The game, of course, is on the Big Ten Network, a channel I'm thankful to get, but at the same time feel a little uncomfortable with the fact that an amateur athletics league has their very own television network. Isn't that just a bit ridiculous? Such is the age we live in - an age when there are about 20 different HBO channels, at least 4 MTV networks, and by my count, 6 kids channels. Why do children need 6 separate channels to choose from? Or maybe a better question would be, why give parents 6 kinds of temptations to take the easy road and pass of the parenting of their child to TV? And to come full circle, why give ourselves numerous college-sports only channels that tempt us to zone out into a world of 24/7 Big Ten sports? Ah, the challenges of living a purposeful life.
Anyway, speaking of conferences - this week we look at my conference predictions, plus the impossible task of bowl matchups, and the even more impossible task of pinpointing the exact order of the final top 25 poll. But away we go!
Conferences
I'll do this in the order of my perceived conference strength, and point out my conference winner, a sleeper contender to look out for, and each conference's biggest disappointment.
1. Big 12
The Big 12 South could be just as good as last year, when Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech all finished with just one loss all season, and all flirted with the number one ranking and a national championship shot. Replace Texas Tech with Oklahoma State, and you get the scene this year. Texas Tech will take a step back after losing Crabtree & Harrell (no, not the attorneys-at-law, the lethal QB-WR combo). But Baylor and Texas A&M will each push forward to make bowls, meaning each of the 6 south teams will be bowl-eligible. Plus, the North division has been improving, be it ever so slowly. They're still way behind the South, but steps forward to make it competitive are at least admirable. Look for Nebraska to take the division, but Colorado could be a surprise winner too. Buffaloes coach Dan Hawkins, never shy about making a scene, said his team would win 10 games this year. Time to put your money where your mouth is, Dan! This is the Big 12! This is big time college football! And Iowa State, as usual, will be the doormat.
Winner: Oklahoma State
Sleeper: Colorado
Disappointment: Kansas
2. SEC
Yep, as announced last week, the SEC will be passed up in overall strength for the first time in nearly a decade. The conference still has some very good teams, but the multiple great teams that have been present in seasons past aren't there this year. Florida, of course, is extremely good, and shouldn't be challenged, even in the SEC. The 3 best teams in the West look about even, but I give Alabama the nod due to a defense that will be just as bruising as last year. LSU still has no proven QB, and Mississippi, everyone's darling, just doesn't quite have the overall talent. Watch out for Tennessee to make some noise in challenging Georgia for the #2 spot behind Florida in the East. The Vols have a slew of freshman talent and lots of moxie, mostly residing in their coach. Lane Kiffin will soon be hated at SEC locales more so than Nick Saban. Mark it down. This year might mark the end of the line for Steve Spurrier, as his South Carolina adventure will continue to run aground with another mediocre season.
Winner: Florida (duh)
Sleeper: Tennessee
Disappointment: Kentucky
3. Pac-10
An east coast bias does exist in college football. For proof, just look at the Pac-10 bowl affiliations: 1) BCS, 2) Holiday Bowl (on Dec. 28), 3) Sun Bowl (in lovely El Paso), 4) Emerald Bowl (Dec. 26), 5) Hawaii Bowl, 6) Pointsettia Bowl, 7) MAACO Bowl Las Vegas (the latter 3 with match ups against either Mountain West or WAC teams). For those of you scoring at home, that's no non-BCS New Year's Day bowls (the only BCS conference that's true of; the SEC has 3), 3 bowls with ties to non-BCS schools, and 3 bowls taking place before Christmas Day. And one bowl with the ridiculous name of "MAACO Bowl Las Vegas". Talk about a lack of respect. But, the Pac-10 does play some good football, and it goes beyond USC. This year, in fact, I'm predicting USC to fail to win the Pac-10 crown for the first time in eight seasons. Oregon has a brutal rushing attack and at some point Nike's money will buy them a championship. Watch out for Cal too, as the leash may be growing short for Jeff Tedford and the seasons of unmet expectations and missed opportunities add up. Oregon State is always underrated, and both Arizona and Stanford will challenge to reach the upper echelon. A lot of people expect UCLA to surge this year, but I think they're still at least one year away and have too many question marks. Their early season matchup at Tennessee might as well be called the "True Freshman Bowl". And, like last year, Washington and Washington State will be terrible. But the most disappointing award goes to Arizona State, who put on cement shoes immediately after their lofty preseason ranking, and I think this year they'll continue to sink lower. They lost their best player in QB Rudy Carpenter and have a midseason stretch in their schedule (Cal, USC, Oregon back-to-back-to-back) that will put the nail in the coffin. Dennis Erickson may be starting re-retirement early.
