Preseason Preview Part 2

I'm currently watching a "Big Ten's Classic Games" broadcast of Penn State vs. Iowa from 2002. I must be a glutton for punishment - I was at this game and remember very vividly the ugly feeling that rises in your gut when your team fails to convert a 4th down in OT, suddenly and stunningly ending the game. So abrupt and disheartening. We Penn Staters have not had many good memories against Iowa.

The game, of course, is on the Big Ten Network, a channel I'm thankful to get, but at the same time feel a little uncomfortable with the fact that an amateur athletics league has their very own television network. Isn't that just a bit ridiculous? Such is the age we live in - an age when there are about 20 different HBO channels, at least 4 MTV networks, and by my count, 6 kids channels. Why do children need 6 separate channels to choose from? Or maybe a better question would be, why give parents 6 kinds of temptations to take the easy road and pass of the parenting of their child to TV? And to come full circle, why give ourselves numerous college-sports only channels that tempt us to zone out into a world of 24/7 Big Ten sports? Ah, the challenges of living a purposeful life.

Anyway, speaking of conferences - this week we look at my conference predictions, plus the impossible task of bowl matchups, and the even more impossible task of pinpointing the exact order of the final top 25 poll. But away we go!

Conferences

I'll do this in the order of my perceived conference strength, and point out my conference winner, a sleeper contender to look out for, and each conference's biggest disappointment.

1. Big 12

The Big 12 South could be just as good as last year, when Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech all finished with just one loss all season, and all flirted with the number one ranking and a national championship shot. Replace Texas Tech with Oklahoma State, and you get the scene this year. Texas Tech will take a step back after losing Crabtree & Harrell (no, not the attorneys-at-law, the lethal QB-WR combo). But Baylor and Texas A&M will each push forward to make bowls, meaning each of the 6 south teams will be bowl-eligible. Plus, the North division has been improving, be it ever so slowly. They're still way behind the South, but steps forward to make it competitive are at least admirable. Look for Nebraska to take the division, but Colorado could be a surprise winner too. Buffaloes coach Dan Hawkins, never shy about making a scene, said his team would win 10 games this year. Time to put your money where your mouth is, Dan! This is the Big 12! This is big time college football! And Iowa State, as usual, will be the doormat.

Winner: Oklahoma State

Sleeper: Colorado

Disappointment: Kansas

2. SEC

Yep, as announced last week, the SEC will be passed up in overall strength for the first time in nearly a decade. The conference still has some very good teams, but the multiple great teams that have been present in seasons past aren't there this year. Florida, of course, is extremely good, and shouldn't be challenged, even in the SEC. The 3 best teams in the West look about even, but I give Alabama the nod due to a defense that will be just as bruising as last year. LSU still has no proven QB, and Mississippi, everyone's darling, just doesn't quite have the overall talent. Watch out for Tennessee to make some noise in challenging Georgia for the #2 spot behind Florida in the East. The Vols have a slew of freshman talent and lots of moxie, mostly residing in their coach. Lane Kiffin will soon be hated at SEC locales more so than Nick Saban. Mark it down. This year might mark the end of the line for Steve Spurrier, as his South Carolina adventure will continue to run aground with another mediocre season.

Winner: Florida (duh)

