The Four Tops

I always love the championship events of my favorite sports, and the Men's College Basketball Championship is one of my favorites. It's weird though, about a month after it's over I have a hard time remembering who won. I think it's the culmination of the journey that makes it so special, the fact that it's the apex of a 3 week long cornucopia of colors, buzzer-beaters, and bleary-eyed mornings after late night thrillers. Sometimes I look more forward to the close of the broadcast than the game itself, CBS's tradition of running highlights and memories of the tournament set to "One Shining Moment", possibly the corniest song of all time, yet so appropriate and fitting. If you heard "One Shining Moment" come on the radio unannounced you'd wind up in hysterics by the end of the first verse. The song had to be recorded in a cornfield somewhere, or at the Orville Reddenbacher factory, it's just laced with maize.

And so we arrive at the end again, this time in Motown. Who will have the last shining moment? I'll give my take in a few minutes, but first I have a few loose ends to tie up and commentary to make.

The Imperfect Bracket

I told you a few weeks go of my dream of a perfect bracket, only to have it wind up in the ignominious result of an 0-fer on my Final Four picks. I think I've only done that once before, at least that I can remember. Two is usually my norm. But this year I fell flat. Even with a second try at it last week. I did go 7 for 8 in the sweet sixteen though, only losing on Purdue. But I only stuck with them out of sheer stubbornness.

Late Round Bracket Rules

I thought it would be worth visiting my late round bracket rules, to see how they held up.

9. Pick at least one team seeded 6 or higher to make the elite 8

Verdict: Broken. Arizona was the only possibility and they forgot they made the sweet 16.

10. Add up the total of the seed numbers of your final 4 teams, and make sure it's between 5 and 10

Verdict: Upheld. Total this year: 7. To quote myself: "Usually the Final 4 looks like this: two 1 seeds, a 2 seed, and a 3 or 4 seed." How prophetic.

Seven for 10 so far, not bad. Stay tuned for the final tally next week.

Comments on Calipari

Everyone is focusing on the angle of John Calipari's arrival at Kentucky and the 6 or 7 national championships that apparently are automatically theirs within the next 10 years, but the lost part of the story of Calipari's bolting to the Big Blue is what will happen at Memphis. I'm afraid we might be about to witness the end of an era: the era of teams from non-major (aka non-BCS) conferences actually competing for national championships. They've already been shut out of it in football, and the power consolidation within the elite 6 conferences continues in basketball as well. Since the Big East grabbed most of the consistently competitive Conference USA teams, we've seen fewer and fewer teams invited to the NCAA tournament from smaller leagues. This may be more an anomaly than a trend, but it's getting tougher and tougher to compete in recruiting if you're a school in a league like the Atlantic 10. There just isn't a draw - you can't sell the competition level like you can at an SEC or Big East school. And the big schools who have loads of cash to throw around gobble up quality, up-and-coming coaches from the minor leagues. And the list goes on: lucrative TV contracts, media focus, bigger arenas, better training facilities, etc, etc. More and more we're seeing a breaking apart of have's and have not's, and the power consolidation that started in major college sports in the late 80's and early 90's is all but complete. 

It takes a special situation for one of the schools in a lower-level league to compete at the most elite level, and Memphis during the Calipari era had that special situation. Sure, there are very good mid-major programs who win and compete at a high level - Butler, Xavier, and Gonzaga come to mind, as well as historical situations like Temple under John Chaney or UMass under Calipari. But the only other situation that was on the same plane in the expanded tournament era (post-1985) is UNLV in the early 90's. They consistently won, grabbed a championship, made final fours, had a top-level coach and loads of talented recruits. Then Jerry Tarkanian left, and UNLV has since drifted into the middle tier of the Mountain West. Will that be the pattern Memphis follows too?

If Memphis is to continue to be a basketball power at the highest level, and avoid a similar decline as the one UNLV went through post-Tarkanian, they have 3 options.

1) Hope that a school gets booted from one of the major conferences, thus creating a void the Tigers would naturally fill (not likely);

2) Hope Notre Dame has a change of heart and decides to accept Big Ten membership as the leagues 12th team, or that another team like Pitt or West Virginia who have a natural geographic fit in the Big Ten are enticed to leave the Big East for midwestern pastures, giving Memphis the opportunity to join their old C-USA and Metro Conference rivals in the Big East (again, not likely);

and 3) Claw their way into the Big Ten as the 12th team.

