Just for fun, here's a few of the many reasons why the ACC is so dumb:
- >> ACC teams appear to have an aversion to being ranked - just when one enters the top 25, they seem to fall back out no more than 2 weeks later. The latest victims are Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and North Carolina. Next in line: Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College. Don't be surprised to see them lose this weekend.
- >> The Sporting News preseason magazine had the ACC rankings stacked like this (current actual place, using tiebreakers, in parenthesis): Atlantic - 1. Clemson (5); 2. Wake Forest (4); 3. Florida State (1); 4. N.C. State (6); 5. Boston College (2); 6. Maryland (3)... Coastal - 1. Virginia Tech (2); 2. Miami (5); 3. North Carolina (4); 4. Georgia Tech (1); 5. Virginia (3); 6. Duke (6)... Note the fact that Duke is the only one in the prognosticated position. Dumb.
- >> Consistency, or lack thereof. Maryland apparently dresses two separate football teams and alternates which one plays each week. Clemson has played alarmingly bad, considering expectation and talent. Georgia Tech is 6-1 and nearly lost to Gardner-Webb. Wake Forest looked very solid in beating Baylor, Ole Miss, and Florida State, then lost to Navy and got shut out by Maryland's A-side. Virginia lost to UConn 45-10, who lost to North Carolina 38-12. What happened when Virginia played UNC? The Cavaliers won, of course. What the crap!
What I think is actually the case is that all 12 teams are astoundingly mediocre, and any one can beat any of the others on any Saturday in any stadium. Even Duke. Which makes their games impossible to predict. Maybe they'll all finish 4-4 in conference and lose their BCS inclusion. That would be spectacular.
You know what else is spectacular? Penn State beating Michigan. And this week's slate of games - I expect this to be the most entertaining weekend of the season. Good matchups all across the board. It's hard to narrow the selection list to 15, but here goes.
1. Penn State at Ohio State
The Big Ten championship game. I wish this game were played 3 weeks ago, but now the Buckeyes have woken up and this looks like a very difficult test for the Nittany Lions. Here's what's going to happen: Ohio State will try to establish the running game behind Beanie Wells, they do not want Terrelle Pryor forced to throw over 20 passes. Such a scenario would end badly. Penn State knows this, and they know Ohio State will see tape all week of Michigan's Brandon Minor gashing the PSU defense. They'll be ready, and they'll bring an extra man, sometimes two, in the box to clog Wells' running lanes. PSU will do all they can do force Pryor into passing situations. If they can, expect a few turnovers. Pryor made some shaky throws last week and got away with them, but I don't think he'll be as fortunate against the Nittany Lion secondary. The x-factor when the Buckeyes have the ball is Pryor's legs. PSU must keep good contain and play disciplined, forcing Pryor to the sidelines. I expect that he'll end up with some long gains, but in the end Penn State's defense will force field goal attempts and stop Wells enough to neutralize the suddenly frisky Buckeye offense. On the other side of the ball, expect a big game from Evan Royster. Ohio State has looked susceptible to the run all season, and Royster is shifty enough to break some long runs. Penn State's game plan will likely mirror Ohio State - establish the run to take the pressure off a relatively untested QB. Daryl Clark will struggle a bit with the quick and opportunistic Ohio State secondary, but pounding the rock with Royster will open some things up for him. And don't forget his running ability too. When it's all sorted out, I think Penn State wins because they'll win the turnover battle (each team will have a few), free Evan Royster and Stephon Green behind a great offensive line, and commit fewer penalties (PSU ranks 105th in total penalties, Ohio State 45th).
Penn State 27, Ohio State 13
2. Georgia at LSU
The fact that this game is in the afternoon, and not at night, is good news for Georgia. Tiger Stadium is not an easy place to walk into and win at night. LSU still doesn't look very impressive to me, particularly on offense, and Georgia has the balance on offense to chip away at the stout Tiger defense.
Georgia 24, LSU 13
3. Oklahoma State at Texas
The Longhorns are on fire right now. Something tells me they'll cool off before the season's over, especially with the string of games they face, but probably not quite yet. Oklahoma State has the tools to contend in this game, especially on defense. They contained Chase Daniel, and they could keep Heisman frontrunner Colt McCoy in check. I think Texas wins this game, unlike all the others, with defense. They too shut down Chase Daniel, and the Cowboy offense isn't quite as potent as Missouri's.
