Wow. It's difficult to keep up with everything going on in college sports right now, especially if you're in Australia. If it's not scandals or impending scandals, it's conference realignment or realignment speculation. I'm not sure about you, but my head is spinning.
But we need to stop the madness for a second and look beyond the chaos to a glaring underlying problem: the tremendous greed driving it all. It's in every nook and cranny, and it's reaching fever pitch. The whole system is about to topple, much like the greed-fueled American economy just before the Great Depression.
Taylor Branch, of the magazine Atlantic Monthly, wrote a must-read cover story entitled "The Shame of College Sports." It's enlightening, it's eye-opening, it's scary, and it's such must-read for a follower of college sports that I don't want you to read this blog this week. I want you to click here and spend a valuable 30 minutes looking behind the curtain.
As you go, here are the quick picks:
1) Oklahoma State 44, Texas A&M 41
2) Alabama 31, Arkansas 14
3) LSU 33, West Virginia 17
4) Oklahoma 45, Missouri 21
5) Florida State 27, Clemson 20
6) Ohio State 23, Colorado 13
7) Arizona State 24, USC 20
8) Oregon 34, Arizona 28
9) Miami (FL) 26, Kansas State 10
10) Notre Dame 31, Pittsburgh 27
11) Michigan 35, San Diego State 28
12) Georgia Tech 34, North Carolina 20
13) Virginia 20, Southern Miss 17
14) Cincinnati 38, N.C. State 27
15) Washington 28, California 20
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Week 3: I Have An Idea...
A look at this week's list of games reveals one of the ugly truths of early season college football: there are way too many games involving Division 1-AA teams. There are some juicy matchups out there, but they're like finding Rolex watches in a scrap heap. Most of what we see are top programs taking a week off, or suffering the embarrassment of being felled by a dull knife.
The reason this phenomenon is a problem is not just due to the lack of attractive football. Why do we have so many bowls? Because the free passes programs get stack up enough victories to qualify. Why do we have so few big time non-conference matchups? Because teams are baited by the promise of a full house and a free win.
My proposal, if anyone happens to be listening, is to bar the scheduling of 1-AA opponents. There's a reason we have two levels of Division 1 football, let's make the separation mean something. Clearing the schedule of these comical matchups would force teams to schedule more difficult non-conference opponents (meaning more Oklahoma-Florida State and less Coastal Carolina-Georgia), clear out some of the mediocrity surrounding the bowl season, and make September even more watchable.
As it is, apart from a few big games, there are slim pickings this week. We have some games that have no business being included in the Fifteen, but it's what the system lends itself to right now.
1. Penn State at Temple
The "at" is an operative term here: it's guaranteed that more Nittany Lion fans will be in the house than Temple backers. But even with the de facto home field advantage, as a Penn State fan this game frightens me. This isn't your father's Temple program. Al Golden brought respectability and now the Owls, after Golden's departure, are no pushover. They have talent beneath just the starting 22, a running back in Bernard Pierce who is worthy of playing at any BCS conference school, and the chip of being a little brother to Penn State on their shoulder. Believe it or not, it's been 70 years since Temple beat the Nittany Lions, which even outdates Joe Paterno's coaching tenure. Paterno has never lost to the Owls. You better believe that's bulletin board material in the Temple locker room. The problem for the Owls is that they get PSU as they're smarting by being smacked by Alabama, though like last year, the score didn't indicate how competitive the Lions were, especially in the first half. I was impressed with the improvements made, especially on the O-line, and have confidence that Silas Redd will eat up yards today. The Penn State defense will do enough to limit Pierce, force a crucial turnover or two, and the Lions will eke out a close one.
Penn State 27, Temple 17
2. Oklahoma at Florida State
The Seminoles are on their way back toward the top, but they're not there yet. Oklahoma will bring plenty of talent, and relatively green QB E. J. Manuel will feel it. Florida State falters in another big test. I don't think this one will be a blowout, but it will be a comfortable Oklahoma victory.
Oklahoma 34, Florida State 21
3. Ohio State at Miami (FL)
Not sure where to go with this one. We'll just say the matchup looked a ton better 6 months ago. Both teams took big offseason hits, and though Ohio State is worse in the short term, Miami will fall much further in the long run. I'll go with Miami having just enough to get one last big win before the floor drops out from under the program.
Miami (FL) 23, Ohio State 20
4. Tennessee at Florida
Don't look now, but the Vols may have a say in the SEC East race for the first time in years. The division is there for the taking with Georgia still down a few rungs, South Carolina looking vulnerable, and Florida still not where they once were. Tyler Bray has the Vol offense somewhere near potent for the first time in recent memory, and if this one wasn't in the Swamp I'd seriously consider picking Tennessee. But it is in the Swamp, and the Gators are about to become the favorite in the wide-open SEC East race.
Florida 34, Tennessee 24
5. Michigan State at Notre Dame
The road team always seems to have the upper hand in this series, and I see no reason to expect it to change this week. Notre Dame will be ok, but the Spartans aren't the team to sort their issues out with.
Michigan State 28, Notre Dame 24
6. Auburn at Clemson
This was one of the best early-season games last year, and very nearly derailed Auburn's dream season before it left the station. The Tigers beat the other Tigers in OT. Things look to go the other way around this time. The nation's longest losing streak ends today.
Clemson 35, Auburn 31
7. West Virginia at Maryland
Dear Maryland, please do not ever wear those uniforms again. You know the ones I mean. I might have picked you to win this game, but you have forced me to take the other direction.
West Virginia 38, Maryland 30
8. Utah at BYU
BYU may have the most difficult first 3 games of anyone, and they've fared quite well so far. At home against a Utah team now part of the Establishment, they'll be ready to roll.
BYU 24, Utah 17
9. Washington at Nebraska
Shouldn't be close.
Nebraska 30, Washington 13
10. Stanford at Arizona
I said a few weeks ago that Arizona was one of my surprise teams of the season. This is the week they get to prove it. Tucson is a difficult place to play and Mike Stoops is a defensive coach. The Wildcats struggled early against the powerful Oklahoma State attack last Thursday, and you'd think Andrew Luck would have his way, but Arizona buckled down as the game wore on. With a few extra days to prepare, the Wildcat D will be ready and the day's biggest upset will come in its final kickoff. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself.
Arizona 34, Stanford 31
11. Arizona State at Illinois
Not sold on the Sun Devils yet. Too much swagger for so little substance.
Illinois 27, Arizona State 24
12. Texas at UCLA
I have nothing interesting to say about this one.
Texas 30, UCLA 17
13. Pittsburgh at Iowa
Iowa State's win at Connecticut yesterday at least takes some of the embarrassment away from the Hawkeyes. They should bounce back and beat Pitt, another one of the nation's reeling programs, at home.
Iowa 20, Pittsburgh 13
14. Virginia at North Carolina
Virginia begins a quietly good ACC campaign in Chapel Hill today.
Virginia 23, North Carolina 17
15. Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Interesting upset possibility here. Remember that Tulsa finished in the top 25 last year and returned a heap of starters for this season. They may have enough offense to run with the Cowboys, but it's the defense that will be the deciding factor in whether or not possibility becomes reality. My guess is that they won't have enough - Brandon Weeden has Oklahoma State rolling right now. Tulsa hangs but gets overrun in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma State 55, Tulsa 38
The reason this phenomenon is a problem is not just due to the lack of attractive football. Why do we have so many bowls? Because the free passes programs get stack up enough victories to qualify. Why do we have so few big time non-conference matchups? Because teams are baited by the promise of a full house and a free win.