Memphis in the Big Ten? Sounds crazy, but the Tigers would be wise to pursue it, and would have a decent case. They bring top-level facilities (the FedEx Forum) for basketball, would bring the Big Ten's level of play up, and could follow Louisville or Cincinnati's model for football success. Geographically, Memphis isn't that far removed from tradtional "Big Ten country" - the city lies on the Mississippi river (center of the country, true to the midwestern flavor of the Big Ten), only about 160 miles south of the southernmost point of Illinois (a state in the middle of Big Ten country). By comparison, State College, PA is just about 160 miles from the Ohio border, on the far eastern reaches of the "old" Big Ten. And going further on that train of thought, Penn State's closest Big Ten neighbor is Ohio State, about 320 miles away by car. Memphis's closest neighbor would be Illinois, in Champaign, about 390 miles away. Close enough. 

In fact, Memphis would be the polar opposite of Penn State if they would come to the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions brought a lackluster basketball program with old, antiquated facilities; Memphis would bring the same in football. Penn State brought a nationally recognized, "name" football program; Memphis would bring the same in basketball. Penn State's basketball program has finally become competitive, just as Memphis's football program eventually would after years of struggle to gain traction. It's not as far-fetched as you originally thought, is it? Now, we'll see if that scenario actually plays out or if it's just a wild brainstorm from someone who thinks about these sorts of things.

And on to the Final Four

Semifinal 1: Michigan State vs. Connecticut

This game will be a war. Two of the most prolific rebounding teams in the country will beat the living pulp out of each other in the paint. It'll be the opposite of the second semifinal, which will likely be a flowing, transition, uptempo affair, while this game will be gritty, bloody, and perhaps ugly. So it will be a war, but I don't think it's a war Michigan State can win, "home court" and all. UConn has more weapons, more momentum, and the tallest man on the court, something that can go a long way in a rebounding battle. The Spartans have to get Thabeet into foul trouble, then they can play a reduced-possession, offensive rebound driven game, their best chance to win. But even then it would be tough. UConn can win that type of game, even without Thabeet. It's just a tough, strength-on-strength matchup for the Spartans that I think will turn Connecticut's way by the second half. Michigan State would probably have a better chance against either of the other 2 final 4 entrants.

Connecticut 68, Michigan State 57

Semifinal 2: North Carolina vs. Villanova

Don't pencil North Carolina in just yet. In 3 of the last 4 years, Villanova has been eliminated from the tournament by the eventual champion, and those tough losses to tough teams have built a tremendous amount of character and resolve around this team and around Jay Wright. One of those losses happened to be to North Carolina, in the 2005 tournament. That loss still stings the program, as the Wildcats felt they should have won that game (if I remember correctly it was decided on a questionable call near the end). Most of the faces may have changed, but Jay Wright remembers, and that North Carolina uniform, as well as the Tar Heels #1 seed and favorite status, remain. And so the biggest game Jay Wright will have ever coached has an extra level of juice for him. Also, Villanova is peaking at the right time behind tremendous, deep guard play and an unsung frontcourt that should compete well with North Carolina's. This will be a strength-on-strength game as well, and as risky as it is to show up and try to run with Ty Lawson and the Tar Heels, I think Villanova can do it. And don't forget that in spite of a national championship in the closet, Roy Williams has always been known as a coach who doesn't get the job done in the big ones. That was his reputation at Kansas, and it's largely been swept under the carpet at UNC because of their 2005 title. But one game doesn't change a coach completely. Just look at the egg the Tar Heels laid in last year's national semifinal against Kansas.

Villanova 86, North Carolina 83

National Championship

In the year of the Big East, an all-Big East final would only be appropriate. I'm afraid the underdog magic of Villanova would stop at the hands of a foe who is familiar and balanced. There wouldn't be any sneaking up on UConn, and the Huskies have the game to match the strength of anyone else's. Since the tournament has tipped off, UConn has been the strongest overall team, and it would be an upset if anyone upended them.

