Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The 4-Year Rankings

Toward the end of this college football season, I had the idea to figure out which teams had the most success over the previous 4-year span. I thought this would give an interesting perspective on which programs are really the top of the class, which underachieved, and which were simply overrated and underrated. At first I gave it the title of "Senior Class Rankings" - which outgoing senior classes were the best during their tenure as big time college football players. But it was pointed out to me that the title wouldn't truly assess the senior class - lots of players redshirt and stay in school 5 years, some guys (the most talented ones) enter the NFL draft early, etc. Still, 4 years is the traditional college number, and seems to be a good metric to evaluate all the programs of the nation against one another.

The results are interesting. I did this by record only, not accounting strength of schedule or conference affiliation, so some of these rankings will look funny at first. But sports is about winning games, and this is a list of who's done that the most. Here are some observations before we hit the list:
  • Just 12 teams averaged 10 wins or more per season, generally accepted as the mark of a great season
  • None of the 3 teams who've won national championships (Texas, Florida, LSU) in this span ranked #1 in the 4-year rankings
  • The SEC, as expected, had the most teams in the top 25 with 5
  • Some traditional powers look quite pedestrian when you look from a broad perspective. Examples: Michigan #39, Notre Dame #43, Miami (FL) #52
  • First and last in the... SEC: Florida #5, Mississippi State #94
  • Pac Ten: USC #1, Washington #113
  • Big Ten: Ohio State #4, Illinois #94 (in spite of a Rose Bowl appearance!)
  • ACC: Virginia Tech #10, Duke #120 (dead last)
  • Big 12: Texas #2, Iowa State #101
  • Big East: West Virginia #6, Syracuse #115 (tied with castaway Temple)
  • Mtn. West: TCU #7 (wow!), UNLV #111
  • WAC: Boise State #3, Utah State #118
  • C-USA: Tulsa #19, Tulane #110
  • MAC: Central Michigan #34, Temple #115 (not a full member during entire stretch)
  • Sun Belt: Troy #46, North Texas #119
  • Independents: Navy #28, Army #107
  • Notable underrateds: TCU #7, Boston College #14, Wisconsin #15, Rutgers #23
  • Notable overrateds: Clemson #31 (always seem to be ranked higher), Florida State #39, South Carolina #52 (ol' Ballcoach not worth the hype?), Pittsburgh #60
Now to the master list. I'll add comments on the top 15 (fulfilling the freshman 15 name), then display the remaining 105 in order, with a comment here and there as I feel like it.

1. USC (Record: 46-6, .885 win %)
No surprise here. When you recruit an all star team every year, you ought to win nearly 9 of every 10 games. It's probably surprising that their record isn't better, and that the Trojans haven't won a national championship. For that matter, they've only competed for it once, in 2005 when they lost to Texas in an epic Rose Bowl. Some of the 6 losses have been head-scratchers: home against Stanford, at Oregon State twice.

2. Texas (45-7, .865)
Maybe you wouldn't expect the Longhorns to be ahead of a team like Florida, but here they are. Won the 2005 national championship, that team shockingly being the last BCS conference school to go undefeated.

3. Boise State (44-8, .846)
Here's where you cry wolf and question the validity of this ranking system. Boise State certainly wasn't the 3rd best team in the country over the past 4 years. But they did emerge as an elite non-BCS program, and keep beating everyone they face. And they've disproved the myth that they were a one-hit wonder with their storybook win over Oklahoma a few Fiesta Bowls ago. The Broncos may rise higher in next year's list: 4 of their 8 losses in the last 4 years were in 2005.

4. Ohio State (43-8, .843)
If the Buckeyes could win BCS games, they'd be a runaway #1. Their record in these 4 years: 1-3. Come through in big games, and Ohio State is sitting on top of the college football world with a 46-5 record and back-to-back national championships.

5. Florida (44-9, .830)
Two national championships can't boost them past #5, with 3 and 4 loss seasons in their off years. But 9 losses in 4 years is awfully good in the brutal SEC.