Sleeper: Tennessee

Disappointment: Kentucky

3. Pac-10

An east coast bias does exist in college football. For proof, just look at the Pac-10 bowl affiliations: 1) BCS, 2) Holiday Bowl (on Dec. 28), 3) Sun Bowl (in lovely El Paso), 4) Emerald Bowl (Dec. 26), 5) Hawaii Bowl, 6) Pointsettia Bowl, 7) MAACO Bowl Las Vegas (the latter 3 with match ups against either Mountain West or WAC teams). For those of you scoring at home, that's no non-BCS New Year's Day bowls (the only BCS conference that's true of; the SEC has 3), 3 bowls with ties to non-BCS schools, and 3 bowls taking place before Christmas Day. And one bowl with the ridiculous name of "MAACO Bowl Las Vegas". Talk about a lack of respect. But, the Pac-10 does play some good football, and it goes beyond USC. This year, in fact, I'm predicting USC to fail to win the Pac-10 crown for the first time in eight seasons. Oregon has a brutal rushing attack and at some point Nike's money will buy them a championship. Watch out for Cal too, as the leash may be growing short for Jeff Tedford and the seasons of unmet expectations and missed opportunities add up. Oregon State is always underrated, and both Arizona and Stanford will challenge to reach the upper echelon. A lot of people expect UCLA to surge this year, but I think they're still at least one year away and have too many question marks. Their early season matchup at Tennessee might as well be called the "True Freshman Bowl". And, like last year, Washington and Washington State will be terrible. But the most disappointing award goes to Arizona State, who put on cement shoes immediately after their lofty preseason ranking, and I think this year they'll continue to sink lower. They lost their best player in QB Rudy Carpenter and have a midseason stretch in their schedule (Cal, USC, Oregon back-to-back-to-back) that will put the nail in the coffin. Dennis Erickson may be starting re-retirement early.

Winner: Oregon

Sleeper: Arizona

Disappointment: Arizona State

4. Big Ten

Yes, the Big Ten is boring. Yes, it's been on the decline for several years. Yes, it's gained a horrible reputation on the national stage. But it's still better than the ACC. And this might mark the low point for the conference, the year that starts the rebound. Michigan's success will have a lot to do with that, as the conference needs another name program to flourish alongside Penn State and Ohio State. The Wolverines should be markedly better than last year, when a home loss to MAC doormat Toledo may have been the lowest moment in the program's once-proud history. Rich Rodriguez is slowly getting his kind of talent in place, and true freshman QB Tate Forcier may be the mainstay for years to come. Michigan will be back in a bowl, but still be a year or two away from its old self. The rest of the conference is as balanced as any - Penn State has some significant holes to fill, Ohio State looks very vulnerable with the least amount of skill position talent they've had in a long time, and the next 7 in line will pound on each other in a race for third. All those teams are solid but unspectacular, and each will have their moments - coming in upsets, surprise blowouts, and spurts of impressive play. Iowa and Michigan State look to be the best of that bunch. Both will make a push for the crown but falter, and in a photo finish, Penn State will cross the line first. Barely.

Winner: Penn State

Sleeper: Michigan State

Disappointment: Purdue

5. ACC

Predicting the ACC is a bit like playing the lottery - you know you might get lucky and pick the right combination, but the odds are about a million to one. This is a conference in which every team but one (Duke) finished within 2 games of one another in the final standings. And Duke will step right into that mix this year, as they continue their improvement behind coach David Cutcliffe. My best guess? Virginia Tech won't win, in spite of being an overwhelming favorite - they always seem to fall short of expectation, and I don't see Tyrod Taylor piloting a title contender. Miami won't either - they have perhaps the most difficult starting stretch ever (@FSU, GT, @VT, Oklahoma) and they'll be derailed by mid-season, even struggling to make a bowl. Florida State won't either - too many players to replace. Neither North Carolina - Butch Davis can recruit, but has yet to prove that he can coach at a top level. That leaves Georgia Tech, N.C. State, and Clemson as the last remaining true contenders. Something tells me people will catch on to the flexbone offense more this year and Georgia Tech will fail to improve on last years surprising season. N.C. State will make some noise early with a schedule that sets up for them to start 7-0, but all the tough games backloaded into the latter half of the season will kill their momentum, and perhaps turn a potentially great season into a disappointment. And so we're left with Clemson, a team that intrigues me. Last year they were the media's darling in preseason, only to plummet and lose a coach by midseason. This year they're very much under the radar, but still a talented bunch. C.J. Spiller is one of the most talented backs in the country, Jacoby Ford is an all-conference receiver, and the defense will be strong with lots of returning starters. Everyone was a year early on the Clemson bandwagon, but there's plenty of room now!

