You won't find me among those 95% (I'm in favor of a "plus-one" format, not the 8 or 16 team variety that is usually talked about when people say "playoff" - more on that in the off-season). The reason college football is the greatest sport around is because its regular season is more meaningful than any other. Every game is a playoff game, particularly those played after November 1. We'll see elimination games every week, all rolling ahead to the conference championship games and the announcement of who's made it and who hasn't. If an 8 or 16-team playoff existed, games like this weekends Texas-Texas Tech shootout or Florida-Georgia cocktail party would lose some significant luster. Why diminish the hundreds of meaningful games played over the course of 4 months to have an extra six in December or January?
So now that the November playoffs have arrived, we can do a quick sort-out of the contenders and their best case scenarios for making it to the BCS Championship game. I did this a few weeks ago, remember, and looking back to those predictions makes me look a bit silly. So take these with a grain of salt.
Texas is obviously in the best possible position. Just win and they're in. Even a loss wouldn't take them completely out of the picture. Losing to Texas Tech would mean a drop no lower than 4 - I can't imagine them falling behind Oklahoma - and they'd just need 2 teams to falter, or creep past them on strong computer numbers. I should note that they're also 3/4 of the way through the Big 12 South gauntlet, as opposed to the other 3 contenders, who have a much tougher path remaining.
Alabama is also likely in a win-and-in position, barring an unlikely leap by Penn State past them. A loss for them would be more damaging though, and could eliminate them, especially considering their competition from here on in.
Penn State is in the most tenuous position. A loss would almost certainly eliminate them, and even if they were to win out and have Texas or Alabama lose, they still might not be able to guarantee a spot. The Big 12 South might be the best single division in the history of college football, and when all the titanic games that are to come in the next 5 weeks are said and done, a one-loss Big 12 South team would have awfully strong computer numbers, maybe strong enough to push them past the Nittany Lions. Such a scenario would be the death knell for the BCS, and could be the death knell for Joe Paterno, who would likely have a heart attack trying to campaign for his team. It's good for Penn State that their computer average shot up from 7 to 3 this week - that should (hopefully) be enough to hold their position.
Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State all find themselves in the unfortunate position of playing in the Big 12 South, hereby known as the "NFC East". What a weird season this is - 4 of the 9 legitimate national title contenders all play in the same division, while the ACC and Big East have teams in the top 25 based on reputation alone. What will most likely happen is that Texas will win Saturday and essentially close the door on the championship hopes of these 3, but a Red Raider win would cause all hell to break loose on the plains of Texas and Oklahoma. At that point, anything could happen.
Florida and Georgia play an elimination game this weekend in Jacksonville - winner almost certainly faces Alabama (barring a historic collapse) in the SEC Championship game. Even then they'd still need lots of help to make it to Miami.
USC is lurking, but probably has only a minimal shot at making the title tilt. The Pac Ten is bad, and it would be hard to justify USC finishing above a one loss Big 12 or SEC team. They probably need the most help of all the contenders, because they've got no real chance of helping themselves by whipping a quality opponent down the stretch.
On to the picks. I had my best week last week at 11-4. At this point I'd be happy with just one week at .800 or above!
1. Texas at Texas Tech
As much as I want to, I can't pick Texas Tech. They've knocked off national title contenders in Lubbock before (see Oklahoma, 2007), but I don't trust Mike Leach. The guy is a great offensive mind, but he's enough of a non-traditionalist that he could lose the game on a weird decision. He hates punting, which could bite his team badly against an offense like Texas, and he's got some guy pulled out of the student section kicking extra points. So Red Raider fans better hope it doesn't come down to a field goal. Texas is tired after their journey through the teeth of the Big 12, and this is their first true road game in that stretch, but I think they have enough left in the tank to beat Texas Tech and their offbeat coach.
