn't impossible. Beating the Sooners in this year's edition of Bedlam would be a healthy start.
Oklahoma State 27, Oklahoma 23
5. Texas A&M at Texas
Thanksgiving night brings this little gem, as the Longhorns are forced to beat their Lone Star rival just to earn a postseason berth. For the first time in perhaps a decade and a half, the Aggies are the team to beat in this game. It's a role they're not used to, and they'd better hope they do a better job as the favorite than Texas has done. The Aggies have risen from the dregs of mediocrity more then once to take down a supposedly powerful Longhorn team. I don't see the underdog winning this one though. Texas has been downright pathetic, at home as much as away, and the Aggies have unearthed a defense in College Station. Wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska, and a continual improvement from game one through game eleven has me sold.
Texas A&M 19, Texas 13
6. Florida at Florida State
Once the yearly highlight of rivalry weekend, this game has hit it's lowest point in years. Florida comes in unranked with 4 losses, while Florida State isn't turning any heads. The Seminoles even need help from Maryland to win the lowly ACC Atlantic. Gone are the days when both teams entering this game in the top 5 was a given. Based purely on speculation, I'm picking Florida. I'll use the excuse that the SEC is a ton stronger than the ACC, though I'll double back on that logic later. Sure, the Gators have at times been horrid offensively, but though the Seminole defense is statistically good, they're not impenetrable.
Florida 17, Florida State 14
7. South Carolina at Clemson
Might as well double back on that logic now. Here's why Clemson wins this game. They've been frisky all year - remember that they shut Auburn out for a half, then took a dumb penalty on an OT field goal, giving Auburn the win. How the complexion of this season would be different if that result were reversed! They have a pretty stout defense and could pose problems from Stephen Garcia. This rivalry is prone to underdog upheavals. And finally, the Gamecocks have what they want - a berth in the SEC Championship game, the program's first ever. It's a classic letdown situation - South Carolina simply has bigger fish to fry.
Clemson 20, South Carolina 16
8. Arizona at Oregon
Another non-rivalry, but this series has been entertaining of late. In 2007, Oregon rolled into Arizona with a national title in their sights, only to see Heisman candidate Dennis Dixon go down as the Wildcats crushed the heavily favored Ducks. Last year was an overtime thriller. Both those games, however, were in Tucson. Unless LaMichael James and Darron Thomas are both knocked out of the game, another Duck scare is unlikely.
Oregon 41, Arizona 31
9. Northwestern at Wisconsin
Yes, this isn't a top-notch rivalry, but it's a game carrying a lot of importance. A Wisconsin win almost guarantees them a Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl berth, against Oregon if it slips and Stanford if it doesn't. It shouldn't be close, with Dan Persa going down a few weeks ago and Northwestern's resulting offensive tail spin.
Wisconsin 38, Northwestern 20
10. Boise State at Nevada
The closest thing the WAC has to a rivalry. Nevada is the only conference team who's come close to touching Boise in recent years, and in spite of the obvious talent gap this year might be their best shot at winning one. It's easily the biggest game in program history, and senior QB Colin Kaepernick has the opportunity to cement his legacy as the best QB in Wolf Pack history. Heady stuff, which often means an epic failure. Don't be surprised if Nevada can't corral their emotions and stumbles their way into the game with dumb mistakes and overenergetic play. If so, the Broncos will pounce and it could get ugly.
Boise State 42, Nevada 31
11. Georgia Tech at Georgia
The Yellow Jackets would love nothing more than to eliminate their rival from a bowl game opportunity in this year's version of "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate", the best title any rivalry can claim. But Georgia Tech isn't the powerhouse some thought they might be, and Georgia has enough in the tank to outhit and outplay them.
Georgia 24, Georgia Tech 17
12. LSU at Arkansas
Almost forgot about this top-15 clash in Little Rock. I've run out of things to say about the shenanigans of Les Miles, I just know that this game will be close, and it probably will be zany.
Arkansas 35, LSU 32
13. West Virginia at Pittsburgh
Ah, the Backyard Brawl. Another great rivalry name, another matchup of mediocre teams, one of whom will likely take a BCS bowl slot from a far more worthy team. Pitt can all but clinch the conference with a win, which they should do. If history holds, this game will be intense and low-scoring, and the underdog will sneak away with a win. It's a toss-up, but I'll go with the Mountaineers because of how sweet the Nike Pro Combat Unis they'll don on Friday are.
West Virginia 14, Pittsburgh 13
14. Notre Dame at USC
Admirably, Notre Dame has responded to its mid-season stumble and the tragedy that struck the program with resilience. They've played their best football in the past few weeks, and might be showing signs that Brian Kelly was indeed the right choice. But they're not quite there yet, and USC has absolutely dominated this rivalry when its played in the Coliseum. And everywhere else, for that matter.