Connecticut 77, Villanova 70

Next week: some more review, and on to the 5 month wait for football!

mmm...Chalky

If you look at the sidebar and "About Me" section at the bottom, the shape of this blog has changed. I've decided to expand my horizons and tackle college basketball as well as football. What started the last 2 weeks as bracketology and some ruminations about the tournament, moved to an innocent comment at the end of last week's post that I might stick with roundball for another week, and now has blossomed into a full-blown thematic shift. Someone call the Drudge Report! When I decided to start this blog at the beginning of last August I was strongly influenced by football fever, forgetting how much I enjoy college basketball, and in particular the 3 week maelstrom of hoops and hoopla that is the NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament. So it's only fitting for me that I open the door to more in-depth basketball coverage.

The NCAA tournament, perhaps more than any other major sporting event, is known for upsets and Cinderella stories. And yet here we stand, with 14 of the top 16 seeds still alive and well. Only 5 seed Purdue (hardly a surprise) and 12 seed Arizona (old guard power) have cracked the upset code. This is the most predictable tournament ever! Sure, the games have been entertaining and we've had some late game drama and near-buzzer beaters, but the event loses something without the George Masons and Davidsons of the world. All weekend long I kept waiting for the flurry of bracket-shredding upsets, but most people still have an uncrumpled, clean sheet sitting next to their desk. And this all came after I touted last week that upsets are unavoidable, that those who predict an all-favorites bracket a la President Obama are boring and deluded, and that we'd have some odd seeding combinations come Sunday night. Oops. I will defend myself by saying that in any other year, everything I said last week was right. Welcome to 2009, the Anomaly.

What we do have is a magnificent looking Sweet Sixteen, every matchup looking competitive. Those who purchased expensive regional ticket packs a year ago when they went on sale will be rewarded with some great basketball. This potentially could be the best Sweet Sixteen ever, but as evidenced by last weekend, prediction usually defies reality. We'll see.

Before I do some quick picks for this weekend's action, let's look at how my bracket rules fared during an unpredictably predictable opening weekend. Hint: not as bad as you might assume.

1. Always Pick a 12-seed to beat a 5-seed

Verdict: Upheld. 3 of 'em won games this year.

2. Always pick an 11-seed to beat a 6-seed

Verdict: Upheld. Thanks, Dayton (but no thanks, you took out my sleeper Elite 8 team!)

3. Pick at least 6 first round upsets

Verdict: Upheld. This year there were 10, most minor and in seed number only. Hence the lack of excitement and intrigue.

4. Don't take any team seeded 14 or higher unless you're REALLY confident in them, and I mean REALLY confident

Verdict: Upheld, in spite of my futile attempts to break it (boy, I really must have talked myself into North Dakota State)

5. 13 is the new 12

Verdict: Upheld. I think this one's here to stay.

6. (Second Round) Always pick a double-digit seed to advance

Verdict: Upheld, even in this year of non-surprise.

7. (Second Round) Always pick at least one 2 seed to lose

Verdict. Broken. But trust me, it's abnormal.

8. Pick at least 5 teams seeded 5 or above to reach the Sweet Sixteen

Verdict: Broken. Sorry if you followed my lead. I take no responsibility for monies lost (you shouldn't gamble anyway, it's like throwing money in a river).

So my rules went 6 for 8. Much better than my actual bracket. Here's a second try, taking you from Sweet Sixteen to Final Four in what is probably the hardest to predict second weekend ever.

1. EAST REGION

Pittsburgh over Xavier

Pitt looked downright ugly in the first half against ETSU, and didn't really shown much in either game. But they're one of the only teams that has 3 or 4 players who can carry them, something that should give them staying power. And since I didn't start paying close attention to college basketball until mid-February, I can't name one player on Xavier's roster. Pitt finally clears the Sweet Sixteen hurdle.

Villanova over Duke

Duke has to slow the game down to win, they won't be able to keep up with Villanova's shooters and guard play. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils they'll be easily drawn in to an up-and-down, three point contest style of game. Expect a high scoring shootout, with 'Nova taking care of things late.

Final: Villanova over Pittsburgh

Betraying my initial Final Four pick, I'm going against the Panthers. Villanova's beaten Pitt once already, and they looked more like Final Four material through the first 2 rounds (at least after waking up against American). Villanova has the guards and quickness to apply the full-court pressure that easily befuddles Pitt, and I think they'll use it and more hot shooting to advance.