Winner: Oregon
Sleeper: Arizona
Disappointment: Arizona State
4. Big Ten
Yes, the Big Ten is boring. Yes, it's been on the decline for several years. Yes, it's gained a horrible reputation on the national stage. But it's still better than the ACC. And this might mark the low point for the conference, the year that starts the rebound. Michigan's success will have a lot to do with that, as the conference needs another name program to flourish alongside Penn State and Ohio State. The Wolverines should be markedly better than last year, when a home loss to MAC doormat Toledo may have been the lowest moment in the program's once-proud history. Rich Rodriguez is slowly getting his kind of talent in place, and true freshman QB Tate Forcier may be the mainstay for years to come. Michigan will be back in a bowl, but still be a year or two away from its old self. The rest of the conference is as balanced as any - Penn State has some significant holes to fill, Ohio State looks very vulnerable with the least amount of skill position talent they've had in a long time, and the next 7 in line will pound on each other in a race for third. All those teams are solid but unspectacular, and each will have their moments - coming in upsets, surprise blowouts, and spurts of impressive play. Iowa and Michigan State look to be the best of that bunch. Both will make a push for the crown but falter, and in a photo finish, Penn State will cross the line first. Barely.
Winner: Penn State
Sleeper: Michigan State
Disappointment: Purdue
5. ACC
Predicting the ACC is a bit like playing the lottery - you know you might get lucky and pick the right combination, but the odds are about a million to one. This is a conference in which every team but one (Duke) finished within 2 games of one another in the final standings. And Duke will step right into that mix this year, as they continue their improvement behind coach David Cutcliffe. My best guess? Virginia Tech won't win, in spite of being an overwhelming favorite - they always seem to fall short of expectation, and I don't see Tyrod Taylor piloting a title contender. Miami won't either - they have perhaps the most difficult starting stretch ever (@FSU, GT, @VT, Oklahoma) and they'll be derailed by mid-season, even struggling to make a bowl. Florida State won't either - too many players to replace. Neither North Carolina - Butch Davis can recruit, but has yet to prove that he can coach at a top level. That leaves Georgia Tech, N.C. State, and Clemson as the last remaining true contenders. Something tells me people will catch on to the flexbone offense more this year and Georgia Tech will fail to improve on last years surprising season. N.C. State will make some noise early with a schedule that sets up for them to start 7-0, but all the tough games backloaded into the latter half of the season will kill their momentum, and perhaps turn a potentially great season into a disappointment. And so we're left with Clemson, a team that intrigues me. Last year they were the media's darling in preseason, only to plummet and lose a coach by midseason. This year they're very much under the radar, but still a talented bunch. C.J. Spiller is one of the most talented backs in the country, Jacoby Ford is an all-conference receiver, and the defense will be strong with lots of returning starters. Everyone was a year early on the Clemson bandwagon, but there's plenty of room now!
