The Best 15 Games of 2009

Admittedly this wasn't the greatest season in recent memory, but it did manage to produce a few memorable performances. Out of the morass comes these fifteen, in reverse order. Let the argument begin.

15. Iowa 17, Northern Iowa 16

Iowa City, IA (Sept. 5)

If the cardiac Hawkeyes had managed to complete the season unscathed this game would rank much higher. This was the first of many close calls, which ended when Iowa lost Ricky Stanzi and their undefeated run against Northwestern. Anytime a minnow seriously threatens to swallow a college football shark, you have to take notice, and the Panthers certainly woke the Hawkeyes up on September 5. Iowa was forced to block not one, but two field goal attempts to preserve their one point lead with just seconds remaining.

14. Michigan 38, Notre Dame 34

Ann Arbor, MI (Sept. 12)

At the time this game was played, no one had any notion that neither of these traditional powers would fail to qualify for a bowl, so the game had a much greater air of importance than what it does in hindsight. And it was a thriller, as the teams traded touchdowns through the fourth quarter - Notre Dame first overcoming an 11 point deficit, then the Wolverines scoring on a Tate Forcier TD pass to Greg Mathews with 11 seconds left to clinch the win.

13. Texas 49, Texas A&M 39

College Station, TX (Nov. 26)

After Texas cleared what appeared to be their final hurdle, at Oklahoma State on October 31, most of the nation wrote their name into the national title game in Sharpie. Little did anyone know how difficult those final few games would be on the way to Pasadena. Jarrod Johnson and Texas A&M knifed through the Longhorn defense, refusing to bow out even after Texas twice took double digit leads. But Colt McCoy was one better than Johnson, and Marquise Goodwin iced it for Texas with a kickoff return TD when the Aggies had once again cut the Longhorn lead to 3. More on Texas' rough road later.

12. Boise State 17, TCU 10

Glendale, AZ (Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4)

This is the first of a few games on this list that I didn't watch. Priorities. But it belongs because of the historic appearance of 2 non-BCS schools making the BCS show, and Boise State once again flipped to the last page of the playbook, dialing up a fake punt from their own territory in the fourth quarter of a tie game to spark the winning TD. Then the Broncos iced it with defense, picking off Andy Dalton with less than 30 seconds remaining and TCU driving for a tie.

11. Connecticut 33, Notre Dame 30 (2OT)

South Bend, IN (Nov. 21)

Two teams that played more than their share of close games were true to the script on this day in South Bend, and UConn played valiant, come-from-behind football, gaining their first lead of the day in overtime. Randy Edsall said it was his program's best win, and the Huskies dedicated the win to fallen teammate Jasper Howard, their first since his murder on campus.

10. Oregon 37, Oregon State 33

Eugene, OR (Dec. 3)

The de facto Pac Ten title game was a thriller. It was likely the most important Civil War game of all time, and arguably the most exciting. The teams raced up and down the field for 3 quarters, entering the fourth at a score of 34-33. Then the defenses stiffened (a little), and Oregon sealed the deal with one of the program's great drives: a six minute monster that featured 2 fourth down conversions, forcing the Beavers to use all their timeouts and wringing every last second from the game clock.

9. Missouri 41, Kansas 39

Kansas City, MO (Nov. 28)

Neither Missouri nor Kansas had the season they'd hoped for, but Missouri at least got to finish it with a thrilling win over their arch-rival. After a shootout, all Kansas needed to do was run out the clock after receiving the ball with under 3 minutes left and a 3 point lead. Todd Reesing had already passed for 498 yards, so Missouri's defense would pose no threat, right? Nope. The Tigers sacked Ressing for a safety, forcing the Jayhawks to kick off and give Missouri a chance for the outright win, which they did with a buzzer-beating field goal.

