We're on the verge of springtime in Australia, which in this upside-down world means that college football season is upon us. It also means that I'm trying to stay awake until College Gameday begins at midnight, and my Nittany Lions kick off at 2am. Writing this might provide an extra 2 hours of energy to help me make it through.
I just read my last post, a bowl season preview from December, in which I mentioned that there was a good chance I'd not be writing this year, being several thousand miles and a dozen time zones away. Well, call me a glutton for punishment, or mildly obsessive, but I couldn't stay away. But before you follow along this season you should know a few things:
1) This will take a different form than what had been usual. I'll still be picking the 15 best games of the week and hoping to crack the elusive .700 success line, but my posts will likely be less frequent and less tied to a preview of those 15 games. Let's face it, even in the digital age it's hard to follow an American sport that's considered very obscure at best here in Australia. I'll do my best, post random thoughts either related to upcoming games or those previous, or completely unrelated altogether. I'll try to talk some Australian rules and rugby too. And cricket if you're lucky. Follow me on twitter to keep up with the latest.
2) I know lots of crazy things have happened in the off-season, but I don't know jack about many details. American sports news is hard to come by unless you search it out, and I've chosen not to search it out. For all I know, Jim Tressel could have hung up the sweater vest by now. Wouldn't that be crazy! As a result, the following season predictions, as well as my weekly picks, could become utterly hilarious. But I'm convinced I have just as much chance at accuracy as anyone - it's the nature of the predictive game. So read on, and try not to laugh too hard.
With all that out of the way, it's on to the season preview.
1. Scandals will only continue, and even get worse
Yes, I do know about Jim Tressel. I'm not that out of the loop. And I know about Miami, and a few other schools too. It's an alarming trend sweeping college football - scandals involving shady recruiting, overzealous boosters, some frankly very disgusting perks, academic impropriety, the whole nine yards. But it's not a surprising one. The most shocking thing is that not more people have gotten caught. Show me a completely clean program and I'll show you an America with no national debt - it ain't gonna happen.
Sadly, as the NCAA continues to dig, and the universities themselves are forced to open their eyes to what's often sitting right in front of them, the scandals are only going to mount. And no amount of reform in college athletics will prevent them from happening. You can learn from the political history of any nation in the world that legislation does not produce righteousness. Utopia hasn't been attained yet because it's humanly impossible. So college sports will never be clean. Reform might take some edge off, but it won't deal with the root cause: corruption and greed. No matter how hard one might try (and we all know that with some of the asinine rules they've come up with that the NCAA has tried hard), you can't eliminate greed by making rules. In fact, you'll probably make it worse.
I hate to open the season of my favorite sport with such a downer, but it's reality. There is hope though, I think, but it's not the sort of hope many want to seek. To me, if you can't curtail corruption and greed by legislating behavior, you have to address it at the place it starts - the human heart. And my faith and life experience tells me that the only way that is changed is by spiritual renewal through Jesus Christ. So I envision two possible outcomes in the scandalous mess of college sports: either this spiritual renewal occurs at a radical, nationwide level; or the transgressions continue to mount to the point that the viewing public is so repulsed by it that they stop tuning in. While I hope and pray for the former, all signs right now point to the latter. College athletics has become such big business and such a part of the public eye that corruption is bound to overtake it. The 24-hour news cycle feeds it, the zeal of the fan bases feed it, the cash grab of the universities feed it. Of course impressionable college students would become entitled - they've been watched and idolized since 9th grade, and they're paraded into the spotlight without given much in return from their schools. Of course coaches would hide things - millions of dollars for their universities and their own vocational security rests on how their teams perform. Of course boosters would line up to throw wads of cash and perks at athletes - anything to feed the ravenous, unquenchable desire to win. It's a never ending cycle, and it will only cause college sports to collapse in on itself. Without radical transformation by Jesus, that is.
Whew. How do I transition from that soapbox moment? Guess I just have to move on.
2. As Unpredictable as Ever
Part of the fallout of all the scandal surrounding the sport right now will be increased parity. Instead of the rich getting richer, they're getting prosecuted. And the little guys have only to gain. Expect teams to look vastly different than your preview magazine says they will, and expect some shocking results. College football has always been a minefield of upsets and wild games, and this season will only be more so. The lack of a truly dominant team will only add to it as well. Remember the craziness of 2007? Don't be surprised if this season surpasses it.