6. West Virginia (42-9, .824)
A bit of a surprise to see the Mountaineers this high on the list. They're the first in the rankings other than Boise State to have not competed for a national title. Probably more a product of a weak conference (next highest Big East team is Rutgers at #23) than anything else, but they've fared well in bowl games too.

7. TCU (41-10, .804)
Probably the biggest eye-opener on the list is TCU sitting at #7. They never seem to make a national splash, aren't one of the non-BCS teams to crack into a BCS bowl, yet steadily keep winning. The Horned Frogs have 3 11-win seasons in 4 years, and if not for a disappointing 8-5 showing in 2007 would be ranked even higher.

8. LSU (42-11, .792)
An 8-5 campaign last year dropped the Bayou Bengals to #8, after 3 straight seasons with just 2 losses each.

9. Penn State (40-11, .784)
So much for all the talk that the game has passed JoePa by. The Nittany Lions have been one of the most consistent teams of the past 4 years, ever since the program's resurgence from mediocrity in 2005. Leave the old man alone, he can still get it done, and has been within a whiff of the national title twice in 4 years!

10 (tie). Oklahoma (42-12, .778)
Sooners must be pretty envious of Texas, sitting way up there at #2.

10 (tie). Virginia Tech (42-12, .778)
I'm surprised any ACC school cracked the top 10, but the Hokies have been a model of consistency, one of only 4 teams to have 10 wins or more in each of the last 4 years. But they just can't seem to get to the top of the mountain and get Frank Beamer a national title. They're one of those teams floating around #10 every season.

12. Georgia (40-12, .769)
Nothing to add here, Mark Richt runs a tight ship and gets results year in and year out.

13. BYU (38-13, .745)
The third non-BCS team in the top 15, even in spite of a 6-6 2005 season. Like TCU, haven't broken into the BCS bowl mix, but they've come close.

14. Boston College (39-14, .736)
Slowly but surely they've built a consistent winner in Boston, first Tom O'Brien, then Jeff Jagodzinski. Will the next coach continue the consistent winning or will the Eagles recent success fade away?

