At first glance, I notice 2 trends in this bowl season: dud matchups and virtual home games. With 68 teams playing postseason football, some of the matchups come out somewhat less than glitzy. Contests between Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech, or Southern Miss and Troy, certainly aren't going to make anyone skip the ol' office Christmas party. In fact, there are really only a few games worth tuning into even if your team isn't playing: Florida-Oklahoma in the national championship game, Penn State-USC in the granddaddy, and TCU-Boise State in the previously discussed SDCCU Pointsettia Bowl. A few others hold enough interest to flip over from "Miracle on 34th Street" every now and then, but a majority are just plain duds. That's what you get when bowls are left taking 6-6 Sun Belt and MAC teams to fill their spot. There are also about a dozen teams traveling by bus rather than by air to their postseason destination. Georgia Tech stays in Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Lousiana Tech gets to drive on down to Shreveport. Vanderbilt goes crosstown for the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl, which just missed the cut of awesome bowl names. And so on. This is probably a sign of the current state of the economy - bowl execs wisely know that fans of 4 or 5 loss teams aren't going to travel cross-country for these games, but they might drive 100 miles. We'll see if that actually fills the stadiums. This trend is also an important consideration in making predictions on the games.
Before I get to the picks, let me invite you to compete against me in ESPN's "College Bowl Mania" game - go to espn.com, search "College Bowl Mania", create an entry, make sure it's in the "confidence" category, then search for the group "The Freshman Fifteen", password "fifteen". It may take 57 steps, but it'll be worth it. And it might show just how paltry my readership is!
On to the lesser bowls - I'll pick the first 17 of the bowl season, then prognosticate on the rest next Monday.
1. Eaglebank Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Navy is one of the teams staying close to home, taking just a short voyage up the Potomac to Washington, and they play a team they've already beaten this season. So the smart pick is the Middies, right? Wrong - Wake will be seeking to avenge their early season loss, and they've got extra time to prepare for Navy's unconventional option offense.
Wake Forest 27, Navy 21
2. New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Two western schools in a game no one will watch. Colorado State's deserving of some credit for picking themselves off the mat of a few lean years to qualify for a bowl, but Fresno's the better team.
Fresno State 31, Colorado State 17
3. magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis vs. South Florida
Or as I like to call it, "The Jack". I love that capital J. This one should probably read "Memphis at South Florida", and it should play out that way. Lots of Bull fans will show up, and Matt Groethe will ride the home crowd to lead his team to an easy win.
South Florida 37, Memphis 16
4. Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. Arizona
Our first bowl game with a top 25 team. BYU beat 2 Pac-Ten teams this year, but neither were of the caliber of Arizona. Arizona's defense will pressure Max Hall and the BYU passing attack, who have been susceptible to blitzing, pressure defenses. But I think BYU gets the job done, as Arizona is a team that hasn't played well away from home, winning only 2 away games this season and losing to New Mexico, a Mountain West also-ran. The MWC dominance over the Pac-Ten continues.
BYU 30, Arizona 23
5. R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Troy
Troy's a better team than people realize, sticking with Ohio State and almost taking down LSU, and they've played their best games at the end of the season. They meet a Southern Miss team that's way off their usual standard.
Troy 38, Southern Miss 21
6. San Diego County Credit Union Pointsettia Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU
This game should be fun. TCU's 2 losses this year came to Oklahoma and Utah, two BCS bowl teams, and they'd like to prove they're worth mentioning in the argument of which teams got snubbed by the BCS. Boise State is foremost on that list. Kellen Moore is a fantastic QB, and should pilot Boise State to several more storybook seasons, but he's not faced a defense like the one the Horned Frogs will bring him next Tuesday. The WAC was way down this year and Boise State hasn't really been challenged since their early season win at Oregon. They will be against TCU. The Horned Frogs pull away on the strength of turnovers and short fields in the second half.