My proposal, if anyone happens to be listening, is to bar the scheduling of 1-AA opponents. There's a reason we have two levels of Division 1 football, let's make the separation mean something. Clearing the schedule of these comical matchups would force teams to schedule more difficult non-conference opponents (meaning more Oklahoma-Florida State and less Coastal Carolina-Georgia), clear out some of the mediocrity surrounding the bowl season, and make September even more watchable.
As it is, apart from a few big games, there are slim pickings this week. We have some games that have no business being included in the Fifteen, but it's what the system lends itself to right now.
1. Penn State at Temple
The "at" is an operative term here: it's guaranteed that more Nittany Lion fans will be in the house than Temple backers. But even with the de facto home field advantage, as a Penn State fan this game frightens me. This isn't your father's Temple program. Al Golden brought respectability and now the Owls, after Golden's departure, are no pushover. They have talent beneath just the starting 22, a running back in Bernard Pierce who is worthy of playing at any BCS conference school, and the chip of being a little brother to Penn State on their shoulder. Believe it or not, it's been 70 years since Temple beat the Nittany Lions, which even outdates Joe Paterno's coaching tenure. Paterno has never lost to the Owls. You better believe that's bulletin board material in the Temple locker room. The problem for the Owls is that they get PSU as they're smarting by being smacked by Alabama, though like last year, the score didn't indicate how competitive the Lions were, especially in the first half. I was impressed with the improvements made, especially on the O-line, and have confidence that Silas Redd will eat up yards today. The Penn State defense will do enough to limit Pierce, force a crucial turnover or two, and the Lions will eke out a close one.
Penn State 27, Temple 17
2. Oklahoma at Florida State
The Seminoles are on their way back toward the top, but they're not there yet. Oklahoma will bring plenty of talent, and relatively green QB E. J. Manuel will feel it. Florida State falters in another big test. I don't think this one will be a blowout, but it will be a comfortable Oklahoma victory.
Oklahoma 34, Florida State 21
3. Ohio State at Miami (FL)
Not sure where to go with this one. We'll just say the matchup looked a ton better 6 months ago. Both teams took big offseason hits, and though Ohio State is worse in the short term, Miami will fall much further in the long run. I'll go with Miami having just enough to get one last big win before the floor drops out from under the program.
Miami (FL) 23, Ohio State 20
4. Tennessee at Florida
Don't look now, but the Vols may have a say in the SEC East race for the first time in years. The division is there for the taking with Georgia still down a few rungs, South Carolina looking vulnerable, and Florida still not where they once were. Tyler Bray has the Vol offense somewhere near potent for the first time in recent memory, and if this one wasn't in the Swamp I'd seriously consider picking Tennessee. But it is in the Swamp, and the Gators are about to become the favorite in the wide-open SEC East race.
Florida 34, Tennessee 24
5. Michigan State at Notre Dame
The road team always seems to have the upper hand in this series, and I see no reason to expect it to change this week. Notre Dame will be ok, but the Spartans aren't the team to sort their issues out with.
Michigan State 28, Notre Dame 24
6. Auburn at Clemson
This was one of the best early-season games last year, and very nearly derailed Auburn's dream season before it left the station. The Tigers beat the other Tigers in OT. Things look to go the other way around this time. The nation's longest losing streak ends today.
Clemson 35, Auburn 31
7. West Virginia at Maryland
Dear Maryland, please do not ever wear those uniforms again. You know the ones I mean. I might have picked you to win this game, but you have forced me to take the other direction.
West Virginia 38, Maryland 30
8. Utah at BYU
BYU may have the most difficult first 3 games of anyone, and they've fared quite well so far. At home against a Utah team now part of the Establishment, they'll be ready to roll.
BYU 24, Utah 17
9. Washington at Nebraska
Shouldn't be close.
Nebraska 30, Washington 13
10. Stanford at Arizona
I said a few weeks ago that Arizona was one of my surprise teams of the season. This is the week they get to prove it. Tucson is a difficult place to play and Mike Stoops is a defensive coach. The Wildcats struggled early against the powerful Oklahoma State attack last Thursday, and you'd think Andrew Luck would have his way, but Arizona buckled down as the game wore on. With a few extra days to prepare, the Wildcat D will be ready and the day's biggest upset will come in its final kickoff. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself.
Arizona 34, Stanford 31
11. Arizona State at Illinois
Not sold on the Sun Devils yet. Too much swagger for so little substance.
Illinois 27, Arizona State 24
12. Texas at UCLA
I have nothing interesting to say about this one.
Texas 30, UCLA 17
13. Pittsburgh at Iowa
Iowa State's win at Connecticut yesterday at least takes some of the embarrassment away from the Hawkeyes. They should bounce back and beat Pitt, another one of the nation's reeling programs, at home.
Iowa 20, Pittsburgh 13
14. Virginia at North Carolina
Virginia begins a quietly good ACC campaign in Chapel Hill today.
Virginia 23, North Carolina 17
15. Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Interesting upset possibility here. Remember that Tulsa finished in the top 25 last year and returned a heap of starters for this season. They may have enough offense to run with the Cowboys, but it's the defense that will be the deciding factor in whether or not possibility becomes reality. My guess is that they won't have enough - Brandon Weeden has Oklahoma State rolling right now. Tulsa hangs but gets overrun in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma State 55, Tulsa 38
Sunday, September 11, 2011
I Remember Where I Was
The day dawned clear and bright, one of the most beautiful of the year. Fall was sending hints of its impending presence and the humidity marking August was nowhere to be found. I woke early, joining a small group of friends for prayer in the Student Union. Afterward my future wife and I sat quietly in a study lounge reading the Bible. Such a peaceful start to what would be anything but a peaceful day.
As I strolled the hall toward my dorm room, I heard sounds of a newscast leaking from the doorway. This is odd, I thought, Mike is awake? Watching the news? My roommate was a notorious heavy sleeper, and I knew that he would be sleeping until just after the very moment he needed to leave to make class on time. And never did I experience him watching the morning news.
I entered the room to find it empty. Looking quickly to the TV, I saw an image of the iconic World Trade Center, smoke billowing from the upper floors of both towers. It was 9:15. After a few moments of stunned silence, Mike walked back in.
"What happened?" I asked with incredulity. He responded by explaining that he'd been woken up by a phone call from someone in his morning class, telling him to turn on the TV. He'd had it on for just a few minutes before I walked in and knew little more than I did. Two planes had hit the World Trade Center on a clear blue day. The newscasters were still speculative - was it an accident? What kind of planes were they? What is going on? Terrorism didn't enter my mind immediately; confusion did. I suppose the innocence of the days before 9/11 had yet to be broken. All I could wonder was how such a catastrophic accident could happen.
The innocence broke when one of the newspeople mentioned terrorism. It was still speculation at that point, nothing was confirmed and rumors were swirling. Over and over the video of the second plane striking the tower replayed, and stunned anchors sought to analyze the data - size of plane, trajectory, angle of impact. I still wouldn't believe that it wasn't accidental. We didn't know terrorism; such an act was unthinkable. After a few minutes of gazing open-mouthed at the TV screen and frantic conversation with Mike, I decided to rush off to class. Something very strange had happened, but no one really knew what. It never entered my mind that anything worse would follow.
