For now, we'll turn again to the field, not computer ratings and jabbering media, for the field is where games (but not championships apparently) are won and lost. It might be easy to write in Oklahoma and the Alabama-Florida winner for the BCS Championship Game, but don't be hasty. History tells us that weird things happen on the last day of the season, and there have been much more shocking upsets than Missouri beating Oklahoma would be, and more perplexing things have happened in the BCS from the penultimate standings to the final one.
In fact, let's take a look at that history. I've taken a look at the results of final weekend games involving a team in legitimate national championship contention to see just how many eleventh hour upsets have occurred. I've drawn the line at the point when conference championships were first played in 1992 (is it really that long ago?!). Here are the results:
1992: #2 Alabama def. #12 Florida 28-21 (SEC Championship)
1993: none applicable
1994: #3 Alabama lost to #6 Florida 24-23 (SEC Championship)
1995: #2 Florida def. #24 Arkansas 34-3 (SEC Championship)
1996: #3 Nebraska lost to unranked Texas 37-27 (Big 12 Championship); #4 Florida def. #11 Alabama 45-30 (SEC Championship)
1997: #2 Nebraska def. #14 Texas A&M 54-14 (Big 12 Championship); #3 Tennessee def. #11 Auburn 30-29 (SEC Championship)
1998: #1 Tennessee def. #23 Mississippi State 24-14 (SEC Championship); #2 Kansas State lost to #10 Texas A&M 36-33 (Big 12 Championship); #3 UCLA lost to unranked Miami (FL) 49-45
1999: #3 Nebraska def. #12 Texas 22-6 (Big 12 Championship)
2000: #1 Oklahoma def. #8 Kansas State 27-24 (Big 12 Championship)
2001: #1 Miami (FL) def. #14 Virginia Tech 26-24; #2 Tennessee lost to #21 LSU 31-20 (SEC Championship); #3 Texas lost to #9 Colorado 39-37 (Big 12 Championship)
2002: #1 Miami (FL) def. #18 Virginia Tech 56-45; #4 Georgia def. #22 Arkansas 30-3 (SEC Championship)
2003: #1 Oklahoma lost to #13 Kansas State 35-7 (Big 12 Championship); #2 USC def. unranked Oregon State 52-28; #3 LSU def. #5 Georgia 34-13 (SEC Championship)
2004: #1 USC def. unranked UCLA 29-24; #2 Oklahoma def. unranked Colorado 42-3 (Big 12 Championship); #3 Auburn def. #15 Tennessee 38-28 (SEC Championship)
2005: #1 USC def. #16 UCLA 66-19; #2 Texas def. unranked Colorado 70-3 (Big 12 Championship); #4 LSU lost to #7 Georgia 34-14 (SEC Championship)
2006: #2 USC lost to unranked UCLA 13-9; #4 Florida def. #9 Arkansas 38-28 (SEC Championship)
2007: #1 Missouri lost to #9 Oklahoma 38-17 (Big 12 Championship); #2 West Virginia lost to unranked Pittsburgh 13-9; #6 Virginia Tech def. #11 Boston College 30-16 (ACC Championship)*; #7 LSU def. #14 Tennessee 21-14 (SEC Championship)*
* these games included from 2007 because #7 LSU leapt to #2 and into the BCS Championship game (because I included #7 LSU I had to include #6 Virginia Tech)
For those scoring at home, the record of national title contenders in these final weekend games is a rather pedestrian 21-11, for a winning percentage of .656. The biggest upset of the bunch is probably bowlless Pitt cutting down West Virginia last year in Morgantown, but there have been 3 other unranked teams who've thrown a wrench into the national title process during this stretch. So Missouri (ranked #20) taking out Oklahoma isn't at all unfeasible.
I also learned from this research that this weekend's Alabama-Florida matchup is the biggest conference championship game ever, according to the rankings. Never before has a conference title game matched top 5 teams. And with that, let's get to the picks, shall we?
1. SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida
Being the biggest conference championship game ever, this game deserves top billing. In the past month, once this matchup became inevitable, I've felt that Florida was a clear favorite. But now I'm not so sure. The Crimson Tide have been the most steady team this season, and while they don't impress anyone with their margins of victory, they silently just take care of business. And unlike the other BCS championship contenders, they do it with a bruising defense. This is unquestionably their biggest challenge yet - stopping Tim Tebow and the red hot Gators. A classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object. I do think there are points to be had against Alabama's defense, and that Florida is a team that can find them. A big factor will be whether or not Percy Harvin plays. My guess is that he'll see limited time, and they'll use him largely as a decoy - they know that if the Tide are thinking about where Harvin is, they'll be a split second slower in reacting to the other skill players the Gators employ. A bigger issue though for Alabama is how their offense will fare against Florida's strong D. The Tide have some gamebreakers, but their offense is the weakest of the 4 units that will take the field Saturday afternoon. And that, ultimately, will be the deciding factor in this game.
Florida 27, Alabama 17
2. Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma vs. Missouri
Oklahoma's offensive numbers are staggering. At least 35 points in every game. Sixty or more points in 4 - their last 4. Fifty or more in 8 (and they scored 45 and 49 in 2 others). A scoring average of 53.3. It is unjust that they passed Texas in the BCS standings, but you can't argue with numbers like that. They have one of the most potent offenses of all time, and look almost unbeatable, especially against a team like Missouri, whose defense isn't scaring anyone. But, as noted, watch out. Don't put them in the championship game yet. This scenario reminds me a bit of the 2003 season, when a seemingly unstoppable Oklahoma team who was putting up gaudy offensive numbers faced a relatively average Kansas State team. A national championship game was a foregone conclusion. Too bad Kansas State didn't get that memo, and they pasted the Sooners 35-7. Ironically Oklahoma still ended up in the BCS title game, losing 21-14 to LSU. But even with those similarities, I can't pick against the Sooners. Missouri's defense isn't as strong as that Kansas State squad, and this Oklahoma offense is better than the 2003 version. Bob Stoops gets a monkey off his back with a win in a championship game.
