Week 10: Playoffs

This Saturday we turn the calendar to November, and that's when you can begin to really think about the national championship in earnest.  Everything up until now has been a precursor; now we get down to business.  Now is when all the BCS madness and ceaseless arguments over who's deserving and who's not really heat up, and when we'll see those stats that show how something like 95% of the nation is in favor of a playoff.

You won't find me among those 95% (I'm in favor of a "plus-one" format, not the 8 or 16 team variety that is usually talked about when people say "playoff" - more on that in the off-season).  The reason college football is the greatest sport around is because its regular season is more meaningful than any other.  Every game is a playoff game, particularly those played after November 1.  We'll see elimination games every week, all rolling ahead to the conference championship games and the announcement of who's made it and who hasn't.  If an 8 or 16-team playoff existed, games like this weekends Texas-Texas Tech shootout or Florida-Georgia cocktail party would lose some significant luster.  Why diminish the hundreds of meaningful games played over the course of 4 months to have an extra six in December or January?  

So now that the November playoffs have arrived, we can do a quick sort-out of the contenders and their best case scenarios for making it to the BCS Championship game.  I did this a few weeks ago, remember, and looking back to those predictions makes me look a bit silly.  So take these with a grain of salt.

Texas is obviously in the best possible position.  Just win and they're in.  Even a loss wouldn't take them completely out of the picture.  Losing to Texas Tech would mean a drop no lower than 4 - I can't imagine them falling behind Oklahoma - and they'd just need 2 teams to falter, or creep past them on strong computer numbers.  I should note that they're also 3/4 of the way through the Big 12 South gauntlet, as opposed to the other 3 contenders, who have a much tougher path remaining.

Alabama is also likely in a win-and-in position, barring an unlikely leap by Penn State past them.  A loss for them would be more damaging though, and could eliminate them, especially considering their competition from here on in.

Penn State is in the most tenuous position.  A loss would almost certainly eliminate them, and even if they were to win out and have Texas or Alabama lose, they still might not be able to guarantee a spot.  The Big 12 South might be the best single division in the history of college football, and when all the titanic games that are to come in the next 5 weeks are said and done, a one-loss Big 12 South team would have awfully strong computer numbers, maybe strong enough to push them past the Nittany Lions.  Such a scenario would be the death knell for the BCS, and could be the death knell for Joe Paterno, who would likely have a heart attack trying to campaign for his team.  It's good for Penn State that their computer average shot up from 7 to 3 this week - that should (hopefully) be enough to hold their position.

Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State all find themselves in the unfortunate position of playing in the Big 12 South, hereby known as the "NFC East".  What a weird season this is - 4 of the 9 legitimate national title contenders all play in the same division, while the ACC and Big East have teams in the top 25 based on reputation alone.  What will most likely happen is that Texas will win Saturday and essentially close the door on the championship hopes of these 3, but a Red Raider win would cause all hell to break loose on the plains of Texas and Oklahoma.  At that point, anything could happen.

Florida and Georgia play an elimination game this weekend in Jacksonville - winner almost certainly faces Alabama (barring a historic collapse) in the SEC Championship game.  Even then they'd still need lots of help to make it to Miami.

USC is lurking, but probably has only a minimal shot at making the title tilt.  The Pac Ten is bad, and it would be hard to justify USC finishing above a one loss Big 12 or SEC team.  They probably need the most help of all the contenders, because they've got no real chance of helping themselves by whipping a quality opponent down the stretch.

On to the picks.  I had my best week last week at 11-4.  At this point I'd be happy with just one week at .800 or above!

1. Texas at Texas Tech

As much as I want to, I can't pick Texas Tech.  They've knocked off national title contenders in Lubbock before (see Oklahoma, 2007), but I don't trust Mike Leach.  The guy is a great offensive mind, but he's enough of a non-traditionalist that he could lose the game on a weird decision.  He hates punting, which could bite his team badly against an offense like Texas, and he's got some guy pulled out of the student section kicking extra points.  So Red Raider fans better hope it doesn't come down to a field goal.  Texas is tired after their journey through the teeth of the Big 12, and this is their first true road game in that stretch, but I think they have enough left in the tank to beat Texas Tech and their offbeat coach.

