But we all anticipate. So we scour preseason magazines, play out the ideal season in our heads, check ebay every 15 minutes for the latest ticket deals. Even fans of the most troubled programs, like Washington or Texas A&M, hold on to that glimmer, however faint it might be, that a miracle season is out there to be grasped. They dream of the flame thrower but will almost certainly end up with 2 packs of Fruit Of The Loom and a Tonka truck.
And as September draws nearer, we find the anxiety and eagerness growing, like what kids feel on Christmas Eve as they try to talk themselves to sleep at 1am, because they know morning will come faster if they do. And like so many kids going to bed Christmas Eve, we don't know exactly what will happen, but we're pretty darn sure it's going to be awesome. That's almost a given. The college football regular season is the outright most important and exciting of any American sports can offer. Drama builds steadily from September through October, reaching a fever pitch by early November, then a crescendo around Thanksgiving, when it all sorts out and we know which 2 teams stand atop the heap. That's what's in store for us again this year. And this is one man's prediction of how it will unfold.
My purpose in this blog is to simply predict college football, in a succinct and hopefully entertaining manner. I start with a plethora of preseason predictions, culled from a summer of browsing grocery store magazine racks and infrequent readings of the one preseason mag I allow myself to buy (The Sporting News). Then I weekly take the 15 most intriguing games on the calendar and predict winners. No filling out the 15 with automatic wins and cream puff matchups. I go for the tough stuff, the games that matter. And I try to hit a 70% success rate (yes, I've scaled back the audacious 80% goal I had last year. Lesson learned.).
I also hope to offer a dose of perspective. College football is frickin' sweet, but it ain't the top of the food chain. It's quite miniscule in the grand scheme of things, and while I love the sport as much as just about anybody, I also hope to help put on the brakes and see it for what it is - a diversion. Let's face it, if you're here you're either a) a friend of mine who I invited to read this, possibly on multiple occasions, or b) you've successfully discovered the very edge of the internet universe in your zealous lust for all the college football knowledge you can find. Those in the a) category won't mind any rambling I do. And to those in the b) category, congrats. You've made it. You've ended up about as far from Google as possible. And now I ask you, why have you endeavored such a search? This is college football - pick a few reads and move on to bigger and better things! And while you're at it, make my column one of those few reads. Please?
And to myself I say this - Self, on a good week this bad boy is drawing a dozen readers, you're not exactly going after a Pulitzer here. Keep it fun, don't stress over it, and do it because you enjoy it. You'd be doing it anyway, even if no one cared or read it (which is quite possible).
A couple of other housekeeping notes before the actual predictions begin. This year I'll keep the regular sidebar item of my top 15 (starting after week 1 of course, we all know you can't objectively rank teams before anyone's actually played a game, right?). I'll also add an item called "What I Thought the Polls Would Look Like Now" (WITTPWLLN for short). What I do to come up with my preseason picks is extrapolate the season week by week, predicting wins and losses, and keep a running poll based on those results. So the WITTPWLLN will track how laughably poor those mid-summer guesses really are.
And finally, mercifully, on to the actual predictions. Here are 15 things I think will happen during this college football season.
1. Florida enters Dynasty mode
With the team Florida brings back this year, anything short of an undefeated season and BCS national championship is a huge disappointment. The Detroit Lions would swap with them in a heartbeat. Everyone is back from a ferocious defense, the offense has speed and talent everyone, and a guy named Tim Tebow still mans the QB spot. It's no surprise that every single prediction magazine I've seen forecasts the Gators to finish in the #1 spot. Any other prediction would be considered ludicrous. I'm no different. Even with the pressure that will increase week after week, this team will get it done. Tebow showed last year how much of a competitor and a leader he is, and as long as he's the locker room leader (hint - unless something completely tragic or bizarre happens, he will be), Florida will be able to handle the pressure. The Gators will end the season with their 3rd national title in 4 years, an official dynasty, and this team, this season, will have a legitimate argument to be included in the top 5 or 10 college teams of all time. They have that much potential and Tebow's that much of a leader.
2. Heisman score: Tebow 2, Bradford 1, McCoy 0
Poor Colt McCoy. If he were to play in any other 2 year stretch, he'd almost certainly have at least one Heisman, maybe 2. He deserved it as much as anyone last year, and probably will this year too. The only problem is that there are 2 other guys of the same caliber - great players, great leaders, men full of integrity. Bradford snuck away with the bronzed back last year, Tebow the year before, and McCoy might have the brightest NFL future of the 3 of them. But he'll be a Heisman bridesmaid again. That Tebow guy, who is a media darling, is a clean-cut, respectable, stand-up guy, and an incredibly talented football player leading the best team. If Tebow has another year along the lines of his past 2 (count on it), the Heisman is his.