2. SOUTH REGION

North Carolina over Gonzaga

I'm not buying the trendy upset talk. North Carolina is light years ahead of Gonzaga in talent, and the Zags ugly performances against top-level teams earlier this season, particularly against Memphis, still stand out too much in my head.

Oklahoma over Syracuse

Two words: Blake Griffin. Even against the triple teams that will collapse to him against the 2-3 zone, he'll have his way. Syracuse isn't deep and they'll lose bodies quickly as they play hack-a-Blake.

Final: Oklahoma over North Carolina

The Tar Heels are more talented and will rightly be the favorite, but shoddy defense will do them in against the Sooners. Griffin vs. Hansbrough would be fun, and Hansbrough would quickly find that his hands are full.

3. MIDWEST REGION

Louisville over Arizona

Closer than you might think. I thought about pulling the trigger on an upset, as Arizona has the talent to keep up with Louisville. And the Cards have looked anything but invincible. But they are the overall #1, and 12 seeds, no matter who they are, typically hit the wall at this point in the tournament.

Michigan State over Kansas

This is probably the least appealing matchup of the Sweet Sixteen to me. It's with no real confidence that I take the Spartans. They do have more experience, so we'll go with that as the reason.

Final: Louisville over Michigan State

I'm a Big Ten guy, being a Penn State fan and all, but I can't see a team from the plodding, pre-shot clock era Big Ten staying with Louisville. This could be a rout.

4. WEST REGION

Purdue over Connecticut

UConn has looked as good as anyone through 2 games, but I'm sticking to my guns and going with Purdue as my sleeper Final Four team. The pre-shot clock era comment that applies to the rest of the Big Ten doesn't to Purdue - they have the horses to run and are as talented as just about anyone.

Missouri over Memphis

The best looking matchup of this round, and what could be a game with 100 possessions per team (and 25 turnovers apiece too). The fast pace will play to Missouri, as their defense will actually help their offense. They won't be able to score against Memphis in the half court, so look for them to pressure and run, then pressure and run again.

Final: Purdue over Missouri

Only because I picked it from the start. Could be another fantastic game.

Next week: a look at the Final Four, whoever they may be, and an analysis of my later-round bracket rules.

The Perfect Bracket

Do you know how impossible it is to predict every single game correct in an NCAA tournament bracket? I'm not pretending to be a mathematician, but I believe if you were to go take each of the 63 games as a pure 50/50 chance, you'd be looking at something along the lines of 1/2 to the 63rd power, a 50/50 chance iterated 63 times over. To show the ridiculousness of that impossibility, here's that number: 0.000000000000000000108. If my math (or rather my calculator and my spotty remembrance of the rules of decimals) is correct, that's just over a 1 in one quintillion chance. Yet this is my dream. I figure if I'm around for 75 NCAA tournaments, that gives me a 75 in one quintillion chance. Now that doesn't sound so daunting.

Thankfully I have much greater things that I live for, and my hope doesn't rest in a chance somewhere along the same lines as finding a 4-leaf clover orbiting neatly around Jupiter. But I do entertain the fantasy of one day attaining this Jupiterian clover, this white whale. We'll call it a recreational dream - don't matter a lick if it never happens, but man would it be sweet if it did.

In my quest for this one shining moment I've gathered a basic set of rules for filling out an NCAA tournament bracket, based on observations made through the years. Some of these are the same ones you always hear (like always pick a 12 seed to beat a 5), and for good reason - they're correct. And some are more under the radar. But I believe that by observing some general trends played across several tournaments, coupled with the fact that some games are most decidedly not a 50/50 proposition, you can increase your chances greatly, somewhere along the lines of 1 in a trillion. Now we're getting somewhere!

I should note one thing before I give you the list. If you've played Hearts before, you're familiar with the concept of shooting the moon. Picking the perfect bracket is like shooting the moon - just trying to do it will probably end in disaster. So if you're looking simply to win an office pool, you're probably looking in the wrong place. Invariably what happens is you go by these rules, but pick the wrong upsets, so while your 12 seed is losing by 15, some other 12 seed is knocking out your sleeper 5 seed who you picked to the final 4. But at least you've tried, and you've barked up the right tree. If you want to win an office pool, go with the cowardly "all-favorites" bracket (much like President Obama demonstrated on SportsCenter) - you'll get thrown off by a few upsets (who doesn't), but usually the cream does rise to the top and you'll probably be looking pretty good come final 4 weekend. But where's the fun (and right to brag, for that matter) in that. Anyone can pick all one seeds to the final 4. That's the easy way out. I say go for it all, the elusive perfect bracket.