Winner: Clemson

Sleeper: N.C. State

Disappointment: Miami (FL)

6. Mountain West

As mentioned last week, TCU gets their turn at crashing the BCS party, meaning BYU gets to once again watch as another mid-major has their place at the table. They've seen bitter rival Utah do it twice, and watched 2 WAC teams pass them by as well. The Cougars have perhaps the most storied tradition of the non-BCS schools with a relatively recent national championship trophy (1984) resting in the athletics building (TCU and SMU being the others in the running), yet they've been only a bridesmaid when it comes to making a splash in the BCS era. It's not been for lack of talent either. Max Hall is more than able to pilot BYU to the big show, and just might do so this year, but the memory their ugly 32-7 loss to TCU last year still lingers. TCU's defense terrorized Hall that game, exposing BYU as a team vulnerable to the blitz, and there's no reason to expect differently this year. Just the sight of Jerry Hughes coming off the edge might cause Hall to collapse in the pocket. Utah is another team who will challenge TCU, but I expect them to take a big step back from last year's amazing season - QB Brian Johnson was one of the coolest team leaders in the country and that leadership will be missed greatly. The Utes won some very close games last year, and at least 2 of them were won almost singlehandedly by Johnson's tremendous leadership, especially late in games (see the TCU and Oregon State games). The middle of the conference is improving, but Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, and New Mexico aren't near the level of the top 3.

Winner: TCU

Sleeper: Colorado State

Disappointment: Utah

7. Big East

Here's the problem that plagues the Big East now and will continue to plague the conference until something dramatically changes: the lack of a glamour program. Every other BCS conference has one - storied programs steeped in tradition, with a history woven right into that of college football itself. The type of program that hauls in great recruiting classes year after year because of the value of their name. The programs that rarely stay down for long, simply because they have the brand that enables them to hire a big-time coach and continue to bring in top level recruits regardless of last season's record. USC. Penn State. Texas. Alabama. Notre Dame. The Big East lacks that type of program, and it hurts the whole conference. For a mid-level Big Ten team - say, Purdue for example - recruiting is profoundly helped simply because they can tell a kid, "You'll be playing against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State every year, and get national exposure several weeks each season." If a recruit is choosing between Purdue and Louisville, who resides in roughly the same neighborhood, both geographically and in their brand power, he'll choose Purdue 8 times out of 10. Louisville just can't make the same sell. That's the biggest reason Big East schools rarely ever make it into the top 25 lists for recruiting - there's no power school who will always land there and none of the other schools can keep up with the recruiting power other conferences have. What needs to happen is for Pitt - the school that does have the most traditional power, albeit with 30 years of thick rust, or South Florida - the school with the highest ceiling, to rise to that level. But it won't be easy. Breaking into that upper crust doesn't happen very often. The last time new faces were carved into the Mt. Rushmore of college football's traditional powers was when the 3 Florida teams became consistently elite, and that was over 25 years ago. It could be a long few years for the Big East, and a flame out from BCS inclusion entirely, unless one of their members manages to do what's been nearly impossible. Oh, and by the way, South Florida edges out Pitt for the league title this year.

Winner: South Florida

Sleeper: Rutgers

Disappointment: West Virginia

8. WAC

I have the WAC in front of Conference USA for one reason only - Boise State. The Broncos have distanced themselves so far from the rest of the WAC that a conference loss of any sort would be a spectacular upset. Chris Petersen has gone 35-4 (!) in his 3 seasons at the helm, and with QB Kellen Moore back under center and a cupboard well-stocked with options, Boise State could break into the BCS again. Don't forget that they had an undefeated regular season last year, and that in a rebuilding year. This year the team is rebuilt. Their game with Oregon on the first Thursday of the season could be the only real obstacle standing in the way. So the rest of the conference is a fight for second, a boring mix of teams scattered from Louisiana to Hawaii. Louisiana Tech has the biggest potential to challenge Boise, when the Broncos come calling in November. The conference also includes 2 of the worst teams in Division 1-A in New Mexico State and Idaho.