3. Conference transitions have mixed results
It could have been worse. And it will get worse soon. But for now, we have a few small changes to the conference lineups, and don't expect newcomers like Nebraska, Colorado, Boise State, and Utah to have it easy. Nebraska is talented enough to march through the Big Ten, but they'll lose 2 games because their road will be unfamiliar and hostile. They haven't yet learned the tricks of how their new rivals work - what systems to expect, what formations to anticipate, what little things each program does. But the newcomers won't fall to the bottom of the pack either. Boise State will win the Mountain West, Nebraska will win their division, Utah will threaten to, and Colorado - well, let's not mention Colorado.
4. Big Parity in the Big Ten
Nebraska won't be the only contender to lose 2 conference games in the Big Ten this year. Don't be surprised if everyone has at least 2 losses by the end of November. Ohio State is fading, Penn State has QB questions, Wisconsin is as bruising as ever but without experience under center, Michigan State has a history of failed expectations, Nebraska has a brutal defense but a one-dimensional offense and the unfamiliarity issue, Iowa is in its usual underdog position but there are too many contenders to contend with, and no other teams appear to have the chops to run with those six. Just the fact that I can mention six potential conference winners without batting an eyelash at how realistic it is should tell you something. And Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue all could be above-average. The Big Ten will be fun to watch this year.
5.The SEC is too deep for its own good
Be wary of crowning the SEC champion an automatic national champion this year. Yes, it's been five straight; and yes, the SEC is head and shoulders above the rest. But this is the year it might be too good. No team looks like a runaway favorite, and as many as 8 teams, by some accounts, have a shot at the league title. Nearly a decade of stockpiling great coaches and top 20 recruiting classes will catch up to the SEC this year. For the first time in six years, the national championship game won't feature an SEC representative. Parity, not the ascension of other leagues to their lofty mantle, will do the conference in.
6. Get off of Mississippi State's bandwagon
Mississippi State is one of the aforementioned 8 teams purportedly to have a shot at the SEC crown. Don't buy it. Sure, Dan Mullen is back and the Bulldogs have some pieces returning, but this is the SEC West we're talking about - the deepest division in the land. Recruits have started coming to Starkville, but not enough to keep up with the big dogs. Yet. You can't expect them to compete with the likes of Alabama and LSU, who rake in top 5 recruiting classes every year. The Bulldogs will be this year's biggest letdown.
7. And get on South Florida's
South Florida, you say? Why not? The Big East is the french poodle at the dog show, and South Florida has been consistently solid for years. Skip Holtz can coach, B.J. Daniels is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, and the Bulls have shoved around Florida State and Miami enough to create a spot at Florida's big boy table. If the Bulls knock of Notre Dame in South Bend today, the schedule sets up quite nicely - all the remaining games they'd be favored to lose will be played in Tampa, all in November or December. When the Bulls are in the top 10 by mid-November, remember where you read it first.
8. Introduce yourself to...teams
In addition to South Florida, expect surprising seasons from these 5:
1) Arizona- Nick Foles is the most experienced QB in the Pac 12 not named Luck, and the South division is wide open.
2) Houston- Case Keenum is back, and that's enough to roll through C-USA
3) Kansas State- The Big 12 is deep, but K-State can hang. Bill Snyder carried the Wildcats to prominence before, and he's got them on their way again.
4) Louisville- Charlie Strong had a great debut year for the Cardinals; expect a better sophomore campaign.
5) Virginia- Mike London can coach with anyone, and the Cavaliers will be a thorn in more than one team's side this year.
9. Introduce yourself to...players
1) Michael Dyer, RB, Auburn- No longer will he be famous for just that crazy run near the end of last year's title game.
2) Silas Redd, RB, Penn State- freshman year had fans buzzing, and he leaped senior (and former buzz-generator himself) Stephon Green on the depth chart. Pinballer who's tough to tackle.
3) Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville- Highly touted true freshman will take the reins of the Cardinal offense by mid-season.
4) Jadevon Clowney, DE, South Carolina- Top recruit in the nation last year will make immediate mark.
5) David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech- a Hokie insider (read: friend who went there) tells me that Beamer has talked Wilson up more than any RB he's coached.
10. Same old Virginia Tech...or is it?
Speaking of the Hokies. For years it's been the same story for Virginia Tech: loaded defense, athletic but erratic QB, a bit of BeamerBall, and a 10 or 11 win plateau. One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, so we should not at all be surprised by Virginia Tech's inability to get over the hump. What's different this year? Well, one minor detail: the play-caller. Will that one change be enough? I don't think it will take them all the way, but it's a step in the right direction. If you take a look at the Hokies' schedule, this year is the year they ought to go undefeated. Their six road games? East Carolina, Marshall, Wake, Duke, GT, Virginia. The Hokies will break that 11-win ceiling, win the ACC again, and come just shy of a national title game berth.