8. Fresno State 53, Illinois 52

Champaign, IL (Dec. 5)

Possibly the wildest finish of the season happened in the murky backwater of college football's last weekend. With all eyes on the conference championships, Fresno State managed two improbable final plays to cap a wild, high scoring affair in Champaign. First, Fresno receiver Jamel Hamler, a name you aren't likely to find on the front page of Mel Kiper's big board, made one of the most acrobatic plays a receiver can make, catching a pass at the 4 yard line in the middle of the field with 2 seconds left, then as his knees were being taken out by an Illinois defender, stretching his full body length to extend the ball across the goal line before hitting the ground. That was followed by the gutsy call to go for 2 instead of playing for overtime, and in what has to be one of the weirdest ends to a game, a deflected hail mary pass was gathered gently into the breadbasket of Devan Cunningham, an offensive lineman, who plowed his way through a stunned Illinois defender for the win. Catch the craziness here.

7. Auburn 38, Northwestern 35

Tampa, FL (Outback Bowl, Jan. 1)

Staying in the wild finish department, this was the craziest bowl game this year had to offer. Northwestern QB Mike Kafka threw 78 passes. Two were intercepted in the end zone, one run back for a TD. The Wildcats scored twice in the final 4 minutes to force OT, needed a 2 point conversion on the second score because they had their previous extra point blocked. Then, with their kicker injured, Northwestern faked what would have been a tying field goal in OT, only to be tackled at the 2 yard line.

6. Miami (FL) 38, Florida State 34

Tallahassee, FL (Sept. 7)

The best the early season had to offer, a wild game between old rivals that came down to the final play. Jacory Harris looked like a Heisman winner, making incredible throw after incredible throw and rallying the Hurricanes to a late lead. But Florida State marched down the field in the final 2 minutes, only to fall short of a come from behind win at home with 3 incomplete passes into the end zone in the final seconds. The last one needed video review to confirm the pass was incomplete, and Miami had survived, and leapt into a successful campaign that should springboard to a great 2010 year.

5. Cincinnati 45, Pittsburgh 44

Pittsburgh, PA (Dec. 5)

What was essentially the Big East championship game came down to a botched PAT and a porous second half defense by Pitt. Cincinnati rallied from down 31-10 to tie at 38, and then Pitt re-took the lead on one of Dion Lewis's incredible 47 carries, the last a 5 yard TD. But a good snap was mishandled, and Cincinnati had an open door. Tony Pike drove Cincinnati 61 yards for the winning TD, polishing off a Big East title and an undefeated regular season.

4. Ohio State 27, Iowa 24

Columbus, OH (Nov. 14)

Another de facto conference championship saw Ohio State hold off a plucky and undermanned Iowa squad who'd seen their hopes of an undefeated season, and their starting QB, lost the week before. Iowa fell behind 24-10 in the fourth, but rallied behind no-name freshman QB James Vandenberg to force OT. The Vandenberg magic wouldn't continue in OT, as the Buckeye defense pushed Iowa out of field goal range, giving themselves a chance to win by field goal.

3. Mississippi 25, LSU 23

Oxford, MS (Nov. 21)

LSU could have many games in the top 15 (vs. Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi State, etc.), but I've chosen this one because it sums up their season and the cool clock managing efficiency of Les Miles. What was a good game became memorable in the last 2 minutes. LSU scored, missed a tying 2 point conversion, recovered an onside kick, let precious seconds run off the clock when they failed to call timeout after one play, completed a hail mary pass to the 6 yard line with one second left, then in their euphoria over the accomplishment left their offense in instead of rushing the field goal unit on, unsuccessfully attempting to spike the ball. You can't spike it with one second left and expect time to remain. And so Ole Miss held on.

2. Alabama 26, Auburn 21

Auburn, AL (Nov. 27)

Alabama's closest call was not the need for a blocked field goal against Tennessee. It was in the Iron Bowl, when Auburn ran every gadget play in the book in the first quarter, essentially throwing the kitchen sink and several small appliances, including a peppermill and a bagel slicer, at the Crimson Tide. The shenanigans fired up the Tigers and the home crowd, and gave them a 14-0 lead. Alabama fought back to tie, but Auburn managed to re-take the lead in the third quarter, and their defense did their best to preserve it, only to succumb to one of the great drives in Alabama history, Greg McElroy marching his offense 79 yards in 15 plays to score the winning TD.