Winner: Boise State

Sleeper: Louisiana Tech

Disappointment: Nevada

9. Conference USA

Defending champ East Carolina brings back 16 starters, but Southern Miss is my pick to win. The Golden Eagles won their last 5 and return talented players at the skill positions, including RB Damion Fletcher, a senior who's already accumulated over 4,000 yards in his career. In the West, Houston ought to pass up Tulsa with an offense that scores points in the tradition of the old run n' shoot days of Andre Ware and David Klingler.

Winner: Southern Miss

Sleeper: SMU

Disappointment: Memphis

10. MAC

Now we're reaching the point where I have almost nothing intelligent to say. I follow college football fairly closely, but splitting hairs between MAC teams just isn't my cup of tea. Once I get past the BCS conferences, I'm relying almost solely on what my Sporting News preseason magazine says, apart from a few random bits of knowledge here and there. So in nearly a complete guess, I'm picking Western Michigan to beat Buffalo for the crown. But watch out for Temple in the weaker East division - the Owls have been steadily improving under Al Golden (PSU alum), and will push for the division crown while reaching a bowl for the first time in eons.

Winner: Western Michigan

Sleeper: Temple

Disappointment: Bowling Green

11. Sun Belt

Just why is the Sun Belt a Division 1-A conference? In any given year, would more than one of its teams be good enough to qualify for the 1-AA playoffs? I have no idea, and no real reason to make fun, it's just easy to do so at the expense of the worst conference in major college football. In reality they'd probably clean up at the 1-AA ranks. My magazine says Troy is the team to beat, which makes sense, considering they pushed both LSU and Ohio State to the limit last year. But they have to play at Arkansas State, the #2 team according to the Sporting News. Based on home field advantage, Arkansas State it is!

Winner: Arkansas State

Sleeper: Florida International

Disappointment: Florida Atlantic

Bowls

Here's an educated yet wild guess at what the bowl matchups will look like come December, in chronological order with the BCS bowls last:

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State over Temple

St. Petersburg Bowl: West Virginia over Houston

New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State over Tulsa

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas (this year's winner of the Totally Ridiculous Bowl Name award): Arizona over UNLV

Pointsettia Bowl: Utah over UCLA

Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech over Northwestern

Motor City Bowl: Michigan over Central Michigan

Meinike Car Care Bowl: Rutgers over N.C. State

Emerald Bowl: North Carolina over Stanford

Music City Bowl: Miami (FL) over Auburn

Independence Bowl: Arkansas over Missouri

EagleBank Bowl: Cincinnati over Duke

Champs Sports Bowl: Georgia Tech over Illinois

Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State over BYU

Holiday Bowl: California over Nebraska

Texas Bowl: Navy over Texas A&M

Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor over SMU

Sun Bowl: Texas Tech over Oregon State

Insight Bowl: Kansas over Wisconsin

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Tennessee over Florida State

Outback Bowl: Georgia over Michigan State

Gator Bowl: Virginia Tech over Notre Dame

Capital One Bowl: LSU over Ohio State

International Bowl: Buffalo over Syracuse

Cotton Bowl: Texas over Mississippi

Papajohns.com Bowl: Pittsburgh over South Carolina

Liberty Bowl: Southern Miss over Minnesota

Alamo Bowl: Iowa over Colorado

GMAC Bowl: Western Michigan over East Carolina

Rose Bowl: Penn State over Oregon

Sugar Bowl: Alabama over TCU

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma over USC

Orange Bowl: South Florida over Clemson

BCS National Championship: Florida over Oklahoma State

The Final Poll

Before you scan this list, be sure to note the following fact: this represents how I think the season will END, not how I'd rank the teams right now. It should be very comical to revisit this list on January 9.

1) Florida

2) Oklahoma

3) Oklahoma State

4) Texas

5) Alabama

6) Penn State

7) USC

8) LSU

9) TCU

10) Boise State

11) Oregon

12) South Florida

13) Virginia Tech

14) Georgia

15) Clemson

16) Iowa

17) Tennessee

18) Mississippi

19) California

20) Ohio State

21) Southern Miss

22) Michigan State

23) Rutgers

24) Georgia Tech

25) Colorado

Next week: the wait is over! College football returns September 3, the Freshman 15 week one predictions post the night before.

