And so we arrive at the end again, this time in Motown. Who will have the last shining moment? I'll give my take in a few minutes, but first I have a few loose ends to tie up and commentary to make.
The Imperfect Bracket
I told you a few weeks go of my dream of a perfect bracket, only to have it wind up in the ignominious result of an 0-fer on my Final Four picks. I think I've only done that once before, at least that I can remember. Two is usually my norm. But this year I fell flat. Even with a second try at it last week. I did go 7 for 8 in the sweet sixteen though, only losing on Purdue. But I only stuck with them out of sheer stubbornness.
Late Round Bracket Rules
I thought it would be worth visiting my late round bracket rules, to see how they held up.
9. Pick at least one team seeded 6 or higher to make the elite 8
Verdict: Broken. Arizona was the only possibility and they forgot they made the sweet 16.
10. Add up the total of the seed numbers of your final 4 teams, and make sure it's between 5 and 10
Verdict: Upheld. Total this year: 7. To quote myself: "Usually the Final 4 looks like this: two 1 seeds, a 2 seed, and a 3 or 4 seed." How prophetic.
Seven for 10 so far, not bad. Stay tuned for the final tally next week.
Comments on Calipari
Everyone is focusing on the angle of John Calipari's arrival at Kentucky and the 6 or 7 national championships that apparently are automatically theirs within the next 10 years, but the lost part of the story of Calipari's bolting to the Big Blue is what will happen at Memphis. I'm afraid we might be about to witness the end of an era: the era of teams from non-major (aka non-BCS) conferences actually competing for national championships. They've already been shut out of it in football, and the power consolidation within the elite 6 conferences continues in basketball as well. Since the Big East grabbed most of the consistently competitive Conference USA teams, we've seen fewer and fewer teams invited to the NCAA tournament from smaller leagues. This may be more an anomaly than a trend, but it's getting tougher and tougher to compete in recruiting if you're a school in a league like the Atlantic 10. There just isn't a draw - you can't sell the competition level like you can at an SEC or Big East school. And the big schools who have loads of cash to throw around gobble up quality, up-and-coming coaches from the minor leagues. And the list goes on: lucrative TV contracts, media focus, bigger arenas, better training facilities, etc, etc. More and more we're seeing a breaking apart of have's and have not's, and the power consolidation that started in major college sports in the late 80's and early 90's is all but complete.
It takes a special situation for one of the schools in a lower-level league to compete at the most elite level, and Memphis during the Calipari era had that special situation. Sure, there are very good mid-major programs who win and compete at a high level - Butler, Xavier, and Gonzaga come to mind, as well as historical situations like Temple under John Chaney or UMass under Calipari. But the only other situation that was on the same plane in the expanded tournament era (post-1985) is UNLV in the early 90's. They consistently won, grabbed a championship, made final fours, had a top-level coach and loads of talented recruits. Then Jerry Tarkanian left, and UNLV has since drifted into the middle tier of the Mountain West. Will that be the pattern Memphis follows too?
If Memphis is to continue to be a basketball power at the highest level, and avoid a similar decline as the one UNLV went through post-Tarkanian, they have 3 options.
1) Hope that a school gets booted from one of the major conferences, thus creating a void the Tigers would naturally fill (not likely);
2) Hope Notre Dame has a change of heart and decides to accept Big Ten membership as the leagues 12th team, or that another team like Pitt or West Virginia who have a natural geographic fit in the Big Ten are enticed to leave the Big East for midwestern pastures, giving Memphis the opportunity to join their old C-USA and Metro Conference rivals in the Big East (again, not likely);
and 3) Claw their way into the Big Ten as the 12th team.
Memphis in the Big Ten? Sounds crazy, but the Tigers would be wise to pursue it, and would have a decent case. They bring top-level facilities (the FedEx Forum) for basketball, would bring the Big Ten's level of play up, and could follow Louisville or Cincinnati's model for football success. Geographically, Memphis isn't that far removed from tradtional "Big Ten country" - the city lies on the Mississippi river (center of the country, true to the midwestern flavor of the Big Ten), only about 160 miles south of the southernmost point of Illinois (a state in the middle of Big Ten country). By comparison, State College, PA is just about 160 miles from the Ohio border, on the far eastern reaches of the "old" Big Ten. And going further on that train of thought, Penn State's closest Big Ten neighbor is Ohio State, about 320 miles away by car. Memphis's closest neighbor would be Illinois, in Champaign, about 390 miles away. Close enough.
In fact, Memphis would be the polar opposite of Penn State if they would come to the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions brought a lackluster basketball program with old, antiquated facilities; Memphis would bring the same in football. Penn State brought a nationally recognized, "name" football program; Memphis would bring the same in basketball. Penn State's basketball program has finally become competitive, just as Memphis's football program eventually would after years of struggle to gain traction. It's not as far-fetched as you originally thought, is it? Now, we'll see if that scenario actually plays out or if it's just a wild brainstorm from someone who thinks about these sorts of things.
And on to the Final Four
Semifinal 1: Michigan State vs. Connecticut
This game will be a war. Two of the most prolific rebounding teams in the country will beat the living pulp out of each other in the paint. It'll be the opposite of the second semifinal, which will likely be a flowing, transition, uptempo affair, while this game will be gritty, bloody, and perhaps ugly. So it will be a war, but I don't think it's a war Michigan State can win, "home court" and all. UConn has more weapons, more momentum, and the tallest man on the court, something that can go a long way in a rebounding battle. The Spartans have to get Thabeet into foul trouble, then they can play a reduced-possession, offensive rebound driven game, their best chance to win. But even then it would be tough. UConn can win that type of game, even without Thabeet. It's just a tough, strength-on-strength matchup for the Spartans that I think will turn Connecticut's way by the second half. Michigan State would probably have a better chance against either of the other 2 final 4 entrants.
Connecticut 68, Michigan State 57
Semifinal 2: North Carolina vs. Villanova
Don't pencil North Carolina in just yet. In 3 of the last 4 years, Villanova has been eliminated from the tournament by the eventual champion, and those tough losses to tough teams have built a tremendous amount of character and resolve around this team and around Jay Wright. One of those losses happened to be to North Carolina, in the 2005 tournament. That loss still stings the program, as the Wildcats felt they should have won that game (if I remember correctly it was decided on a questionable call near the end). Most of the faces may have changed, but Jay Wright remembers, and that North Carolina uniform, as well as the Tar Heels #1 seed and favorite status, remain. And so the biggest game Jay Wright will have ever coached has an extra level of juice for him. Also, Villanova is peaking at the right time behind tremendous, deep guard play and an unsung frontcourt that should compete well with North Carolina's. This will be a strength-on-strength game as well, and as risky as it is to show up and try to run with Ty Lawson and the Tar Heels, I think Villanova can do it. And don't forget that in spite of a national championship in the closet, Roy Williams has always been known as a coach who doesn't get the job done in the big ones. That was his reputation at Kansas, and it's largely been swept under the carpet at UNC because of their 2005 title. But one game doesn't change a coach completely. Just look at the egg the Tar Heels laid in last year's national semifinal against Kansas.
Villanova 86, North Carolina 83
National Championship
In the year of the Big East, an all-Big East final would only be appropriate. I'm afraid the underdog magic of Villanova would stop at the hands of a foe who is familiar and balanced. There wouldn't be any sneaking up on UConn, and the Huskies have the game to match the strength of anyone else's. Since the tournament has tipped off, UConn has been the strongest overall team, and it would be an upset if anyone upended them.
Connecticut 77, Villanova 70
Next week: some more review, and on to the 5 month wait for football!
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