So without further adieu, here are my 12 bracket guidelines that I try to live by each March (15 would have been nice and consistent, theme-wise, but I'd just be making some of them up). I say guidelines because sometimes you just have to go with your gut and bend the rules. But if you stick by these, you'll be in pretty good shape.

First Round Guidelines

1. Always pick a 12 seed to beat a 5 seed.

This is about the worst-kept secret since the parental identity of Luke Skywalker. Every year everyone tells you that at least one 12 seed will beat a 5 seed, and indeed it does happen just about every year. I think only twice has it failed. But why? The reason, I think, lies in the fact that the 12 seed line is the usual cutoff point between the last at-large teams and the very good, but very underrated, mid-major conference winners. These teams are seeded down this far simply because of the conference they play in. Their opponents are weaker, their strength of schedule goes down, their RPI drops, and they fall to a 12 seed, when in actuality their talent level is on par with an 8 or 9 seed. And so they play the supposed giant-killers each year.

My pick this year: Western Kentucky over Illinois. The Hilltoppers did it last year, why not again? And Illinois goes through incredibly long scoring droughts, enough to kill them in an NCAA tournament game.

2. Always pick an 11 seed to beat a 6 seed.

12's beat 5's more often, but there is almost always an 11 seed that takes down a 6 too. Just don't go crazy and pick more than 2 of these - 6 seeds can be among the most frisky in the tournament, and are attractive sleeper picks for the elite 8 (more on that later).

My pick this year: Utah State over Marquette. Marquette is dead in the water after the injury to Dominic James, and Utah State is one of only 2 thirty game winners entering the tourney. They're the perfect example of what I described above, only the got an 11 instead of a 12.

3. Pick at least 6 first round upsets.

I read yesterday that the average number of higher seeded teams beating lower seeded ones in the first round is 7. I usually land somewhere between 7 and 9. I should note that the term upset is used loosely - 9's beating 8's and 10's beating 7's are hardly upsets, but they are higher seeds winning. 

My number this year: 8

4. Don't take any team seeded 14 or higher unless you're REALLY confident in them, and I mean REALLY confident.

16 seeds have never won, 15 seeds win once in a blue moon, and 14 seeds every 5 years or so. But there's a reason the teams seeded 1, 2, and 3 are where they are - they're usually pretty good.

My pick this year: North Dakota State over Kansas. Yes, I'm REALLY confident in NDSU. Kansas lost in the last 2 weeks to Baylor, who would have been a 12 or 13 seed if they'd made it, and Texas Tech, who'd be lucky to get a 14. That's vulnerability, folks, and NDSU is one of the most underrated teams out there. They have a dude who dropped 60 on another NCAA tournament qualifier earlier this year, and they've played giant killers before, though not on this level. Watch out for the Bison!

5. 13 is the new 12.

This is a new one for me, but I've begun to consider taking a 13 seed just about every year. Parity is becoming more a part of college basketball by the year, and with it means very talented and well-coached 13 seeds. With the gap closing, I wouldn't be surprised if 13's started knocking off 4's on a yearly basis.

My pick this year: Cleveland State over Wake Forest. Wake is aggravatingly inconsistent, and Cleveland State is seeded lower than it ought to be. They're basically on par with Butler, who's seeded 9th. They were 1-2 against the Bulldogs, but all 3 games were down to the wire, dead even showings. And Cleveland State beat Syracuse in Syracuse (remember the 70 foot buzzer beater in December?).

Second Round Guidelines

6. Always pick a double-digit seed to advance.

It happens nearly every year, with frightening regularity - a team seeded 10 or higher slips into the sweet 16, leaving the nation crying "shocker" and "Cinderella". But it happens every single year! Be ready. Find that hidden gem, and make the pick. Trust me. It's a very satisfying moment to see the 10 seed you targeted become the national darling for the week.

My pick this year: Cleveland State. See above - the Vikings are this year's Cinderella story.

