The NCAA tournament, perhaps more than any other major sporting event, is known for upsets and Cinderella stories. And yet here we stand, with 14 of the top 16 seeds still alive and well. Only 5 seed Purdue (hardly a surprise) and 12 seed Arizona (old guard power) have cracked the upset code. This is the most predictable tournament ever! Sure, the games have been entertaining and we've had some late game drama and near-buzzer beaters, but the event loses something without the George Masons and Davidsons of the world. All weekend long I kept waiting for the flurry of bracket-shredding upsets, but most people still have an uncrumpled, clean sheet sitting next to their desk. And this all came after I touted last week that upsets are unavoidable, that those who predict an all-favorites bracket a la President Obama are boring and deluded, and that we'd have some odd seeding combinations come Sunday night. Oops. I will defend myself by saying that in any other year, everything I said last week was right. Welcome to 2009, the Anomaly.
What we do have is a magnificent looking Sweet Sixteen, every matchup looking competitive. Those who purchased expensive regional ticket packs a year ago when they went on sale will be rewarded with some great basketball. This potentially could be the best Sweet Sixteen ever, but as evidenced by last weekend, prediction usually defies reality. We'll see.
Before I do some quick picks for this weekend's action, let's look at how my bracket rules fared during an unpredictably predictable opening weekend. Hint: not as bad as you might assume.
1. Always Pick a 12-seed to beat a 5-seed
Verdict: Upheld. 3 of 'em won games this year.
2. Always pick an 11-seed to beat a 6-seed
Verdict: Upheld. Thanks, Dayton (but no thanks, you took out my sleeper Elite 8 team!)
3. Pick at least 6 first round upsets
Verdict: Upheld. This year there were 10, most minor and in seed number only. Hence the lack of excitement and intrigue.
4. Don't take any team seeded 14 or higher unless you're REALLY confident in them, and I mean REALLY confident
Verdict: Upheld, in spite of my futile attempts to break it (boy, I really must have talked myself into North Dakota State)
5. 13 is the new 12
Verdict: Upheld. I think this one's here to stay.
6. (Second Round) Always pick a double-digit seed to advance
Verdict: Upheld, even in this year of non-surprise.
7. (Second Round) Always pick at least one 2 seed to lose
Verdict. Broken. But trust me, it's abnormal.
8. Pick at least 5 teams seeded 5 or above to reach the Sweet Sixteen
Verdict: Broken. Sorry if you followed my lead. I take no responsibility for monies lost (you shouldn't gamble anyway, it's like throwing money in a river).
So my rules went 6 for 8. Much better than my actual bracket. Here's a second try, taking you from Sweet Sixteen to Final Four in what is probably the hardest to predict second weekend ever.
1. EAST REGION
Pittsburgh over Xavier
Pitt looked downright ugly in the first half against ETSU, and didn't really shown much in either game. But they're one of the only teams that has 3 or 4 players who can carry them, something that should give them staying power. And since I didn't start paying close attention to college basketball until mid-February, I can't name one player on Xavier's roster. Pitt finally clears the Sweet Sixteen hurdle.
Villanova over Duke
Duke has to slow the game down to win, they won't be able to keep up with Villanova's shooters and guard play. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils they'll be easily drawn in to an up-and-down, three point contest style of game. Expect a high scoring shootout, with 'Nova taking care of things late.
Final: Villanova over Pittsburgh
Betraying my initial Final Four pick, I'm going against the Panthers. Villanova's beaten Pitt once already, and they looked more like Final Four material through the first 2 rounds (at least after waking up against American). Villanova has the guards and quickness to apply the full-court pressure that easily befuddles Pitt, and I think they'll use it and more hot shooting to advance.
2. SOUTH REGION
North Carolina over Gonzaga
I'm not buying the trendy upset talk. North Carolina is light years ahead of Gonzaga in talent, and the Zags ugly performances against top-level teams earlier this season, particularly against Memphis, still stand out too much in my head.
Oklahoma over Syracuse
Two words: Blake Griffin. Even against the triple teams that will collapse to him against the 2-3 zone, he'll have his way. Syracuse isn't deep and they'll lose bodies quickly as they play hack-a-Blake.
Final: Oklahoma over North Carolina
The Tar Heels are more talented and will rightly be the favorite, but shoddy defense will do them in against the Sooners. Griffin vs. Hansbrough would be fun, and Hansbrough would quickly find that his hands are full.
3. MIDWEST REGION
Louisville over Arizona
Closer than you might think. I thought about pulling the trigger on an upset, as Arizona has the talent to keep up with Louisville. And the Cards have looked anything but invincible. But they are the overall #1, and 12 seeds, no matter who they are, typically hit the wall at this point in the tournament.
Michigan State over Kansas
This is probably the least appealing matchup of the Sweet Sixteen to me. It's with no real confidence that I take the Spartans. They do have more experience, so we'll go with that as the reason.
Final: Louisville over Michigan State
I'm a Big Ten guy, being a Penn State fan and all, but I can't see a team from the plodding, pre-shot clock era Big Ten staying with Louisville. This could be a rout.
4. WEST REGION
Purdue over Connecticut
UConn has looked as good as anyone through 2 games, but I'm sticking to my guns and going with Purdue as my sleeper Final Four team. The pre-shot clock era comment that applies to the rest of the Big Ten doesn't to Purdue - they have the horses to run and are as talented as just about anyone.
Missouri over Memphis
The best looking matchup of this round, and what could be a game with 100 possessions per team (and 25 turnovers apiece too). The fast pace will play to Missouri, as their defense will actually help their offense. They won't be able to score against Memphis in the half court, so look for them to pressure and run, then pressure and run again.
Final: Purdue over Missouri
Only because I picked it from the start. Could be another fantastic game.
Next week: a look at the Final Four, whoever they may be, and an analysis of my later-round bracket rules.
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