Texas 37, Texas Tech 31

2. Florida vs. Georgia

Winning in the SEC is all about timing.  Last week Florida cruised past a speed bump named Kentucky, while Georgia won a shootout against LSU.  LSU isn't what they once were, but they put up a much better fight than the Wildcats, and they still hit hard.  Plus, Florida has looked scary good since losing to Ole Miss, and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder after Georgia's Chinese fire drill in the end zone last year.

Florida 35, Georgia 25

3. Nebraska at Oklahoma

Game of the Century this is not.  Oklahoma can't seem to stop anybody anymore, but it won't matter if they post another double nickel by halftime.

Oklahoma 58, Nebraska 28

4. Florida State at Georgia Tech

This is a pretty dull week once you get past the big games in Jacksonville and Lubbock, which means I'm stuck picking a bunch of ACC and Big East games between teams trying to crawl into an undeserved BCS spot.  Ugh.  This could get ugly for me.  I'll stick with last week's logic and go against the ranked team here.  Florida State is starting to look pretty good, but they've been ranked for 2 weeks, which for an ACC team is like playing with a kryptonite football.  And Georgia Tech is pretty good too.

Georgia Tech 23, Florida State 20

5. Miami (FL) at Virginia

I don't think Virginia will keep their streak alive, they're about due for a slip-up.

Miami (FL) 28, Virginia 20

6. South Florida at Cincinnati

Cincy laid an egg in East Hartford last week, making me look bad for touting them as a Big East sleeper.  They're a much tougher out at home, but I think South Florida will bounce back and get it done at Nippert Stadium.

South Florida 34, Cincinnati 27

7. West Virginia at Connecticut

UConn is seeking some revenge from their thrashing at the hands of the Mountaineers last Fall.  I think they'll get it - the Mountaineers have lost both their road games this year, both against inferior opponents; while UConn has played quite well, and is undefeated, at home.

Connecticut 30, West Virginia 24

8. Clemson at Boston College

I'm tired of picking Clemson and losing.

Boston College 23, Clemson 17

9. Pittsburgh at Notre Dame

In one week, Pitt goes from the new Big East royalty to victims of a backalley beatdown from some dudes from Jersey.  Rutgers was averaging 13 points a game before hanging 54 on the Panthers, who were supposed to have a solid defense.  Yikes.  Pitt does play to the level of its competition, so I think they'll be competitive, but Notre Dame is the stronger team. 

Notre Dame 35, Pittsburgh 28

10. Iowa at Illinois

Iowa has been on fire lately, and Illinois has joined the long list of maddeningly inconsistent teams.  The Illini will struggle to find an answer to Shonn Greene, but Iowa's defense will have their hands full too.  This should be a competitive game, and I'll give the edge to the Illini at home.

Illinois 24, Iowa 21

11. Northwestern at Minnesota

Minnesota is a great story, and this week they face a depleted version of what would be a dangerous opponent.  The Wildcats lost both QB C.J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton last week, so while I think they'll press the Gophers, they'll ultimately fall short.  Minnesota's resurgence continues.

Minnesota 41, Northwestern 31

12. Wisconsin at Michigan State

Expect a 2 1/2 hour game as both teams pound the ball with bruising running backs.  Javon Ringer is the best back on the field, so the Spartans get the nod.

Michigan State 17, Wisconsin 16

13. Tennessee at South Carolina

I think Tennessee is done.  They threw a lot into their game with Alabama and they'll come out flat this week against a good Gamecock team.  The ol' ballcoach has done a good job building a solid team from what looked like a pretty bleak unit at the start of the season.

South Carolina 20, Tennessee 12

14. Arizona State at Oregon State

Arizona State is another team with a fork stuck in them.  The Beavers are tough at home (just ask USC), and won't lose to the walking dead.  As a Penn State fan, I'm all about the Beavers right now.  Come on Oregon State - strengthen our computer numbers!

Oregon State 34, Arizona State 17

15. Oregon at California

This game is a battle for second in the Pac Ten.  Oregon has a stronger resume, only losing to USC (no shame there) and Boise State (looking less and less like a bad loss).  Cal has had some consistency issues, though they've been solid at home.  I'll go with the Ducks in a shootout.

