I'm heavily leaning toward the latter, and not because I'm trying to save face and paint my predicting ability in a good light. A friend tweeted a little while back that the '09 college football season is starting to look a lot like the '07 campaign. Upset-filled, completely unpredictable, constantly changing week to week. That was the year a 2 loss LSU team claimed the national championship, after at least a dozen teams had very real shots at it. My friend is right - this season may be a bit tamer, but no less unpredictable and constantly changing. And that is the nature of college football in the 21st century. But why? Glad you asked - let's have a look at my 7 reasons why college football is so unpredictable.
Reason 1: Age
How easy it is to forget that these are 18-21 year olds - kids essentially - stepping out in front of tens of thousands of people, all of whom seem to know more and more about them and the game than ever before. That's what happens when you have a 24/7 sports culture. The pressure and scrutiny these kids are under is higher than ever. How can these young men be expected to handle it all? Essentially, this is the reason - the other 6 on the list are all in some way tied to the age and maturity factor.
Reason 2: Football is a Complex Game
Have you seen a college playbook lately? Neither have I, but I imagine it's about as thick as a phone book. Lots to remember. And lots of parts that have to work together in order for plays to come together, both offensively and defensively. If one of the 11 men miss their assignment, it could be disaster, on any play. And they have 20 hours a week to practice. Heck, even the ball itself is complex - the official term for a football's shape is "prolate spheroid". Any game played with a ball shaped like something you've never heard of is bound to be unpredictable.
Reason 3: Clutter
Of the mind, that is. These guys juggle classes, assignments, girlfriends, social activities, crazy fans leaving nasty texts, court appearances, temptations from boosters wanting to give them freebies, family, becoming a mature adult, etc., etc. You can't expect players to have the same state of mind week to week. Distractions and what goes on in the life of a player off the field has a far greater impact on what happens on the field than we realize.
Reason 4: False Confidence (see also, Houston Cougars, circa 2009)
Sometimes people who aren't accustomed to success can't handle it when they get it. Cockiness sets in, work ethic and preparation declines, and suddenly you have upsets.
Reason 5: Momentum
Momentum is a funny thing. Anyone who's played sports or even been to a major sporting event will emphatically attest to it's reality. But what is it exactly? How does it work? It's quite mysterious. You can't touch it, can't see it, can't use any of your 5 senses to detect it, yet it's unmistakably there. Kind of like information or love - just because it's not visible doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Incidentally, this is one of the reasons why it's easy to believe in God. When someone argues that they can't believe in God because they can't see or touch Him, they make an illogical and inconsistent statement. Everyone everywhere believes in things they can't see or touch every single day of their lives. They believe that love exists. Or momentum. You might see affects of these things, but they themselves aren't visible or tangible, just like God. Bet you didn't expect a slap of philosophy in the face in a college football column! Anyway, momentum is real and it has profound impacts on games every week. An underdog grabs (um - no, that implies tangibility, I'm not sure what word to use...) momentum and watch out!
Reason 6: Home field
No explanation required - some places are just tough to play and you're out of your comfort zone on the road.
Reason 7: Familiarity
This applies mostly to conference play. When you play the same teams year after year, you get to know them, especially when coaching staffs stay consistent. This is probably why Iowa beats Penn State all the time. Familiarity breeds contempt, and it also breeds unpredictable results. This is also true in games between teams who overlap in recruiting turf. South Florida's win over Florida State was fueled by the motivation of beating the power school who overlooked them.
Add these things up, and you get craziness. It's part of what makes college football so fun to follow. Week 6, here we come! I hope to do better this week, but chances are it won't happen.
1. Florida at LSU
Another week of guessing whether a Heisman winner will play. Last week it was Sam Bradford, this week Tim Tebow. Certainly makes a prediction difficult. Will he play? Will it matter? If he plays, at what percentage will he be, physically and mentally? I'm inclined to believe that Tebow will play, and also inclined to believe that it won't matter much even if he doesn't. Of course, that was my take last week, and that didn't end well. I'm still not buying LSU as a contender, even after winning at Georgia. They look too much like Notre Dame - a bunch of close wins that are hard to get excited about. They have the enormous advantage of playing in one of the greatest home environments in football, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Certainly if Tebow plays at 100% it won't be. He's too poised to get rattled by the Tiger Stadium crowd. Neither is the Florida defense, who won't have to deal with the deafening pre-snap noise. In the end, I think the Gator defense will win the day, no matter who plays QB. Jordan Jefferson has been solid enough to be invisible for LSU, but he will be hard pressed not to return to last year's erratic form against Florida.
Florida 23, LSU 17
2. Alabama at Mississippi
The other SEC showdown of the week goes to the Tide, who I still believe has been the best team out there this year. It's the biggest game in Oxford in quite some time, but the fans will go back to the Grove disappointed. Alabama's bruising defense will stifle Jevan Snead and the Tide offense will do enough to get by. Expect a close game that turns on a big defensive play in the second half.
Alabama 20, Mississippi 13
3. Nebraska at Missouri
The weekend starts with a tilt between two underrated Big 12 North teams. Nebraska may be the most underrated team out there, with their only blemish being a one point loss at Virginia Tech - one of the tougher places to win in the country. The Husker defense has been tremendous, but faces it's toughest test to date in stopping Blaine Gabbert and Missouri. On the other side of the ball, Zac Lee also faces his toughest test, though Missouri's defense isn't going to strike fear into many. It's a risky pick, but I'll go with Nebraska - the defense will hamper any Heisman hopes Gabbert has and the Husker offense will do enough to win.