7. Always pick at least one 2-seed to lose.

While 1 seeds are near locks at this level, 2 seeds are typically vulnerable, and almost every year one or two, sometimes more, go down. Locate that hot 7 or 10 seed and go with it.

My picks this year: California over Memphis, Texas over Duke. I make it a personal rule to pick Duke to lose way before they ought to, and Texas is way too talented to be a 7 seed - talk about underachieving this season! And Memphis hasn't played a major conference team in about 3 months. They've feasted on the dregs that make up the rest of Conference USA, and the step up in competition could catch them off guard. It should be noted that they did play Gonzaga and won convincingly, but they're still not a major conference foe.

8. Pick at least 5 teams seeded 5 or above to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

I keep track of these things (mentally, at least - I have no hard data to back this up), and have noted that at least 5 teams that "shouldn't" reach the Sweet Sixteen - that is, they aren't one of the top 4 seeds in their region - do make it. So don't just drop the top 4 seeds in place, you'll lose.

My picks this year: the aforementioned Cleveland State, Texas and California; West Virginia, Purdue, Arizona State

Later Round Guidelines

9. Pick at least one team seeded 6 or higher to make the elite 8.

Cinderella teams are what make the tourney fun, and usually one threatens, and sometimes even makes, the final 4. Davidson was a 10 seed last year, Gonzaga's done it from that spot a few times, George Mason was an 11 seed when they went to the final 4, and on and on.

My pick this year: West Virginia. They're gelling at the right time and have a favorable bracket. 

10. Add up the total of the seed numbers of your Final 4 teams, and make sure it's between 5 and 10.

Everyone knows that all four 1 seeds never made the Final 4 before last year's anomaly, but there typically aren't many really high seeds either. In fact, it's probably unwise to consider teams seeded 6 or above - it just doesn't happen that often. Usually the Final 4 looks something like this: two 1 seeds, a 2 seed, and a 3 or 4 seed. Total number in that case: 7 or 8. Perfect.

My picks this year: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, and Purdue (total number: 9; two 1's, a 2, and a 5)

11. Pick a 1 or 2 seed to win it all.

It's ok to take a 5 seed like Purdue to the Final 4, but don't get cute with them once they're there, they'll probably lose in the semifinal. Except in some rare instances, the whole tournament is won by the 1's and 2's of the world. So pick your favorite of the bunch and go with them.

My pick this year: Louisville. Crazily, the Cardinals are the only 1 or 2 seed (other than Memphis, who by playing in Conference USA doesn't count) who won their last game. All the others were bounced from their conference tournament early. When in doubt, pick the hot team.

12. Expect your bracket to be in shambles by 10pm Friday.

No matter how well you prepare, it always seems to happen. Have fun with it while you can, then give in to rooting for all upsets and general mayhem, then begin to dream again next year.

And finally, here's the full rundown of my picks. Enjoy the madness!

MIDWEST

Second Round

Louisville over Siena

Cleveland State over Utah

West Virginia over NDSU

Michigan State over USC

Sweet Sixteen

Louisville over Cleveland State

West Virginia over Michigan State

Final: Louisville over WVU

WEST

Second Round

UConn over BYU

Purdue over Washington

Missouri over Utah State

California over Memphis

Sweet Sixteen

Purdue over UConn

Missouri over California

Final: Purdue over Missouri

EAST

Second Round

Pitt over Tennessee

Xavier over Florida State

Villanova over UCLA

Texas over Duke

Sweet Sixteen

Pitt over Xavier

Villanova over Texas

Final: Pitt over Villanova

SOUTH

Second Round

North Carolina over LSU

Gonzaga over Western Kentucky

Arizona State over Syracuse

Oklahoma over Michigan

Sweet Sixteen

North Carolina over Gonzaga

Oklahoma over Arizona State

Final: Oklahoma over North Carolina

FINAL FOUR

Semifinals

Louisville over Purdue

Oklahoma over Pitt

Final: Louisville over Oklahoma

Next week: I said we'd return to football for next week, but this is so much fun we might stick with basketball. Stay tuned...

Bracketology, Freshman Fifteen Edition

You know already that college football, not basketball, is what this space is for, and that my favorite sport is the gridiron variety of university athletics. But college basketball is a close second, and I've always been a dabbler in bracketology. What follows is my best guess of how the brackets will line up come 6 o'clock this evening.

A few notes before we get to the field of 65...