1. Texas 13, Nebraska 12

Arlington, TX (Dec. 5, Big 12 Championship)

The most intriguing game to watch all season. Ndamukong Suh was as dominant as any defensive player was in any one game in college football history, nearly winning the Heisman trophy and the upset of the year by himself. But Colt McCoy had the last laugh. Barely. Nebraska took the lead with 1:44 left, then McCoy drove his Longhorns into field goal range before enrolling in the Les Miles school of clock management. As though he wasn't aware that the clock was rolling, he took his time before snapping the ball on their final offensive play, then nonchalantly rolled to his right as the seconds clicked off before heaving a lazy ball out of bounds. The clock actually hit triple zero and Nebraska was euphoric, before the officials added one last second. Has a gust of wind struck at the wrong moment, Texas wouldn't have played for the BCS championship. But they had their second, and Hunter Lawrence kicked the Longhorns to Pasadena.

Next week: a look at the four-year rankings in a symbolic thumbing of the nose to the ridiculous hoopla of national signing day.

Season Predictions Review

Well, this should be fun. I just read through my first post of this season, from way back in early August, where I unveiled my Fifteen Fearless Forecasts for the season. And now, a full 5 months later, it's time to revisit those fearless forecasts in an effort to find out just how good (or bad) I did. The result, as you'll soon see, is laughable.

But before I get into all that, kudos begrudgingly go to Alabama for being this season's grand prizewinner. Begrudgingly because I'm not even remotely on the Nick Saban bandwagon, and because my forecast of the title game was eerily close to becoming a reality until Colt McCoy got jacked in the back. You laugh, I know, saying, "That was less than halfway through the first quarter!". Conceded. But - at that point Texas was dominant, it's defense slicing through the middle of the Alabama O-line and causing havoc for Greg McElroy (as I anticipated), and McCoy using a mix of short passes to capitalize on Alabama's turnovers (as I also predicted). Then it all came crashing down, and Garrett Gilbert, who will eventually have his day, was left trembling before the fearsome Crimson Tide defense. Imagine his reaction when McCoy jogged off the field, rather casually for someone about to exit the biggest game of his life for good, and leaned over to poor Garrett, saying this in his mesmerizing Texas drawl: "I'm hurtin'. I ain't gonna be able to get it done Garrett. You're up, pardner!" If only we could have seen Gilbert's face, or read his thoughts: "Boy, Colt sure did get licked. But he's tough as a bull, and there ain't no way he's leavin' this game. Look there, he's galloping off the field alright, that's a relief. I guess I'll clean the grass outta my cleats again. This Rose Bowl turf sure is thick. I'm glad I won't be tackled on it. Gotta keep a clean backside for the ladies! Wait, Colt just said something. What was that? Ain't gonna be able to get it done? You're up? What? I ain't done nothing but hold a clipboard all year! I don't even know who the fourth receiver is! This can't be true. Please, don't let it be true! What about my clean backside? Wait, there's Colt on the bench now. Trainer's unbuckling the pads. Oh no. I think I'm going to be sick. Oh no. Oh please no. Yep, I'm definitely gonna hurl. Fettucine alfredo an hour before kickoff was a bad decision." And there went the national championship, and my sweet looking prediction.

And on that note, on to more sweet looking predictions that turned very sour. The way I'll do this is reveal my fearless forecast, explain it if necessary, then award it with one of the following grades: WIN, FAIL, or PUSH. And perhaps make fun of myself for a bit. When that's through, I'll give you my single best and single worst predictions of the season, just for kicks. Here goes.

Forecast #1: Florida Enters Dynasty Mode

Verdict: FAIL

There was no other option here, epic win or epic fail. We all know how it ended up: the Gators plodded through an unspectacular yet undefeated regular season, then Tim Tebow spent the last few minutes of his SEC career in tears as he watched Alabama complete their massacre.

Forecast #2: Heisman Score: Tebow 2, Bradford 1, McCoy 0

Verdict: FAIL

Someone named Mark Ingram swooped in and stole the show. And by the end of the season, Bradford was in a sling, and McCoy and Bradford were only in New York because they were there the year before.

Forecast #3: TCU finally gets a turn to crash the BCS

Verdict: WIN!

