Week 9: WITTPWLLN Review

Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com wrote a column this week arguing that if the college season would end right now, it would go down in history as a major dud (not that anything in the world of college sports will make it deep into the annals of history anyway - how many history textbooks chronicle the greatest gladiator seasons of the Roman empire?). And he's right, especially considering the fact that many (including yours truly) argued before the season that it could be the greatest college season of all time. Why, again, do we attempt to make such ludicrous predictions?

In many ways this has been a rather bland season. Upsets have been present, but no more than usual. We've seen extremely competitive play, but with no dominant teams it loses some sizzle. You need a Goliath everyone thinks will never fall. Beyond the fact that the teams everyone resoundingly agreed would be dominant (Florida, Texas, Oklahoma) aren't, there have been relatively few surprises, going both ways. No completely out-of-nowhere team has shot up the polls (unless you count Cincinnati, and savvy fans could have seen that coming). Nor has any major contender beyond Oklahoma taken a titanic fall, and even the Sooners 3 losses have come on the total of 5 points. Florida State just misses the cut here because they were a bit of a crapshoot to begin with - top 25, yes, but a start like theirs was not totally improbable.

Perhaps the craziness this year will all be backloaded into the last month, and we're in for quite a show. Let's hope. In any case, I thought it would be fun to talk a look into my little experiment called the WITTPWLLN (What I Thought The Polls Would Look Like Now). In making my season picks before it all got underway in September, I extrapolated the season out week by week, predicting results and changing the polls accordingly. Beyond the fact that this exposes me as a total nerd, it makes for an interesting sidebar and an ongoing display of why preseason predictions are absurd. There are some strange things in there, which is intentional because at this point in any season there are some things in the polls that no one would ever have imagined back in August. But being the bland and somewhat predictable season it's been, I'm actually not all that far off the mark. Sixteen of the teams in the current WITTPWLLN are also in the actual BCS standings, and 11 of the top 15. I have six teams within 3 poll places of their actual location, including 5 of the top 10. Looking over the list, I've certainly done better than I expected. But there are some laughable oddities too:

Michigan State at #6 - their little 3 game losing streak was out of the blue - looking at their schedule before the season all those games looked loseable, but I expected them to be the better team in all. And maybe they were.

N.C. State at #10 - um, whoops? Schedule looked incredibly easy and Tom O'Brien has always been a winner. Yet 2 of their 3 wins have come against 1-AA competition. How, exactly, did they beat Pitt?

Nebraska at #14 - 3 weeks ago I looked like a genius.

Tennessee at #18 - I seem to remember Lane Kiffin stopping by for some Kool-Aid in mid-August.

Iowa at #20 - few would have seen them undefeated right now.

South Florida at #21 - I forgot that their annual swoon begins in mid-October, not late October.

North Carolina at #24 - I should have expected a Butch Davis-coached team to underachieve. He and Ron Zook need to form support groups for the hordes of fans they've strung along with mighty recruiting followed by zero results. Poor guys need to get themselves into "recruiting coordinator" roles and stick with where they're gifted.

And coming soon to the WITTPWLLN: Colorado (I think I made the same mistake last year too), and of course, Oklahoma State in the top 2 (which still has an outside chance of happening. WAY outside).

Then again, the real polls have the following anomalies almost no one saw coming in August: #8 Cincinnati, #17 Houston, #20 Arizona.

Anyway, I'm really dragging this thing out. This ship ran aground 6 paragraphs ago. On to this week's picks.

1. Penn State at Northwestern

Again eschewing the glamorous matchups in the #1 spot in favor of my Nittany Lions. This game has danger written all over it for me as a Penn State fan. Sandwiched between games with Michigan (a monkey-off-the-back win) and Ohio State (a season-defining game), the Nittany Lions have to go to Evanston, where the tiny stadium lets all the wind off the lake in. And it starts at the odd, made for TV time of 4:30. The last time Penn State travelled to Northwestern, they escaped with a last minute 5 point victory, in 2005. On paper, Penn State should win by 21. But it will be closer than that. Penn State's defense, which has allowed more than 10 points only twice all season, won't let them lose, but things could be dicey for awhile.