My class was volleyball. I was a senior, what do you expect? Shortly before the 11 o'clock end of class, someone walked in to the gym and whispered something in the instructor's ear. He quickly made an announcement to the class that we were done; some things were more important than volleyball. I remember those words distinctly, along with the quiver in his voice. It now seems such an absurd statement, but what else was he to say? The woman who had broken the news to him then broke it to the class: in an act of terrorism three passenger planes had been flown into American targets - the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The news of the Pentagon was a surprise, but the news that would follow would change everything. In a somber tone, she announced that both towers of the World Trade Center had collapsed. This news hit me like none other. Audible gasps filled the room. My mind swirled, not knowing how to process this information. One of my classmates fell to the floor, overtaken by shock.
I didn't know what to do. What could I do? I raced across to the nearest common area, where I found a large crowd gathered around a small TV. Replays of the impossible looped as people shook their heads in horror and shock. Every few seconds, someone who had yet to hear the news rounded the corner and froze, mumbling questions to complete strangers. We were all in this together.
For some reason I went to my next class. I suppose I had no idea what to do. I still have no idea why Penn State didn't cancel all classes for the day. So I went, my mind still swirling. All I did was share this awful news with classmates. Then I went back home, huddling around the TV with friends. It was all we could do. We just needed to be together, and to watch. We couldn't take our eyes away.
The images were tragic. I don't know how many times we commented that it was like watching a movie. If it wasn't seen it wouldn't be believed. There were no commercials and very little censorship. If it was caught on film, we all saw it. New images of the planes making their horrifying final descent into the buildings. People jumping to their deaths to avoid the horrors inside. Bewildered, bloody, ash-covered New Yorkers filing away en masse from lower Manhattan. The awful moments of the towers buckling and falling away, disappearing from existence. With each new image, we called the others to look with us. As awful as the images were, we couldn't turn away. We all knew we'd never forget it.
The days following were a blur. Prayer and memorial services, cancelled events, discernment over how we could possibly respond. I especially remember the eeriness of looking into a cloudless blue sky and seeing no trace of a jet trail. I was so used to seeing airplanes overhead that the full ground stop was arresting, a reminder that the world had changed.
I'll never forget where I was on September 11, 2001. And I hope I'll never forget the thousand acts of bravery, courage, heroism, community, love, resolve, strength, and compassion that accompanied four heinous acts of cowardice and murder. The memory of those lost and those who sacrificed all deserves recognition.
That's where I was. Where were you?
As I strolled the hall toward my dorm room, I heard sounds of a newscast leaking from the doorway. This is odd, I thought, Mike is awake? Watching the news? My roommate was a notorious heavy sleeper, and I knew that he would be sleeping until just after the very moment he needed to leave to make class on time. And never did I experience him watching the morning news.
I entered the room to find it empty. Looking quickly to the TV, I saw an image of the iconic World Trade Center, smoke billowing from the upper floors of both towers. It was 9:15. After a few moments of stunned silence, Mike walked back in.
"What happened?" I asked with incredulity. He responded by explaining that he'd been woken up by a phone call from someone in his morning class, telling him to turn on the TV. He'd had it on for just a few minutes before I walked in and knew little more than I did. Two planes had hit the World Trade Center on a clear blue day. The newscasters were still speculative - was it an accident? What kind of planes were they? What is going on? Terrorism didn't enter my mind immediately; confusion did. I suppose the innocence of the days before 9/11 had yet to be broken. All I could wonder was how such a catastrophic accident could happen.
The innocence broke when one of the newspeople mentioned terrorism. It was still speculation at that point, nothing was confirmed and rumors were swirling. Over and over the video of the second plane striking the tower replayed, and stunned anchors sought to analyze the data - size of plane, trajectory, angle of impact. I still wouldn't believe that it wasn't accidental. We didn't know terrorism; such an act was unthinkable. After a few minutes of gazing open-mouthed at the TV screen and frantic conversation with Mike, I decided to rush off to class. Something very strange had happened, but no one really knew what. It never entered my mind that anything worse would follow.
My class was volleyball. I was a senior, what do you expect? Shortly before the 11 o'clock end of class, someone walked in to the gym and whispered something in the instructor's ear. He quickly made an announcement to the class that we were done; some things were more important than volleyball. I remember those words distinctly, along with the quiver in his voice. It now seems such an absurd statement, but what else was he to say? The woman who had broken the news to him then broke it to the class: in an act of terrorism three passenger planes had been flown into American targets - the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The news of the Pentagon was a surprise, but the news that would follow would change everything. In a somber tone, she announced that both towers of the World Trade Center had collapsed. This news hit me like none other. Audible gasps filled the room. My mind swirled, not knowing how to process this information. One of my classmates fell to the floor, overtaken by shock.
I didn't know what to do. What could I do? I raced across to the nearest common area, where I found a large crowd gathered around a small TV. Replays of the impossible looped as people shook their heads in horror and shock. Every few seconds, someone who had yet to hear the news rounded the corner and froze, mumbling questions to complete strangers. We were all in this together.
For some reason I went to my next class. I suppose I had no idea what to do. I still have no idea why Penn State didn't cancel all classes for the day. So I went, my mind still swirling. All I did was share this awful news with classmates. Then I went back home, huddling around the TV with friends. It was all we could do. We just needed to be together, and to watch. We couldn't take our eyes away.
The images were tragic. I don't know how many times we commented that it was like watching a movie. If it wasn't seen it wouldn't be believed. There were no commercials and very little censorship. If it was caught on film, we all saw it. New images of the planes making their horrifying final descent into the buildings. People jumping to their deaths to avoid the horrors inside. Bewildered, bloody, ash-covered New Yorkers filing away en masse from lower Manhattan. The awful moments of the towers buckling and falling away, disappearing from existence. With each new image, we called the others to look with us. As awful as the images were, we couldn't turn away. We all knew we'd never forget it.
The days following were a blur. Prayer and memorial services, cancelled events, discernment over how we could possibly respond. I especially remember the eeriness of looking into a cloudless blue sky and seeing no trace of a jet trail. I was so used to seeing airplanes overhead that the full ground stop was arresting, a reminder that the world had changed.
I'll never forget where I was on September 11, 2001. And I hope I'll never forget the thousand acts of bravery, courage, heroism, community, love, resolve, strength, and compassion that accompanied four heinous acts of cowardice and murder. The memory of those lost and those who sacrificed all deserves recognition.
That's where I was. Where were you?
Thursday, September 8, 2011
What Did We Learn Last Week?
The short answer to that question is: absolutely nothing. One game does not a season make, and we have a loooong way to go in this dance party. Overreaction is at an all-time high after week one, and we shouldn't take anything being said about any team's seriously. Wait for the end of the month before you make a fair assessment. That's a bit of good news for Oregon fans and a downer for those of LSU. It's also one of the main reasons I think giving the polls any credence at this point is ludicrous. You won't find it here. The first week you should possibly release polls is week 3, and those positions should be loosely held at best.
So while we basically learned nothing, let's make a few observations anyway:
1. Oregon will be fine.
The Ducks have been in this position before (losing an opener to Boise State a few years ago), and managed to have a great year. They may not be able to scramble back to the top of the heap and be invited to the title game (though it would be nice for my sake if they did), but they're not finished in the top 5. Chip Kelly will rally the troops, and the Pac-12 had better watch out.