Good on ya, me! Too bad Boise also crashed the party (again) and stole the Horned Frogs' thunder.

Forecast #4: The Resurgence of Old Powers...

Those "old powers" being Nebraska (WIN!), Tennessee (FAIL), and Michigan (EPIC FAIL). Nebraska was an updraft away from winning the Big 12 championship, and their defense became one of the most dominant in the country. I claimed Tennessee would "parlay a motherlode of freshman talent into a very good SEC season" - "mediocre" would have been more appropriate. But at least they made a bowl. The Michigan Fail Train crashed again, derailing after a promising 4-0 start. They won only one more game after that, against Delaware State. Awesome.

Forecast #5: ...But Not Notre Dame

Verdict: WIN! Glorious WIN!

And the Irish did even worse than I thought they would, even falling short of a bowl game in a season which a BCS game was all but served to them before the year began.

Forecast #6: Revenge of the Nerds!

Translation: Duke, Stanford, and Baylor would make bowls. That would be FAIL, WIN, FAIL. But it won't be long for Baylor.

Forecast #7: Syracuse - yes, Syracuse - makes a bowl

Verdict: FAIL

Let's just move along and pretend we didn't see any of that.

Forecast #8: The Mountain West Surpasses the Big East

Verdict: WIN (barely)

The Big East looked terrible heading into the year, but that was before Cincinnati turned the corner from rebuilder to reloader and Pitt's Dion Lewis surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. Still, the Mountain West proved it in the bowls, landed their top team higher than the Big East's in the final rankings, and boasted more top 25 teams (3 to the Big East's 2) at year's end. In a photo finish, that gives the Mountain West the slight edge, though the result is under protest.

Forecast #9: The Big 12 Surpasses the SEC

Verdict: FAIL

Big time Fail. It was Texas and the Little 11, though Nebraska would have fit in well in the SEC, which once again proved itself as the mightiest conference in the land. Four straight national titles with no end in sight. Ugh.

Forecast #10: The Big Ten gets an even worse reputation

Verdict: FAIL

Heading into the bowls, this looked to be true. Then the Big Ten remarkably pulled off an all-time first: 4 bowl wins against top 15 opponents by a single conference. Not bad, and proof that perception has not been reality for the stodgy, traditional Midwesterners.

Forecast #11: Oklahoma State, not Ole Miss, is the sleeper national title contender of the year

Verdict: PUSH

I got it half right: Ole Miss indeed was no national title contender. But neither were the Cowboys. Ironically these 2 met in the Cotton Bowl, with Ole Miss winning the battle of failed expectations.

Forecast #12: South Florida finally breaks into the BCS

Verdict: FAIL

Instead of playing January football in Miami or Glendale, the Bulls were awarded with a trip to icy Toronto, which might as well have been called "Cool Runnings 2: Toronto Blitz". And then the only coach the program's ever had got canned for punching one of his players.

Forecast #13: Ten Players you might not know yet, but should

1. Bryce Bowen, RB, Tennessee (FAIL)

2. Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama (WIN!)

3. Detron Lewis, WR, Texas Tech (PUSH)

4. Andre Sexton, LB, Oklahoma State (FAIL)

5. Zac Lee, QB, Nebraska (PUSH)

6. Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse (FAIL)

7. Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh (WIN!)

8. Jewel Hampton, RB, Iowa (N/A - injury)

9. Derrick Moye, WR, Penn State (WIN!)

10. Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Miss (PUSH)

Forecast #14: The nation's biggest surprise team: Oklahoma State

Verdict: FAIL

Sometimes when you try to shoot the moon, you end up biting it big time. The real biggest surprise team: Cincinnati, who came out of almost nowhere to go undefeated, before being abandoned by their coach.

Forecast #15: The nations's most disappointing team: Purdue

Verdict: FAIL

The Boilermakers turned out to be pretty decent, and took out Rose Bowl champion Ohio State. The real winner of this award would be conference mate Illinois, who went from Rose Bowl to 3-9 in 2 years, with lots of the same players.

For those of you scoring at home, that's 8 WINS, 14 FAILS, 3 PUSHES, and 1 EPIC FAIL (Michigan). Not terrible, but not good either. That's what you get when you try to predict the whole season in one fell swoop.

