1. Penn State at Illinois
Two years ago Penn State was ambushed by Arrelious Benn and the Illini, who became the darling of the Big Ten with their run to the Rose Bowl. My, how times have changed in Champaign. The Illini, with much the same personnel, can't seem to figure out where exactly the end zone is on the field. They could be the perfect remedy for a Penn State team who played an awful game last week at home, a game that exposed some serious weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball. Their offensive line has got to stay engaged in their blocks to prevent the tipped balls that led to several of Clark's INT's last week, and the receivers have to find ways to get open. The defense held strong last week, even with short fields much of the time, and they'll be able to smother the pitiful Illinois offense. Penn State bounces back with a good road win.
Penn State 24, Illinois 10
2. Oklahoma at Miami (FL)
If only the Oklahoma coaching staff would cooperate with we who make our picks mid-week. The jury is still out on the return of Sam Bradford this week. My hunch is that he'll play, but I'm not sure it will matter a whole lot. Miami will play better than it did last week, especially Jacory Harris, but offense is not the concern area for them; defense is. The Hurricane D played well against Georgia Tech in stopping the flexbone, but allowed 34 to Florida State (who managed 19 against Jacksonville State and 7 against South Florida) and 31 to Virginia Tech. Oklahoma's offense, even behind Landry Jones, is better than both those units. With Sam Bradford, the separation increases. I expect Miami to move the ball fairly well, but they won't keep up with the Sooners.
Oklahoma 38, Miami (FL) 24
3. USC at California
The sheen is off this one after Cal was slaughtered at Oregon, and USC suddenly looks very ordinary. I like Cal's offense to rebound and score like they ought to. USC's offense is a different story. The out-of-sync passing game trickles down to the run, as defenses can load the box to stop the sextuplet of tailbacks. Perhaps trotting out so many backs has hurt more than helped too - no one can get into a rhythm, something runningbacks need to be productive. The Trojans lose here and have a huge hole to climb out of if they want to re-enter the Pac Ten race.
California 24, USC 20
4. UCLA at Stanford
Who'd have thought the day would come so quickly when UCLA would have a 2 game lead on crosstown rival USC in the Pac Ten standings in early October? Yet it could come Saturday. A USC loss and a UCLA win would give the Bruins a 2 game head start in the loss column. To do it, they need to get by a tough Stanford team who looks like they can be a thorn in the sides of the Pac Ten contenders. UCLA gets a late field goal to win.
UCLA 20, Stanford 19
5. LSU at Georgia
LSU at #4 might be the most skewed ranking all season. The Tigers have won, but barely, against what should be vastly inferior opponents, and have done nothing to deserve a top 15, let alone top 5 ranking. Joe Cox (who I a few weeks ago mistakenly labeled incapable of running the show) and the Georgia offense will roll through LSU and expose the overrated Tigers for who they really are.
Georgia 41, LSU 28
6. Texas A&M at Arkansas
The Aggies are quietly 3-0 but haven't played anyone of consequence yet. Arkansas is a team of consequence.
Arkansas 42, Texas A&M 27
7. Auburn at Tennessee
For all of Gene Chizik's reported defensive wizardry, Auburn's defense has been quite average. Luckily for them, their offense has soared. The Tigers deserve to be ranked (and probably higher than nickname-brethren LSU), but face a tough road trip at the Volunteers Saturday night. It marks the Tigers first road game this season, and it's to a tough, large stadium at night. The Tennessee defense, clearly the stronger of the Vols 2 units, will find a way to slow Auburn down, and the Vol offense will be able to move the ball against the Auburn D. Turnovers could end up deciding the game, and if Tennessee can protect the ball they should win.
Tennessee 23, Auburn 20
8. Wisconsin at Minnesota
Ah, Big Ten trophy games. Every conference has trophy games, but the Big Ten’s are by far the most unique, with such awards as the “Old Oaken Bucket” and the “Old Brass Spittoon”. The conference’s trophy contests kicked off last week when Ohio State and Illinois played for the Illibuck trophy, which is a large wooden turtle. If you were to put all living things on a spectrum, apparently a turtle is exactly in the center between a warrior chief and a poisonous nut. Seems about right. Or at least that’s the most reasonable explanation for why those 2 schools play for a wooden turtle. This game’s trophy, Paul Bunyan’s Axe, makes much more sense. As the story goes, in 1892 the axe was found resting on a rock directly in the center of the St. Croix River, which forms a border between the two states. Both states claimed the artifact as their own, and not surprisingly due to the icy relationships between the governments of the two at the time, a small dispute was touched off. Fourteen Minnesotans and eight Wisconsinites died in the 2 day “Bunyan War”, known outside the region as the “War of the Long ‘O’”. Thankfully, the state legislatures came to their senses and ended the war peacefully, with the agreement that the winner of the annual football game between the two states’ public universities would hold the axe for that year.