Oregon 42, California 35

Week 9: The ACC Is Stupid

I'm not so much a fan of the ACC right now.  The conference is impossible to figure out - just when you think you know who's good and who's not, it all flips a week later.  I've compiled my year's record picking games involving ACC teams, and I'm 12-14.  Take those games away and my record is a robust 59-35.  The ACC is weighing down my progress!  Stupid ACC!

Just for fun, here's a few of the many reasons why the ACC is so dumb:

• >> ACC teams appear to have an aversion to being ranked - just when one enters the top 25, they seem to fall back out no more than 2 weeks later.  The latest victims are Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and North Carolina.  Next in line: Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College.  Don't be surprised to see them lose this weekend.
• >> The Sporting News preseason magazine had the ACC rankings stacked like this (current actual place, using tiebreakers, in parenthesis): Atlantic - 1. Clemson (5); 2. Wake Forest (4); 3. Florida State (1); 4. N.C. State (6); 5. Boston College (2); 6. Maryland (3)... Coastal - 1. Virginia Tech (2); 2. Miami (5); 3. North Carolina (4); 4. Georgia Tech (1); 5. Virginia (3); 6. Duke (6)... Note the fact that Duke is the only one in the prognosticated position.  Dumb.
• >> Consistency, or lack thereof. Maryland apparently dresses two separate football teams and alternates which one plays each week.  Clemson has played alarmingly bad, considering expectation and talent.  Georgia Tech is 6-1 and nearly lost to Gardner-Webb.  Wake Forest looked very solid in beating Baylor, Ole Miss, and Florida State, then lost to Navy and got shut out by Maryland's A-side.  Virginia lost to UConn 45-10, who lost to North Carolina 38-12.  What happened when Virginia played UNC?  The Cavaliers won, of course.  What the crap!

What I think is actually the case is that all 12 teams are astoundingly mediocre, and any one can beat any of the others on any Saturday in any stadium.  Even Duke.  Which makes their games impossible to predict.  Maybe they'll all finish 4-4 in conference and lose their BCS inclusion.  That would be spectacular.

You know what else is spectacular?  Penn State beating Michigan.  And this week's slate of games - I expect this to be the most entertaining weekend of the season.  Good matchups all across the board.  It's hard to narrow the selection list to 15, but here goes.

1. Penn State at Ohio State

The Big Ten championship game.  I wish this game were played 3 weeks ago, but now the Buckeyes have woken up and this looks like a very difficult test for the Nittany Lions.  Here's what's going to happen: Ohio State will try to establish the running game behind Beanie Wells, they do not want Terrelle Pryor forced to throw over 20 passes.  Such a scenario would end badly.  Penn State knows this, and they know Ohio State will see tape all week of Michigan's Brandon Minor gashing the PSU defense.  They'll be ready, and they'll bring an extra man, sometimes two, in the box to clog Wells' running lanes.  PSU will do all they can do force Pryor into passing situations.  If they can, expect a few turnovers.  Pryor made some shaky throws last week and got away with them, but I don't think he'll be as fortunate against the Nittany Lion secondary.  The x-factor when the Buckeyes have the ball is Pryor's legs.  PSU must keep good contain and play disciplined, forcing Pryor to the sidelines.  I expect that he'll end up with some long gains, but in the end Penn State's defense will force field goal attempts and stop Wells enough to neutralize the suddenly frisky Buckeye offense.  On the other side of the ball, expect a big game from Evan Royster.  Ohio State has looked susceptible to the run all season, and Royster is shifty enough to break some long runs.  Penn State's game plan will likely mirror Ohio State - establish the run to take the pressure off a relatively untested QB.  Daryl Clark will struggle a bit with the quick and opportunistic Ohio State secondary, but pounding the rock with Royster will open some things up for him.  And don't forget his running ability too.  When it's all sorted out, I think Penn State wins because they'll win the turnover battle (each team will have a few), free Evan Royster and Stephon Green behind a great offensive line, and commit fewer penalties (PSU ranks 105th in total penalties, Ohio State 45th).