USC 33, Notre Dame 24
15. N.C. State at Maryland
Again, not a rivalry game, but one with a fair amount of importance. N.C. State earns a berth in the ACC Championship with a victory, and Russell Wilson is the guy who can take them there. In him, the Wolfpack have a player that truly changes the game. He's clearly the best player on the field in this contest, and that's reason enough to take N.C. State.
N.C. State 27, Maryland 17
Bonus rivalry picks, because rivalry week can't handle just 15!
16. Utah 31, BYU 14
17. Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 20
18. Nebraska 23, Colorado 20
19. Missouri 41, Kansas 21
20. Mississippi 21, Mississippi State 17
And lastly, another very happy Thanksgiving to you. Remember to give thanks for the many blessings you have, and remember those less fortunate - in prayer, in giving, in simply the giving of respect and dignity. Have a great holiday!
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Week 12: A Dud Firework
The college football season could easily be likened to a fireworks display: lots of loud noises, sparkling sights, unexpected surprises that draw 'oohs' and 'aahs', and a rousing finale that often leaves you breathless and rattled. But like many fireworks displays, there can be a few duds that make it off the launch pad. You know the ones. You hear the cannon shot pump the rocket into the air, wait for a silent few seconds in anticipation of the sound and the light, then only hear a faint screech tailing off into the night, perhaps with a puff of smoke.
This week is shaping up as the potential dud in the college football fireworks display. The top three teams are all idle, and the fourth, Boise State, faces another minor hurdle in the sprint to another undefeated season. The closest we come to marquee games are Ohio State at Iowa (far more compelling even just a week ago), Nebraska at Texas A&M (eh), and Virginia Tech at Miami (hard to get jacked up over the ACC). Perhaps we can look at it as the calm before the storm, or the slight lull before the big finale.
Then again, this is college football, and just when a weekend looks completely unappealing, it turns on you, providing the most entertaining football of the season. Maybe the also-rans can bring us some memorable moments, playing more for pride and a later in December bowl instead of a national title shot.
1. Ohio State at Iowa
The season Iowa looked to have when this whole shebang kicked off has deconstructed quickly and rudely. The Hawkeyes faced their toughest foes at home, only they honked one of those games, to Wisconsin, and managed to lose to lesser teams, Arizona and Northwestern, on the road. Will they fold up the tent or come out with a chip on their shoulder when the Buckeyes come calling? The Hawkeyes are balanced, have lost by a TD or less in each of their 3 losses, and the Buckeyes haven't set the world on fire. They're good, but as a fairly mediocre Penn State team showed in the first half last Saturday, they're beatable. I think Iowa brings some fire and rallies around last year's heartbreaking loss in Columbus. They'd love to be the ones who spoil Ohio State's Big Ten title shot this time around.
Iowa 23, Ohio State 20
2. Nebraska at Texas A&M
No defense = problem for the Aggies. They've had a nice surge lately, but they're not worthy of the #18 ranking. They'll find ways to move the ball on offense, but a few turnovers and inability to stop Nebraska's run game will do them in.
Nebraska 37, Texas A&M 28
3. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
Was I a week early on my prediction of a Hokie stumble? They dispatched North Carolina pretty nicely. I can't shake the notion that they'll lose again, but they're one of the hottest teams in the nation right now. The ACC is clearly Virginia Tech's to lose. Miami won't get in their way.
Virginia Tech 27, Miami (FL) 17
4. Arkansas at Mississippi State
Mississippi State's fall back to reality continues.
Arkansas 35, Mississippi State 17
5. Florida State at Maryland
Don't look now, but Maryland is just 2 wins away from winning the ACC Atlantic. Not bad for a team many picked last in the conference. They've been winning with far more defense than offense, with both their passing and running game hovering in the 80's nationally. But they've steadily improved as the season's wore on, posting over 40 points in 2 of their last 3. After a solid midseason stretch Florida State has appeared very vulnerable of late, losing tight games to both North Carolina and N.C. State and squeaking by Clemson. At night, at Maryland, with the Terps as juiced as they've been in years, they'll continue to stumble. Maryland stakes their case as the surprise team of the year with an upset win.
Maryland 27, Florida State 23
6. Oklahoma at Baylor
Wouldn't it be something if Baylor beat Texas and Oklahoma in the same season. That would immediately qualify for "best season in school history", and DVD sales would start picking up in Waco bookstores. But it's not gonna happen. The Sooners bring a lot more swagger and talent than Texas did, something not even the Bears home field advantage will overcome.
Oklahoma 45, Baylor 31
7. Illinois vs. Northwestern
You know it's a dud week when Gameday packs the truck up for Illinois-Northwestern. Sure, there's the Wrigley Field angle (sidenote: college football will be played in both Wrigley and Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Time warp!), but that's just a scraping for headlines. The Illinois kids will love it, but the show might get the lowest ratings of the year. These two are actually fairly frisky, both tripping up a few big names as the year's gone by. The biggest question is how badly the loss of Dan Persa will affect Northwestern's offense. He's a tough guy to replace, but Pat Fitzgerald knows how to bring the best out of his players. Another silent 9-win season could await the folks in Evanston.