3. TCU finally gets a turn to crash the BCS
The Horned Frogs have been the most consistently good non-BCS conference teams in the past 10 years, with the only possible competition being Boise State. But TCU has yet to play in a BCS game. Until this year. The defense is incredible again, and the offense has enough experience and balance to keep the D rested and hungry. Defensive end Jerry Hughes is a man among boys, especially in the Mountain West, and while Utah and BYU are both again very good, it's TCU's year. Utah comes to Fort Worth, and while the Horned Frogs have to travel to BYU, they owned them to the tune of 32-7 last year, and terrorized QB Max Hall. A different location won't make enough difference to change that result. TCU will get by their early season hurdle at Clemson and run the table into the BCS.
4. The resurgence of old powers...
Those old powers would be Nebraska, Tennessee, and Michigan. Fifteen years ago you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 without these 3. But hard times come to everyone, and these old guard powers haven't been nearly the same lately. That will change this year. They won't anchor the top 10, but they won't live in the mediocrity of the last few years either. Nebraska is poised and ready to take the Big 12 North with what might be the best defense in the entire conference. Tennessee will parlay a motherlode of freshman talent into a very good SEC season. And Michigan will find it's way back to the upper echelon of the Big 10, though they'll still have some comical moments mixed in. Expect all these teams to spend some time in the top 25, maybe becoming a season-long fixture.
5. ...but not Notre Dame
Many pundits have Notre Dame waltzing through their cushy schedule right into the BCS, but these are mostly the same people who put way too much stock in a blowout win over a WAC also-ran in a lower tier bowl (ND 49, Hawaii 21 in the Hawaii bowl). The Fighting Irish did go 6-6 last year against a schedule that wasn't much more difficult than the one they'll face this time around. And the team still has some big holes. The defense is very green, and many games will become contests where the offense, which is heavily pass-oriented and therefore predictable, has to keep up for the Irish to win. The schedule will enable that strategy to work more often than not, but they'll still lose a few games most will expect them to win. The result? Better than last year, but not there yet.
6. Revenge of the Nerds!
Last year, academically-oriented Vanderbilt qualified for, and won, their first bowl game since 1982. Their season was the first cannon shot of a full-fledged nerd-school uprising. Vandy will challenge for a bowl again (but I think they'll just miss), and joining them in the Dork Revolution will be Stanford, Baylor, and Duke (and Northwestern, but they don't count because they've been decent enough for the last 10 years than their nerd-school brethren have voted them out of the think tank). Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh gets more out of his players than just about anyone, and they'll make a bowl after last year's near miss. Baylor has its most talented team in decades and shouldn't have any trouble ending their 15 year bowl drought. And Duke, the wild card in the mix, is coming off a 4 win season, has an underrated defense, and has the advantage in playing in the always-vulnerable ACC. I expect each of these 3 to pull off a big-time upset (watch out, Texas, Virginia Tech, and Cal).
7. Syracuse - yes, Syracuse - makes a bowl
I see you scrolling toward the Back button - hang on there, Buster, don't give up on me just yet. Hear me out on this one. The Big East is pathetic, possibly the most mediocre it's been since Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College jumped ship. The Orange face very winnable games up and down their conference schedule. They also have a new coach, an alum who's committed to restoring the program to its past heights, and who is willing to take a few risks to make it happen. See: Greg Paulus, former Duke point guard, #1 on the QB depth chart. And Syracuse actually has talent, with 2 guys returning who are offensive game changers and could easily wind up first-team Big East talents. Those would be WR Mike Williams, a big wideout with an NFL future, possibly even as a first round pick; and RB Delone Carter, freshman All-America in 2006 who caught the injury bug the past 2 seasons. Add those things up and take a look at the schedule, which includes 2 almost-certain wins (Maine and Akron), and only one game in which their almost certain to lose (@ Penn State), and a bowl appearance doesn't seem all that farfetched.
8. The Mountain West surpasses the Big East
As noted, the Big East is bad this year. Very bad. It's likely that no Big East team will reside in the top 25 a majority of the weeks this season. Scan the USA Today preseason rankings and you'll find no Big East team in the top 25, but 4 in a row sitting at numbers 29-32 (Cincy, Pitt, WVU, Rutgers). In other words, the pollsters are saying "we know we should be nice and include a Big East team in this thing, but they're all equally mediocre". Even if you were to combine the total number of votes given to each of those 4 teams, plus those belonging to South Florida, the other Big East team receiving votes, this new Big East all-star team would only rank 21st. Yikes. Meanwhile, the Mountain West has 3 teams who'd all win the Big East if they were invited (TCU, BYU, Utah), plus a rapidly improving middle tier of teams who all can give the 3 big boys a scare. The bottom of the Mountain West is still probably a bit behind, but in all other areas, the MWC is superior.
9. The Big 12 surpasses the SEC
This conference call may come as more of a surprise than the last one. But it's conceivable. The SEC has been on top for so long that everyone just assumes it'll be the best conference again this year. But the Big 12 makes a very compelling case. The SEC has the best overall team, but the Big 12 has a trio of teams who all are very legitimate title contenders, in Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma State. Behind Florida, the SEC has a few stretch contenders in Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU, but these each have more question marks than the Big 12 troika. The middle of each conference is about even, maybe a slight SEC edge, but the Big 12 North has improved to the point that it's actually an argument. Usually the place where the SEC can crush other conferences is in the area of strength across the board, but the Big 12 is in the same spot this year. Even lowly Baylor is a frisky underdog, while Colorado, Missouri, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all can come close to the SEC's middle ground. And at the bottom of the conference, the edge goes slightly to the Big 12 too. Mississippi State is bad, Kentucky ain't much better, and Vanderbilt, in spite of last year's success, is still Vanderbilt. Overall advantage: it's slight, but I'm going with the Big 12.