Penn State 27, Ohio State 13

2. Georgia at LSU

The fact that this game is in the afternoon, and not at night, is good news for Georgia.  Tiger Stadium is not an easy place to walk into and win at night.  LSU still doesn't look very impressive to me, particularly on offense, and Georgia has the balance on offense to chip away at the stout Tiger defense.

Georgia 24, LSU 13

3. Oklahoma State at Texas

The Longhorns are on fire right now.  Something tells me they'll cool off before the season's over, especially with the string of games they face, but probably not quite yet.  Oklahoma State has the tools to contend in this game, especially on defense.  They contained Chase Daniel, and they could keep Heisman frontrunner Colt McCoy in check.  I think Texas wins this game, unlike all the others, with defense.  They too shut down Chase Daniel, and the Cowboy offense isn't quite as potent as Missouri's.

Texas 31, Oklahoma State 21

4. Alabama at Tennessee

It's tempting to take Tennessee here - Alabama has looked somewhat pedestrian in home wins over Kentucky and Mississippi.  Tennessee needs a signature win badly, and they'll be ready to rally in this one.  But the Tide have rolled in their away and neutral site games, they seem to be the weird team that actually plays better away from home.  The Vols keep it close, but Alabama escapes again.

Alabama 20, Tennessee 16

5. USC at Arizona

USC has struggled against Arizona lately, and this is Mike Stoops' best team in his tenure there.  This might be a trendy upset pick, but I think USC has this once circled, knowing that people will be looking for them to stumble in the desert.  The Trojans win big again.

USC 42, Arizona 17

6. Virginia Tech at Florida State

Florida State is ranked, which means they'll lose, following ACC protocol.

Virginia Tech 21, Florida State 20

7. Virginia at Georgia Tech

Ditto for Georgia Tech.  

Virginia 26, Georgia Tech 21

8. Boston College at North Carolina

And Boston College.  I'm not giving these ACC games any more thought than that, knowing they're all 50/50 propositions anyway.

North Carolina 34, Boston College 17

9. Texas Tech at Kansas

Texas Tech has stubbed their toe a bit in the last few weeks and look pretty vulnerable for an upset here.  I actually moved Kansas up into my top 15 this week in spite of their loss to Oklahoma, they showed some moxie in hanging with an angry Sooner squad in Norman.  Todd Reesing and the Kansas offense will use the short passing game to slice the Red Raider defense with long drives, keeping the Texas Tech offense off the field.  This could be the most entertaining game of the weekend.

Kansas 34, Texas Tech 31

10. Auburn at West Virginia

Before the season started, this was the second sexiest non-conference matchup behind Ohio State-USC.  Not so much now.  Auburn's gone through an offensive coordinator and West Virginia might go through a head coach if Bill Stewart isn't careful.  Lots of talent on both teams, but not a lot of sizzle on the field.  I'm going with West Virginia because they've already played a Thursday night game this year, which will give them a marked advantage in preparation.  That could be huge - we've already seen what kind of craziness the erratic shortened week of prep brings on.

West Virginia 19, Auburn 13

11. Cincinnati at Connecticut

The Big East is like the ACC's little brother - just as mediocre and evenly matched across the board.  A few weeks ago I told you the UConn was a sleeper pick to take the conference, and now I'm about to tell you it's Cincinnati.  The Bearcats only loss was at Oklahoma in a game that was closer than the score indicated, and they're still flying very much under the radar.  They have a hungry defense that forces turnovers, and a schedule that sets up nicely - both Pitt and South Florida visit Nippert Stadium.  A win at UConn could be a springboard to much bigger things.  I think they'll do it - the Huskies have fallen off a bit in the last few weeks, culminating in a bad loss to Rutgers.

Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 17

12. Michigan State at Michigan

Each week brings us closer to the inevitable and satisfying conclusion of Michigan missing a bowl game.  This game puts them on death's door.  Don't be fooled by their woodshed beating at the hands of Ohio State - the Spartans are a good team.  In years past their humiliating home loss to the Buckeyes would derail their entire season, but Mark Dantonio has restored order and discipline to the Michigan State program.