2. LSU is better than I thought.
Let's face it - I'm not the biggest Les Miles fan. Interview reveal him to be a few planks short of a full bridge, and his coaching decisions are often questionable at best. I'm still not behind either Jarrett Lee or Jordan Jefferson, but the Tigers are chockers (Aussie term) with talent. Even Miles might not be able to botch this up. Crap...here I go overreacting. Calm down. Miles will manage to eat some grass that's got a bit too much fertilizer on it and stuff up (another Aussie term) another endgame situation. LSU will not go unbeaten. But they're very good.
3. Rise of the FCS
Richmond knocking off Duke isn't all that surprising, though it's a blow to a Duke program that had been on the way up. But the Spiders weren't the only little guys to spring a major upset last week. Lowly Sacramento State, a middle of the pack Big Sky program, took out notorious slow starter Oregon State. The Beavers lost Jaquizz Rodgers and they always seem to ease into the season, but that was ridiculous. They were down 21-6 at one point and needed a big fourth quarter just to force OT. Yeesh. In addition to those two, there were quite a few near misses: Northern Iowa (at Iowa State), Eastern Washington (at Washington State), Eastern Kentucky (at Kansas State), and even tiny Stony Brook (at UTEP) almost turned the trick. Are there any shockers to come this week? Keep your eye on Northern Colorado against Colorado State, Wofford at Clemson, and Stony Brook with another shot at Buffalo.
4. The Lane Kiffin era has a slightly different tone than the Pete Carroll era.
USC 19, Minnesota 17. The Trojans have clearly struck fear into the hearts of the college football world with this thrashing of the Big Ten's worst team. Safe to say that USC's fall from the peak of the college football world has been abrupt (and beautiful). Kiffin is certainly not the only one to blame, but he's not the man to bring the Trojans back. Staring another mediocre season in the face, will USC brass fire him this year or tighten up the leash for one more first?
Week 2 Quick Picks
Joe Paterno (I think) is famous for saying that you learn most about your football team between weeks 1 and 2, and that your biggest improvement should come in that stretch. We'll see who that's true of this weekend. Personally I hope Paterno coaches the Lions up and they improve enough to take down mighty Alabama. Here are my quick picks:
1. Alabama 20, Penn State 13. Bama still breaking in a new QB, plus the home game gives Lions hope, but Tide defense is too much.
2. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 20. Irish bounce back, Wolverines not back yet.
3. Oklahoma State 48, Arizona 31. Shootout in Stillwater, but Pokes have too much firepower for Wildcats to keep up with.
4. South Carolina 21, Georgia 14. Don't read into Carolina's performance too much, it's early. Let the rumor mill surrounding the Mark Richt tenure begin again...
5. Missouri 30, Arizona State 24. Missouri could be one of the more underrated teams heading into the season, Arizona State one of the more overrated.
6. Auburn 31, Mississippi State 28. Still not buying Mississippi State yet, and Utah State is better than most think. Auburn's win last week isn't as ugly as you think it was.
7. Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 26. Vols on the rise, could surprise this year in SEC East.
8. Texas 20, BYU 17. BYU can't win 2 in a row on the road against BCS-conference schools.
9. Wisconsin 38, Oregon State 17. Early kick in Madison, coupled with disastrous beginning for Beavers spells doom.
10. TCU 31, Air Force 21. Horned Frogs bounce back. But what happened to the D?
11. Colorado 24, California 23. Buffs get first Pac-12 win in first try. Will it be the only one of the year?
12. North Carolina 34, Rutgers 21. Even the scandal surrounding the Tar Heel program can't keep them from losing to Rutgers.
13. Nebraska 37, Fresno State 17. The "anyone, anywhere, anytime" mantra has worn quite thin for Fresno.
14. N.C. State 30, Wake Forest 27. Matchup of ACC also-rans is a true toss-up.
15. USC 27, Utah 20. Trojans may not be fearsome anymore, but they won't let the new guys in that easy.
And one final note:
You probably have no idea, but this is quite the power-packed weekend in the world (literally) of football. In the US, it's the long-awaited return of the NFL alongside the heating up of college football, but on this side of the Pacific, where the term 'football' is applied to a far broader range of games, we've got quite a slate as well. The Australian Rules Football finals begin their four-week march to a championship; as does Australia's National Rugby League. And a mongrel punt (Aussie term) across the Tasman Sea, in New Zealand, the Rugby World Cup gets underway. It's safe to say that I'll watch the widest variety of football of my life over the next 3 days.
So while we basically learned nothing, let's make a few observations anyway:
1. Oregon will be fine.
The Ducks have been in this position before (losing an opener to Boise State a few years ago), and managed to have a great year. They may not be able to scramble back to the top of the heap and be invited to the title game (though it would be nice for my sake if they did), but they're not finished in the top 5. Chip Kelly will rally the troops, and the Pac-12 had better watch out.
2. LSU is better than I thought.
Let's face it - I'm not the biggest Les Miles fan. Interview reveal him to be a few planks short of a full bridge, and his coaching decisions are often questionable at best. I'm still not behind either Jarrett Lee or Jordan Jefferson, but the Tigers are chockers (Aussie term) with talent. Even Miles might not be able to botch this up. Crap...here I go overreacting. Calm down. Miles will manage to eat some grass that's got a bit too much fertilizer on it and stuff up (another Aussie term) another endgame situation. LSU will not go unbeaten. But they're very good.
3. Rise of the FCS
Richmond knocking off Duke isn't all that surprising, though it's a blow to a Duke program that had been on the way up. But the Spiders weren't the only little guys to spring a major upset last week. Lowly Sacramento State, a middle of the pack Big Sky program, took out notorious slow starter Oregon State. The Beavers lost Jaquizz Rodgers and they always seem to ease into the season, but that was ridiculous. They were down 21-6 at one point and needed a big fourth quarter just to force OT. Yeesh. In addition to those two, there were quite a few near misses: Northern Iowa (at Iowa State), Eastern Washington (at Washington State), Eastern Kentucky (at Kansas State), and even tiny Stony Brook (at UTEP) almost turned the trick. Are there any shockers to come this week? Keep your eye on Northern Colorado against Colorado State, Wofford at Clemson, and Stony Brook with another shot at Buffalo.
4. The Lane Kiffin era has a slightly different tone than the Pete Carroll era.
USC 19, Minnesota 17. The Trojans have clearly struck fear into the hearts of the college football world with this thrashing of the Big Ten's worst team. Safe to say that USC's fall from the peak of the college football world has been abrupt (and beautiful). Kiffin is certainly not the only one to blame, but he's not the man to bring the Trojans back. Staring another mediocre season in the face, will USC brass fire him this year or tighten up the leash for one more first?
Week 2 Quick Picks
Joe Paterno (I think) is famous for saying that you learn most about your football team between weeks 1 and 2, and that your biggest improvement should come in that stretch. We'll see who that's true of this weekend. Personally I hope Paterno coaches the Lions up and they improve enough to take down mighty Alabama. Here are my quick picks:
1. Alabama 20, Penn State 13. Bama still breaking in a new QB, plus the home game gives Lions hope, but Tide defense is too much.
2. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 20. Irish bounce back, Wolverines not back yet.
3. Oklahoma State 48, Arizona 31. Shootout in Stillwater, but Pokes have too much firepower for Wildcats to keep up with.