Texas 31, Oklahoma State 21
4. Alabama at Tennessee
It's tempting to take Tennessee here - Alabama has looked somewhat pedestrian in home wins over Kentucky and Mississippi. Tennessee needs a signature win badly, and they'll be ready to rally in this one. But the Tide have rolled in their away and neutral site games, they seem to be the weird team that actually plays better away from home. The Vols keep it close, but Alabama escapes again.
Alabama 20, Tennessee 16
5. USC at Arizona
USC has struggled against Arizona lately, and this is Mike Stoops' best team in his tenure there. This might be a trendy upset pick, but I think USC has this once circled, knowing that people will be looking for them to stumble in the desert. The Trojans win big again.
USC 42, Arizona 17
6. Virginia Tech at Florida State
Florida State is ranked, which means they'll lose, following ACC protocol.
Virginia Tech 21, Florida State 20
7. Virginia at Georgia Tech
Ditto for Georgia Tech.
Virginia 26, Georgia Tech 21
8. Boston College at North Carolina
And Boston College. I'm not giving these ACC games any more thought than that, knowing they're all 50/50 propositions anyway.
North Carolina 34, Boston College 17
9. Texas Tech at Kansas
Texas Tech has stubbed their toe a bit in the last few weeks and look pretty vulnerable for an upset here. I actually moved Kansas up into my top 15 this week in spite of their loss to Oklahoma, they showed some moxie in hanging with an angry Sooner squad in Norman. Todd Reesing and the Kansas offense will use the short passing game to slice the Red Raider defense with long drives, keeping the Texas Tech offense off the field. This could be the most entertaining game of the weekend.
Kansas 34, Texas Tech 31
10. Auburn at West Virginia
Before the season started, this was the second sexiest non-conference matchup behind Ohio State-USC. Not so much now. Auburn's gone through an offensive coordinator and West Virginia might go through a head coach if Bill Stewart isn't careful. Lots of talent on both teams, but not a lot of sizzle on the field. I'm going with West Virginia because they've already played a Thursday night game this year, which will give them a marked advantage in preparation. That could be huge - we've already seen what kind of craziness the erratic shortened week of prep brings on.
West Virginia 19, Auburn 13
11. Cincinnati at Connecticut
The Big East is like the ACC's little brother - just as mediocre and evenly matched across the board. A few weeks ago I told you the UConn was a sleeper pick to take the conference, and now I'm about to tell you it's Cincinnati. The Bearcats only loss was at Oklahoma in a game that was closer than the score indicated, and they're still flying very much under the radar. They have a hungry defense that forces turnovers, and a schedule that sets up nicely - both Pitt and South Florida visit Nippert Stadium. A win at UConn could be a springboard to much bigger things. I think they'll do it - the Huskies have fallen off a bit in the last few weeks, culminating in a bad loss to Rutgers.
Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 17
12. Michigan State at Michigan
Each week brings us closer to the inevitable and satisfying conclusion of Michigan missing a bowl game. This game puts them on death's door. Don't be fooled by their woodshed beating at the hands of Ohio State - the Spartans are a good team. In years past their humiliating home loss to the Buckeyes would derail their entire season, but Mark Dantonio has restored order and discipline to the Michigan State program.
Michigan State 35, Michigan 27
13. Colorado at Missouri
Missouri had better be careful. Two straight losses have knocked them clean out of national championship contention, and they could easily drop this game if they don't show up ready to play. Weirdly, they still have an excellent chance of winning the Big 12 - both losses were to South Division teams and if they run the table they'll win the North, perhaps giving them another crack at Texas or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game. Kansas is the only major hurdle remaining, and the Jayhawks already have a conference loss of their own. Missouri had better be aware of this fact when they take the field Saturday, or else Colorado could make this possibility a mere dream. I think the Tigers will be ready and take out some frustration on the Buffaloes.
Missouri 48, Colorado 28
14. Oregon at Arizona State
Arizona State is a team desperately in need of a win. They started the season in the top 15 and have plummeted to 2-4 after 4 straight losses. I think they'll win in a late-night shootout against a good Oregon offense, getting their season headed back in the right direction.
Arizona State 42, Oregon 35
15. Notre Dame at Washington
The Ty Willingham Memorial Classic. Soon Willingham will be the former head coach at each of these schools, which is a shame because he's not nearly as bad a coach as people have made him out to be. He was the victim of overzealous expectations in South Bend, and the victim of overzealous scheduling in Seattle. You know he'll have his troops prepared for the visit of his former team, and the Huskies will keep this game close and entertaining. Notre Dame gets the win to escape embarrassment - barely.
Notre Dame 31, Washington 28
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