Penn State 23, Northwestern 14

2. Texas at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State's great hope to resurrect their season. I circled this as an upset waiting to happen as soon as I saw the schedules, but I'm not so sure anymore. It's the last major hurdle standing between Texas and an undefeated season, and I think the Longhorns will be ready. Texas quiets what will be a raucous crowd early, and Okie State can't get back into it.

Texas 38, Oklahoma State 24

3. USC at Oregon

Oregon has arguably been the best team in the nation the last 5 or 6 weeks, and they get a vulnerable USC team in Autzen Stadium at night. USC typically thrives in this sort of game, but right now Oregon is the better team. They've not even missed LaGarrette Blount, ranking 14th nationally in rushing. Expect lots of run against a defense who struggled with Lil' Quizz last week.

Oregon 31, USC 27

4. Georgia vs. Florida

It's come time in the season for another Tebow speech to get the Gators riled up for November.

Florida 30, Georgia 17

5. West Virginia at South Florida

South Florida has shown in the past 2 weeks that they're not nearly as good as they looked after reeling off wins in their first 5. This is a mediocre team.

West Virginia 28, South Florida 20

6. Mississippi at Auburn

If Auburn's not too busy trying to find the wheels that have fallen off their bandwagon, they should be able to beat Ole Miss, who have to be considered Exhibit A when it comes to offseason media inflation.

Auburn 27, Mississippi 24

7. Kansas at Texas Tech

Kansas rights the ship in Lubbock as their porous defense catches a break against a freshman QB.

Kansas 35, Texas Tech 32

8. Kansas State at Oklahoma

I'm picking this game not because I think it'll be close, but because of the astounding fact that Kansas State leads the Big 12 North. This is perhaps the most surprising thing I've seen this entire football season, with a close second going to the fact that Iowa State currently sits alone at #2. I hope they've enjoyed their time on top, it's only down from here.

Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 13

9. California at Arizona State

I'm taking California off "Middling Pac Ten Team" status, therefore they're exempt from the home team always wins rule when applied to those games.

California 31, Arizona State 21

10. Miami (FL) at Wake Forest

Starting to hit the dregs at what appears to be a very top-heavy week of action. Miami keeps their division hopes alive with a tough road win.

Miami (FL) 33, Wake Forest 20

11. Duke at Virginia

Don't look now, but these are two ACC Coastal contenders, at least on paper. Hard to believe after they both lost to Colonial Athletic Association teams in week one. A Duke win would leave them just one win from bowl eligibility. I'll go out on a limb and say they get it - Virginia's offense is kind of anemic and they're 1-3 at home.

Duke 20, Virginia 17

12. South Carolina at Tennessee

Tennessee's near miss at Alabama has me believing they can be a pretty good team before the year's out. Or is that the Lane Kiffin Kool-Aid I'm drinking again?

Tennessee 19, South Carolina 7

13. North Carolina at Virginia Tech

Tar Heels won't challenge VT in Lane Stadium at night.

Virginia Tech 34, North Carolina 14

14. Southern Mississippi at Houston

Possibly a C-USA title game preview. Houston just doesn't smell like a top 20 team to me, and Southern Miss is capable of knocking them off that peg. Not sure it means anything as the conference plays little to no defense, but Southern Miss ranks first in it in C-USA.

Southern Mississippi 28, Houston 24

15. Rutgers at Connecticut

The absolute paucity of interesting games leaves me with the choices of this, CMU-BC, Purdue-Wisconsin, MSU-Minnesota, and Temple-Navy as somewhat marketable freshman fifteen selections. Good grief. UConn gets an emotional win for Jasper Howard in their first home game since his death, and Rutgers coach and all around stand-up guy Greg Schiano has his team show as much respect and sportsmanship as was displayed in West Virginia last Saturday. Way to go, Big East - you're doing it right. It's a shame that it often takes tragedy to draw this sort of character out.