TCU 34, Boise State 20
7. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Notre Dame
Another bowl game that acts as a home game for one of its entrants. Notre Dame hasn't beaten a team with an above .500 record in quite some time, so there's no sense thinking they will here. Hawaii, while not nearly as talented as the Fighting Irish, will be pumped to have such a storied program come to them, distracted by the whole Hawaii experience. They'll be ready to play. The "Fire Charlie Weis" era of Notre Dame football enters its next chapter.
Hawaii 27, Notre Dame 23
8. Motor City Bowl: Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan
The trend of glorified home games continue, as the Chippewas make the short trek to Detroit to face a sorely disappointing Florida Atlantic squad. The Owls finished 6-6 after murmurs of an undefeated season and "best Sun Belt team ever".
Central Michigan 45, Florida Atlantic 31
9. Meinike Car Care Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina
Saturday, December 27 brings 3 of the subtly interesting bowl games, all including ACC teams! You know how I feel about ACC teams. But unpredictability breeds interest, and this trio of games are worth keeping an eye on. The first is West Virginia vs. North Carolina in Charlotte. Charlotte is in North Carolina. Meaning it's almost a home game for the Tar Heels. That's enough criteria for me make the selection. (Remember, don't overthink games involving the ACC!)
North Carolina 21, West Virginia 16
10. Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Florida State
Wisconsin righted itself nicely after a disastrous 4 game losing streak in the middle of the season. It seems that after the funk of seeing their Big Ten title and BCS dreams crushed they've resurrected themselves as a team that is, well, for lack of a better word, decent. Nothing will grab your attention or scare you, but they do the little things right. I think they'll upset a young Florida State team that may just show up rather unfocused.
Wisconsin 28, Florida State 20
11. Emerald Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. California
Miami has to travel across the country to play in the type of bowl their program has no desire to be in. So they already have one strike against them. Cal's campus is about 7 miles from this game's location. Strike two. I can't come up with a good third strike, but I'm sure it's out there. Maybe one of the Golden Bears underrated running backs will provide it.
California 23, Miami (FL) 20
12. Independence Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
The worst matchup in bowl history? Maybe. It's certainly on the short list. Louisiana Tech joins the list of those playing in virtual home games, so I'm going with them and completely forgetting that this game is even on the schedule.
Louisiana Tech 27, Northern Illinois 17
13. Papajohns.com Bowl: N.C. State vs. Rutgers
The way Rutgers has closed its season, it deserves to be playing in a better bowl than one named after a pizza place's website. They should continue their torrid offensive place against an improving, but still outclassed, Wolfpack team.
Rutgers 42, N.C. State 21
14. Valero Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Northwestern
I have this as my "most confident" pick in the aforementioned College Bowl Mania contest. Northwestern's had a great season, but they're no match for Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and the Missouri offense.
Missouri 41, Northwestern 24
15. Roady's Humanitarian Bowl: Maryland vs. Nevada
If I were a Maryland fan, I'd have given up on this team months ago. They've been the hardest, and most aggravating team to predict this season. And that's saying a lot, considering the caliber of the teams they share a conference with. They have had the relative consistency of playing much better at home than away, with the notable exception of a win at Clemson before they were dead. So I'm taking Nevada - if Maryland didn't travel well to Virginia, they aren't traveling well to Boise.
Nevada 26, Maryland 23
16. Texas Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Rice
Rice caps off a feelgood season with a crosstown trip to Reliant Stadium to face Western Michigan. This game might look pretty blase if you were just to read the team names, but these are 2 under-the-radar 9-3 teams looking to finish one of the best years in their respective school's history. Every bowl season has one of those wild, unpredictable, offensive explosion games, and I think this one is it this time around. Watch it if you happen to be one of the 14 people who get NFL Network. Rice wins on the lethal passing combo of Chase Clement to Jarett Dillard.
Rice 55, Western Michigan 49
17. Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Or that wild, crazy, high-scoring festival could happen in San Diego when the Cowboys and Ducks take the field together. Oregon's scored 120 points in its last 2 games, and Oklahoma State kept up with the scintillating offenses of the Big 12 South. I think Oklahoma State wins behind a stronger defense and a bit more firepower. This one is worth a few looks too.
Oklahoma State 48, Oregon 35
Next week: the bowl predictions continue as we venture into the BCS.
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