Nebraska 31, Missouri 23
4. Georgia at Tennessee
Lane Kiffin has yet to produce the sort of substance to back up his grandiose talk, and an angry Georgia team isn't the likely spot where he'll start. Tennessee has the defense to slow down Georgia, but not the offense to go with it. Rennie Curran has a big day for the Bulldogs as they take a bit of frustration out on the Vols. Road teams seem to have success in this series too.
Georgia 24, Tennessee 13
5. Wisconsin at Ohio State
An undefeated Big Ten team 5 weeks into the season that doesn't reside in the top 25? My, how times have changed. Wisconsin certainly would enter the rankings if they won in Columbus, but that's unlikely. Scott Tolzien will find the going much tougher against Ohio State's stingy defense, and the Badger offense could be rendered sluggish and inept. Since the 4th quarter debacle against Navy, Ohio State has allowed just 3 meaningful touchdowns (the one on the last play against Indiana doesn't count), and one of those was USC scoring on a drive that started inside the 5. This defense hasn't gotten its due yet, and this game could imprint them into the national conscience.
Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 6
6. Michigan at Iowa
The Big Ten's other marquee matchup of the weekend lost luster last week when Michigan fell and Iowa limped to a 3 point win over the Sun Belt's finest. The Wolverines haven't looked good in Big Ten play thus far, in spite of Tate Forcier's fourth quarter heroics. They'll need more of those than he can deliver here. Iowa wins the Iowa way - unspectacular but effective. And about as exciting as driving across the state in the middle of the night.
Iowa 27, Michigan 20
7. Oregon at UCLA
The health of Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli places the continuing of their recent tear in serious jeopardy. UCLA probably isn't as strong a team as Oregon, but I don't like how putrid Oregon looked (no, not the uniforms) in their first road game of the year. They'll undoubtedly be better here, but I think Kevin Craft manages the Bruins to a minor upset.
UCLA 22, Oregon 20
8. Stanford at Oregon State
If only time could stop now for Stanford. There they stand, perched proudly atop the Pac Ten's football standings, a place they're not likely to hold for much longer. Or much past this week for that matter. As expected, Oregon State started their quiet run to the top third of the Pac Ten standings with a good road win at Arizona State, and they'll handle the Cardinal in Corvallis this week. Don't be surprised when they end up third in the conference at the end of the season.
Oregon State 27, Stanford 24
9. Georgia Tech at Florida State
Does no one recognize that what is happening now with Bobby Bowden is exactly what happened with Joe Paterno 5 years ago? People decrying him, saying he can't coach anymore, that he's lost touch, that the program is a shell of its former self, a movement afoot to force him out. All the same. Look, the man can still coach. He hasn't won over 350 games and suddenly forgotten how football works. Look at what happened with Paterno - the program rebounded, did some evolving, and now is one of the ten winningest programs of the last 4 years. The situation at Florida State could turn out exactly the same. Let Bobby alone, like Paterno he's earned the right to decide when to leave. He'll turn the ship around before he does. Just not this week. The Seminoles have some big kinks to work out, and the schedule tossing them a strange offense this week does them no favors.
Georgia Tech 28, Florida State 25
10. Boston College at Virginia Tech
Sorry Boston College, you're not beating Virginia Tech in Lane Stadium this time around. You've had a nice little run though. Hope you can still make a bowl!
Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 14
11. Auburn at Arkansas
Auburn's had their week in the sun, becoming the toast of the college football world for a time. They've had an impressive start, especially on offense, but I think their success is more 15 minutes of fame than anything lasting. Not this season. Like Wisconsin, their great start will stop this week and they'll fade into the middle tier of their conference. In a shootout, Arkansas finally gets their upset.
Arkansas 42, Auburn 35
12. Connecticut at Pittsburgh
Pitt rolls on, they're just better than UConn. And like I said in an earlier post, they don't show the signs of former Panther teams who would inexplicably lay an egg in a week you'd least expect them to. They seem more mature and focused this year.
Pittsburgh 34, Connecticut 20
13. Baylor at Oklahoma
In years past Oklahoma would look past a game like this to the Red River Shootout on the horizon. Not this year. This team has been more affected by injury than any other, and they know now that any game is loseable. Major injuries can have the effect of galvanizing a team and producing a narrow focus, and I think that will carry the Sooners past a dangerous Baylor team.
Oklahoma 41, Baylor 24
14. Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
Arkansas exposed Texas A&M badly last week, and even without the services of Dez Bryant, who was ruled ineligible for the season this week, Oklahoma State is too much for the Aggie defense.
Oklahoma State 38, Texas A&M 28
15. TCU at Air Force
Dangerous game for TCU. Air Force may be able to dent TCU's defense with their relentless running attack, and playing in Colorado Springs is never easy. The Horned Frogs survive a scare and continue their pursuit of that elusive BCS berth.
TCU 23, Air Force 20
Next up: another Saturday recap and hopefully some better results. Maybe some more philosophy or theology too!
No comments:
Post a Comment