4. South Carolina 21, Georgia 14. Don't read into Carolina's performance too much, it's early. Let the rumor mill surrounding the Mark Richt tenure begin again...
5. Missouri 30, Arizona State 24. Missouri could be one of the more underrated teams heading into the season, Arizona State one of the more overrated.
6. Auburn 31, Mississippi State 28. Still not buying Mississippi State yet, and Utah State is better than most think. Auburn's win last week isn't as ugly as you think it was.
7. Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 26. Vols on the rise, could surprise this year in SEC East.
8. Texas 20, BYU 17. BYU can't win 2 in a row on the road against BCS-conference schools.
9. Wisconsin 38, Oregon State 17. Early kick in Madison, coupled with disastrous beginning for Beavers spells doom.
10. TCU 31, Air Force 21. Horned Frogs bounce back. But what happened to the D?
11. Colorado 24, California 23. Buffs get first Pac-12 win in first try. Will it be the only one of the year?
12. North Carolina 34, Rutgers 21. Even the scandal surrounding the Tar Heel program can't keep them from losing to Rutgers.
13. Nebraska 37, Fresno State 17. The "anyone, anywhere, anytime" mantra has worn quite thin for Fresno.
14. N.C. State 30, Wake Forest 27. Matchup of ACC also-rans is a true toss-up.
15. USC 27, Utah 20. Trojans may not be fearsome anymore, but they won't let the new guys in that easy.
And one final note:
You probably have no idea, but this is quite the power-packed weekend in the world (literally) of football. In the US, it's the long-awaited return of the NFL alongside the heating up of college football, but on this side of the Pacific, where the term 'football' is applied to a far broader range of games, we've got quite a slate as well. The Australian Rules Football finals begin their four-week march to a championship; as does Australia's National Rugby League. And a mongrel punt (Aussie term) across the Tasman Sea, in New Zealand, the Rugby World Cup gets underway. It's safe to say that I'll watch the widest variety of football of my life over the next 3 days.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Fifteen Fearless Forecasts for the 2011 Season
We're on the verge of springtime in Australia, which in this upside-down world means that college football season is upon us. It also means that I'm trying to stay awake until College Gameday begins at midnight, and my Nittany Lions kick off at 2am. Writing this might provide an extra 2 hours of energy to help me make it through.
I just read my last post, a bowl season preview from December, in which I mentioned that there was a good chance I'd not be writing this year, being several thousand miles and a dozen time zones away. Well, call me a glutton for punishment, or mildly obsessive, but I couldn't stay away. But before you follow along this season you should know a few things:
1) This will take a different form than what had been usual. I'll still be picking the 15 best games of the week and hoping to crack the elusive .700 success line, but my posts will likely be less frequent and less tied to a preview of those 15 games. Let's face it, even in the digital age it's hard to follow an American sport that's considered very obscure at best here in Australia. I'll do my best, post random thoughts either related to upcoming games or those previous, or completely unrelated altogether. I'll try to talk some Australian rules and rugby too. And cricket if you're lucky. Follow me on twitter to keep up with the latest.
2) I know lots of crazy things have happened in the off-season, but I don't know jack about many details. American sports news is hard to come by unless you search it out, and I've chosen not to search it out. For all I know, Jim Tressel could have hung up the sweater vest by now. Wouldn't that be crazy! As a result, the following season predictions, as well as my weekly picks, could become utterly hilarious. But I'm convinced I have just as much chance at accuracy as anyone - it's the nature of the predictive game. So read on, and try not to laugh too hard.
With all that out of the way, it's on to the season preview.
1. Scandals will only continue, and even get worse
Yes, I do know about Jim Tressel. I'm not that out of the loop. And I know about Miami, and a few other schools too. It's an alarming trend sweeping college football - scandals involving shady recruiting, overzealous boosters, some frankly very disgusting perks, academic impropriety, the whole nine yards. But it's not a surprising one. The most shocking thing is that not more people have gotten caught. Show me a completely clean program and I'll show you an America with no national debt - it ain't gonna happen.
Sadly, as the NCAA continues to dig, and the universities themselves are forced to open their eyes to what's often sitting right in front of them, the scandals are only going to mount. And no amount of reform in college athletics will prevent them from happening. You can learn from the political history of any nation in the world that legislation does not produce righteousness. Utopia hasn't been attained yet because it's humanly impossible. So college sports will never be clean. Reform might take some edge off, but it won't deal with the root cause: corruption and greed. No matter how hard one might try (and we all know that with some of the asinine rules they've come up with that the NCAA has tried hard), you can't eliminate greed by making rules. In fact, you'll probably make it worse.
I hate to open the season of my favorite sport with such a downer, but it's reality. There is hope though, I think, but it's not the sort of hope many want to seek. To me, if you can't curtail corruption and greed by legislating behavior, you have to address it at the place it starts - the human heart. And my faith and life experience tells me that the only way that is changed is by spiritual renewal through Jesus Christ. So I envision two possible outcomes in the scandalous mess of college sports: either this spiritual renewal occurs at a radical, nationwide level; or the transgressions continue to mount to the point that the viewing public is so repulsed by it that they stop tuning in. While I hope and pray for the former, all signs right now point to the latter. College athletics has become such big business and such a part of the public eye that corruption is bound to overtake it. The 24-hour news cycle feeds it, the zeal of the fan bases feed it, the cash grab of the universities feed it. Of course impressionable college students would become entitled - they've been watched and idolized since 9th grade, and they're paraded into the spotlight without given much in return from their schools. Of course coaches would hide things - millions of dollars for their universities and their own vocational security rests on how their teams perform. Of course boosters would line up to throw wads of cash and perks at athletes - anything to feed the ravenous, unquenchable desire to win. It's a never ending cycle, and it will only cause college sports to collapse in on itself. Without radical transformation by Jesus, that is.
Whew. How do I transition from that soapbox moment? Guess I just have to move on.
2. As Unpredictable as Ever
Part of the fallout of all the scandal surrounding the sport right now will be increased parity. Instead of the rich getting richer, they're getting prosecuted. And the little guys have only to gain. Expect teams to look vastly different than your preview magazine says they will, and expect some shocking results. College football has always been a minefield of upsets and wild games, and this season will only be more so. The lack of a truly dominant team will only add to it as well. Remember the craziness of 2007? Don't be surprised if this season surpasses it.
3. Conference transitions have mixed results
It could have been worse. And it will get worse soon. But for now, we have a few small changes to the conference lineups, and don't expect newcomers like Nebraska, Colorado, Boise State, and Utah to have it easy. Nebraska is talented enough to march through the Big Ten, but they'll lose 2 games because their road will be unfamiliar and hostile. They haven't yet learned the tricks of how their new rivals work - what systems to expect, what formations to anticipate, what little things each program does. But the newcomers won't fall to the bottom of the pack either. Boise State will win the Mountain West, Nebraska will win their division, Utah will threaten to, and Colorado - well, let's not mention Colorado.
4. Big Parity in the Big Ten
Nebraska won't be the only contender to lose 2 conference games in the Big Ten this year. Don't be surprised if everyone has at least 2 losses by the end of November. Ohio State is fading, Penn State has QB questions, Wisconsin is as bruising as ever but without experience under center, Michigan State has a history of failed expectations, Nebraska has a brutal defense but a one-dimensional offense and the unfamiliarity issue, Iowa is in its usual underdog position but there are too many contenders to contend with, and no other teams appear to have the chops to run with those six. Just the fact that I can mention six potential conference winners without batting an eyelash at how realistic it is should tell you something. And Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue all could be above-average. The Big Ten will be fun to watch this year.
