On the coaching weirdness: when have so many stories surrounding big name head coaches surfaced in so short a time? It began rather innocuously with Brian Kelly treating the entire city of Cincinnati as a rickety stepladder on his way to Notre Dame. Then came Urban Meyer's best Brett Favre impression and subsequent fallout (at least one recruit reports that he vows to be on the sideline in August; Meyer's sabbatical was deemed "indefinite" - targeting August appears fairly definite to me). Then the war of speculation waged by Mike Leach and Texas Tech after his firing. Then Bobby Bowden hung up the whistle (admittedly this was announced well before, but hey, it fits), ending one of the great coaching careers of all time, in any sport. The only way things could get weirder is if Nick Saban or Mack Brown suddenly would decide that they'd rather spend a few extra hours at Disneyland rather than take the sideline tomorrow in Pasadena.
Speaking of that little game in Pasadena, that's why you're really here, right? Cool, then let's get down to it.
34. Citi BCS National Championship Game: Texas vs. Alabama
At first glance, this game appears to be clearly sided in favor of the Crimson Tide. Naturally, I've picked Texas. Perhaps this is why my bowl record currently stands at 14-19. But there are reasons behind the pick, even though I've come up with several after the pick was made (nothing like trying to justify a questionable decision after the fact!).
Reason one for me, and this is pretty much the sole reason I went with the Longhorns, is Colt McCoy. The guy is a winner. He's not lost a bowl game while quarterbacking Texas, and he's handled himself quite well in the annual Red River Shootout too. McCoy doesn't get the love that's handed out to Tim Tebow, but he's got Tebow-level leadership ability, competitiveness, passion, hard work, and versatility. He won't give you a forearm shiver on the way to the end zone, but he'll still use his legs to get there. And he's got Tebow-like character too, a confidence and integrity rooted in his faith in Christ. He's not one you'd expect to crumple under the pressure of the national championship microscope, or the Alabama defense for that matter.
The aforementioned Tide defense will be the strongest of the 4 units on the field Thursday, and they'll give McCoy and the Texas offense all they can handle. Texas won't, repeat WILL NOT, run the ball on Alabama, unless it comes via McCoy scrambles and the occasional unexpected designed QB run. The Longhorns will have to hand the ball off from time to time to keep Alabama honest, but any yards they gain will come, in one way or another, through Colt McCoy. I expect the game plan to feature lots of passes in the 5 to 10 yard range - slants, screens, quick outs, tight ends and backs in the flat - to counter the speed of the Crimson Tide. I also think we'll see Texas line up in the shotgun a majority of the time to give McCoy an extra split second to react to Alabama's pressure. This is the type of situation that suits Colt McCoy just fine - give him a little time and a few options and he'll pick you apart. And if he's forced to hold the ball for more than 2-3 seconds, he can make things happen with his legs. Colt McCoy will win or lose this game for Texas, the Alabama defense is too good to let anyone else do it.
Offensively, I don't think Alabama will have the success they did against Florida. They seemed to catch the Gators off-guard a bit, particularly in letting Greg McElroy off the leash a bit and allowing him to throw the ball downfield. Now that the cat is out of the bag, Texas will be ready for it. McElroy has come of age as a passer and game manager, and he can go out and win games with his arm if needed. That makes Alabama's offense dangerous and versatile. At one point this season they looked a bit like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who won the Super Bowl with great defense, a good running back, and a QB in Trent Dilfer who just needed to manage things and throw an occasional deep ball. Not so now - McElroy has gained precision and confidence, and has a fleet of great weapons to throw to.
How will Texas defend Alabama? Will Muschamp has had more than a month to figure it out, and you can bet he'll have a good game plan. I expect lots of pressure up the middle. Alabama's running game is almost entirely between the tackles, with bruising backs Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. Texas knows this, and unless the Crimson Tide make a drastic change, the Longhorns won't have to worry much about sweeps and runs to the outside. That means they can focus most of their personnel to the heart of the offensive line, which will also help with their pass defense. Their best defense against Greg McElroy may be pressure, and as they send linebackers and safeties up the middle to plug potential holes for Ingram and Richardson, they'll also be able to bring heat right to McElroy's face. They also have Sergio Kindle dashing around the corner, so their blitz schemes can focus on the middle of the Alabama line as Kindle draws double teams and chips from tight ends and backs. If Texas can get in his kitchen, McElroy might hurry throws and make mistakes. If McElroy can handle it, he's got the playmakers to do damage in one-on-one matchups downfield. In the end I'll call it a push, but I like the Longhorns' chances at slowing down Alabama enough to give Colt McCoy a chance at outscoring the Tide.
Alabama would appear to have a special teams advantage too, with Leigh Tiffin's kicking leg and Javier Arenas' slick moves returning kicks. But Hunter Lawrence and Jordan Shipley aren't that far behind. Either team can do damage in the kicking game.
Reasoned out, it looks like a great game. Back and forth, hard hitting, strategic, full of big time players and big plays. It should be great theater, and in the end Colt McCoy cements his legacy as one of the great big game college quarterbacks of all time. Texas wins the game of the year and takes home another crystal football from Pasadena.
Texas 23, Alabama 20
Next week: the annual predictions review begins as we look at how far off my preseason jibber-jabber really was. Should be fun.
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