10. The Big Ten gets an even worse reputation
It's not what it used to be, that's for sure. The Big Ten has become the butt of many college football jokes, and don't expect that to change this year. While the conference is the most balanced in all of college football this year (the line dividing 3rd and 9th is razor thin), no one will break through to make significant noise nationally. Ohio State will lose to USC (again), taking the whole conference's rep down with them (again), Penn State will flirt with national prominence but won't quite make it with question marks in the secondary and on the offensive line, and the whole conference will take turns beating each other up throughout the Fall. Expect a winner with 2 conference losses, and a whole bunch of teams hanging around the .500 mark in conference play. In other words, by late October, no one will be paying any national attention to the Big Ten. Too bad too, there are some good, not great, teams and the games should all be very competitive.
11. Oklahoma State, not Ole Miss, is the sleeper national title contender of the year
So many people have leaped headlong onto the Ole Miss bandwagon that it's already collapsed. Magazines and TV analysts have already heaped enormous amounts of praise onto the Rebels, who are expected now to be one of the best teams the school has ever had and an actual national title contender. Way too much thrown onto a team who's never dealt with anything close to this amount of scrutiny and pressure before. Ole Miss will lose a couple of games by mid-October and fall off the national radar. Sure, they'll be good, but a national championship contender? Please. Besides, it's not a sleeper anymore if everyone expects greatness. The cat is officially out of the bag. Stop trying to stick the sleeper and under-the-radar tag on them.
No, the real sleeper resides in Stillwater, Oklahoma, though the sleeper tag would only loosely apply to Oklahoma State as well. The Cowboys have the best skill position set in all of college football in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, and WR Dez Bryant. They also have one of the most underrated coaches in Mike Gundy, who everyone has written off since the "I'm a man, I'm 40" debacle. But he's a very good coach who knows how to make the most of his talent. The Cowboys open with Georgia at home, the chance to make a real statement and dive with momentum into their schedule. They get Texas at home, a team they nearly knocked off in Austin last year, and only play 4 road games, 3 fairly tame (A&M, Baylor, and Iowa State) and 1 nearly impossible (Oklahoma). But that game is the last on the schedule, and who knows what might happen between now and November 28. The only big concern is on defense, but a new coordinator might be just what the doctor ordered. Don't be surprised if Oklahoma State sneaks into the BCS Championship game.
12. South Florida finally breaks into the BCS
The Bulls have been a team on the verge, a budding football superpower for several years. But they've come up short in big games and had potentially great seasons unravel in a series of foolish mistakes. With the Big East where it is, this is their year. They have the best returning players in the conference in QB Matt Groethe and DE George Selvie, they'll have a bit of a chip on their shoulder at being largely unrecognized in Big East predictions, and they're salivating over games against Florida State and Miami (FL), which might be enough to motivate them to not let things unravel when they lose a game they shouldn't.
13. Ten players you might not know yet, but should
These are 10 guys about to make front page headlines rather than remaining in the byline.
1. Bryce Brown, RB, Tennessee. Lane Kiffin won't be afraid to unleash one of the nation's top recruits from last year's class
2. Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama. Big shoes to fill but a bigger hunger to fill them
3. Detron Lewis, WR, Texas Tech. Crabtree's gone, so expect steady Lewis to snare nearly 100 passes
4. Andre Sexton, LB, Oklahoma State. Defense is the question for the Cowboys, and Sexton could be the catalyst in the middle who gets them respect
5. Zac Lee, QB, Nebraska. Will take a few games to get his feet under him, but the team around him will make the transition smooth and he'll prosper
6. Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse. As noted above.
7. Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh. Impact freshman who'll make fans forget about LeSean McCoy
8. Jewel Hampton, RB, Iowa. Could surpass Shonn Greene
9. Derrick Moye, WR, Penn State. May not be a starter, but 6-5 sophomore will emerge as a big play artist
10. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. Just kidding, whole families in remote villages in the Philippines know who he is.
10. Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Miss. Leading returning rusher in NCAA, should crack all-time top 5 by season's end
14. The nations biggest surprise team: Oklahoma State
I hinted at it above, but I'm formally throwing my vote in for Oklahoma State as the competition for Florida in the BCS Championship game. T. Boone Pickens and his oil riches will be proud.
15. The nations most disappointing team: Purdue
New coach, QB vacancy, loads of inexperience, schedule that won't give them a break. Even with the Big Ten a few steps behind their normal strength, the Boilermakers will struggle mightily and may go 0-fer in conference play.
Next Week: A brief look at each conference and their respective winners, bowl projections, and the end-of-season top 25.
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