Connecticut 24, Rutgers 17

Next: another rousing edition of Saturday postgame

Saturday Postgame: Week 8

This is becoming a stranger season by the week. No team could be labeled as dominant, yet I get the sense that at least one team will end up undefeated by the end of the year. In recent years when one or two teams emerge as clear dominant powers, the media begins to tout them as unstoppable and uses terms like "collision course" or "walk into the title game" to describe their future destiny. It's as if gravity would reverse before they'd lose. I think this hype gets to the players on those teams, and they begin to believe it, resulting in a subconscious overconfidence that catches up with them when they don't have their best stuff against a quality opponent. Even if the media talk doesn't get to them, their own success causes that subconscious cockiness to set in. When you blow out teams by 40 week after week, you're apt to let your guard down. It doesn't take long to remember examples. Oklahoma in 2003 was considered a pro team in college uniforms; they lost 35-7 to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. USC has long been considered untouchable, yet they lose to Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, or some other unranked Pac Ten foe year after year.

The reason I think someone will make it through unscathed this year is simply because no teams have run completely roughshod over their competition week after week, and the media hasn't latched on to any team, lavishing superlative after superlative upon them. Every major contender and every undefeated team has had their share of trouble - at least 2 games apiece where they've had to dig deep and find a way to win. While blowouts breed complacency, close wins breed focus. Instead of a subconscious overconfidence, contenders develop a keen awareness that they could easily lose any game they play. And they tend to survive those scares instead of panic and find ways to lose. Alabama, Florida, and Iowa are probably the most mentally tough teams this season; any of them would be good bets to finish the season unbeaten. They know how to win late.

Other observations from another quality week:

From sea to shining sea, Penn State fans are reveling in the second straight thrashing of Michigan, authoritatively ending the sentiment that the Wolverines "own" Penn State. A 35-10 mauling in the Big House (and it wasn't really even that close) will do that.

The Nittany Lion defense is beginning to assert itself as one of the top 5 in the nation again. A week after holding Minnesota to 130 yards, they stifled Michigan, allowing just 180 yards after Michigan's first drive. Michigan helped out by losing their heads at times, snapping one through the end zone, using poor time management, taking dumb penalties. One has to think that the 11 men standing on the other side of the ball, weakening knees and causing hair to stand on end, had much to do with that.

Darryl Clark has hit his stride this season, with a 4 TD game this week. If the senior hadn't performed so poorly against Iowa, Heisman talk would start coming his direction.

On the bright side for Michigan, punter Zoltan Mesko is quite impressive. And he's the first ever Division-I football player from Alderaan. Before enrolling at Michigan, Zoltan had designs on being a starfighter pilot. But the Wolverine recruiting coordinator spotted him, and the rest is history. Give Michigan credit for combing faraway galaxies to find a decent punter.

Most underrated play-by-play guy: Mike Patrick. His voice carries drama and he's not afraid to speak his mind when refs miss a call. No sugarcoating here. Too bad ABC has him paired with Craig James, who just rubs me the wrong way.

Iowa, as mentioned above, showed serious mental toughness and moxie in their last second win in East Lansing. The Hawkeye offense had done almost nothing for 3 quarters, but came through when it had to. Last year Iowa lost 4 games by a total of 9 points; that experience has paid off big time this year as the Hawkeyes are the team you have to put away decisively, or they'll find a way to beat you.

Shocking score of the week: Texas A&M 52, Texas Tech 30. The Red Raiders beat up on Nebraska last week, allowing only 10 points. The Aggies were blasted 62-14 against Kansas State. Huh?

Shocking stat of the week: Nebraska turned the ball over 8 times in their awful loss at home to Iowa State. Polite as Nebraska's fans are, even they couldn't tolerate the pathetic Cornhusker performance. Eight turnovers is the highest single game total I can remember.

TCU officially owns BYU. 38-7 in Provo this year after 32-7 in Fort Worth last year. Don't sleep on the Horned Frogs, they're this year's snowball rolling down a mountain - gaining force and momentum week after week.

When will the Cincinnati Bearcats be taken seriously? These guys are really good.

The Oregon Ducks are the best one-loss team in the country. Kudos to Chip Kelly for getting the Ducks to right the ship after their dismal outing in Boise.

Georgia Tech seems to have corrected their early season woes of letting teams get back into games and not being able to stop anybody on defense. The Yellow Jackets are on the inside track to winning the ACC. Then again, it is the ACC, and it would be surprising if anyone, even the impressive Yellow Jackets, made it through with less than 2 losses.