Ok, so that's a complete fabrication, but don't you wish it were true?
Minnesota 26, Wisconsin 24
9. Michigan at Michigan State
Another Big Ten trophy game related to Paul Bunyan, mythological hero of the Midwest. How did this Easter Bunny-like fable manage to get his name on 2 trophies? Couldn't they devote one to Babe the Blue Ox, Bunyan's bovine companion? This one is less impressive than a six-foot axe, though more formidable - it totals 9 feet tall. Apparently they wanted a statue only Bunyan himself could lift. The Wolverines have been cruising along nicely, but like Auburn, plays their first road game of the year this week, also in a hostile environment. If their close call with Indiana is any indication, their 4-0 ranking hides a team that still has a long way to go. Michigan State's not going to scare them, not with their paltry 1-3 start, but the Spartans will have emotion to go with their home-field advantage, and will be playing hungry. A win could save their season. When in doubt, go with the hungrier team.
Michigan State 31, Michigan 24
10. Colorado at West Virginia
Dan Hawkins leads his disappointing Buffaloes to West Virginia, still smarting from their loss to Auburn in a game they should have won. West Virginia, as with the rest of the Big East, is better than expected and should handle Colorado easily.
West Virginia 35, Colorado 20
11. Pittsburgh at Louisville
Pitt looks to bounce back from their tough loss at N.C. State. The defense, considered to be the team's strong suit before the year began, could use some work, and Louisville's offense might provide the sort of practice squad they need. Pitt is clearly the stronger team and will win as long as they don't beat themselves. That might have characterized them in the past, but this year's version of the Panthers doesn't resemble that sort of team.
Pittsburgh 34, Louisville 26
12. Washington at Notre Dame
The Huskies stay in the top 25 was expectedly short lived, though their takedown of USC was glorious. They had their day for this season, and their fall will continue in South Bend. The fall of the Irish will have to wait at least one more week. Jimmy Clausen vs. Jake Locker is one of the more underrated QB matchups all season.
Notre Dame 31, Washington 21
13. Florida State at Boston College
Will the real Florida State please stand up? The Seminoles went from scoring 54 at BYU (who surrendered just 13 to Oklahoma) to scoring 7 at home against South Florida. Yes, the Bulls were geeked up for that game, as many of South Florida's recruits were local guys who weren't given a shot at FSU, but 7 points is pathetic. In Florida State's favor, Boston College isn't nearly the team they've been in the past half-decade. And the Seminoles best game this season, by far, was played on the road.
Florida State 28, Boston College 27
14. Houston at UTEP
Trap alert for Houston! UTEP was smoked 64-7 against Texas last week, and could easily be overlooked by the Cougars, who are riding high in the national spotlight as the non-BCS team of the week. Their emotional victory over Texas Tech, which followed a shocking and hard-earned road win at Oklahoma State, could leave them unmotivated and expecting a breather. It happens all the time, even in the NFL. And if it can happen to the pro's, it can happen to a Conference USA team unaccustomed to dealing with such loftly success. Houston will come out very slow and fall behind the Miners, only to wake up at halftime and pull out a too-close-for-comfort victory.
Houston 35, UTEP 31
15. Oregon State at Arizona State
The typical Oregon State season is unfolding: a few early season losses, coupled with unspectacular wins, makes everyone sleep on them until they're suddenly in the thick of the Pac Ten race. They visit Tempe as underdogs in the type of game that can propel them into another solid year. They catch Arizona State at the right time too, coming off a heartbreaking cross-country road loss.
Oregon State 24, Arizona State 21
Next: no Saturday post, as I'll be somewhere deep in Pennsylvania Amish country on a retreat, away from TV, internet, and the English language. I'll be back next Wednesday with another week of failed guesses and off-the-mark humor attempts.
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