5.The SEC is too deep for its own good
Be wary of crowning the SEC champion an automatic national champion this year. Yes, it's been five straight; and yes, the SEC is head and shoulders above the rest. But this is the year it might be too good. No team looks like a runaway favorite, and as many as 8 teams, by some accounts, have a shot at the league title. Nearly a decade of stockpiling great coaches and top 20 recruiting classes will catch up to the SEC this year. For the first time in six years, the national championship game won't feature an SEC representative. Parity, not the ascension of other leagues to their lofty mantle, will do the conference in.
6. Get off of Mississippi State's bandwagon
Mississippi State is one of the aforementioned 8 teams purportedly to have a shot at the SEC crown. Don't buy it. Sure, Dan Mullen is back and the Bulldogs have some pieces returning, but this is the SEC West we're talking about - the deepest division in the land. Recruits have started coming to Starkville, but not enough to keep up with the big dogs. Yet. You can't expect them to compete with the likes of Alabama and LSU, who rake in top 5 recruiting classes every year. The Bulldogs will be this year's biggest letdown.
7. And get on South Florida's
South Florida, you say? Why not? The Big East is the french poodle at the dog show, and South Florida has been consistently solid for years. Skip Holtz can coach, B.J. Daniels is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, and the Bulls have shoved around Florida State and Miami enough to create a spot at Florida's big boy table. If the Bulls knock of Notre Dame in South Bend today, the schedule sets up quite nicely - all the remaining games they'd be favored to lose will be played in Tampa, all in November or December. When the Bulls are in the top 10 by mid-November, remember where you read it first.
8. Introduce yourself to...teams
In addition to South Florida, expect surprising seasons from these 5:
1) Arizona- Nick Foles is the most experienced QB in the Pac 12 not named Luck, and the South division is wide open.
2) Houston- Case Keenum is back, and that's enough to roll through C-USA
3) Kansas State- The Big 12 is deep, but K-State can hang. Bill Snyder carried the Wildcats to prominence before, and he's got them on their way again.
4) Louisville- Charlie Strong had a great debut year for the Cardinals; expect a better sophomore campaign.
5) Virginia- Mike London can coach with anyone, and the Cavaliers will be a thorn in more than one team's side this year.
9. Introduce yourself to...players
1) Michael Dyer, RB, Auburn- No longer will he be famous for just that crazy run near the end of last year's title game.
2) Silas Redd, RB, Penn State- freshman year had fans buzzing, and he leaped senior (and former buzz-generator himself) Stephon Green on the depth chart. Pinballer who's tough to tackle.
3) Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville- Highly touted true freshman will take the reins of the Cardinal offense by mid-season.
4) Jadevon Clowney, DE, South Carolina- Top recruit in the nation last year will make immediate mark.
5) David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech- a Hokie insider (read: friend who went there) tells me that Beamer has talked Wilson up more than any RB he's coached.
10. Same old Virginia Tech...or is it?
Speaking of the Hokies. For years it's been the same story for Virginia Tech: loaded defense, athletic but erratic QB, a bit of BeamerBall, and a 10 or 11 win plateau. One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, so we should not at all be surprised by Virginia Tech's inability to get over the hump. What's different this year? Well, one minor detail: the play-caller. Will that one change be enough? I don't think it will take them all the way, but it's a step in the right direction. If you take a look at the Hokies' schedule, this year is the year they ought to go undefeated. Their six road games? East Carolina, Marshall, Wake, Duke, GT, Virginia. The Hokies will break that 11-win ceiling, win the ACC again, and come just shy of a national title game berth.
11. The Scoreboard might break in Stillwater
Oklahoma State had a prolific offense last year, and it only stands to improve. Brandon Weeden is back with a year of experience under his belt, Justin Blackmon might be the best player in college football, and 8 other offensive starters return. The defense, however, will be what holds the Cowboys back from an elusive national championship. But they're close.
12. The Penn State forecast
I've made just 2 references to the Nittany Lions so far, so you have to humor me with some homer-ism. Most people think Penn State will settle into their typical spot in the top half of the Big Ten, falling just shy of a conference title. Maybe. Apart from the looming QB question mark, this team is more than capable of winning the Big Ten. Silas Redd and Stephon Green can both churn out yards, Derek Moye leads a deep fleet of receivers, and the defense is restocked and led by underrated coordinator Tom Bradley. Both Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin had significant experience last year, and whoever ends up with the permanent starting role should do just fine. And don't forget that with Ohio State's issues, the division race is wide open. Plus, the schedule does the Lions a favor. After an early season battle with Alabama, the Lions settle into a fairly open road, followed at the end of the season with this brutal stretch: vs. Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin. With a confidence-building run to that point, don't be surprised if the Nittany Lions win 2 of those 3 and take the Leaders division. My pick: 10-2, Leaders division winner, but a loss in the second matchup with Nebraska in the Big Ten title game.
13. The Bowls
New Orleans: Florida International over Marshall
Humanitarian: Fresno State over Temple
New Mexico: Colorado State over Utah State
Beef O'Brady's: Cincinnati over Central Florida
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Nevada
Maaco Las Vegas: TCU over Oregon State
Hawaii: Houston over Hawaii
Military: Boston College over Navy
Independence: Air Force over North Carolina
Little Caesars: Michigan over Ohio
Belk: South Florida over Clemson
Holiday: Arizona over Missouri
Champs Sports: Notre Dame over Georgia Tech
Alamo: Stanford over Texas
Pinstripe: Maryland over Louisville
Armed Forces: Southern Miss over BYU
Music City: Tennessee over Virginia
Insight: Michigan State over Kansas State
Meineke Car Care: Illinois over Texas Tech
Sun: Utah over Miami (FL)
Liberty: Mississippi State over Tulsa
Chick-fil-A: Arkansas over Florida State
Outback: Florida over Ohio State
Gator: LSU over Iowa
Capital One: Penn State over Georgia
TicketCity: Northwestern over SMU
BBVA Compass: Purdue over Pittsburgh
GoDaddy.com: Northern Illinois
Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona State over Army
Cotton: Texas A&M over Auburn
Rose: Alabama over Nebraska
Sugar: Boise State over South Carolina
Orange: Virginia Tech over West Virginia
Fiesta: Oklahoma State over Wisconsin
14. Your National Champion Is...Oregon!
Yes, the Ducks will return to the national championship game, but this time they get it done. In case you haven't pieced it together yet, Oklahoma is the missing piece, the Ducks' opponent in New Orleans. And why Oregon? Well, for one, they're loaded. The blur offense will be swooshing up and down the field behind Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, and the Duck defense is always underrated. The road won't be easy, but they'll nip LSU because they'll frustrate Jarrett Lee, and they'll get by Stanford because Jim Harbaugh meant way more to the Cardinal than everyone thinks. Oh, and in case you hadn't noticed, Chip Kelly can coach. He'll cement his place among the modern greats at the end of the season.