Northwestern 20, Illinois 14
8. N.C. State at North Carolina
Nothing informed or interesting to say about this one. Hey, did you know these two schools are from the same Metropolitan Statistical Area, as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget?
North Carolina 30, N.C. State 27
9. Wisconsin at Michigan
Sadly, Michigan's bowl drought has ended. Let's hold a moment of silence.
Now, let's watch with glee as the Badgers unleash havoc on the hapless Wolverine defense!
Wisconsin 49, Michigan 28
10. Stanford at California
Cal nearly upended Oregon last week, only to have the Ducks slow their blur to a crawl, mercilessly hammering the Golden Bears into submission with a game ending drive that served as a bruising exhibition on what it means to shut a game down. It'll be tough for Cal to get revved back up fully for this one, as the always-physical Stanford Cardinal come crashing into town. It is the Big Game, though, and strange things have happened before. But I don't predict strange things; I pick logical outcomes.
Stanford 22, California 16
11. USC at Oregon State
Losing James Rodgers effectively killed Oregon State's season, and perhaps those of TCU and Boise State as well. With the Beavers fade into obscurity nearly complete, the respect and computer numbers of the Horned Frogs and Broncos are going with it. Even though USC always seems to struggle in Corvallis, it's hard to pick Oregon State against anyone right now.
USC 33, Oregon State 17
12. Fresno State at Boise State
This game makes the list only because it's a slim week. But wouldn't it make for great theater if Pat Hill and his Bulldogs, once the carriers of the "Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime" mantra, revived it for a road game in their own conference. You know the envy has to fester deep in Fresno hearts - they were supposed to be the WAC's elite achievers!
Boise State 42, Fresno State 21
13. Pittsburgh at South Florida
Oh the Big East. Could there have been a major conference with a worse season than this Big East campaign? Basketball is here two months too late.
Pittsburgh 28, South Florida 24
14. Utah at San Diego State
Have these teams reversed places in the last two weeks, or what? Not long ago Utah was in the top 5, but an embarrassing home loss to TCU and an equally embarrassing loss at Notre Dame have killed that notion. San Diego State, meanwhile, has emerged as the MWC's real #2 team, pushing TCU to the limit last week after a string of conference wins. It's hard to imagine these trends shifting so dramatically this week.
San Diego State 24, Utah 17
15. Mississippi at LSU
Is this what we're left with? Is this the game CBS pegged as their national telecast? Yes, Les Miles always finds ways to make things interesting, but Mississippi did lose to Jacksonville State earlier this year. Not even the presence of Jeremiah Masoli can brighten things up. LSU's defense keeps this game ugly and boring.
LSU 27, Mississippi 10
Next week: rivalry week ushers in the first part of this season's grand finale. Turkey, football, tradition, and many, many blessings await!
This week is shaping up as the potential dud in the college football fireworks display. The top three teams are all idle, and the fourth, Boise State, faces another minor hurdle in the sprint to another undefeated season. The closest we come to marquee games are Ohio State at Iowa (far more compelling even just a week ago), Nebraska at Texas A&M (eh), and Virginia Tech at Miami (hard to get jacked up over the ACC). Perhaps we can look at it as the calm before the storm, or the slight lull before the big finale.
Then again, this is college football, and just when a weekend looks completely unappealing, it turns on you, providing the most entertaining football of the season. Maybe the also-rans can bring us some memorable moments, playing more for pride and a later in December bowl instead of a national title shot.
1. Ohio State at Iowa
The season Iowa looked to have when this whole shebang kicked off has deconstructed quickly and rudely. The Hawkeyes faced their toughest foes at home, only they honked one of those games, to Wisconsin, and managed to lose to lesser teams, Arizona and Northwestern, on the road. Will they fold up the tent or come out with a chip on their shoulder when the Buckeyes come calling? The Hawkeyes are balanced, have lost by a TD or less in each of their 3 losses, and the Buckeyes haven't set the world on fire. They're good, but as a fairly mediocre Penn State team showed in the first half last Saturday, they're beatable. I think Iowa brings some fire and rallies around last year's heartbreaking loss in Columbus. They'd love to be the ones who spoil Ohio State's Big Ten title shot this time around.
Iowa 23, Ohio State 20
2. Nebraska at Texas A&M
No defense = problem for the Aggies. They've had a nice surge lately, but they're not worthy of the #18 ranking. They'll find ways to move the ball on offense, but a few turnovers and inability to stop Nebraska's run game will do them in.
Nebraska 37, Texas A&M 28
3. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
Was I a week early on my prediction of a Hokie stumble? They dispatched North Carolina pretty nicely. I can't shake the notion that they'll lose again, but they're one of the hottest teams in the nation right now. The ACC is clearly Virginia Tech's to lose. Miami won't get in their way.
