The college football season could easily be likened to a fireworks display: lots of loud noises, sparkling sights, unexpected surprises that draw 'oohs' and 'aahs', and a rousing finale that often leaves you breathless and rattled. But like many fireworks displays, there can be a few duds that make it off the launch pad. You know the ones. You hear the cannon shot pump the rocket into the air, wait for a silent few seconds in anticipation of the sound and the light, then only hear a faint screech tailing off into the night, perhaps with a puff of smoke.
This week is shaping up as the potential dud in the college football fireworks display. The top three teams are all idle, and the fourth, Boise State, faces another minor hurdle in the sprint to another undefeated season. The closest we come to marquee games are Ohio State at Iowa (far more compelling even just a week ago), Nebraska at Texas A&M (eh), and Virginia Tech at Miami (hard to get jacked up over the ACC). Perhaps we can look at it as the calm before the storm, or the slight lull before the big finale.
Then again, this is college football, and just when a weekend looks completely unappealing, it turns on you, providing the most entertaining football of the season. Maybe the also-rans can bring us some memorable moments, playing more for pride and a later in December bowl instead of a national title shot.
1. Ohio State at Iowa
The season Iowa looked to have when this whole shebang kicked off has deconstructed quickly and rudely. The Hawkeyes faced their toughest foes at home, only they honked one of those games, to Wisconsin, and managed to lose to lesser teams, Arizona and Northwestern, on the road. Will they fold up the tent or come out with a chip on their shoulder when the Buckeyes come calling? The Hawkeyes are balanced, have lost by a TD or less in each of their 3 losses, and the Buckeyes haven't set the world on fire. They're good, but as a fairly mediocre Penn State team showed in the first half last Saturday, they're beatable. I think Iowa brings some fire and rallies around last year's heartbreaking loss in Columbus. They'd love to be the ones who spoil Ohio State's Big Ten title shot this time around.
Iowa 23, Ohio State 20
2. Nebraska at Texas A&M
No defense = problem for the Aggies. They've had a nice surge lately, but they're not worthy of the #18 ranking. They'll find ways to move the ball on offense, but a few turnovers and inability to stop Nebraska's run game will do them in.
Nebraska 37, Texas A&M 28
3. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
Was I a week early on my prediction of a Hokie stumble? They dispatched North Carolina pretty nicely. I can't shake the notion that they'll lose again, but they're one of the hottest teams in the nation right now. The ACC is clearly Virginia Tech's to lose. Miami won't get in their way.
Virginia Tech 27, Miami (FL) 17
4. Arkansas at Mississippi State
Mississippi State's fall back to reality continues.
Arkansas 35, Mississippi State 17
5. Florida State at Maryland
Don't look now, but Maryland is just 2 wins away from winning the ACC Atlantic. Not bad for a team many picked last in the conference. They've been winning with far more defense than offense, with both their passing and running game hovering in the 80's nationally. But they've steadily improved as the season's wore on, posting over 40 points in 2 of their last 3. After a solid midseason stretch Florida State has appeared very vulnerable of late, losing tight games to both North Carolina and N.C. State and squeaking by Clemson. At night, at Maryland, with the Terps as juiced as they've been in years, they'll continue to stumble. Maryland stakes their case as the surprise team of the year with an upset win.
Maryland 27, Florida State 23
6. Oklahoma at Baylor
Wouldn't it be something if Baylor beat Texas and Oklahoma in the same season. That would immediately qualify for "best season in school history", and DVD sales would start picking up in Waco bookstores. But it's not gonna happen. The Sooners bring a lot more swagger and talent than Texas did, something not even the Bears home field advantage will overcome.
Oklahoma 45, Baylor 31
7. Illinois vs. Northwestern
You know it's a dud week when Gameday packs the truck up for Illinois-Northwestern. Sure, there's the Wrigley Field angle (sidenote: college football will be played in both Wrigley and Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Time warp!), but that's just a scraping for headlines. The Illinois kids will love it, but the show might get the lowest ratings of the year. These two are actually fairly frisky, both tripping up a few big names as the year's gone by. The biggest question is how badly the loss of Dan Persa will affect Northwestern's offense. He's a tough guy to replace, but Pat Fitzgerald knows how to bring the best out of his players. Another silent 9-win season could await the folks in Evanston.
Northwestern 20, Illinois 14
8. N.C. State at North Carolina
Nothing informed or interesting to say about this one. Hey, did you know these two schools are from the same Metropolitan Statistical Area, as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget?
North Carolina 30, N.C. State 27
9. Wisconsin at Michigan
Sadly, Michigan's bowl drought has ended. Let's hold a moment of silence.
Now, let's watch with glee as the Badgers unleash havoc on the hapless Wolverine defense!
Wisconsin 49, Michigan 28
10. Stanford at California
Cal nearly upended Oregon last week, only to have the Ducks slow their blur to a crawl, mercilessly hammering the Golden Bears into submission with a game ending drive that served as a bruising exhibition on what it means to shut a game down. It'll be tough for Cal to get revved back up fully for this one, as the always-physical Stanford Cardinal come crashing into town. It is the Big Game, though, and strange things have happened before. But I don't predict strange things; I pick logical outcomes.
Stanford 22, California 16
11. USC at Oregon State
Losing James Rodgers effectively killed Oregon State's season, and perhaps those of TCU and Boise State as well. With the Beavers fade into obscurity nearly complete, the respect and computer numbers of the Horned Frogs and Broncos are going with it. Even though USC always seems to struggle in Corvallis, it's hard to pick Oregon State against anyone right now.
USC 33, Oregon State 17
12. Fresno State at Boise State
This game makes the list only because it's a slim week. But wouldn't it make for great theater if Pat Hill and his Bulldogs, once the carriers of the "Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime" mantra, revived it for a road game in their own conference. You know the envy has to fester deep in Fresno hearts - they were supposed to be the WAC's elite achievers!
Boise State 42, Fresno State 21
13. Pittsburgh at South Florida
Oh the Big East. Could there have been a major conference with a worse season than this Big East campaign? Basketball is here two months too late.
Pittsburgh 28, South Florida 24
14. Utah at San Diego State
Have these teams reversed places in the last two weeks, or what? Not long ago Utah was in the top 5, but an embarrassing home loss to TCU and an equally embarrassing loss at Notre Dame have killed that notion. San Diego State, meanwhile, has emerged as the MWC's real #2 team, pushing TCU to the limit last week after a string of conference wins. It's hard to imagine these trends shifting so dramatically this week.
San Diego State 24, Utah 17
15. Mississippi at LSU
Is this what we're left with? Is this the game CBS pegged as their national telecast? Yes, Les Miles always finds ways to make things interesting, but Mississippi did lose to Jacksonville State earlier this year. Not even the presence of Jeremiah Masoli can brighten things up. LSU's defense keeps this game ugly and boring.
LSU 27, Mississippi 10
Next week: rivalry week ushers in the first part of this season's grand finale. Turkey, football, tradition, and many, many blessings await!
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