15. The Final Poll
1. Oregon
2. Oklahoma
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oklahoma State
5. Alabama
6. Boise State
7. South Florida
8. South Carolina
9. TCU
10. Nebraska
11. Penn State
12. Texas A&M
13. Florida
14. Wisconsin
15. Auburn
16. LSU
17. Houston
18. West Virginia
19. Arkansas
20. Stanford
21. Arizona
22. Notre Dame
23. Georgia
24. Northern Illinois
25. Missouri
And with that, let the games begin! Even amid scandal, looming seismic realignment, and the specter of the entire system collapsing in on itself because of rampant corruption and overexposure of the game, it's still the best sport we have. Let's keep it in its right place and have fun.
Here are the quick picks for this week...
1. Oregon 27, LSU 23
2. Boise State 31, Georgia 20
3. South Florida 28, Notre Dame 27
4. Maryland 20, Miami (FL) 16
5. Texas A&M 41, SMU 24
6. Oklahoma 51, Tulsa 31
7. South Carolina 22, East Carolina 7
8. USC 30, Minnesota 10
9. Houston 45, UCLA 27
10. Fresno State 23, California 20
11. Hawaii 34, Colorado 33
12. Boston College 27, Northwestern 17
13. BYU 31, Mississippi 28
14. Michigan 34, Western Michigan 26
15. West Virginia 48, Marshall 20
I just read my last post, a bowl season preview from December, in which I mentioned that there was a good chance I'd not be writing this year, being several thousand miles and a dozen time zones away. Well, call me a glutton for punishment, or mildly obsessive, but I couldn't stay away. But before you follow along this season you should know a few things:
1) This will take a different form than what had been usual. I'll still be picking the 15 best games of the week and hoping to crack the elusive .700 success line, but my posts will likely be less frequent and less tied to a preview of those 15 games. Let's face it, even in the digital age it's hard to follow an American sport that's considered very obscure at best here in Australia. I'll do my best, post random thoughts either related to upcoming games or those previous, or completely unrelated altogether. I'll try to talk some Australian rules and rugby too. And cricket if you're lucky. Follow me on twitter to keep up with the latest.
2) I know lots of crazy things have happened in the off-season, but I don't know jack about many details. American sports news is hard to come by unless you search it out, and I've chosen not to search it out. For all I know, Jim Tressel could have hung up the sweater vest by now. Wouldn't that be crazy! As a result, the following season predictions, as well as my weekly picks, could become utterly hilarious. But I'm convinced I have just as much chance at accuracy as anyone - it's the nature of the predictive game. So read on, and try not to laugh too hard.
With all that out of the way, it's on to the season preview.
1. Scandals will only continue, and even get worse
Yes, I do know about Jim Tressel. I'm not that out of the loop. And I know about Miami, and a few other schools too. It's an alarming trend sweeping college football - scandals involving shady recruiting, overzealous boosters, some frankly very disgusting perks, academic impropriety, the whole nine yards. But it's not a surprising one. The most shocking thing is that not more people have gotten caught. Show me a completely clean program and I'll show you an America with no national debt - it ain't gonna happen.
Sadly, as the NCAA continues to dig, and the universities themselves are forced to open their eyes to what's often sitting right in front of them, the scandals are only going to mount. And no amount of reform in college athletics will prevent them from happening. You can learn from the political history of any nation in the world that legislation does not produce righteousness. Utopia hasn't been attained yet because it's humanly impossible. So college sports will never be clean. Reform might take some edge off, but it won't deal with the root cause: corruption and greed. No matter how hard one might try (and we all know that with some of the asinine rules they've come up with that the NCAA has tried hard), you can't eliminate greed by making rules. In fact, you'll probably make it worse.
I hate to open the season of my favorite sport with such a downer, but it's reality. There is hope though, I think, but it's not the sort of hope many want to seek. To me, if you can't curtail corruption and greed by legislating behavior, you have to address it at the place it starts - the human heart. And my faith and life experience tells me that the only way that is changed is by spiritual renewal through Jesus Christ. So I envision two possible outcomes in the scandalous mess of college sports: either this spiritual renewal occurs at a radical, nationwide level; or the transgressions continue to mount to the point that the viewing public is so repulsed by it that they stop tuning in. While I hope and pray for the former, all signs right now point to the latter. College athletics has become such big business and such a part of the public eye that corruption is bound to overtake it. The 24-hour news cycle feeds it, the zeal of the fan bases feed it, the cash grab of the universities feed it. Of course impressionable college students would become entitled - they've been watched and idolized since 9th grade, and they're paraded into the spotlight without given much in return from their schools. Of course coaches would hide things - millions of dollars for their universities and their own vocational security rests on how their teams perform. Of course boosters would line up to throw wads of cash and perks at athletes - anything to feed the ravenous, unquenchable desire to win. It's a never ending cycle, and it will only cause college sports to collapse in on itself. Without radical transformation by Jesus, that is.
Whew. How do I transition from that soapbox moment? Guess I just have to move on.
2. As Unpredictable as Ever
Part of the fallout of all the scandal surrounding the sport right now will be increased parity. Instead of the rich getting richer, they're getting prosecuted. And the little guys have only to gain. Expect teams to look vastly different than your preview magazine says they will, and expect some shocking results. College football has always been a minefield of upsets and wild games, and this season will only be more so. The lack of a truly dominant team will only add to it as well. Remember the craziness of 2007? Don't be surprised if this season surpasses it.
3. Conference transitions have mixed results
It could have been worse. And it will get worse soon. But for now, we have a few small changes to the conference lineups, and don't expect newcomers like Nebraska, Colorado, Boise State, and Utah to have it easy. Nebraska is talented enough to march through the Big Ten, but they'll lose 2 games because their road will be unfamiliar and hostile. They haven't yet learned the tricks of how their new rivals work - what systems to expect, what formations to anticipate, what little things each program does. But the newcomers won't fall to the bottom of the pack either. Boise State will win the Mountain West, Nebraska will win their division, Utah will threaten to, and Colorado - well, let's not mention Colorado.
4. Big Parity in the Big Ten
Nebraska won't be the only contender to lose 2 conference games in the Big Ten this year. Don't be surprised if everyone has at least 2 losses by the end of November. Ohio State is fading, Penn State has QB questions, Wisconsin is as bruising as ever but without experience under center, Michigan State has a history of failed expectations, Nebraska has a brutal defense but a one-dimensional offense and the unfamiliarity issue, Iowa is in its usual underdog position but there are too many contenders to contend with, and no other teams appear to have the chops to run with those six. Just the fact that I can mention six potential conference winners without batting an eyelash at how realistic it is should tell you something. And Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue all could be above-average. The Big Ten will be fun to watch this year.
5.The SEC is too deep for its own good
Be wary of crowning the SEC champion an automatic national champion this year. Yes, it's been five straight; and yes, the SEC is head and shoulders above the rest. But this is the year it might be too good. No team looks like a runaway favorite, and as many as 8 teams, by some accounts, have a shot at the league title. Nearly a decade of stockpiling great coaches and top 20 recruiting classes will catch up to the SEC this year. For the first time in six years, the national championship game won't feature an SEC representative. Parity, not the ascension of other leagues to their lofty mantle, will do the conference in.
6. Get off of Mississippi State's bandwagon
Mississippi State is one of the aforementioned 8 teams purportedly to have a shot at the SEC crown. Don't buy it. Sure, Dan Mullen is back and the Bulldogs have some pieces returning, but this is the SEC West we're talking about - the deepest division in the land. Recruits have started coming to Starkville, but not enough to keep up with the big dogs. Yet. You can't expect them to compete with the likes of Alabama and LSU, who rake in top 5 recruiting classes every year. The Bulldogs will be this year's biggest letdown.