Virginia Tech 27, Miami (FL) 17
4. Arkansas at Mississippi State
Mississippi State's fall back to reality continues.
Arkansas 35, Mississippi State 17
5. Florida State at Maryland
Don't look now, but Maryland is just 2 wins away from winning the ACC Atlantic. Not bad for a team many picked last in the conference. They've been winning with far more defense than offense, with both their passing and running game hovering in the 80's nationally. But they've steadily improved as the season's wore on, posting over 40 points in 2 of their last 3. After a solid midseason stretch Florida State has appeared very vulnerable of late, losing tight games to both North Carolina and N.C. State and squeaking by Clemson. At night, at Maryland, with the Terps as juiced as they've been in years, they'll continue to stumble. Maryland stakes their case as the surprise team of the year with an upset win.
Maryland 27, Florida State 23
6. Oklahoma at Baylor
Wouldn't it be something if Baylor beat Texas and Oklahoma in the same season. That would immediately qualify for "best season in school history", and DVD sales would start picking up in Waco bookstores. But it's not gonna happen. The Sooners bring a lot more swagger and talent than Texas did, something not even the Bears home field advantage will overcome.
Oklahoma 45, Baylor 31
7. Illinois vs. Northwestern
You know it's a dud week when Gameday packs the truck up for Illinois-Northwestern. Sure, there's the Wrigley Field angle (sidenote: college football will be played in both Wrigley and Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Time warp!), but that's just a scraping for headlines. The Illinois kids will love it, but the show might get the lowest ratings of the year. These two are actually fairly frisky, both tripping up a few big names as the year's gone by. The biggest question is how badly the loss of Dan Persa will affect Northwestern's offense. He's a tough guy to replace, but Pat Fitzgerald knows how to bring the best out of his players. Another silent 9-win season could await the folks in Evanston.
Northwestern 20, Illinois 14
8. N.C. State at North Carolina
Nothing informed or interesting to say about this one. Hey, did you know these two schools are from the same Metropolitan Statistical Area, as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget?
North Carolina 30, N.C. State 27
9. Wisconsin at Michigan
Sadly, Michigan's bowl drought has ended. Let's hold a moment of silence.
Now, let's watch with glee as the Badgers unleash havoc on the hapless Wolverine defense!
Wisconsin 49, Michigan 28
10. Stanford at California
Cal nearly upended Oregon last week, only to have the Ducks slow their blur to a crawl, mercilessly hammering the Golden Bears into submission with a game ending drive that served as a bruising exhibition on what it means to shut a game down. It'll be tough for Cal to get revved back up fully for this one, as the always-physical Stanford Cardinal come crashing into town. It is the Big Game, though, and strange things have happened before. But I don't predict strange things; I pick logical outcomes.
Stanford 22, California 16
11. USC at Oregon State
Losing James Rodgers effectively killed Oregon State's season, and perhaps those of TCU and Boise State as well. With the Beavers fade into obscurity nearly complete, the respect and computer numbers of the Horned Frogs and Broncos are going with it. Even though USC always seems to struggle in Corvallis, it's hard to pick Oregon State against anyone right now.
USC 33, Oregon State 17
12. Fresno State at Boise State
This game makes the list only because it's a slim week. But wouldn't it make for great theater if Pat Hill and his Bulldogs, once the carriers of the "Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime" mantra, revived it for a road game in their own conference. You know the envy has to fester deep in Fresno hearts - they were supposed to be the WAC's elite achievers!
Boise State 42, Fresno State 21
13. Pittsburgh at South Florida
Oh the Big East. Could there have been a major conference with a worse season than this Big East campaign? Basketball is here two months too late.
Pittsburgh 28, South Florida 24
14. Utah at San Diego State
Have these teams reversed places in the last two weeks, or what? Not long ago Utah was in the top 5, but an embarrassing home loss to TCU and an equally embarrassing loss at Notre Dame have killed that notion. San Diego State, meanwhile, has emerged as the MWC's real #2 team, pushing TCU to the limit last week after a string of conference wins. It's hard to imagine these trends shifting so dramatically this week.
San Diego State 24, Utah 17
15. Mississippi at LSU
Is this what we're left with? Is this the game CBS pegged as their national telecast? Yes, Les Miles always finds ways to make things interesting, but Mississippi did lose to Jacksonville State earlier this year. Not even the presence of Jeremiah Masoli can brighten things up. LSU's defense keeps this game ugly and boring.
LSU 27, Mississippi 10
Next week: rivalry week ushers in the first part of this season's grand finale. Turkey, football, tradition, and many, many blessings await!