2009 Season Preview: Fifteen Fearless Forecasts

Remember how anxious Christmas Eve was as a kid? The anticipation of what might be to come the next morning, the nervous excitement that you might get something totally unbelievable, the hoping and longing for something you know you'll never get, like a jetpack or a flame thrower. This is what August feels like for college football fans. Some are feeling that nervous excitement, namely fans of Florida, USC, Texas, and the like - will the season end, as expected, in a national championship game? Or, gulp, in a Hindenburg-like catastrophe - a loss to Oklahoma, getting upset by Baylor, and dropping 2 other games to inferior competition. Others are experiencing something more along the lines of hope and longing. Everyone starts undefeated, even Kent State and Temple. And Michigan, though that hasn't lasted very long in recent seasons.

But we all anticipate. So we scour preseason magazines, play out the ideal season in our heads, check ebay every 15 minutes for the latest ticket deals. Even fans of the most troubled programs, like Washington or Texas A&M, hold on to that glimmer, however faint it might be, that a miracle season is out there to be grasped. They dream of the flame thrower but will almost certainly end up with 2 packs of Fruit Of The Loom and a Tonka truck.

And as September draws nearer, we find the anxiety and eagerness growing, like what kids feel on Christmas Eve as they try to talk themselves to sleep at 1am, because they know morning will come faster if they do. And like so many kids going to bed Christmas Eve, we don't know exactly what will happen, but we're pretty darn sure it's going to be awesome. That's almost a given. The college football regular season is the outright most important and exciting of any American sports can offer. Drama builds steadily from September through October, reaching a fever pitch by early November, then a crescendo around Thanksgiving, when it all sorts out and we know which 2 teams stand atop the heap. That's what's in store for us again this year. And this is one man's prediction of how it will unfold.

My purpose in this blog is to simply predict college football, in a succinct and hopefully entertaining manner. I start with a plethora of preseason predictions, culled from a summer of browsing grocery store magazine racks and infrequent readings of the one preseason mag I allow myself to buy (The Sporting News). Then I weekly take the 15 most intriguing games on the calendar and predict winners. No filling out the 15 with automatic wins and cream puff matchups. I go for the tough stuff, the games that matter. And I try to hit a 70% success rate (yes, I've scaled back the audacious 80% goal I had last year. Lesson learned.).

I also hope to offer a dose of perspective. College football is frickin' sweet, but it ain't the top of the food chain. It's quite miniscule in the grand scheme of things, and while I love the sport as much as just about anybody, I also hope to help put on the brakes and see it for what it is - a diversion. Let's face it, if you're here you're either a) a friend of mine who I invited to read this, possibly on multiple occasions, or b) you've successfully discovered the very edge of the internet universe in your zealous lust for all the college football knowledge you can find. Those in the a) category won't mind any rambling I do. And to those in the b) category, congrats. You've made it. You've ended up about as far from Google as possible. And now I ask you, why have you endeavored such a search? This is college football - pick a few reads and move on to bigger and better things! And while you're at it, make my column one of those few reads. Please?

And to myself I say this - Self, on a good week this bad boy is drawing a dozen readers, you're not exactly going after a Pulitzer here. Keep it fun, don't stress over it, and do it because you enjoy it. You'd be doing it anyway, even if no one cared or read it (which is quite possible).

A couple of other housekeeping notes before the actual predictions begin. This year I'll keep the regular sidebar item of my top 15 (starting after week 1 of course, we all know you can't objectively rank teams before anyone's actually played a game, right?). I'll also add an item called "What I Thought the Polls Would Look Like Now" (WITTPWLLN for short). What I do to come up with my preseason picks is extrapolate the season week by week, predicting wins and losses, and keep a running poll based on those results. So the WITTPWLLN will track how laughably poor those mid-summer guesses really are.

And finally, mercifully, on to the actual predictions. Here are 15 things I think will happen during this college football season.