And finally, my single best and worst picks of the year...

Single Best Pick of the Year!

That would go to my Pac Ten analysis in my preseason conference picks. Here's some of what I wrote:

"This year, in fact, I'm predicting USC to fail to win the Pac-10 crown for the first time in eight seasons. Oregon has a brutal rushing attack and at some point Nike's money will buy them a championship. Watch out for Cal too, as the leash may be growing short for Jeff Tedford and the seasons of unmet expectations and missed opportunities add up. Oregon State is always underrated, and both Arizona and Stanford will challenge to reach the upper echelon. A lot of people expect UCLA to surge this year, but I think they're still at least one year away and have too many question marks."

Not bad, eh? But before it gets to my head...

Single Worst Pick of the Year!

There are lots to choose from here. From predicting South Florida to win the Big East, to labeling Colorado as a sleeper to win the Big 12 North, to tagging Oklahoma State as a national championship game contestant. But the winner is...

I picked Syracuse to go to a bowl game. Yes, THAT Syracuse. Look away Jerry, I'm hideous!

Next week: the top 15 games of the year.

And lest we forget, please do something to help the devastated people of Haiti. Donate money. Find a food or supply packing event in your area. Pray. Click on last week's post for reputable organizations to give to. Thanks.

Bigger than Football

Sometimes football can wait.

The terrible earthquake in Haiti and the horrifying aftermath has taken my attention this week, and instead of moving forward to review my preseason predictions, which seem even more meaningless now, I decided to use the time I'd typically use to write this blog to post on another blog I contribute to. I'm on staff with Campus Crusade for Christ in Pittsburgh, and our staff team has a blog that we periodically post to. I'd be honored if you clicked here to read what I've written there:

www.pghmetrocru.blogspot.com

Also, in light of the disaster and tremendous need in Haiti, please consider donating to help provide aid and relief to the Haitian people. It may be taking a long time for aid to make it to the country, but the need will continue for months and even years. These are just a few of the organizations that are reputable and would be a worthwhile investment of your help:

Global Aid Network

Samaritan's Purse

World Vision

American Red Cross

Unicef

Thanks. Back to college football next week.

National Championship Preview

It's nice to be back at the keyboard after a few weeks away; not nice, however, to mull over my bowl picks to date. I'm on pace to do worse than last year's lackluster 16-18 effort. I contend that it's not completely my fault - few saw results such as Wyoming over Fresno State or SMU over Nevada coming. Even fewer saw the Big Ten's top 4 defeating some of the best the SEC, Pac Ten, and ACC had to offer. That's got to be the story of the bowl season so far, trumping the scalp collecting Mountain West and even the strange events surrounding some of the top coaching jobs in the country. Has the Big Ten done enough this bowl season to silence their many critics? Or will the stigma take another year to wear down? My guess is that it takes another year, but the continued negative perception is unfounded.

On the coaching weirdness: when have so many stories surrounding big name head coaches surfaced in so short a time? It began rather innocuously with Brian Kelly treating the entire city of Cincinnati as a rickety stepladder on his way to Notre Dame. Then came Urban Meyer's best Brett Favre impression and subsequent fallout (at least one recruit reports that he vows to be on the sideline in August; Meyer's sabbatical was deemed "indefinite" - targeting August appears fairly definite to me). Then the war of speculation waged by Mike Leach and Texas Tech after his firing. Then Bobby Bowden hung up the whistle (admittedly this was announced well before, but hey, it fits), ending one of the great coaching careers of all time, in any sport. The only way things could get weirder is if Nick Saban or Mack Brown suddenly would decide that they'd rather spend a few extra hours at Disneyland rather than take the sideline tomorrow in Pasadena.

Speaking of that little game in Pasadena, that's why you're really here, right? Cool, then let's get down to it.

34. Citi BCS National Championship Game: Texas vs. Alabama

At first glance, this game appears to be clearly sided in favor of the Crimson Tide. Naturally, I've picked Texas. Perhaps this is why my bowl record currently stands at 14-19. But there are reasons behind the pick, even though I've come up with several after the pick was made (nothing like trying to justify a questionable decision after the fact!).