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Week 11: Rise of the Excludeds
I can't figure out a good way to refer to the schools who play in the conferences without automatic BCS qualification. The common reference is "non-AQ's", but that sounds bulky and weird, like you're referring to an outdated Army acronym. I've defaulted to "Non-BCS", but that's not even accurate. These teams can make the BCS, they're just given an intricate obstacle course to navigate first.
I've settled on "excludeds", which drives the spell checker crazy but does a fair job driving the point home. Like the little brother who's forced to stay inside while big bro and his buds play a mean game of tackle football out back, excludeds like TCU and Boise State won't get the establishment's hint. They want to play too. And they've got the game to hang.
It's time to recognize that these schools aren't little fish who happen to absentmindedly swim over to the big pond every once in awhile. They're legitimately budding national powerhouses. They just happen to reside in the WAC and MWC.
Here's the common argument against why TCU and Boise State (or Utah or Hawaii, or whoever it might be in a given year) shouldn't be considered a part of the national championship conversation: "If they played in the SEC of the Big 12, or even the ACC for that matter, they'd never run the table. The week-in, week-out rigors of major conference football would wear them down."
It sounds nice, and because it's hypothetical it's tough to argue against. But here are a few reasons why it doesn't hold water:
1. It's hypothetical. Anyone can spout off such a statement, but there is absolutely no way to prove it. That is, until next year, when Utah, a perennial powerhouse among the excludeds, makes the leap to the Pac-Ten. A year from now, when the Utes are firmly embroiled in the Pac-Ten title race, check back to this post as a reminder that at least one person saw it coming.
2. It's based on outdated source material. What I mean by that is, the argument plays on overall team depth. It's widely thought that major conference teams are deeper - recruiting hauls mean they're overloaded with talent and the guys on the bench would easily start for a Boise State or TCU. That may have been true 30 years ago, but in this day and age scholarship limits restrict the big schools from stockpiling they way they used to. More blue chip talent gets spread elsewhere - to places like Fort Worth and Boise. And the overall advancements in training and the quality of play in high schools across the country means that there are more good players now than ever. Again, this spills over to the benches of the excludeds. So they may not have the players the ubiquitous professional high school talent scouts blather about on the seeming dozens of recruit tracking sites, but they do have guys who can play. And they have a lot of them.
3. How often does a major conference team run the table these days? So you want to argue that the excludeds would invariably drop a game or two if they played an "SEC-style schedule". Fine. You're right, they probably would. But the last time I checked, Alabama, a team labeled as everyone's best heading into the season, has a 2 in the loss column. So how does that make them any different? Using that argument actually works against the arguer. It makes the excludeds equal to the big conference big boys, who, if they do manage to go unbeaten, do so more on luck and a few wise decisions than they do on overall skill. The difference between a 2-loss SEC team and a no-loss SEC team isn't that much - just watch Alabama-Auburn in 2 weeks for proof.
4. It ignores history. Once upon a time, much of the college football world resided in a peaceful co-existence of independent programs. As many as thirty programs were unaffiliated with a conference, and in this world several programs we now consider elite were able to rise from the morass and attain greatness. Florida State and Miami were once considered gnats, their constant buzzing about taking a place among the giants considered annoying talk to most. But persistence payed off, and the Hurricanes and Seminoles earned their place at the establishment table in the 70's and 80's. They were aided by the landscape of independence. They weren't tied to a conference that, either by perception or reality, weighed them down.
The biggest disadvantage Boise State and TCU have is the fact that they're affiliated in a conference. Their rise should be no different than that of Florida State, Miami, or any of the other programs who scrapped their way to prominence. But they carry the weight of perception. Because all the traditional or recently-anointed traditional powers have all clustered into the conference system that aids their own establishmentarianism, it's harder now for new powers to break in. We hear talk of "East Coast Bias", but perhaps the greatest media bias, one fueled by the college football system itself, is the universally-held viewpoint that non-BCS conferences are vastly inferior. There's no doubt that some level of inferiority exists, but it's not nearly as striking as we're led to believe. So when a team like TCU establishes itself on a much higher level above the rest of their conference, they aren't given the credit they deserve. It's assumed that almost any mediocre major conference team could waltz into the Mountain West and dominate. Rarely is it even questioned? But is it true? Could a team like, say, South Carolina, demolish all comers from the Mountain West, including road games in places like Salt Lake City, where the Utes hadn't lost in years? Doubtful.
So the conclusion is that the logic behind the attempts to explain away the power of the excludeds is faulty. Let's face it - TCU and Boise State are as good as any of the top 5 teams in the country. And this year they're rising up, ready to topple the establishment. With the uneasiness that exists in the major conferences and the inevitability of ongoing expansion on the horizon, this could mark the year that the system tips, and the excludeds earn their place at the table. We may look back at it as an historic year, a loosening of the establishment's stranglehold.
All that's left for it to happen is for either TCU or Boise State, or both, to finish what they've started and earn their spot in the title game. Because if they make it, they'll win it.