1. Florida enters Dynasty mode

With the team Florida brings back this year, anything short of an undefeated season and BCS national championship is a huge disappointment. The Detroit Lions would swap with them in a heartbeat. Everyone is back from a ferocious defense, the offense has speed and talent everyone, and a guy named Tim Tebow still mans the QB spot. It's no surprise that every single prediction magazine I've seen forecasts the Gators to finish in the #1 spot. Any other prediction would be considered ludicrous. I'm no different. Even with the pressure that will increase week after week, this team will get it done. Tebow showed last year how much of a competitor and a leader he is, and as long as he's the locker room leader (hint - unless something completely tragic or bizarre happens, he will be), Florida will be able to handle the pressure. The Gators will end the season with their 3rd national title in 4 years, an official dynasty, and this team, this season, will have a legitimate argument to be included in the top 5 or 10 college teams of all time. They have that much potential and Tebow's that much of a leader.

2. Heisman score: Tebow 2, Bradford 1, McCoy 0

Poor Colt McCoy. If he were to play in any other 2 year stretch, he'd almost certainly have at least one Heisman, maybe 2. He deserved it as much as anyone last year, and probably will this year too. The only problem is that there are 2 other guys of the same caliber - great players, great leaders, men full of integrity. Bradford snuck away with the bronzed back last year, Tebow the year before, and McCoy might have the brightest NFL future of the 3 of them. But he'll be a Heisman bridesmaid again. That Tebow guy, who is a media darling, is a clean-cut, respectable, stand-up guy, and an incredibly talented football player leading the best team. If Tebow has another year along the lines of his past 2 (count on it), the Heisman is his.

3. TCU finally gets a turn to crash the BCS

The Horned Frogs have been the most consistently good non-BCS conference teams in the past 10 years, with the only possible competition being Boise State. But TCU has yet to play in a BCS game. Until this year. The defense is incredible again, and the offense has enough experience and balance to keep the D rested and hungry. Defensive end Jerry Hughes is a man among boys, especially in the Mountain West, and while Utah and BYU are both again very good, it's TCU's year. Utah comes to Fort Worth, and while the Horned Frogs have to travel to BYU, they owned them to the tune of 32-7 last year, and terrorized QB Max Hall. A different location won't make enough difference to change that result. TCU will get by their early season hurdle at Clemson and run the table into the BCS.

4. The resurgence of old powers...

Those old powers would be Nebraska, Tennessee, and Michigan. Fifteen years ago you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 without these 3. But hard times come to everyone, and these old guard powers haven't been nearly the same lately. That will change this year. They won't anchor the top 10, but they won't live in the mediocrity of the last few years either. Nebraska is poised and ready to take the Big 12 North with what might be the best defense in the entire conference. Tennessee will parlay a motherlode of freshman talent into a very good SEC season. And Michigan will find it's way back to the upper echelon of the Big 10, though they'll still have some comical moments mixed in. Expect all these teams to spend some time in the top 25, maybe becoming a season-long fixture.

5. ...but not Notre Dame

Many pundits have Notre Dame waltzing through their cushy schedule right into the BCS, but these are mostly the same people who put way too much stock in a blowout win over a WAC also-ran in a lower tier bowl (ND 49, Hawaii 21 in the Hawaii bowl). The Fighting Irish did go 6-6 last year against a schedule that wasn't much more difficult than the one they'll face this time around. And the team still has some big holes. The defense is very green, and many games will become contests where the offense, which is heavily pass-oriented and therefore predictable, has to keep up for the Irish to win. The schedule will enable that strategy to work more often than not, but they'll still lose a few games most will expect them to win. The result? Better than last year, but not there yet.