West Virginia fans often, and deservedly, get a bad rap for their boorish behavior. But this week they showed the ultimate in class in the way they welcomed UConn to Mountaineer field - a gracious standing ovation as the Huskies marched onto the field, united in their grief.

Speaking of that game, admirable performance by UConn today. It's too bad they couldn't hold on for the win. But Noel Devine was too much - by far the most talented player on the field, and the Huskies didn't have an answer for him.

And lastly, the number of the week, the combined total of the Penn State-Michigan scores the past 2 seasons. Just let it linger, savor it, sear it into your mind's eye:

81-27.

Week 8: Tweeted Picks

Another week of survival looms, as top contenders face tricky road games and stern home tests. There are no real glamour games on the schedule, but it’s college football – you know it will be entertaining nonetheless. It’s also Penn State-Michigan week, which means that we Nittany Lions enter a week of coming up with new and fresh ways to trash our most hated rival. Be advised – t-shirt stores in State College are not the most family-friendly places during this week. The Freshman Fifteen doesn’t endorse crass, demeaning, bawdy remarks, but still will find ways to appropriately and respectfully trash M!($#!&@n (that word is akin to a curse word in my household). All in good fun, of course – I’m sure the folks in Ann Arbor and the surrounding areas are fine people. I just can’t stand their football team.

I’m away all week at a conference with little internet access, so for the sake of time I have to make this a short post. So let’s have a little fun and do the game descriptions Twitter-style (140 characters or less). Here are my 15 tweets for the week:

1. Penn State at Michigan

Dominant PSU defense rattles young Mich. QB’s, Lions roar to first win in Big House in over a decade

Penn State 27, Michigan 13

2. Tennessee at Alabama

Upset alert for Bama as they face tough Vol defense, but Bama’s D carries them to low-scoring victory

Alabama 16, Tennessee 10

3. Auburn at LSU

Used to be premier SEC West game. LSU uses home field and close game experience to win battle of the Tigers

LSU 34, Auburn 24

4. TCU at BYU

TCU D dominated Max Hall & Cougars last year, no reason to think this year will be any different

TCU 21, BYU 13

5. Oregon State at USC

Beavers have USC’s number recently, pull another huge upset against extra-vulnerable Trojans

Oregon State 23, USC 22

6. Oklahoma at Kansas

Sooners regroup and get impressive road win that ignites strong second half of schedule

Oklahoma 41, Kansas 20

7. Boston College at Notre Dame

Cardiac Irish steal another close one, bounce back from heartbreaker against ACC Atlantic’s best offering

Notre Dame 31, Boston College 28

8. South Florida at Pittsburgh

Pitt improving week by week, USF offense not good enough to keep up

Pittsburgh 34, South Florida 21

9. Texas at Missouri

UT still not living up to expectations, survive another week but upsets will come soon

Texas 28, Missouri 14

10. Iowa at Michigan State

Iowa stronger on road than at home, use grit and guts to pass another test in Lansing

Iowa 23, Michigan State 17

11. Georgia Tech at Virginia

Suddenly surging, ACC leading Cavs make Thomas Jefferson proud with win over GT squad primed for letdown after last week’s emotional win

Virginia 28, Georgia Tech 27

12. Clemson at Miami (FL)

Miami continues re-emergent season with another big win

Miami (FL) 33, Clemson 20

13. Arkansas at Mississippi

Hogs have little left after near-miss in Gainesville, Ole Miss offense restarts engines against vulnerable Arkansas D

Mississippi 38, Arkansas 24

14. Oregon at Washington

Ducks avoid same fate as USC by squeaking past inspired U-Dub

Oregon 26, Washington 21

15. Connecticut at West Virginia

UConn plays inspired football and get upset win for tragically fallen teammate

Connecticut 24, West Virginia 20

Next: Saturday wrap-up that promises to be less terse, more verbose

Saturday Postgame: Week 7

Some thoughts from a wild week of survival in college football:

Top 10 teams across the land are breathing huge sighs of relief tonight, as the top 3 all played sloppily and eked out victories and #6 USC somehow survived a furious Irish rally. Add to that 5th ranked Boise State's unimpressive performance in Tulsa on Wednesday, and you have 5 of the top 6 teams just glad they have more lives to live. At least their fates are better than #4 Virginia Tech and #7 Ohio State, who were ambushed in tough environments and failed to survive.