Winner: Clemson
Sleeper: N.C. State
Disappointment: Miami (FL)
6. Mountain West
As mentioned last week, TCU gets their turn at crashing the BCS party, meaning BYU gets to once again watch as another mid-major has their place at the table. They've seen bitter rival Utah do it twice, and watched 2 WAC teams pass them by as well. The Cougars have perhaps the most storied tradition of the non-BCS schools with a relatively recent national championship trophy (1984) resting in the athletics building (TCU and SMU being the others in the running), yet they've been only a bridesmaid when it comes to making a splash in the BCS era. It's not been for lack of talent either. Max Hall is more than able to pilot BYU to the big show, and just might do so this year, but the memory their ugly 32-7 loss to TCU last year still lingers. TCU's defense terrorized Hall that game, exposing BYU as a team vulnerable to the blitz, and there's no reason to expect differently this year. Just the sight of Jerry Hughes coming off the edge might cause Hall to collapse in the pocket. Utah is another team who will challenge TCU, but I expect them to take a big step back from last year's amazing season - QB Brian Johnson was one of the coolest team leaders in the country and that leadership will be missed greatly. The Utes won some very close games last year, and at least 2 of them were won almost singlehandedly by Johnson's tremendous leadership, especially late in games (see the TCU and Oregon State games). The middle of the conference is improving, but Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, and New Mexico aren't near the level of the top 3.
Winner: TCU
Sleeper: Colorado State
Disappointment: Utah
7. Big East
Here's the problem that plagues the Big East now and will continue to plague the conference until something dramatically changes: the lack of a glamour program. Every other BCS conference has one - storied programs steeped in tradition, with a history woven right into that of college football itself. The type of program that hauls in great recruiting classes year after year because of the value of their name. The programs that rarely stay down for long, simply because they have the brand that enables them to hire a big-time coach and continue to bring in top level recruits regardless of last season's record. USC. Penn State. Texas. Alabama. Notre Dame. The Big East lacks that type of program, and it hurts the whole conference. For a mid-level Big Ten team - say, Purdue for example - recruiting is profoundly helped simply because they can tell a kid, "You'll be playing against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State every year, and get national exposure several weeks each season." If a recruit is choosing between Purdue and Louisville, who resides in roughly the same neighborhood, both geographically and in their brand power, he'll choose Purdue 8 times out of 10. Louisville just can't make the same sell. That's the biggest reason Big East schools rarely ever make it into the top 25 lists for recruiting - there's no power school who will always land there and none of the other schools can keep up with the recruiting power other conferences have. What needs to happen is for Pitt - the school that does have the most traditional power, albeit with 30 years of thick rust, or South Florida - the school with the highest ceiling, to rise to that level. But it won't be easy. Breaking into that upper crust doesn't happen very often. The last time new faces were carved into the Mt. Rushmore of college football's traditional powers was when the 3 Florida teams became consistently elite, and that was over 25 years ago. It could be a long few years for the Big East, and a flame out from BCS inclusion entirely, unless one of their members manages to do what's been nearly impossible. Oh, and by the way, South Florida edges out Pitt for the league title this year.
Winner: South Florida
Sleeper: Rutgers
Disappointment: West Virginia
8. WAC
I have the WAC in front of Conference USA for one reason only - Boise State. The Broncos have distanced themselves so far from the rest of the WAC that a conference loss of any sort would be a spectacular upset. Chris Petersen has gone 35-4 (!) in his 3 seasons at the helm, and with QB Kellen Moore back under center and a cupboard well-stocked with options, Boise State could break into the BCS again. Don't forget that they had an undefeated regular season last year, and that in a rebuilding year. This year the team is rebuilt. Their game with Oregon on the first Thursday of the season could be the only real obstacle standing in the way. So the rest of the conference is a fight for second, a boring mix of teams scattered from Louisiana to Hawaii. Louisiana Tech has the biggest potential to challenge Boise, when the Broncos come calling in November. The conference also includes 2 of the worst teams in Division 1-A in New Mexico State and Idaho.