Reason one for me, and this is pretty much the sole reason I went with the Longhorns, is Colt McCoy. The guy is a winner. He's not lost a bowl game while quarterbacking Texas, and he's handled himself quite well in the annual Red River Shootout too. McCoy doesn't get the love that's handed out to Tim Tebow, but he's got Tebow-level leadership ability, competitiveness, passion, hard work, and versatility. He won't give you a forearm shiver on the way to the end zone, but he'll still use his legs to get there. And he's got Tebow-like character too, a confidence and integrity rooted in his faith in Christ. He's not one you'd expect to crumple under the pressure of the national championship microscope, or the Alabama defense for that matter.

The aforementioned Tide defense will be the strongest of the 4 units on the field Thursday, and they'll give McCoy and the Texas offense all they can handle. Texas won't, repeat WILL NOT, run the ball on Alabama, unless it comes via McCoy scrambles and the occasional unexpected designed QB run. The Longhorns will have to hand the ball off from time to time to keep Alabama honest, but any yards they gain will come, in one way or another, through Colt McCoy. I expect the game plan to feature lots of passes in the 5 to 10 yard range - slants, screens, quick outs, tight ends and backs in the flat - to counter the speed of the Crimson Tide. I also think we'll see Texas line up in the shotgun a majority of the time to give McCoy an extra split second to react to Alabama's pressure. This is the type of situation that suits Colt McCoy just fine - give him a little time and a few options and he'll pick you apart. And if he's forced to hold the ball for more than 2-3 seconds, he can make things happen with his legs. Colt McCoy will win or lose this game for Texas, the Alabama defense is too good to let anyone else do it.

Offensively, I don't think Alabama will have the success they did against Florida. They seemed to catch the Gators off-guard a bit, particularly in letting Greg McElroy off the leash a bit and allowing him to throw the ball downfield. Now that the cat is out of the bag, Texas will be ready for it. McElroy has come of age as a passer and game manager, and he can go out and win games with his arm if needed. That makes Alabama's offense dangerous and versatile. At one point this season they looked a bit like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who won the Super Bowl with great defense, a good running back, and a QB in Trent Dilfer who just needed to manage things and throw an occasional deep ball. Not so now - McElroy has gained precision and confidence, and has a fleet of great weapons to throw to.

How will Texas defend Alabama? Will Muschamp has had more than a month to figure it out, and you can bet he'll have a good game plan. I expect lots of pressure up the middle. Alabama's running game is almost entirely between the tackles, with bruising backs Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Texas knows this, and unless the Crimson Tide make a drastic change, the Longhorns won't have to worry much about sweeps and runs to the outside. That means they can focus most of their personnel to the heart of the offensive line, which will also help with their pass defense. Their best defense against Greg McElroy may be pressure, and as they send linebackers and safeties up the middle to plug potential holes for Ingram and Richardson, they'll also be able to bring heat right to McElroy's face. They also have Sergio Kindle dashing around the corner, so their blitz schemes can focus on the middle of the Alabama line as Kindle draws double teams and chips from tight ends and backs. If Texas can get in his kitchen, McElroy might hurry throws and make mistakes. If McElroy can handle it, he's got the playmakers to do damage in one-on-one matchups downfield. In the end I'll call it a push, but I like the Longhorns' chances at slowing down Alabama enough to give Colt McCoy a chance at outscoring the Tide.

Alabama would appear to have a special teams advantage too, with Leigh Tiffin's kicking leg and Javier Arenas' slick moves returning kicks. But Hunter Lawrence and Jordan Shipley aren't that far behind. Either team can do damage in the kicking game.

Reasoned out, it looks like a great game. Back and forth, hard hitting, strategic, full of big time players and big plays. It should be great theater, and in the end Colt McCoy cements his legacy as one of the great big game college quarterbacks of all time. Texas wins the game of the year and takes home another crystal football from Pasadena.

Texas 23, Alabama 20

Next week: the annual predictions review begins as we look at how far off my preseason jibber-jabber really was. Should be fun.