Thursday, September 8, 2011

What Did We Learn Last Week?

The short answer to that question is: absolutely nothing. One game does not a season make, and we have a loooong way to go in this dance party. Overreaction is at an all-time high after week one, and we shouldn't take anything being said about any team's seriously. Wait for the end of the month before you make a fair assessment. That's a bit of good news for Oregon fans and a downer for those of LSU. It's also one of the main reasons I think giving the polls any credence at this point is ludicrous. You won't find it here. The first week you should possibly release polls is week 3, and those positions should be loosely held at best.


So while we basically learned nothing, let's make a few observations anyway:


1. Oregon will be fine.
The Ducks have been in this position before (losing an opener to Boise State a few years ago), and managed to have a great year. They may not be able to scramble back to the top of the heap and be invited to the title game (though it would be nice for my sake if they did), but they're not finished in the top 5. Chip Kelly will rally the troops, and the Pac-12 had better watch out.

2. LSU is better than I thought.
Let's face it - I'm not the biggest Les Miles fan. Interview reveal him to be a few planks short of a full bridge, and his coaching decisions are often questionable at best. I'm still not behind either Jarrett Lee or Jordan Jefferson, but the Tigers are chockers (Aussie term) with talent. Even Miles might not be able to botch this up. Crap...here I go overreacting. Calm down. Miles will manage to eat some grass that's got a bit too much fertilizer on it and stuff up (another Aussie term) another endgame situation. LSU will not go unbeaten. But they're very good.

3. Rise of the FCS
Richmond knocking off Duke isn't all that surprising, though it's a blow to a Duke program that had been on the way up. But the Spiders weren't the only little guys to spring a major upset last week. Lowly Sacramento State, a middle of the pack Big Sky program, took out notorious slow starter Oregon State. The Beavers lost Jaquizz Rodgers and they always seem to ease into the season, but that was ridiculous. They were down 21-6 at one point and needed a big fourth quarter just to force OT. Yeesh. In addition to those two, there were quite a few near misses: Northern Iowa (at Iowa State), Eastern Washington (at Washington State), Eastern Kentucky (at Kansas State), and even tiny Stony Brook (at UTEP) almost turned the trick. Are there any shockers to come this week? Keep your eye on Northern Colorado against Colorado State, Wofford at Clemson, and Stony Brook with another shot at Buffalo.

4. The Lane Kiffin era has a slightly different tone than the Pete Carroll era.
USC 19, Minnesota 17. The Trojans have clearly struck fear into the hearts of the college football world with this thrashing of the Big Ten's worst team. Safe to say that USC's fall from the peak of the college football world has been abrupt (and beautiful). Kiffin is certainly not the only one to blame, but he's not the man to bring the Trojans back. Staring another mediocre season in the face, will USC brass fire him this year or tighten up the leash for one more first?

Week 2 Quick Picks
Joe Paterno (I think) is famous for saying that you learn most about your football team between weeks 1 and 2, and that your biggest improvement should come in that stretch. We'll see who that's true of this weekend. Personally I hope Paterno coaches the Lions up and they improve enough to take down mighty Alabama. Here are my quick picks:

1. Alabama 20, Penn State 13. Bama still breaking in a new QB, plus the home game gives Lions hope, but Tide defense is too much.

2. Notre Dame 27, Michigan 20. Irish bounce back, Wolverines not back yet.

3. Oklahoma State 48, Arizona 31. Shootout in Stillwater, but Pokes have too much firepower for Wildcats to keep up with.

4. South Carolina 21, Georgia 14. Don't read into Carolina's performance too much, it's early. Let the rumor mill surrounding the Mark Richt tenure begin again...

5. Missouri 30, Arizona State 24. Missouri could be one of the more underrated teams heading into the season, Arizona State one of the more overrated.

6. Auburn 31, Mississippi State 28. Still not buying Mississippi State yet, and Utah State is better than most think. Auburn's win last week isn't as ugly as you think it was.

7. Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 26. Vols on the rise, could surprise this year in SEC East.

8. Texas 20, BYU 17. BYU can't win 2 in a row on the road against BCS-conference schools.

9. Wisconsin 38, Oregon State 17. Early kick in Madison, coupled with disastrous beginning for Beavers spells doom.

10. TCU 31, Air Force 21. Horned Frogs bounce back. But what happened to the D?

11. Colorado 24, California 23. Buffs get first Pac-12 win in first try. Will it be the only one of the year?

12. North Carolina 34, Rutgers 21. Even the scandal surrounding the Tar Heel program can't keep them from losing to Rutgers.

13. Nebraska 37, Fresno State 17. The "anyone, anywhere, anytime" mantra has worn quite thin for Fresno.

14. N.C. State 30, Wake Forest 27. Matchup of ACC also-rans is a true toss-up.

15. USC 27, Utah 20. Trojans may not be fearsome anymore, but they won't let the new guys in that easy.

And one final note:

You probably have no idea, but this is quite the power-packed weekend in the world (literally) of football. In the US, it's the long-awaited return of the NFL alongside the heating up of college football, but on this side of the Pacific, where the term 'football' is applied to a far broader range of games, we've got quite a slate as well. The Australian Rules Football finals begin their four-week march to a championship; as does Australia's National Rugby League. And a mongrel punt (Aussie term) across the Tasman Sea, in New Zealand, the Rugby World Cup gets underway. It's safe to say that I'll watch the widest variety of football of my life over the next 3 days.

2 comments:

P.J. Walk said...

How are you picking Notre Dame to win? That is insane of you. I agree completely that there should not be a huge over reaction to stuff which happened week one. Hope you enjoy your vast array of football throughout the coming days. Also, would love to chat with you sometime perhaps on skype? Please let me know via here, twiiter or fb.

Jason Weimer said...

The question is: how are you, Notre Dame fan, not behind them this week. Michigan's not back yet, and the Irish deserve more credit than they got after last week. South Florida is good, and ND fought hard and nearly came back. Look me up on skype, if I'm on the computer it's usually on.