Winner: Boise State
Sleeper: Louisiana Tech
Disappointment: Nevada
9. Conference USA
Defending champ East Carolina brings back 16 starters, but Southern Miss is my pick to win. The Golden Eagles won their last 5 and return talented players at the skill positions, including RB Damion Fletcher, a senior who's already accumulated over 4,000 yards in his career. In the West, Houston ought to pass up Tulsa with an offense that scores points in the tradition of the old run n' shoot days of Andre Ware and David Klingler.
Winner: Southern Miss
Sleeper: SMU
Disappointment: Memphis
10. MAC
Now we're reaching the point where I have almost nothing intelligent to say. I follow college football fairly closely, but splitting hairs between MAC teams just isn't my cup of tea. Once I get past the BCS conferences, I'm relying almost solely on what my Sporting News preseason magazine says, apart from a few random bits of knowledge here and there. So in nearly a complete guess, I'm picking Western Michigan to beat Buffalo for the crown. But watch out for Temple in the weaker East division - the Owls have been steadily improving under Al Golden (PSU alum), and will push for the division crown while reaching a bowl for the first time in eons.
Winner: Western Michigan
Sleeper: Temple
Disappointment: Bowling Green
11. Sun Belt
Just why is the Sun Belt a Division 1-A conference? In any given year, would more than one of its teams be good enough to qualify for the 1-AA playoffs? I have no idea, and no real reason to make fun, it's just easy to do so at the expense of the worst conference in major college football. In reality they'd probably clean up at the 1-AA ranks. My magazine says Troy is the team to beat, which makes sense, considering they pushed both LSU and Ohio State to the limit last year. But they have to play at Arkansas State, the #2 team according to the Sporting News. Based on home field advantage, Arkansas State it is!
Winner: Arkansas State
Sleeper: Florida International
Disappointment: Florida Atlantic
Bowls
Here's an educated yet wild guess at what the bowl matchups will look like come December, in chronological order with the BCS bowls last:
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State over Temple
St. Petersburg Bowl: West Virginia over Houston
New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State over Tulsa
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas (this year's winner of the Totally Ridiculous Bowl Name award): Arizona over UNLV
Pointsettia Bowl: Utah over UCLA
Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech over Northwestern
Motor City Bowl: Michigan over Central Michigan
Meinike Car Care Bowl: Rutgers over N.C. State
Emerald Bowl: North Carolina over Stanford
Music City Bowl: Miami (FL) over Auburn
Independence Bowl: Arkansas over Missouri
EagleBank Bowl: Cincinnati over Duke
Champs Sports Bowl: Georgia Tech over Illinois
Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State over BYU
Holiday Bowl: California over Nebraska
Texas Bowl: Navy over Texas A&M
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor over SMU
Sun Bowl: Texas Tech over Oregon State
Insight Bowl: Kansas over Wisconsin
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Tennessee over Florida State
Outback Bowl: Georgia over Michigan State
Gator Bowl: Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Capital One Bowl: LSU over Ohio State
International Bowl: Buffalo over Syracuse
Cotton Bowl: Texas over Mississippi
Papajohns.com Bowl: Pittsburgh over South Carolina
Liberty Bowl: Southern Miss over Minnesota
Alamo Bowl: Iowa over Colorado
GMAC Bowl: Western Michigan over East Carolina
Rose Bowl: Penn State over Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma over USC
Orange Bowl: South Florida over Clemson
BCS National Championship: Florida over Oklahoma State
The Final Poll
Before you scan this list, be sure to note the following fact: this represents how I think the season will END, not how I'd rank the teams right now. It should be very comical to revisit this list on January 9.
1) Florida
2) Oklahoma
3) Oklahoma State
4) Texas
5) Alabama
6) Penn State
7) USC
8) LSU
9) TCU
10) Boise State
11) Oregon
12) South Florida
13) Virginia Tech
14) Georgia
15) Clemson
16) Iowa
17) Tennessee
18) Mississippi
19) California
20) Ohio State
21) Southern Miss
22) Michigan State
23) Rutgers
24) Georgia Tech
25) Colorado
Next week: the wait is over! College football returns September 3, the Freshman 15 week one predictions post the night before.
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