11. The Scoreboard might break in Stillwater
Oklahoma State had a prolific offense last year, and it only stands to improve. Brandon Weeden is back with a year of experience under his belt, Justin Blackmon might be the best player in college football, and 8 other offensive starters return. The defense, however, will be what holds the Cowboys back from an elusive national championship. But they're close.
12. The Penn State forecast
I've made just 2 references to the Nittany Lions so far, so you have to humor me with some homer-ism. Most people think Penn State will settle into their typical spot in the top half of the Big Ten, falling just shy of a conference title. Maybe. Apart from the looming QB question mark, this team is more than capable of winning the Big Ten. Silas Redd and Stephon Green can both churn out yards, Derek Moye leads a deep fleet of receivers, and the defense is restocked and led by underrated coordinator Tom Bradley. Both Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin had significant experience last year, and whoever ends up with the permanent starting role should do just fine. And don't forget that with Ohio State's issues, the division race is wide open. Plus, the schedule does the Lions a favor. After an early season battle with Alabama, the Lions settle into a fairly open road, followed at the end of the season with this brutal stretch: vs. Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin. With a confidence-building run to that point, don't be surprised if the Nittany Lions win 2 of those 3 and take the Leaders division. My pick: 10-2, Leaders division winner, but a loss in the second matchup with Nebraska in the Big Ten title game.
13. The Bowls
New Orleans: Florida International over Marshall
Humanitarian: Fresno State over Temple
New Mexico: Colorado State over Utah State
Beef O'Brady's: Cincinnati over Central Florida
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Nevada
Maaco Las Vegas: TCU over Oregon State
Hawaii: Houston over Hawaii
Military: Boston College over Navy
Independence: Air Force over North Carolina
Little Caesars: Michigan over Ohio
Belk: South Florida over Clemson
Holiday: Arizona over Missouri
Champs Sports: Notre Dame over Georgia Tech
Alamo: Stanford over Texas
Pinstripe: Maryland over Louisville
Armed Forces: Southern Miss over BYU
Music City: Tennessee over Virginia
Insight: Michigan State over Kansas State
Meineke Car Care: Illinois over Texas Tech
Sun: Utah over Miami (FL)
Liberty: Mississippi State over Tulsa
Chick-fil-A: Arkansas over Florida State
Outback: Florida over Ohio State
Gator: LSU over Iowa
Capital One: Penn State over Georgia
TicketCity: Northwestern over SMU
BBVA Compass: Purdue over Pittsburgh
GoDaddy.com: Northern Illinois
Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona State over Army
Cotton: Texas A&M over Auburn
Rose: Alabama over Nebraska
Sugar: Boise State over South Carolina
Orange: Virginia Tech over West Virginia
Fiesta: Oklahoma State over Wisconsin
14. Your National Champion Is...Oregon!
Yes, the Ducks will return to the national championship game, but this time they get it done. In case you haven't pieced it together yet, Oklahoma is the missing piece, the Ducks' opponent in New Orleans. And why Oregon? Well, for one, they're loaded. The blur offense will be swooshing up and down the field behind Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, and the Duck defense is always underrated. The road won't be easy, but they'll nip LSU because they'll frustrate Jarrett Lee, and they'll get by Stanford because Jim Harbaugh meant way more to the Cardinal than everyone thinks. Oh, and in case you hadn't noticed, Chip Kelly can coach. He'll cement his place among the modern greats at the end of the season.
15. The Final Poll
1. Oregon
2. Oklahoma
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oklahoma State
5. Alabama
6. Boise State
7. South Florida
8. South Carolina
9. TCU
10. Nebraska
11. Penn State
12. Texas A&M
13. Florida
14. Wisconsin
15. Auburn
16. LSU
17. Houston
18. West Virginia
19. Arkansas
20. Stanford
21. Arizona
22. Notre Dame
23. Georgia
24. Northern Illinois
25. Missouri
And with that, let the games begin! Even amid scandal, looming seismic realignment, and the specter of the entire system collapsing in on itself because of rampant corruption and overexposure of the game, it's still the best sport we have. Let's keep it in its right place and have fun.
Here are the quick picks for this week...
1. Oregon 27, LSU 23
2. Boise State 31, Georgia 20
3. South Florida 28, Notre Dame 27
4. Maryland 20, Miami (FL) 16
5. Texas A&M 41, SMU 24
6. Oklahoma 51, Tulsa 31
7. South Carolina 22, East Carolina 7
8. USC 30, Minnesota 10
9. Houston 45, UCLA 27
10. Fresno State 23, California 20
11. Hawaii 34, Colorado 33
12. Boston College 27, Northwestern 17
13. BYU 31, Mississippi 28
14. Michigan 34, Western Michigan 26
15. West Virginia 48, Marshall 20
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