7. And get on South Florida's
South Florida, you say? Why not? The Big East is the french poodle at the dog show, and South Florida has been consistently solid for years. Skip Holtz can coach, B.J. Daniels is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, and the Bulls have shoved around Florida State and Miami enough to create a spot at Florida's big boy table. If the Bulls knock of Notre Dame in South Bend today, the schedule sets up quite nicely - all the remaining games they'd be favored to lose will be played in Tampa, all in November or December. When the Bulls are in the top 10 by mid-November, remember where you read it first.
8. Introduce yourself to...teams
In addition to South Florida, expect surprising seasons from these 5:
1) Arizona- Nick Foles is the most experienced QB in the Pac 12 not named Luck, and the South division is wide open.
2) Houston- Case Keenum is back, and that's enough to roll through C-USA
3) Kansas State- The Big 12 is deep, but K-State can hang. Bill Snyder carried the Wildcats to prominence before, and he's got them on their way again.
4) Louisville- Charlie Strong had a great debut year for the Cardinals; expect a better sophomore campaign.
5) Virginia- Mike London can coach with anyone, and the Cavaliers will be a thorn in more than one team's side this year.
9. Introduce yourself to...players
1) Michael Dyer, RB, Auburn- No longer will he be famous for just that crazy run near the end of last year's title game.
2) Silas Redd, RB, Penn State- freshman year had fans buzzing, and he leaped senior (and former buzz-generator himself) Stephon Green on the depth chart. Pinballer who's tough to tackle.
3) Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville- Highly touted true freshman will take the reins of the Cardinal offense by mid-season.
4) Jadevon Clowney, DE, South Carolina- Top recruit in the nation last year will make immediate mark.
5) David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech- a Hokie insider (read: friend who went there) tells me that Beamer has talked Wilson up more than any RB he's coached.
10. Same old Virginia Tech...or is it?
Speaking of the Hokies. For years it's been the same story for Virginia Tech: loaded defense, athletic but erratic QB, a bit of BeamerBall, and a 10 or 11 win plateau. One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, so we should not at all be surprised by Virginia Tech's inability to get over the hump. What's different this year? Well, one minor detail: the play-caller. Will that one change be enough? I don't think it will take them all the way, but it's a step in the right direction. If you take a look at the Hokies' schedule, this year is the year they ought to go undefeated. Their six road games? East Carolina, Marshall, Wake, Duke, GT, Virginia. The Hokies will break that 11-win ceiling, win the ACC again, and come just shy of a national title game berth.
11. The Scoreboard might break in Stillwater
Oklahoma State had a prolific offense last year, and it only stands to improve. Brandon Weeden is back with a year of experience under his belt, Justin Blackmon might be the best player in college football, and 8 other offensive starters return. The defense, however, will be what holds the Cowboys back from an elusive national championship. But they're close.
12. The Penn State forecast
I've made just 2 references to the Nittany Lions so far, so you have to humor me with some homer-ism. Most people think Penn State will settle into their typical spot in the top half of the Big Ten, falling just shy of a conference title. Maybe. Apart from the looming QB question mark, this team is more than capable of winning the Big Ten. Silas Redd and Stephon Green can both churn out yards, Derek Moye leads a deep fleet of receivers, and the defense is restocked and led by underrated coordinator Tom Bradley. Both Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin had significant experience last year, and whoever ends up with the permanent starting role should do just fine. And don't forget that with Ohio State's issues, the division race is wide open. Plus, the schedule does the Lions a favor. After an early season battle with Alabama, the Lions settle into a fairly open road, followed at the end of the season with this brutal stretch: vs. Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin. With a confidence-building run to that point, don't be surprised if the Nittany Lions win 2 of those 3 and take the Leaders division. My pick: 10-2, Leaders division winner, but a loss in the second matchup with Nebraska in the Big Ten title game.
13. The Bowls
New Orleans: Florida International over Marshall
Humanitarian: Fresno State over Temple
New Mexico: Colorado State over Utah State
Beef O'Brady's: Cincinnati over Central Florida
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Nevada
Maaco Las Vegas: TCU over Oregon State
Hawaii: Houston over Hawaii
Military: Boston College over Navy
Independence: Air Force over North Carolina
Little Caesars: Michigan over Ohio
Belk: South Florida over Clemson
Holiday: Arizona over Missouri
Champs Sports: Notre Dame over Georgia Tech
Alamo: Stanford over Texas
Pinstripe: Maryland over Louisville
Armed Forces: Southern Miss over BYU
Music City: Tennessee over Virginia
Insight: Michigan State over Kansas State
Meineke Car Care: Illinois over Texas Tech
Sun: Utah over Miami (FL)
Liberty: Mississippi State over Tulsa
Chick-fil-A: Arkansas over Florida State
Outback: Florida over Ohio State
Gator: LSU over Iowa
Capital One: Penn State over Georgia
TicketCity: Northwestern over SMU
BBVA Compass: Purdue over Pittsburgh
GoDaddy.com: Northern Illinois
Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona State over Army
Cotton: Texas A&M over Auburn
Rose: Alabama over Nebraska
Sugar: Boise State over South Carolina
Orange: Virginia Tech over West Virginia
Fiesta: Oklahoma State over Wisconsin
14. Your National Champion Is...Oregon!
Yes, the Ducks will return to the national championship game, but this time they get it done. In case you haven't pieced it together yet, Oklahoma is the missing piece, the Ducks' opponent in New Orleans. And why Oregon? Well, for one, they're loaded. The blur offense will be swooshing up and down the field behind Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, and the Duck defense is always underrated. The road won't be easy, but they'll nip LSU because they'll frustrate Jarrett Lee, and they'll get by Stanford because Jim Harbaugh meant way more to the Cardinal than everyone thinks. Oh, and in case you hadn't noticed, Chip Kelly can coach. He'll cement his place among the modern greats at the end of the season.
15. The Final Poll
1. Oregon
2. Oklahoma
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oklahoma State
5. Alabama
6. Boise State
7. South Florida
8. South Carolina
9. TCU
10. Nebraska
11. Penn State
12. Texas A&M
13. Florida
14. Wisconsin
15. Auburn
16. LSU
17. Houston
18. West Virginia
19. Arkansas
20. Stanford
21. Arizona
22. Notre Dame
23. Georgia
24. Northern Illinois
25. Missouri
And with that, let the games begin! Even amid scandal, looming seismic realignment, and the specter of the entire system collapsing in on itself because of rampant corruption and overexposure of the game, it's still the best sport we have. Let's keep it in its right place and have fun.
Here are the quick picks for this week...
1. Oregon 27, LSU 23
2. Boise State 31, Georgia 20
3. South Florida 28, Notre Dame 27
4. Maryland 20, Miami (FL) 16
5. Texas A&M 41, SMU 24
6. Oklahoma 51, Tulsa 31
7. South Carolina 22, East Carolina 7
8. USC 30, Minnesota 10
9. Houston 45, UCLA 27
10. Fresno State 23, California 20
11. Hawaii 34, Colorado 33
12. Boston College 27, Northwestern 17
13. BYU 31, Mississippi 28
14. Michigan 34, Western Michigan 26
15. West Virginia 48, Marshall 20
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