Imagine if even just a few of those close results had gone the other way, or all of them. Every top 7 team save Alabama either lost or won by a TD or less. A few things go differently and we're sitting here in stunned silence as 6 of the top 7 teams have lost, something I'm sure has never happened before. We weren't that far off.

You might hear arguments that there are no dominant teams this year, Alabama possibly being the lone exception, a sentiment I found myself thinking earlier this evening. It's partly true, college football is amazingly balanced this season and any number of teams can make a national championship run. A Cincinnati-Iowa matchup is not that impossible. But upon closer examination, every contender has to fight through a week like this - when they don't have their best stuff, face a pesky opponent and have to handle second half adversity to pull through and win. It happens every year. So we can't read too much into these close results, it's just October football. Credit the teams who survived on their character and grit.

Oklahoma is as deserving as anyone to bear the label of "hard-luck". They've lost 3 games by a total of 5 points, and you have to think those results would be different if it weren't for a few injuries. We'll see how good a coach Bob Stoops is now. It's not hard to take an elite collection of talent and win 11 games annually, the mark of a good coach is how he guides his team through a season like Oklahoma's.

Cincinnati is a legitimate top 5 team and national title contender. What was most impressive about their Thursday night win in Tampa was that they did it with Heisman contender Tony Pike on the bench for much of the game. Their play calling and game management are as good as anyone's, and their defense, which began the season as nearly a completely new group of starters, is getting stronger weekly.

Mark Ingram of Alabama is as impressive a RB as there is in the country. He rang up over 100 yards after contact, and gets stronger as the game goes on. He's got NFL Pro Bowl talent and work ethic.

I was wrong on Nebraska apparently. A 3 TD loss to rebuilding Texas Tech is not what a national title and Big 12 Conference contender does.

Before the season I stuck the Purdue Boilermakers with the label of "Most Disappointing Team of 2009". This is true if you live in Ohio or if you're me - I'm very disappointed they're not disappointing.

Dominating defensive performance of the day: Penn State. You won't confuse the Minnesota offense for the 2008 New England Patriots, but they can get up and down the field, and the Nittany Lions have struggled against pass-heavy and spread offenses in recent years. Not so today - the Lions hit hard, never let up, and held stud WR Eric Decker to just one catch.

Strangest and most surprising score of the week: Kansas State 62, Texas A&M 14. This is a Kansas State team who lost to Louisiana-Lafayette, barely beat Massachusetts, and got plastered at Texas Tech 66-14 just one week ago. That's a swing of 100 points in 2 games. Is this the rock bottom moment for the once proud Aggies?

You'll never mistake me for a fan of Notre Dame, but I have to hand it to the Irish for their fight on the last drive against USC. The play that exemplified the determination embodied by the Irish was the 4th down play when Robby Parris held on while his head was being forcibly removed by Taylor Mays, and another USC defender attempted to force the rest of his body in an entirely different direction, twisting his knee awkwardly underneath him. It was painful to watch as he screamed in anguish, helmet off, collapsing into the turf. But he never let go of the ball. Only death would have separated him from that ball. The game meant that much to Notre Dame, and you have to feel bad for them to come up just a few yards short. What will be interesting is how they handle such a loss. In football and in life, handling adversity and failure shows a lot about our character and growth. Will we beat ourselves up, run and hide, cower in fear? Or will we fail well, learn from mistakes and get up off the mat to fight again? As a Christian, the grace of God is never more real as when I face failure or adversity, and I learn more about myself and grow in those times more than any other. The same can be true on the football field - young men learn something about themselves, get stretched and grow, and the camaraderie and community of their teammates can allow them to experience the freedom, forgiveness, and encouragement needed to move forward well.

We can expect more close games and more craziness over the remainder of the season - conference play is just hitting full steam and the playing field seems more level now than ever. As Ohio State and Kansas can attest, no in-conference game is a gimme; and as USC can vouch for, no lead is safe, no matter how stout your defense is. That's the 2009 college football season, and it's only warming up.