6. Revenge of the Nerds!

Last year, academically-oriented Vanderbilt qualified for, and won, their first bowl game since 1982. Their season was the first cannon shot of a full-fledged nerd-school uprising. Vandy will challenge for a bowl again (but I think they'll just miss), and joining them in the Dork Revolution will be Stanford, Baylor, and Duke (and Northwestern, but they don't count because they've been decent enough for the last 10 years than their nerd-school brethren have voted them out of the think tank). Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh gets more out of his players than just about anyone, and they'll make a bowl after last year's near miss. Baylor has its most talented team in decades and shouldn't have any trouble ending their 15 year bowl drought. And Duke, the wild card in the mix, is coming off a 4 win season, has an underrated defense, and has the advantage in playing in the always-vulnerable ACC. I expect each of these 3 to pull off a big-time upset (watch out, Texas, Virginia Tech, and Cal).

7. Syracuse - yes, Syracuse - makes a bowl

I see you scrolling toward the Back button - hang on there, Buster, don't give up on me just yet. Hear me out on this one. The Big East is pathetic, possibly the most mediocre it's been since Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College jumped ship. The Orange face very winnable games up and down their conference schedule. They also have a new coach, an alum who's committed to restoring the program to its past heights, and who is willing to take a few risks to make it happen. See: Greg Paulus, former Duke point guard, #1 on the QB depth chart. And Syracuse actually has talent, with 2 guys returning who are offensive game changers and could easily wind up first-team Big East talents. Those would be WR Mike Williams, a big wideout with an NFL future, possibly even as a first round pick; and RB Delone Carter, freshman All-America in 2006 who caught the injury bug the past 2 seasons. Add those things up and take a look at the schedule, which includes 2 almost-certain wins (Maine and Akron), and only one game in which their almost certain to lose (@ Penn State), and a bowl appearance doesn't seem all that farfetched.

8. The Mountain West surpasses the Big East

As noted, the Big East is bad this year. Very bad. It's likely that no Big East team will reside in the top 25 a majority of the weeks this season. Scan the USA Today preseason rankings and you'll find no Big East team in the top 25, but 4 in a row sitting at numbers 29-32 (Cincy, Pitt, WVU, Rutgers). In other words, the pollsters are saying "we know we should be nice and include a Big East team in this thing, but they're all equally mediocre". Even if you were to combine the total number of votes given to each of those 4 teams, plus those belonging to South Florida, the other Big East team receiving votes, this new Big East all-star team would only rank 21st. Yikes. Meanwhile, the Mountain West has 3 teams who'd all win the Big East if they were invited (TCU, BYU, Utah), plus a rapidly improving middle tier of teams who all can give the 3 big boys a scare. The bottom of the Mountain West is still probably a bit behind, but in all other areas, the MWC is superior.

9. The Big 12 surpasses the SEC

This conference call may come as more of a surprise than the last one. But it's conceivable. The SEC has been on top for so long that everyone just assumes it'll be the best conference again this year. But the Big 12 makes a very compelling case. The SEC has the best overall team, but the Big 12 has a trio of teams who all are very legitimate title contenders, in Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma State. Behind Florida, the SEC has a few stretch contenders in Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU, but these each have more question marks than the Big 12 troika. The middle of each conference is about even, maybe a slight SEC edge, but the Big 12 North has improved to the point that it's actually an argument. Usually the place where the SEC can crush other conferences is in the area of strength across the board, but the Big 12 is in the same spot this year. Even lowly Baylor is a frisky underdog, while Colorado, Missouri, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all can come close to the SEC's middle ground. And at the bottom of the conference, the edge goes slightly to the Big 12 too. Mississippi State is bad, Kentucky ain't much better, and Vanderbilt, in spite of last year's success, is still Vanderbilt. Overall advantage: it's slight, but I'm going with the Big 12.

10. The Big Ten gets an even worse reputation

It's not what it used to be, that's for sure. The Big Ten has become the butt of many college football jokes, and don't expect that to change this year. While the conference is the most balanced in all of college football this year (the line dividing 3rd and 9th is razor thin), no one will break through to make significant noise nationally. Ohio State will lose to USC (again), taking the whole conference's rep down with them (again), Penn State will flirt with national prominence but won't quite make it with question marks in the secondary and on the offensive line, and the whole conference will take turns beating each other up throughout the Fall. Expect a winner with 2 conference losses, and a whole bunch of teams hanging around the .500 mark in conference play. In other words, by late October, no one will be paying any national attention to the Big Ten. Too bad too, there are some good, not great, teams and the games should all be very competitive.