Michigan State 35, Michigan 27

13. Colorado at Missouri

Missouri had better be careful.  Two straight losses have knocked them clean out of national championship contention, and they could easily drop this game if they don't show up ready to play.  Weirdly, they still have an excellent chance of winning the Big 12 - both losses were to South Division teams and if they run the table they'll win the North, perhaps giving them another crack at Texas or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game.  Kansas is the only major hurdle remaining, and the Jayhawks already have a conference loss of their own.  Missouri had better be aware of this fact when they take the field Saturday, or else Colorado could make this possibility a mere dream.  I think the Tigers will be ready and take out some frustration on the Buffaloes.

Missouri 48, Colorado 28

14. Oregon at Arizona State

Arizona State is a team desperately in need of a win.  They started the season in the top 15 and have plummeted to 2-4 after 4 straight losses.  I think they'll win in a late-night shootout against a good Oregon offense, getting their season headed back in the right direction.

Arizona State 42, Oregon 35

15. Notre Dame at Washington

The Ty Willingham Memorial Classic.  Soon Willingham will be the former head coach at each of these schools, which is a shame because he's not nearly as bad a coach as people have made him out to be.  He was the victim of overzealous expectations in South Bend, and the victim of overzealous scheduling in Seattle.  You know he'll have his troops prepared for the visit of his former team, and the Huskies will keep this game close and entertaining.  Notre Dame gets the win to escape embarrassment - barely.

Notre Dame 31, Washington 28

Week 8: Don't Quit My Day Job

Another 8-7 week for me, which I suppose I’ll accept.  At one point Saturday afternoon I was sitting at 0-4 with several other games looking bleak, staring 5-10 in the face.  But I tend to do well with the night games and managed to get above .500.  In 7 weeks I’ve discovered that .600 is my Mendoza line (as opposed to the .800 I so flagrantly set as my goal).  Sad but true.

 

I’m out of town this week with limited internet access and time, so this week’s post and picks will be a bit abbreviated.  And probably just as mediocre.

 

Before I get to pickin’ I have one comment: what’s the deal with the incessant cries of “shocker” every time we see a marginal upset?  Texas shocks Oklahoma!  Oklahoma State shocks Missouri!  Toledo shocks Michigan!  The way college football is today, only a few upsets are worthy of the term “shocker”.  Upsets on the magnitude of last season’s Appalachian State over Michigan or Pitt over West Virginia qualify.  It’s hard to call any of the upsets from this past weekend shocking, let alone to call them upsets.  Florida probably was the favorite over LSU, Texas beating Oklahoma was a mild upset, and even Oklahoma State’s win wasn’t overly surprising – the Cowboys were undefeated and in the top 20.  We might as well get used to the unpredictability of college football.  After the last 2 seasons it certainly appears here to stay, and with it plenty of upsets.  Let’s not be so shocked by them anymore.

 

1. Michigan at Penn State

Penn State is very good (a phrase to be read with lots of glee), and Michigan is pretty bad.  That means this one could get out of hand.  It’s homecoming at Penn State and the Nittany Lions will be looking to take out 12 years of frustration on the hapless Wolverines.  True PSU fans will understand the poetic significance of my score prediction.

Penn State 40, Michigan 7

 

2. Missouri at Texas

Last week I boldly and stupidly predicted that either Oklahoma or Missouri would almost certainly make the BCS championship game.  Whoops.  I’ve underestimated Texas all season, and they’re worthy of the #1 spot right now, but I have a feeling that no one will make it out of the Big 12 alive.  Expect some carnage to build up over the next few weeks.

Missouri 38, Texas 31

 

3. Kansas at Oklahoma

The Sooners bounce back in a big way – Kansas isn’t as good as their ranking might lead you to believe.

Oklahoma 45, Kansas 24

 

4. Florida State at N.C. State

I don’t like Thursday night games.  I think my record is something like 2-5 in picking Thursday contests, so it’s with no confidence that I take Florida State here.

Florida State 23, N.C. State 17

 

5. Ohio State at Michigan State

Michigan State has a great opportunity here to assert itself as the solid #2 in the Big Ten.   But Ohio State is still a talented bunch and won’t roll over for the Spartans.  They won’t be looking past them either.