Week 7: Midseason Status Report

Roughly half of the Division 1-A teams have played six games already, making this week the official midpoint of the season. I thought it would be an appropriate time to give each conference, plus the national championship race, a status report and make a midseason prediction of a winner. It also gives me a chance to clean the slate a bit, as many of my preseason picks are, to put it lightly, laughably bad. I need a second chance. And being the author of this blog, I can give it. In blogging, you can make your own redemption; in life, it takes Jesus.

Here's the format: I'll give my take on each conference, separate contenders from pretenders and "nice try's" (teams who've already blew their chance), and make a new prediction.

SEC (My preseason pick: Florida)

Still the strongest conference in the land in spite of a downturn this year. Predictions by many (including me) that this is the year the Big 12 would pass the mighty SEC by were unfounded. In recent years, the SEC has had 4 or 5 teams in the nation's top 15; this year it's 3 (Florida, Bama, LSU). But no other conference can match that tally, so for now the SEC still reigns. Within a few weeks the divisional races could be decided, as Alabama and Florida are the clear favorites. Barring catastrophe, they should cruise. Running the table in the SEC is about as rare as finding a rabbit on the moon (8 times since 1992, when the conference expanded; not including SEC Championship games). But Alabama and Florida both should do it this year - Alabama's most threatening road game is at Auburn; Florida's at South Carolina. If this happens, it would be the scenario drooled over since major conference expansion begin in the early 90's: two undefeated teams meeting in a conference championship with a title shot on the line. Never happened before. Expect it to this year - and expect the hype surrounding the game to eclipse that of any regular season game before it.

Contenders: Alabama, Florida

Pretenders: LSU, Auburn, South Carolina

Nice Try: Mississippi, Georgia

My Midseason Pick: Florida

Big 12 (My preseason pick: Oklahoma State)

Last year is long gone. The Big 12 South featured 3 one-loss teams, all splitting hairs over who should represent the division in the championship game, and by reciprocation, the conference in the BCS championship. Not so this year. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State fell hard, leaving Texas to carry the flag. In the North, Nebraska is still somewhat under the radar but as good as anyone the conference has to offer. They should claim the division crown with ease. The South title might again be determined by this weekend's State Fair Special Feature in Dallas, though Oklahoma State is still lurking. The conference needed Colorado, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all to make strong showings for the Big 12 to surpass the SEC, but all have fallen short of expectation. Conference play has just gotten underway, with most teams only playing one game, so it's probably way too early to give an accurate forecast. But I'll try anyway.

Contenders: Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska

Pretenders: Oklahoma State, Kansas

Nice Try: Missouri, Texas Tech

My Midseason Pick: Nebraska (Huskers are for real and can match up with anyone the South can offer)

Pac Ten (My preseason pick: Oregon)

I love Oreo cookies. Double Stuf especially. And I love making a quad-stuf or sextuple-stuf, filling my mouth with Oreo creme, which stands alongside Krispy Kreme glaze as the most irresistible and tasty substances on earth. This year's Pac Ten reminds me of a sextuple-stuf Oreo: so much middle. USC and Oregon make up one chocolate cookie; Washington State the other. The rest is pretty much an indiscernible mess of equality. Last year I came up with my "Law of the Middling Pac Ten Teams", which stated that in any game between teams from the Pac Ten's middle, the home team will always win. I think there were only 2 or 3 exceptions all season. I'm about to enact that law again - all these teams are basically the same.

Contenders: USC, Oregon

Pretenders: Stanford, Oregon State

Nice Try: California, UCLA

My Midseason Pick: Oregon

Big Ten (My preaseason pick: Penn State)

Defense wins championships, and Ohio State, Iowa, and Penn State are the top teams for that very reason. We're about to fall into the "no one cares about the Big Ten at all" section of the season, with some boring football and no clear-cut national championship contender (though Ohio State and Iowa may beg to differ). Conference depth will mean lots of 3, 4, and 5 loss teams by the end of the year, and more bowl eligible teams than the conference can fill, but no noteworthy squad. Again.