Oklahoma 56, Missouri 35
3. ACC Championship: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
After all the lunacy that the ACC brought us this year, we end up with a rematch of last year's championship game. This will be the fourth time in 2 seasons that the Eagles and Hokies match up. Boston College has won both regular season tilts, with Virginia Tech taking the ACC championship last year. As always, this is a toss up, and I'm going with Boston College simply because they have a better record away from home (4-1 vs. 2-4 for the Hokies).
Boston College 23, Virginia Tech 17
4. C-USA Championship: East Carolina vs. Tulsa
East Carolina was the darling of the nation after 2 weeks this season (I even made an argument for them to be ranked #1!), and Tulsa made some noise by mid-season, racking up boatloads of points before losing to lowly Arkansas and getting throttled by Houston 70-30. It's hard to pick a team that once gave up 70 points to win their conference, but such is Conference USA. And East Carolina's offense isn't going to threaten the speed limit anytime soon.
Tulsa 42, East Carolina 30
5. MAC Championship: Ball State vs. Buffalo
Turner Gill has done a tremendous job at Buffalo, and I'm surprised he's not on the short list of every program in the nation who's looking for a coach. But the Bulls aren't in the same class as Ball State. The Cardinals storybook season continues.
Ball State 38, Buffalo 21
6. USC at UCLA
If you looked at a box score with the following numbers, what would you guess the final score to be? Total yards: Team A - 306, Team B - 122. First downs: Team A - 18, Team B - 10. Third down percentage: Team A - 6-17, Team B - 2-13. You'd guess something along the lines of "Team A 24, Team B 3", wouldn't you? Nope! The final score of UCLA's game last week was Arizona State (Team B) 34, UCLA (Team A) 9. What? That's what happens when you allow the opposing defense to return 3 interceptions and 1 fumble for touchdowns. Even the Sun Devils field goal drives were set up by a long punt return and a poor punt by UCLA. Arizona State employed a "Display Case Offense" - simply possessing the football, nothing more - and won by 25. And now the Bruins face the best defense in the nation. How many defensive touchdowns will USC have this week? UCLA's best strategy may be to punt the ball on first down and hope for the best on defense.
USC 41, UCLA 3
7. Navy vs. Army
The game everyone should tune in to, even for just a few minutes. These men will lay everything on the line in this game, only to have to lay even more on the line in combat in perhaps only a few months time. Navy's been dominant in the series of late, but you never know what might happen when Army and Navy collide.
Navy 31, Army 24
8. Pittsburgh at Connecticut
The Big East race is decided, but the conference likes extending their season to this final weekend. So we have 3 conference games on the slate. All are quality matchups. In this one, 2 of the best running backs in college football take the field - LeSean McCoy of Pitt and Donald Brown of UConn. McCoy is more explosive, Brown is more steady. I think both young men break 100 yards, but Pitt wins the war and completes a career-saving season for Dave Wannstedt.
Pittsburgh 27, Connecticut 21
9. South Florida at West Virginia
South Florida is a team that looks dead in the water, just hanging on until the season is finally over.
West Virginia 30, South Florida 20
10. Louisville at Rutgers
For Rutgers, it's the tale of 2 seasons: a 1-5 start followed by 5 straight wins and bowl eligibility. Their offense suddenly awoke in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and they haven't looked back since. They won't here either, keeping Louisville out of a bowl again.
Rutgers 34, Louisville 24
11. Cincinnati at Hawaii
The Bearcats get a second bowl trip of sorts, traveling to Hawaii before they trek down to Miami for a likely Orange Bowl berth. They might just win both. Head Coach Brian Kelly might be on a superpower program sideline near you by this time next year.
Cincinnati 35, Hawaii 17
12. Arizona State at Arizona
As noted above, Arizona State's offense acted as a mere placeholder against a below average UCLA team last week. On the road against a better defense, they're not likely to fare a whole lot better. The Wildcats win this rivalry game and keep their enemy from the postseason.
Incidentally, some info about this old rivalry: Name - Territorial Cup. Series - Arizona leads 44-36-1.
Arizona 20, Arizona State 16
13. Washington at California
Washington puts a cap on the worst season of football in their history.
California 37, Washington 17
14. Arkansas State at Troy
Most teams are done with their regular seasons, so I'm left with 3 Sun Belt games to fill the last 2 spots of the 15. This is the best matchup of the 3 - basically a conference championship game. Three of Troy's 4 losses have come against major conference powers - Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and LSU. They hung with Ohio State and nearly beat LSU, coughing up a huge lead in the second half. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has a major conference scalp in Texas A&M. I know nothing about the Sun Belt, but it seems that these are 2 quality teams, and both will likely play in December bowls.
Troy 31, Arkansas State 28
15. Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana-Lafayette
Completely a guess, but I'm taking Middle Tennessee State. They did beat Maryland.
Middle Tennessee State 33, Louisiana-Lafayette 27
Bonus pick! The only other game on the calendar is between Sun Belt bottom feeder Florida International and Division 1-A's newest team, Western Kentucky. Florida International is most famous for their ugly brawl against Miami (FL) ("they should finish it in the parking lot after the game!"), and Western Kentucky is most famous for their red blob of a mascot that appears regularly on ESPN's "This is SportsCenter" commercials. What is that thing anyway? A hill? A Sesame Street reject? A bad representation of one of the Pac-Man ghosts?
Florida International 23, Western Kentucky 10
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