Abbreviated picks again, after a decidedly unabbreviated post:
1. Penn State at Ohio State
We PSU alums are carrying our heads a few inches higher after the past 2 weeks, but no matter how poised Matt McGloin looks, he's still a former walk-on starting a game against the closest thing the Big Ten's had to a dynasty in a long time. I don't envision this being very close.
Ohio State 35, Penn State 14
2. South Carolina at Florida
South Carolina is dying for an SEC title shot, and this looks like the year Spurrier finally delivers. He knows how to win in the swamp, and the Gators are far less balanced than the Gamecocks.
South Carolina 27, Florida 20
3. Mississippi State at Alabama
The success of Mississippi State this year is a nice story, but their 7-2 record is highly misleading.
Alabama 30, Mississippi State 17
4. Oklahoma State at Texas
The surprising run for both teams - in opposite and unexpected directions - continues. It will be interesting to see how Texas responds once they get to loss #6 and have to scrap for a bowl berth.
Oklahoma State 38, Texas 31
5. Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Virginia Tech is clearly the ACC's best, but if this year is anything like all the others in the Frank Beamer era, the Hokies lose this one. North Carolina regularly trips up some of the more established ACC programs, and it's only a matter of time until Virginia Tech ends up with a third loss, one to a team they should beat.
North Carolina 20, Virginia Tech 13
6. Georgia at Auburn
Potential trap game here. With all the hoopla surrounding Cam Newton's recruitment, and the Crimson Tide on the horizon, Auburn could come into this game unfocused and looking ahead. Bad idea. Georgia may be 5-5, but they're not dead. I think Auburn wins, but they do so by having to come back from 2 scores down.
Auburn 41, Georgia 35
7. Iowa at Northwestern
Another potential trap game, but Iowa's disciplined and well-coached, and they'll be out for revenge, as Northwestern ended the Hawkeyes' undefeated season, and that of Ricky Stanzi, in Iowa City last year.
Iowa 31, Northwestern 17
8. USC at Arizona
It's fun to watch USC crumble.
Arizona 24, USC 20
9. Oregon at California
The Ducks haven't won in Strawberry Canyon in a long time, but as far as we can tell, not even the train from Unstoppable could stop Oregon's offense.
Oregon 48, California 27
10. Texas A&M at Baylor
The Big 12 is becoming a revolving door, sending new teams into the top 25 every week. This week Texas A&M gets their crack, but expect a letdown after their big win against Oklahoma.
Baylor 42, Texas A&M 31
11. San Diego State at TCU
The last real threat to TCU's undefeated season and potential place in the BCS title game. Assume it will be eradicated quickly by their suffocating defense.
TCU 34, San Diego State 7
12. Utah at Notre Dame
Not many people expected Brian Kelly's first season at Notre Dame to go worse than Charlie Weis's last few. But this one might - the Irish have to beat either Utah or USC to become bowl-eligible.
Utah 28, Notre Dame 21
13. Kansas State at Missouri
Missouri's due to bounce back, and K-State is due for a letdown. Home field means everything this year in the Big 12 (unless you're Texas).
Missouri 33, Kansas State 23
14. Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 2 steps slower than they need to be to run Paul Johnson's option offense.
Miami (FL) 31, Georgia Tech 28
15. Nevada at Fresno State
The main threats to Boise State's rise to glory, and no, their records don't overstate their worth. These are both solid groups. The Valley is a tough place to win, and Nevada will find that out late Saturday night.
Fresno State 35, Nevada 33
I've settled on "excludeds", which drives the spell checker crazy but does a fair job driving the point home. Like the little brother who's forced to stay inside while big bro and his buds play a mean game of tackle football out back, excludeds like TCU and Boise State won't get the establishment's hint. They want to play too. And they've got the game to hang.
It's time to recognize that these schools aren't little fish who happen to absentmindedly swim over to the big pond every once in awhile. They're legitimately budding national powerhouses. They just happen to reside in the WAC and MWC.
Here's the common argument against why TCU and Boise State (or Utah or Hawaii, or whoever it might be in a given year) shouldn't be considered a part of the national championship conversation: "If they played in the SEC of the Big 12, or even the ACC for that matter, they'd never run the table. The week-in, week-out rigors of major conference football would wear them down."
It sounds nice, and because it's hypothetical it's tough to argue against. But here are a few reasons why it doesn't hold water:
1. It's hypothetical. Anyone can spout off such a statement, but there is absolutely no way to prove it. That is, until next year, when Utah, a perennial powerhouse among the excludeds, makes the leap to the Pac-Ten. A year from now, when the Utes are firmly embroiled in the Pac-Ten title race, check back to this post as a reminder that at least one person saw it coming.