Texas 37, Texas Tech 31
2. Florida vs. Georgia
Winning in the SEC is all about timing. Last week Florida cruised past a speed bump named Kentucky, while Georgia won a shootout against LSU. LSU isn't what they once were, but they put up a much better fight than the Wildcats, and they still hit hard. Plus, Florida has looked scary good since losing to Ole Miss, and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder after Georgia's Chinese fire drill in the end zone last year.
Florida 35, Georgia 25
3. Nebraska at Oklahoma
Game of the Century this is not. Oklahoma can't seem to stop anybody anymore, but it won't matter if they post another double nickel by halftime.
Oklahoma 58, Nebraska 28
4. Florida State at Georgia Tech
This is a pretty dull week once you get past the big games in Jacksonville and Lubbock, which means I'm stuck picking a bunch of ACC and Big East games between teams trying to crawl into an undeserved BCS spot. Ugh. This could get ugly for me. I'll stick with last week's logic and go against the ranked team here. Florida State is starting to look pretty good, but they've been ranked for 2 weeks, which for an ACC team is like playing with a kryptonite football. And Georgia Tech is pretty good too.
Georgia Tech 23, Florida State 20
5. Miami (FL) at Virginia
I don't think Virginia will keep their streak alive, they're about due for a slip-up.
Miami (FL) 28, Virginia 20
6. South Florida at Cincinnati
Cincy laid an egg in East Hartford last week, making me look bad for touting them as a Big East sleeper. They're a much tougher out at home, but I think South Florida will bounce back and get it done at Nippert Stadium.
South Florida 34, Cincinnati 27
7. West Virginia at Connecticut
UConn is seeking some revenge from their thrashing at the hands of the Mountaineers last Fall. I think they'll get it - the Mountaineers have lost both their road games this year, both against inferior opponents; while UConn has played quite well, and is undefeated, at home.
Connecticut 30, West Virginia 24
8. Clemson at Boston College
I'm tired of picking Clemson and losing.
Boston College 23, Clemson 17
9. Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
In one week, Pitt goes from the new Big East royalty to victims of a backalley beatdown from some dudes from Jersey. Rutgers was averaging 13 points a game before hanging 54 on the Panthers, who were supposed to have a solid defense. Yikes. Pitt does play to the level of its competition, so I think they'll be competitive, but Notre Dame is the stronger team.
Notre Dame 35, Pittsburgh 28
10. Iowa at Illinois
Iowa has been on fire lately, and Illinois has joined the long list of maddeningly inconsistent teams. The Illini will struggle to find an answer to Shonn Greene, but Iowa's defense will have their hands full too. This should be a competitive game, and I'll give the edge to the Illini at home.
Illinois 24, Iowa 21
11. Northwestern at Minnesota
Minnesota is a great story, and this week they face a depleted version of what would be a dangerous opponent. The Wildcats lost both QB C.J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton last week, so while I think they'll press the Gophers, they'll ultimately fall short. Minnesota's resurgence continues.
Minnesota 41, Northwestern 31
12. Wisconsin at Michigan State
Expect a 2 1/2 hour game as both teams pound the ball with bruising running backs. Javon Ringer is the best back on the field, so the Spartans get the nod.
Michigan State 17, Wisconsin 16
13. Tennessee at South Carolina
I think Tennessee is done. They threw a lot into their game with Alabama and they'll come out flat this week against a good Gamecock team. The ol' ballcoach has done a good job building a solid team from what looked like a pretty bleak unit at the start of the season.
South Carolina 20, Tennessee 12
14. Arizona State at Oregon State
Arizona State is another team with a fork stuck in them. The Beavers are tough at home (just ask USC), and won't lose to the walking dead. As a Penn State fan, I'm all about the Beavers right now. Come on Oregon State - strengthen our computer numbers!
Oregon State 34, Arizona State 17
15. Oregon at California
This game is a battle for second in the Pac Ten. Oregon has a stronger resume, only losing to USC (no shame there) and Boise State (looking less and less like a bad loss). Cal has had some consistency issues, though they've been solid at home. I'll go with the Ducks in a shootout.
Oregon 42, California 35
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