Ohio State 20, Michigan State 17

 

6. Vanderbilt at Georgia

The Commodores continue their fall back to earth.  It was a fun ride while it lasted!

Georgia 27, Vanderbilt 13

 

7. LSU at South Carolina

LSU was exposed by the Florida Gators last week, and South Carolina has been an improving side all season.  Charles Scott, prepare to meet Jasper Brinkley.  About a dozen times.

South Carolina 21, LSU 13

 

8. Wisconsin at Iowa

Wisconsin is a better team than they showed on Saturday night, and they’ll be desperate to get a win to get their season back on track, especially with Michigan State and Illinois on tap.

Wisconsin 24, Iowa 21

 

9. Georgia Tech at Clemson

After reading the score “Georgia Tech 10, Gardner-Webb 7”, I’m quite hesitant to take the Yellow Jackets, even against headless Clemson.  Tommy Bowden got lopped off the top of the coaching tree this week, a decision made about six months too late.  Often teams are galvanized by these sorts of off-field incidents and hoopla, and I think Clemson will show up ready to play on Saturday.

Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 24

 

10. BYU at TCU

Another Thursday nighter, which means anything could happen.  Upsets tend to be the norm on these midweek made-for-TV specials, and the folks in Ft. Worth will be ready to rudely welcome the Mountain West big boys.  The unbeaten list is shrinking rapidly, and BYU could be next to fall.

TCU 28, BYU 27

 

11. Mississippi at Alabama

Mississippi won’t go on the road and knock off another top 5 team, but this one will be closer than expected.  Ole Miss can play.

Alabama 27, Mississippi 23

 

12. California at Arizona

Arizona shouldn’t have lost to Stanford last week, and California shouldn’t be ranked in the top 25.  This week should straighten things up.

Arizona 30, California 20

 

13. North Carolina at Virginia

Virginia is suddenly surging after their pathetic start.  Where did that come from?  I’m guessing their last 2 opponents (schizophrenic Maryland and an East Carolina team who apparently thought their season lasted 2 games) have a lot to do with it.  The Tar Heels will put an end to the Cavalier streak – I’m still high on this North Carolina team.

North Carolina 28, Virginia 17

 

14. Virginia Tech at Boston College

I’m tempted to take BC here because I don’t think the Hokies have a whole lot behind their 5-1 record, but the Eagles don’t have much to offer either.  One of last year’s games of the year becomes a snoozer this time around.

Virginia Tech 25, Boston College 16

 

15. Pittsburgh at Navy

The Big East schedule makers forgot to include any appetizing conference matchups on the second 2 Saturdays of October, so I’m left picking this game just to get a Big East team on the 15.  Navy already knocked off a top 25 team, and this time they’re at home, but I don’t see them taking out another ranked foe.

Pittsburgh 23, Navy 13

Week 7: Clearing Up the Picture

We've reached the point in the 2008 college football season where we can take a step back and get a decent read on how things are going to play out.  Already several teams have played half their games, and all have played enough to get a pretty accurate read on who's for real and who's out of the chase.  So, like wiping clean a steamed up mirror after a hot shower, let's see if I can clear up the BCS championship picture for you.  I'll do it in the form of who's got the best odds of making the BCS title tilt.  While I don't advocate gambling on college football games (and based on my results so far that's a smart decision), it's fun to make phony odds for argument's sake.  I'll remind you that these are my odds of these teams making the championship game, not winning it.

3 to 2: Oklahoma OR Missouri

The Big 12 is a tough league, but these 2 teams appear head and shoulders above the rest, and right now it looks like a near certainty that one will reach the championship game.  They miss each other on the schedule and appear on a collision course for the Big 12 title game.  Missouri has to go to Texas and get through a border war with Kansas, and Oklahoma's toughest games are this Saturday vs. the Longhorns in Dallas, and the final 2 (home for Texas Tech and a suddenly tricky Bedlam game at Oklahoma State).  Not easy, but they'll both be favored in all their remaining games.

3 to 1: USC

USC as the most likely team behind OU and Mizzou? Yep - they have what amounts to a cakewalk through the Pac-10, and barring another hiccup should finish the season with one loss.  If history is any indicator, that should be enough to propel them into the championship game.

