Week 14: End of the Line

Well, here we are. Championship Saturday. Everything that's happened this season has culminated in this - by Saturday evening we'll be down to 2 teams who'll play for all the marbles, and a few left reaching for an unmet goal. 


Speaking strictly as a fan, I'd LOVE to see either Oregon or Auburn fall, opening the door for TCU to glide into an unexpected championship game appearance (except by yours truly, who tabbed them as one of the two title opponents in the preaseason). How great would it be, before the great conference shuffle begins, to see a "BCS buster, an excluded, finally break the glass ceiling and play for it all. How much hype and argument would be generated between now and early January? How big an underdog story would it be?


I hope it happens. Unfortunately, I can't in good confidence predict that it will. Of the top two, I'd have to say that Auburn has the better chance of losing, but I've picked against them more times than I should have already. I'm tired of them proving me wrong. Oregon, meanwhile, has had a far less stressful road thus far. A minimal amount of comebacks, relatively few challenges, not much proving efficient at slowing them down. What has been effective is the approach of trying to extend the game through milking injuries and in general trying to freeze the Duck offense. Cal's success likely will become the blueprint Oregon State will follow. Time will tell how successful they'll be; my guess is that it won't be much. The Beavers have struggled mightily since James Rodgers went down.


If history tells us anything, there will be upsets this weekend. They may not be in the two games previously spoken of, they may be in one of the other major conference championship games. It's hard to pick where they might come - that's why they're called "upsets" - but we can hope that one will appear to take out one of the top two. 


1. Auburn vs. South Carolina (SEC Championship)
The Gamecocks pushed Auburn in Jordan-Hare earlier this year, so this is no coronation for the Tigers. Auburn is a much better, or at least more experienced, team since the first meeting, but South Carolina will be no slouch. Their fans will make their presence felt, and if Auburn has a sluggish start, as they're prone to do, the Georgia Dome crowd could shift dramatically in favor of the lovable, underdog Gamecocks. As for a prediction, it's hard to imagine this game going much differently than many of the Tigers' others this season - a gutsy, come from behind, Cam Newton led victory. Even a partisan crowd hasn't been able to break that formula.
Auburn 34, South Carolina 28


2. Oregon at Oregon State
Corvallis is a difficult place to play, as USC found out recently, but Oregon has shown that they can handle the environment of their Civil War foe. Two years ago the Ducks outscored the Beavers behind another explosive offense, negating Oregon State's Rose Bowl opportunity. This year's Duck offense is far more dangerous, and this Beaver team far less potent. Oregon State wills it to be close for a half, but Oregon pulls away again for a comfortable win.
Oregon 27, Oregon State 14


3. Oklahoma vs. Nebraska (Big 12 Championship)
The Big 12 will be a dinosaur a year from now, and Nebraska is the largest culprit behind the league's extinction. Much has been made about the alleged skewed officiating against the Cornhuskers, and some of the accusations might be valid, but one has to ask - is it more a product of Bo Pellini's hardnosed, aggressive style than any bias? Regardless, Nebraska has proven less than dangerous in several games this year, being shut down by Texas and Texas A&M. Those team's defenses aren't any better than Oklahoma's, so it's hard to imagine the Cornhusker's suddenly coming alive. Expect a similar result to last year's heartbreaker, Husker fans.
Oklahoma 13, Nebraska 12


4. Virginia Tech vs. Florida State (ACC Championship)
Quietly, Virginia Tech has won 10 in a row. If it weren't for their befuddling loss to James Madison, the Hokies could easily be sitting at #4. And if they hadn't blown a late lead against Boise as well, then...? Florida State has been pretty hot as well, making this an attractive matchup of what-might-have-beens. It's hard to argue with Virginia Tech's 8-0 conference record - dominance in a decidedly undominated league.
Virginia Tech 22, Florida State 17


5. Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) (MAC Championship)
Yep, I know nada about either team. Northern Illinois is ranked though, and I did note that they won 71-3 not too long ago. No matter who you play, it's hard to pick against that kind of explosiveness.
Northern Illinois 37, Miami (OH) 17


6. SMU vs. Central Florida (C-USA Championship)
June Jones has SMU on the verge of cresting the biggest mountaintop conceivable since their Death Penalty days: a conference title. The Ponies are the sentimental favorite, albeit not the numeric one.
SMU 38, Central Florida 28


7. Connecticut at South Florida
UConn is on the verge of winning the Big East crown on the back of nearly all home wins. The Huskies have just one road win, that one at Syracuse. The Orange may be improved, but they're still lowly. South Florida is a solid team, and UConn hasn't shown enough strength to be deserving of a conference championship. The Bulls put the Huskies in their rightful place.
South Florida 35, Connecticut 31


8. Rutgers at West Virginia
And in steps West Virginia. Rutgers is near terrible, and the Mountaineers shouldn't have any trouble putting the Scarlet Knights away.
West Virginia 31, Rutgers 10


9. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Last year this was one of the biggest games of the final Saturday. Not so much this year. It qualifies as a definite dud: neither team has come close to preseason expectations, as limited and conservative as even those might have been. Pitt, in particular, has been dismal, but though they've struggled, they're still a much better team than Cincy and should win this year's version of the River City Rivalry, and the gargantuan trophy that comes with it.
Pittsburgh 20, Cincinnati 17


10. USC at UCLA
What a surprise - another disappointing year for UCLA! RIck Neuhiesel may find himself on a short leash before too long.
USC 34, UCLA 20


11. Washington at Washington State
Wazzu is greatly improved, even winning a conference game this year, but the Huskies shouldn't lose the Apple Cup here. Jake Locker earns one more college game with a win here.
Washington 28, Washington State 17


12. Arizona State at Arizona
Arizona State is one of the many in need of a win to qualify for a bowl berth. They're not likely to get it, as Arizona is better than their record indicates, and the Wildcats draw the Sun Devils on their home turf.
Arizona 23, Arizona State 20


13. Illinois at Fresno State
Last year this game featured the wildest finish in all of college football, when a deflected last ditch pass carrommed to an offensive lineman, who trudged into the end zone, earning Fresno State a 2-pt conversion and a walk-off win. I doubt this one will match those fireworks, but the commonality will be a victory in favor of the road team. Illinois is a much better team this year than last.
Illinois 30, Fresno State 27


14. Nevada at Louisiana Tech
Will Nevada experience a letdown? Will it matter? A trip to Louisiana Tech is a significant undertaking, mileage wise, for WAC teams, but Colin Kaepernick has the senior experience to guide his team through this speedbump.
Nevada 34, Louisiana Tech 30


15. Utah State at Boise State
I'd hate to be Utah State right now. Boise State will not be happy, and they'll be looking to take out their frustration in a big way. The loss to Nevada was devastating, as difficult a loss as you'll find in college football, with everything that was riding on it and the way it unfolded. Back on the blue turf, the Broncos will slaughter Utah State.
Boise State 58, Utah State 7


Next week: no games but Army-Navy, so I'll either take a break before bowl picks (which, by the way, will be my final post before leaving the country), or take a detour from the current season for an unrelated post. We'll see.