1) This is being posted before the Ohio State-Purdue game ends, and I've assumed that Purdue, as the favorite, will win. If that's wrong (which, judging by the rest of the week, is pretty likely), Ohio State will swap with Butler, the Buckeyes to a 7 seed and the Bulldogs to an 8. And Purdue will fall from a 4 to a 5, giving Arizona State the open 4 seed. Of course, that would require some re-arrangement of who plays whom and in what bracket, but we don't have time for that.

2) The last 4 teams into the field are: Texas A&M, Maryland, San Diego State, and Creighton (in that order). Creighton slips in by a fingernail.

3) The first 4 teams out are: Minnesota, Penn State, St. Mary's, UNLV (in that order). The Big Ten has bids stolen by Cleveland State and Mississippi State.

4) North Carolina gets the overall #1 (South Region), followed by Pitt (Midwest), UConn (East), and Louisville (West). Brackets are aligned as follows: South vs. West, Midwest vs. East.

And on to the bracket...

SOUTH REGION

1) North Carolina

16) Morehead State

8) Ohio State

9) BYU

5) Arizona State

12) Creighton

4) Syracuse

13) Stephen F. Austin

3) Villanova

14) American

6) Clemson

11) USC

7) Butler

10) Michigan

2) Oklahoma

15) Robert Morris

WEST REGION

1) Louisville

16) East Tennessee State

8) Oklahoma State

9) Utah State

5) Utah

12) Western Kentucky

4) Wake Forest

13) Mississippi State

3) Washington

14) Akron

6) Illinois

11) Texas A&M

7) Marquette

10) Boston College

2) Memphis

15) Morgan State

MIDWEST REGION

1) Pittsburgh

16) Chattanooga/Alabama State (opening round game)

8) California

9) Temple

5) Gonzaga

12) VCU

4) Florida State

13) Northern Iowa

3) Missouri

14) North Dakota State

6) West Virginia

11) Maryland

7) LSU

10) Dayton

2) Michigan State

15) Cornell

EAST REGION

1) Connecticut

16) Cal St. Northridge

8) Texas

9) Siena

5) UCLA

12) Cleveland State

4) Purdue

13) Portland State

3) Kansas

14) Binghamton

6) Xavier

11) San Diego State

7) Tennessee

10) Wisconsin

2) Duke

15) Radford

Coming by Thursday - my picks on the actual bracket.

15 Games I'd Like To See

I got to thinking during this past season of some potential cool matchups, and decided that I'd devote an off-season blog post to the topic. Some of these matchups would be huge hype-generators, the types of games sportswriters salivate over when the buzz of the new season starts in late June. Others are mere whimsical (or comical) affairs that would pique curiosity. Still others are just games I think should be played for one reason or another. With only 4 non-conference games each season, compelling intersectional matchups are hard to find, and I for one would love to see AD's schedule more creatively and competitively. Here are some suggestions they can use to get started.

1. Penn State vs. Pitt

Did you expect anything else from me for my number one spot? This is a series that should never have ended after the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten - it was one of college football's great rivalries, fierce, competitive, and intriguing - and sadly it won't restart again until Joe Paterno is out of office. Which may not be anytime soon. Fans are still whipped into a frenzy over their old rivals success or failure, and recruiting skirmishes between the 2 schools still dot the Western PA landscape. The truth of the matter is, Penn State has moved on to what it looks at as bigger and better things in the Big Ten, and views their rival to the west as the stepchild of Pennsylvania football. Pitt hasn't done much lately on the field to dispel that sentiment. But Pitt's ire over the Nittany Lions still burns - you can still find anti-PSU t-shirts hung up for sale around Pitt's campus. And you can bet those fires would be stoked again quickly amongst Nittany Lion faithful, especially now that Pitt threatens to emerge as a national player once again. The state legislature has nearly intervened to force the game to happen, and many wish they'd gone all the way and passed it into law. My suggestion - rekindle the traditional Thanksgiving weekend date for these two, guaranteeing that this game would be played in cold, snowy, muddly, classic Pennsylvania football conditions. The Big Ten ends early enough that Penn State would have that date open nearly every year, and the Big East does some funky and creative scheduling, so opening that weekend for Pitt would be easy. Dear Harrisburg: push the bill through!