15. Wisconsin (38-14, .731)
Another under-the-radar winner, and another team who can't quite break into the next level.

16(t). Texas Tech (37-14, .725)
16(t). Utah (37-14, .725)
18. Oregon (36-15, .706)
19. Tulsa (38-16, .704)
20. Missouri (37-16, .698)
21. Auburn (34-16, .680) - first team on the list with a sub-.500 season, 5-7 in 2008
22. Alabama (35-17, .673)
23(t). California (34-17, .667)
23(t). Rutgers (34-17, .667)
25. Hawaii (35-18, .660)
26. Kansas (33-17, .660) - I'd say Mark Mangino's been a success
27. Louisville (32-17, .653)
28(t). Cincinnati (33-18, .647)
28(t). Navy (33-18, .647)
28(t). Oregon State (33-18, .647)
31(t). Clemson (32-19, .627)
31(t). Wake Forest (32-19, .627) - Clemson fans probably cringe upon seeing a dead heat with lowly Wake Forest
31(t). South Florida (32-19, .627) - the sleeping giant still rests
34(t). Central Michigan (32-20, .615)
34(t). Georgia Tech (32-20, .615)
34(t). Houston (32-30, .615)
37. Nebraska (31-20, .608)
38. Michigan (30-20, .600)
39. Florida State (31-21, .596) - not exactly the glory days for this murderers row of glamor programs
40. Western Michigan (29-20, .592)
41. Nevada (30-21, .588)
42(t). Arizona State (29-21, .580)
42(t). Notre Dame (29-21, .580) - I'm sure administration wasn't expecting to be behind Nevada and 2 directional Michigan schools in total wins when they hired Charlie Weis
42(t). Tennessee (29-21, .580) - an ignominious exit for Philip Fulmer
45. Southern Mississippi (30-22, .577) - the last of the 30 win teams
46. Troy (28-21, .571)
47. East Carolina (29-22, .569)
48(t). Ball State (28-22, .560)
48(t). Iowa (28-22, .560)
48(t). Maryland (28-22, .560)
48(t). Miami (FL) (28-22, .560)
48(t). South Carolina (28-22, .560)
53. Fresno State (28-23, .549)
54(t). Arkansas (27-23, .540)
54(t). Oklahoma State (27-23, .540)
54(t). UCLA (27-23, .540)
57(t). Connecticut (26-23, .531)
57(t). Virginia (26-23, .531)
57(t). Northwestern (26-23, .531) - shocked to find they have an overall winning record
60. Pittsburgh (25-23, .521)
61. Kentucky (26-24, .520)
62(t). Air Force (25-24, .510)
62(t). Michigan State (25-24, .510)
62(t). Texas A&M (25-24, .510)
62(t). New Mexico (25-24, .510)
66. UCF (26-25, .510)
67(t). Purdue (25-25, .500)
67(t). Bowling Green (24-24, .500) 
69(t). Arkansas State (23-25, .479)
69(t). San Jose State (23-25, .479)
71(t). Louisiana Tech (23-26, .469) - first 10 loss season on the list
71(t). Ohio (23-26, .469)
73(t). Arizona (22-26, .458)
73(t). Kansas State (22-26, .458) - good move to bring Bill Snyder back
73(t). Toledo (22-26, .458)
73(t). UTEP (22-26, .458)
77. Florida Atlantic (22-27, .449)
78. Louisiana-Lafayette (21-26, .447)
79(t). Memphis (22-28, .440)
79(t). Northern Illinois (22-28, .440)
81(t). Vanderbilt (21-27, .438)
81(t). Middle Tennessee State (21-27, .438)
83(t). Akron (21-28, .429)
83(t). N.C. State (21-28, .429)
83(t). Rice (21-28, .429) - last 10 win season on the list, and only team with a 10 win and 10 loss season in last 4 years
86. Minnesota (21-29, .420) - amazingly played in 3 bowl games in 4 years, with a 1-11 season thrown in
87. North Carolina (20-28, .417)
88. Colorado State (20-29, .408)
89(t). Louisiana-Monroe (19-28, .404)
89(t). Wyoming (19-28, .404)
91. Colorado (20-30, .400)
92(t). Indiana (19-29, .396)
92(t). Mississippi (19-29, .396)
94(t). Illinois (18-30, .375)
94(t). Mississippi State (18-30, .375)
94(t). Western Kentucky (9-15, .375) - only 2 years in full-time D-1 play
97(t). Miami (OH) (17-31, .354)
97(t). Washington State (17-31, .354)
99(t). Baylor (16-31, .340)
99(t). Marshall (16-31, .340)
101. Iowa State (16-32, .333)
102. Buffalo (16-33, .327)
103. Stanford (15-32, .319)
104(t). Kent State (14-33, .298)
104(4). UAB (14-33, .298)
106. San Diego State (14-34, .292)
107(t). Army (13-34, .277)
107(t). SMU (13-34, .277)
109(t). Eastern Michigan (12-35, .255)
109(t). Tulane (12-35, .255)
111(t). Florida International (11-36, .234) - first winless season on the list
111(t). UNLV (11-36, .234)
113. Washington (11-37, .229)
114. New Mexico State (11-38, .224)
115(t). Syracuse (10-37, .213)
115(t). Temple (10-37, .213)
117(t). Idaho (9-38, .191)
117(t). Utah State (9-38, .191)
119. North Texas (8-39, .170)
120. Duke (6-41, .128) - March madness is almost here

There you have it. I'll make that a yearly tradition the week after national signing day. A nice cold dose of reality after a week of wishful thinking and dreaming of what might be around the bend.

Next week: the best 15 rivalries in college football.

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