5 to 1: Penn State, Alabama

PSU has the horses to run the table in the Big Ten, but wins at both Wisconsin and Ohio State might be too much to ask.  Even if they do drop one, they still have an outside chance of making it. Meanwhile, Alabama is the most impressive and surprising team so far, but I still don't give them a good shot at going undefeated.  It's almost a guarantee that they'll lose one or two SEC games. They're just too young.  Or are they?

8 to 1: SEC Grab Bag (Florida, LSU, Georgia)

We all know the SEC is loaded, that's why these teams are so low on the odds chart.  Florida and Georgia would likely have to run the table, and LSU potentially has margin for error but unfortunately has plenty of games to make said error.

10 to 1: Texas, Texas Tech

Sorry guys, Oklahoma and Missouri are the class of the Big 12, and you ain't getting past them both.

12 to 1: Ohio State

Yes, the Buckeyes still have an outside shot.  A lot would have to fall into place, but it's not impossible to see.

20 to 1: BYU

The fact that they're in the top 10 so early in the season gives them at least an outside shot.  They need to continue walloping opponents and hope Washington and UCLA can make some hay in the Pac 10.  If they do go undefeated they'll have a legitimate argument.

30 to 1: the Field

Of course most teams are out of the picture, so when I say "the field" I mean all teams who still have one or no losses.  Yes, that includes Vanderbilt, the national darling.  I hate dumping on Cinderella because their story is so entertaining and engaging, but the fact is, all 3 SEC teams they've beaten are mid-level at best (including Auburn, who you'll remember I labeled overrated about 3 weeks ago).  Much tougher challenges are to come.

If I was pegged to make a prediction right now, I'd say Oklahoma or Missouri vs. USC or Penn State in Miami on January 8.  For fans of other teams, take heart that my preseason prediction was Ohio State-Florida.  Yikes.

I fell back to earth last week, finishing 8-7.  I'll try to do better this time.

1. Texas vs. Oklahoma

A high noon showdown at the Cotton Bowl.  This has become the yearly rivalry that dominates the national title picture, and this year is no different.  A Sooner win solidifies their #1 ranking; a Longhorn win puts them in the Big 12 South, and maybe the national title game, driver's seat.  I wasn't sold on Texas until they took apart Colorado last week.  Colt McCoy is a legit Heisman contender with his efficient play and gaudy numbers.  But the Longhorns are the underdog in a game where the favorite has won 9 straight.  I don't see that trend changing.  Oklahoma is very impressive, and I'd give them the edge in a deep Big 12 race because they have the most solid defense in a league full of offense.  I think their D will rattle McCoy some and the Sooners will win fairly comfortably.

Oklahoma 38, Texas 24

2. Penn State at Wisconsin

As a Penn State fan, this game should terrify me.  A night game against a good team in a tough stadium.  And the Nittany Lions are only 33-28 in Big Ten road games since entering the conference in 1993.  Wisconsin's dropped 2 tough games in a row and will come out hungry - if they have any hope remaining of winning the Big Ten, they've GOT to win this one.  But I'm not terrified.  A little trepidation maybe, but certainly not terrified.  I wasn't impressed by either Wisconsin or Ohio State last week, and the Badgers in particular look like a team with some offensive issues.  Penn State's defense isn't great, but should be able to handle Wisconsin.  Especially in defending the pass.  The Nittany Lion pass rush will force some bad throws from Allan Evridge, and their secondary will look to turn those into picks.  Wisconsin has to establish the ground game to take the pressure off Evridge, and with their massive O-line it's possible.  But PSU looks like a bend-but-don't-break defense, and I expect Badger scoring drives to be more of the field goal variety.  Offensively, I think Penn State will come out more sharp than last week - they'll be ready to silence the remaining doubters on the prime time stage.

Penn State 27, Wisconsin 16

3. LSU at Florida

This was possibly the best regular season game last year, and should again be a hard-hitting, intense affair.  LSU is already talking about taking Tim Tebow out of the game, and the trash talk might only increase throughout the week.  Both teams will be ready to go come Saturday night.  It took Florida 2 quarters to wake out of their post-Ole Miss funk, but they're back on track now.  Gators in a close one.