11. Oklahoma State, not Ole Miss, is the sleeper national title contender of the year

So many people have leaped headlong onto the Ole Miss bandwagon that it's already collapsed. Magazines and TV analysts have already heaped enormous amounts of praise onto the Rebels, who are expected now to be one of the best teams the school has ever had and an actual national title contender. Way too much thrown onto a team who's never dealt with anything close to this amount of scrutiny and pressure before. Ole Miss will lose a couple of games by mid-October and fall off the national radar. Sure, they'll be good, but a national championship contender? Please. Besides, it's not a sleeper anymore if everyone expects greatness. The cat is officially out of the bag. Stop trying to stick the sleeper and under-the-radar tag on them.

No, the real sleeper resides in Stillwater, Oklahoma, though the sleeper tag would only loosely apply to Oklahoma State as well. The Cowboys have the best skill position set in all of college football in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, and WR Dez Bryant. They also have one of the most underrated coaches in Mike Gundy, who everyone has written off since the "I'm a man, I'm 40" debacle. But he's a very good coach who knows how to make the most of his talent. The Cowboys open with Georgia at home, the chance to make a real statement and dive with momentum into their schedule. They get Texas at home, a team they nearly knocked off in Austin last year, and only play 4 road games, 3 fairly tame (A&M, Baylor, and Iowa State) and 1 nearly impossible (Oklahoma). But that game is the last on the schedule, and who knows what might happen between now and November 28. The only big concern is on defense, but a new coordinator might be just what the doctor ordered. Don't be surprised if Oklahoma State sneaks into the BCS Championship game.

12. South Florida finally breaks into the BCS

The Bulls have been a team on the verge, a budding football superpower for several years. But they've come up short in big games and had potentially great seasons unravel in a series of foolish mistakes. With the Big East where it is, this is their year. They have the best returning players in the conference in QB Matt Groethe and DE George Selvie, they'll have a bit of a chip on their shoulder at being largely unrecognized in Big East predictions, and they're salivating over games against Florida State and Miami (FL), which might be enough to motivate them to not let things unravel when they lose a game they shouldn't.

13. Ten players you might not know yet, but should

These are 10 guys about to make front page headlines rather than remaining in the byline.

1. Bryce Brown, RB, Tennessee. Lane Kiffin won't be afraid to unleash one of the nation's top recruits from last year's class

2. Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama. Big shoes to fill but a bigger hunger to fill them

3. Detron Lewis, WR, Texas Tech. Crabtree's gone, so expect steady Lewis to snare nearly 100 passes

4. Andre Sexton, LB, Oklahoma State. Defense is the question for the Cowboys, and Sexton could be the catalyst in the middle who gets them respect

5. Zac Lee, QB, Nebraska. Will take a few games to get his feet under him, but the team around him will make the transition smooth and he'll prosper

6. Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse. As noted above.

7. Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh. Impact freshman who'll make fans forget about LeSean McCoy

8. Jewel Hampton, RB, Iowa. Could surpass Shonn Greene

9. Derrick Moye, WR, Penn State. May not be a starter, but 6-5 sophomore will emerge as a big play artist

10. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. Just kidding, whole families in remote villages in the Philippines know who he is.

10. Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Miss. Leading returning rusher in NCAA, should crack all-time top 5 by season's end

14. The nations biggest surprise team: Oklahoma State

I hinted at it above, but I'm formally throwing my vote in for Oklahoma State as the competition for Florida in the BCS Championship game. T. Boone Pickens and his oil riches will be proud.

15. The nations most disappointing team: Purdue

New coach, QB vacancy, loads of inexperience, schedule that won't give them a break. Even with the Big Ten a few steps behind their normal strength, the Boilermakers will struggle mightily and may go 0-fer in conference play.

Next Week: A brief look at each conference and their respective winners, bowl projections, and the end-of-season top 25.