2. Florida vs. Texas

3 of the last 4 national champions. Storied traditional powers. What should have been last year's title game. Colt McCoy vs. Tim Tebow. Florida speed vs. Texas muscle. The plotlines are endless. And we just might see it next January.

3. Ohio State vs. Alabama

A similar amount of plotlines, dripping with drama here too. Clean cut Tressel vs. Smarmy, Distrustful Saban. Classic old time powers who are back on top. Brute strength vs. Brute strength. Shadows of the Bear and Woody. Think of the intrigue this one would carry if it appeared on the early September calendar.

4. Boise State vs. Utah

The BCS headhunters square off in a showdown to see who is the real mid-major head honcho.

5. North Carolina vs. Kansas

Here's a guaranteed revenue generator for ESPN: in early November, when the college basketball season starts, bring these two schools together for a made-for-TV football/basketball doubleheader. Bring a bevy of ESPN talent to Lawrence or Chapel Hill for a full-court press of coverage. Play the football game on ESPN at noon, then give everyone a change to recharge for a few hours before a 7pm nightcap of two of the most storied college basketball programs around. With Butch Davis pushing the Tar Heel football program forward, joining the work Mark Mangino has done in making Kansas an top-25 program, this scenario could net games matching top-25 teams in both sports, in the same place, on the same day. It's a tailgaters dream. Then turn around and do it again next year at the home of the other team. Can't miss.

6. Duke vs. Stanford

Same as above, only with a quiz bowl stuck in the middle.

7. Penn State vs. South Carolina

True story: when I was a kid I used to simulate football games in my backyard, by myself - playing ballcarrier, tackler, QB, receiver, TV announcer, all at the same time. Very strange, I know. But for some reason, one game I'd routinely play was Penn State and South Carolina. And in my fantasy of this game it was always played in a driving rainstorm. On one fateful day my grandmother was in town taking care of my brother and I, and I managed to convince her to let me go outside in one of those all-day, soaking rains (one of those things you can get away with with grandma's, while you'd never slip it past mom); and for 2 hours I played a full simulation. It was glorious. Penn State won 24-20. I probably got sick the next day, but I'd lived the dream. And that's why Penn State vs. South Carolina make this list. Spurrier vs. Paterno ain't a bad coaching collision either.

8. South Carolina vs. Florida State

Speaking of coaching collisions, Bowden vs. Spurrier renewed would draw a few eyes.

9. Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Another titanic major program showdown that would rack up the pregame headlines.

10. Nebraska vs. Georgia Tech

This would be fun just for the confused and longing looks on the faces of Cornhusker fans as Paul Johnson's old-school triple option attack ran all over Memorial Stadium. Would Big Red backers mistakenly start cheering for the Yellow Jackets as they wax eloquently to one another about the glory days of Rogers, Frazier, and Coach Osborne?

11. Florida vs. the Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have been the most pathetic team in the NFL over the past several years, and I'm sure Tim Tebow would love a crack at taking down a pro team. He's conquered just about everything else a college player can conquer during a 4 year career. And the Gators are absolutely loaded with NFL talent all across the roster. You have to admit, you'd at least be a little interested in how this one would play out.

12. USC vs. LSU

The last of the matchups of the major powers of the day, and a fight over which is the top abbreviated name school.

13. Tennessee vs. Texas A&M

Two once-proud programs with loyal, zealous fan bases go at it in a battle to move past mediocrity and into relevancy again.

14. West Virginia vs. Michigan

You knew this one would make the list somewhere. Imagine the environment in Morgantown if the Wolverines came to town. Furniture stores would pack up and leave the week before in preparation for the coming storm.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the College All-Stars

Way back in football yesteryear, the Super Bowl champion would annually play a team of college all-stars in a gimmicky exhibition. That was, until the Steelers of the 70's closed the tradition down by stomping on the poor kids (actually, the rising value of the NFL player and concern for safety probably did more to end it). Wouldn't it be fitting if the Steelers, the current NFL champion, re-opened this dusty old door? And wouldn't it be a much better barometer of NFL readiness and a much better draft evaluation metric than the current crop of senior bowls and college all-star games, which no one but Mel Kiper wannabes and football-starved couch potatoes watch?

Next week: I delve into the world of college basketball for 2 weeks with my best shot at bracketology, expect it up on Selection Sunday.