Florida 20, LSU 13

4. Oklahoma State at Missouri

The Cowboys have feasted on cupcakes for a month and a half, and we all know what happens when you eat too much junk food - you get fat.  Their offensive numbers in particular have quite a robust waistline.  You also get slow, which is how they'll appear against Missouri's torrid offense.  The drastic leap in competition will catch the Cowboys flat footed for a time, but they'll also score plenty points of their own.  Missouri's defense remains suspect, even after their solid performance against Nebraska last week.

Missouri 55, Oklahoma State 42

5. Notre Dame at North Carolina

North Carolina is getting better every week, and Notre Dame still looks fairly average.  The Irish will struggle to defend the Tar Heel receivers, and Carolina will gain some more swagger with a win over another name program.

North Carolina 31, Notre Dame 21

6. Clemson at Wake Forest

The point was driven home again last week - Thursday night games are tough to predict.  All 5 ESPN Thursday night contests have gone to the underdog, and Wake Forest will probably end up the favorite at home.  Look out Deacons!  Clemson underachieves, but I think they'll run through the holes Navy exposed 2 Saturdays ago.

Clemson 27, Wake Forest 23

7. Purdue at Ohio State

Uh-oh, the Buckeyes are back.  Their win over Wisconsin, while not overly impressive, was a huge confidence builder for Terrelle Pryor.  Which reminds me - why is it that people aren't making more of the fact that Ohio State completely abandoned Todd Boeckman, a QB who took them to the national championship game in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year last season?  How often does a national title contender openly give up on their season to build for their future, yet still maintain a shot at the national title?  And why isn't this analyzed more?

Ohio State 31, Purdue 17

8. Michigan State at Northwestern

Who'd have guessed that this would be such an important Big Ten game, or that these 2 teams would have one loss combined at this point in the season?  Northwestern looks pretty legitimate - veteran QB, solid defense, talented tailback.  They won't win the Big Ten, but they'll be a factor as the season unfolds.

Northwestern 30, Michigan State 24

9. Colorado at Kansas

I whiffed on Colorado as an upset pick last week, but I'm not afraid to take them again.  The Buffaloes look like a team who can spring an upset, and Kansas looks like a team ready to be knocked off, even at home.

Colorado 35, Kansas 30

10. Nebraska at Texas Tech

I guess Nebraska isn't back yet.  Oh well - no one's complaining.  Graham Harrell and his fleet of weapons must be salivating while watching tape of the Cornhuskers defensive performance against Chase Daniel and Missouri, and even against plodding Virginia Tech.  Fifty points might only be the beginning.

Texas Tech 56, Nebraska 35

11. Arizona State at USC

The Sun Devils are playing the wrong team if they want to end their 3 game losing streak.

USC 45, Arizona State 17

12. Tennessee at Georgia

Under normal circumstances, this would qualify as a big game.  But Tennessee looks like a rock solid pick for 6th in the SEC East, which could get Phil Fulmer run out of Knoxville right quick.  Georgia's had a week to stew on their performance against Alabama, and they're playing the right team to take out their frustrations.

Georgia 31, Tennessee 10

13. South Carolina at Kentucky

South Carolina is quietly solid, but they'll struggle against Kentucky's stout defense.

Kentucky 14, South Carolina 9

14. Arizona at Stanford

Two surprising Pac Ten teams match up in Palo Alto.  With the way this conference looks, the winner could be looking at a potential 3rd or 4th place finish.  Arizona is better right now, but as long as Jim Harbaugh is there, Stanford won't be far behind.

Arizona 34, Stanford 28

15. Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Vandy comes off an emotional win and an emotional week with College Gameday in town.  Now they get a taste of what life is like as an SEC contender - a tough road trip against a team that will be geared up to play you, after a hard-fought home win.  I don't have the stats to back it up, but it's a good bet that upsets happen in this scenario more in the SEC than any other conference.  Mississippi State has been pretty bad so far, but competitive at home and at LSU 2 weeks ago.  And they're coming off a bye week.  As much as I hate to pick against the Cinderella Commodores...

Mississippi State 16, Vanderbilt 13