Contenders: Ohio State, Iowa

Pretenders: Penn State, Michigan

Nice Try: Wisconsin, Illinois (yikes - they are TERRIBLE)

My Midseason Pick: Ohio State

Big East (My preseason pick: South Florida)

Big East game of the year: Thursday night when Cincinnati visits the Bulls of South Florida. This conference has been a pleasant surprise, with even those expected to be contenders for the conference crown having much better teams than expected. Add to that the fact that Syracuse is no longer a total doormat, and you have a year worth remembering in the Big East! But what has happened to Louisville, just 3 years removed from a BCS game?

Contenders: Cincinnati, South Florida, Pittsburgh, West Virginia

Pretenders: Too early to tell

Nice Try: Rutgers

My Midseason Pick: Cincinnati

ACC (My preseason pick: Clemson)

A tale of two cities. Or in this case, divisions. The Coastal division holds all the power, and even Virginia and Duke are looking frisky these days. The Atlantic - um, not so much. Will anyone finish stronger than 4-4? We all know of Florida State's troubles. N.C. State and Clemson haven't met their already-low expectations. Boston College is rebuilding. Maryland has lost to Middle Tennessee State two years straight. Wake Forest has been the division's most consistent team the past 3 seasons, but they're not about to turn any heads. And while we're here - can someone explain to me the reasoning behind the ACC's divisional setup? Coastal and Atlantic? How is that at all clear? Why not North and South? Is that too simple? North: BC, MD, VT, UVA, Wake, NCST. South: Duke, UNC, Clem, GT, Miami, FSU. Is that not better?

Contenders: Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)

Pretenders: Georgia Tech

Nice Try: North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, N.C. State

My Midseason Pick: Virginia Tech

Non-BCS Conferences (My preseason BCS party crasher: TCU)

What, you thought I'd go through them all? There's no way I have enough intelligent things to say, and the NCAA has already effectively lumped these programs together in a sub-class anyway. Boise State actually has an outside shot at a Championship Game appearance - they'd need to win out and hope for no more than one 1-loss major conference team. TCU has quietly creeped into the top-10, but haven't looked at all ready to crash the party.

Contenders (for BCS): Boise State

Pretenders: TCU

Nice Try: BYU, Utah

My Midseason BCS Party Crasher Pick: Boise State

National Championship Race (My preseason pick, and everyone else's: Florida)

The list of contenders will still be long, as late October and early November are the time in the season where the sand is sifted through the sieve. We know that the talk of "greatest season ever" and the expectation that there would be a few truly elite teams (Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma) and a bunch of good ones was baloney. You could argue that no team could be labeled "elite" right now, and what we have is a chunk of good teams and a lot of average ones. In other words, if the season would continue on its current course, it would be largely labeled a bust. We'll see what happens over the next 6 weeks.

Contenders: Florida, Alabama, Texas, USC, Oregon, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Ohio State

Pretenders: LSU, Cincinnati, Miami (FL), Iowa

Nice Try: California, Mississippi, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Penn State

My Midseason Pick: Florida (though they may have to beat Alabama twice to do it)

Well that took longer than expected, so we'll try to go rapid fire through this week's picks. As is customary, I lead with my Lions, though it's far from the best game of the week. You'll just have to deal with it. It's my blog.

1. Minnesota at Penn State

The Nittany Lions haven't allowed a first half TD all year, which is impressive no matter who you've played. And Penn State hasn't played anyone outside of Iowa. This is their first test against a team that could be labeled "average". Wideout Eric Decker will give the secondary fits, but the pass rush and strong run defense will offset the threat by making the Gopher's one-dimensional. Penn State traditionally struggles with spread offenses, so this will be close, but the Lions win.

Penn State 23, Minnesota 20

2. Texas vs. Oklahoma

Oddly enough, only once in the last 11 meetings has the outcome been decided by 7 points or less. It's a heated rivalry, but not a competitive one until the last 2 years. Oklahoma would love nothing more than to potentially spoil the season of their rival after theirs already has been. But even with Sam Bradford's return, the absence of Jermaine Gresham will continue to plague the Sooner offense. He brings a versatility and constant threat in the deep middle and the flats that no one else on their roster can match. As we've found out, the offense revolved around him; he kept defenses honest and gave opportunities for the backs and receivers to face single coverage and advantageous matchups. And I don't think Texas has shown the country their best stuff yet. It'll come this Saturday.