2. It's based on outdated source material. What I mean by that is, the argument plays on overall team depth. It's widely thought that major conference teams are deeper - recruiting hauls mean they're overloaded with talent and the guys on the bench would easily start for a Boise State or TCU. That may have been true 30 years ago, but in this day and age scholarship limits restrict the big schools from stockpiling they way they used to. More blue chip talent gets spread elsewhere - to places like Fort Worth and Boise. And the overall advancements in training and the quality of play in high schools across the country means that there are more good players now than ever. Again, this spills over to the benches of the excludeds. So they may not have the players the ubiquitous professional high school talent scouts blather about on the seeming dozens of recruit tracking sites, but they do have guys who can play. And they have a lot of them.
3. How often does a major conference team run the table these days? So you want to argue that the excludeds would invariably drop a game or two if they played an "SEC-style schedule". Fine. You're right, they probably would. But the last time I checked, Alabama, a team labeled as everyone's best heading into the season, has a 2 in the loss column. So how does that make them any different? Using that argument actually works against the arguer. It makes the excludeds equal to the big conference big boys, who, if they do manage to go unbeaten, do so more on luck and a few wise decisions than they do on overall skill. The difference between a 2-loss SEC team and a no-loss SEC team isn't that much - just watch Alabama-Auburn in 2 weeks for proof.
4. It ignores history. Once upon a time, much of the college football world resided in a peaceful co-existence of independent programs. As many as thirty programs were unaffiliated with a conference, and in this world several programs we now consider elite were able to rise from the morass and attain greatness. Florida State and Miami were once considered gnats, their constant buzzing about taking a place among the giants considered annoying talk to most. But persistence payed off, and the Hurricanes and Seminoles earned their place at the establishment table in the 70's and 80's. They were aided by the landscape of independence. They weren't tied to a conference that, either by perception or reality, weighed them down.
The biggest disadvantage Boise State and TCU have is the fact that they're affiliated in a conference. Their rise should be no different than that of Florida State, Miami, or any of the other programs who scrapped their way to prominence. But they carry the weight of perception. Because all the traditional or recently-anointed traditional powers have all clustered into the conference system that aids their own establishmentarianism, it's harder now for new powers to break in. We hear talk of "East Coast Bias", but perhaps the greatest media bias, one fueled by the college football system itself, is the universally-held viewpoint that non-BCS conferences are vastly inferior. There's no doubt that some level of inferiority exists, but it's not nearly as striking as we're led to believe. So when a team like TCU establishes itself on a much higher level above the rest of their conference, they aren't given the credit they deserve. It's assumed that almost any mediocre major conference team could waltz into the Mountain West and dominate. Rarely is it even questioned? But is it true? Could a team like, say, South Carolina, demolish all comers from the Mountain West, including road games in places like Salt Lake City, where the Utes hadn't lost in years? Doubtful.
So the conclusion is that the logic behind the attempts to explain away the power of the excludeds is faulty. Let's face it - TCU and Boise State are as good as any of the top 5 teams in the country. And this year they're rising up, ready to topple the establishment. With the uneasiness that exists in the major conferences and the inevitability of ongoing expansion on the horizon, this could mark the year that the system tips, and the excludeds earn their place at the table. We may look back at it as an historic year, a loosening of the establishment's stranglehold.
All that's left for it to happen is for either TCU or Boise State, or both, to finish what they've started and earn their spot in the title game. Because if they make it, they'll win it.
Abbreviated picks again, after a decidedly unabbreviated post:
1. Penn State at Ohio State
We PSU alums are carrying our heads a few inches higher after the past 2 weeks, but no matter how poised Matt McGloin looks, he's still a former walk-on starting a game against the closest thing the Big Ten's had to a dynasty in a long time. I don't envision this being very close.
Ohio State 35, Penn State 14
2. South Carolina at Florida
South Carolina is dying for an SEC title shot, and this looks like the year Spurrier finally delivers. He knows how to win in the swamp, and the Gators are far less balanced than the Gamecocks.
South Carolina 27, Florida 20
3. Mississippi State at Alabama
The success of Mississippi State this year is a nice story, but their 7-2 record is highly misleading.
Alabama 30, Mississippi State 17
4. Oklahoma State at Texas
The surprising run for both teams - in opposite and unexpected directions - continues. It will be interesting to see how Texas responds once they get to loss #6 and have to scrap for a bowl berth.
Oklahoma State 38, Texas 31
5. Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Virginia Tech is clearly the ACC's best, but if this year is anything like all the others in the Frank Beamer era, the Hokies lose this one. North Carolina regularly trips up some of the more established ACC programs, and it's only a matter of time until Virginia Tech ends up with a third loss, one to a team they should beat.
North Carolina 20, Virginia Tech 13
6. Georgia at Auburn
Potential trap game here. With all the hoopla surrounding Cam Newton's recruitment, and the Crimson Tide on the horizon, Auburn could come into this game unfocused and looking ahead. Bad idea. Georgia may be 5-5, but they're not dead. I think Auburn wins, but they do so by having to come back from 2 scores down.