Texas 34, Oklahoma 28

3. USC at Notre Dame

USC's loss at Washington looks more and more like their usual hiccup rather than the symptoms of a deeper problem. Notre Dame's 4-1 record is deceiving, and the Irish get exposed as another one of the many average teams in the country.

USC 35, Notre Dame 17

4. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

When their offense is clicking, Georgia Tech is fun to watch. But for all the credit it rightly gets for being hard to defend, a superior defense can shut it down, and the Yellow Jackets have very little in the way of alternatives. Virginia Tech's defense is one that can do the job.

Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 20

5. Cincinnati at South Florida

The winner gets a huge leg up in the Big East race. South Florida has played very well in the absence of Matt Groethe, showing that their talent pool runs deep. Cincy has been cruising to this point, but their defense is susceptible to giving up points. And South Florida's D will be the best the Bearcats have faced thus far. I'm going with Cincy to ultimately win the conference crown, but be knocked off in Tampa on Thursday.

South Florida 27, Cincinnati 24

6. Arkansas at Florida

Arkansas has no upset magic here, even with Florida coming off an emotional victory. The Gators may come out sluggish, but they'll win going away.

Florida 38, Arkansas 17

7. Texas Tech at Nebraska

This may be a bigger test for Nebraska than the one at Missouri last week. The blackshirts will be stretched again - will they be able to hold for another week? My guess is yes, but I have a hunch that it'll be closer than expected - Texas Tech's defense can play and, with the exception of the debacle at Oklahoma last year, typically gets up for big games.

Nebraska 20, Texas Tech 16

8. Missouri at Oklahoma State

The Cowboys season gets even longer as they struggle to defend Blaine Gabbert and the Missouri offense, who have an extra bit of rest from playing on Thursday last week.

Missouri 33, Oklahoma State 24

9. South Carolina at Alabama

This is typically the point in the season where a surprising South Carolina team plummets to earth. Cue the free fall.

Alabama 28, South Carolina 7

10. Stanford at Arizona

Ugh, here we go with the splitting of hairs in the middle of the Pac Ten. If it weren't for a zany play at Washington, the Wildcats would be 4-1 right now. That, and the previously mentioned "Law of the Middling Pac Ten Teams" compels me to take Arizona. Though I like this Stanford team.

Arizona 27, Stanford 23

11. California at UCLA

Here comes another one. The difference here: Cal is mad, will be playing with something to prove, and has way more talent than UCLA. Or has Jeff Tedford lost his team? We'll see.

California 30, UCLA 20

12. Iowa at Wisconsin

You would think that Iowa would lose one of these close calls sometime. They've played their best away from home so far (35-3 over Iowa State, 21-10 over Penn State). But I think they're due, and Wisconsin's performance last week at Ohio State was impressive. In spite of the 31-13 score, the Badgers could have easily won that game. I mistakenly labeled Wisconsin as "exposed" last week, just seeing the score and moving on. The Buckeyes gained 200 yards less than the Badgers and managed 3 return TDs to pull out the win. In time of possession and yardage (Big Ten staples), Wisconsin dominated.

Wisconsin 24, Iowa 23

13. Pittsburgh at Rutgers

The Friday night Big East game no one watches. Rutgers can run the ball and could give Pitt's defense fits.

Rutgers 31, Pittsburgh 24

14. Wake Forest at Clemson

I guess I should pick an ACC game. In true Atlantic Division form, Clemson wins, drawing Wake into the morass of .500 or just below teams that comprise the division.

Clemson 27, Wake Forest 17

15. N.C. State at Boston College

I really want to pick Boise State-Tulsa to get an easy win, but I said I wasn't about that. And I already did yeoman's work on Florida-Arkansas. Somehow, this game makes the ABC 3:30 docket, but no one should be forced to watch the drivel that passes for ACC Atlantic football. Both teams come off of awful losses last week (BC: 48-14 to VT; NCST: 49-28 to Duke) and look to rebound. Home team gets the nod, and N.C. State's lone quality win - over Pitt - looks more and more like a fluke. They're about to lock up the award for the silliest sight on the WITTPWLLN - they'll crest at #10 in 2 weeks.

Boston College 21, N.C. State 13

Next up: another Saturday recap. Can't get more exciting than that!