Auburn 41, Georgia 35
7. Iowa at Northwestern
Another potential trap game, but Iowa's disciplined and well-coached, and they'll be out for revenge, as Northwestern ended the Hawkeyes' undefeated season, and that of Ricky Stanzi, in Iowa City last year.
Iowa 31, Northwestern 17
8. USC at Arizona
It's fun to watch USC crumble.
Arizona 24, USC 20
9. Oregon at California
The Ducks haven't won in Strawberry Canyon in a long time, but as far as we can tell, not even the train from Unstoppable could stop Oregon's offense.
Oregon 48, California 27
10. Texas A&M at Baylor
The Big 12 is becoming a revolving door, sending new teams into the top 25 every week. This week Texas A&M gets their crack, but expect a letdown after their big win against Oklahoma.
Baylor 42, Texas A&M 31
11. San Diego State at TCU
The last real threat to TCU's undefeated season and potential place in the BCS title game. Assume it will be eradicated quickly by their suffocating defense.
TCU 34, San Diego State 7
12. Utah at Notre Dame
Not many people expected Brian Kelly's first season at Notre Dame to go worse than Charlie Weis's last few. But this one might - the Irish have to beat either Utah or USC to become bowl-eligible.
Utah 28, Notre Dame 21
13. Kansas State at Missouri
Missouri's due to bounce back, and K-State is due for a letdown. Home field means everything this year in the Big 12 (unless you're Texas).
Missouri 33, Kansas State 23
14. Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 2 steps slower than they need to be to run Paul Johnson's option offense.
Miami (FL) 31, Georgia Tech 28
15. Nevada at Fresno State
The main threats to Boise State's rise to glory, and no, their records don't overstate their worth. These are both solid groups. The Valley is a tough place to win, and Nevada will find that out late Saturday night.
Fresno State 35, Nevada 33
Friday, November 5, 2010
Week 10: Making Good on a Promise
In the "About Me" section at the bottom of this page I built in a fail-safe phrase for a time like this. I just don't have time to do a full post this week, just as my profile indicates might occasionally happen. So this is the first week I have to fully invoke that "just in case" phrase. More important and more pressing things have gobbled up my time, and I'm left with a few minutes to throw together a quick list of 15 predictions. My apologies for the lack of substance, hopefully I'll be back at it next week!
1. Penn State 30, Northwestern 24 (JoePa's 400th!)
2. TCU 17, Utah 14 (Non-BCS game of the century!?)
3. Alabama 28, LSU 14 (Saban Bowl with a twist of Hat!)
4. Stanford 34, Arizona 24 (Cardinal best 1-loss team outside of Tuscaloosa!)
5. Oklahoma State 38, Baylor 31 (Battle for Big 12 South first place!)
6. South Carolina 27, Arkansas 23 (Why am I still using exclamation points?)
7. Illinois 35, Michigan 28 (Playing offense vs. Michigan is like throwing a rock through a wet paper bag)
8. Florida State 24, North Carolina 17 (Tar Heels have no more juice)
9. Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 24 (Sooners still lurking)
10. Missouri 27, Texas Tech 24 (Tigers still with shot at Big 12 North)
11. Clemson 27, N.C. State 21 (Nothing to say here)
12. Boise State 48, Hawaii 17 (Broncos grabbing for whatever SOS points they can get)
13. Texas 23, Kansas State 20 (Longhorns can't possibly go below .500, can they?)
14. Nebraska 28, Iowa State 20 (possible repeat of 8 turnover performance?)
15. Syracuse 27, Louisville 26 (only relevant Big East game, both big surprises)
1. Penn State 30, Northwestern 24 (JoePa's 400th!)
2. TCU 17, Utah 14 (Non-BCS game of the century!?)
3. Alabama 28, LSU 14 (Saban Bowl with a twist of Hat!)
4. Stanford 34, Arizona 24 (Cardinal best 1-loss team outside of Tuscaloosa!)
5. Oklahoma State 38, Baylor 31 (Battle for Big 12 South first place!)
6. South Carolina 27, Arkansas 23 (Why am I still using exclamation points?)
7. Illinois 35, Michigan 28 (Playing offense vs. Michigan is like throwing a rock through a wet paper bag)
8. Florida State 24, North Carolina 17 (Tar Heels have no more juice)
9. Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 24 (Sooners still lurking)
10. Missouri 27, Texas Tech 24 (Tigers still with shot at Big 12 North)
11. Clemson 27, N.C. State 21 (Nothing to say here)
12. Boise State 48, Hawaii 17 (Broncos grabbing for whatever SOS points they can get)
13. Texas 23, Kansas State 20 (Longhorns can't possibly go below .500, can they?)
14. Nebraska 28, Iowa State 20 (possible repeat of 8 turnover performance?)
15. Syracuse 27, Louisville 26 (only relevant Big East game, both big surprises)
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