So what I'd like to do this week is to label 8 teams who are overrated and 8 who are underrated. Why 8? It just feels right. Let me add a few disclaimers before getting to the lists, so you don't go ape when you see certain teams included. I'm only evaluating teams who are either ranked or receiving votes in the polls. This is consistent with the word "rated" found in each of the parent words. I'm also evaluating it solely on whether a team is worthy of their ranking or deserves to be higher or lower.
Overrated
Texas: The Longhorns have won rather comfortably, but something seems missing. They don't have the Wow factor you'd like to see from a #2 team with one of college football's great QB's. They're likely to turn on the afterburners sooner or later, so this one could look rather silly in a few weeks.
Penn State: Yes, my Nittany Lions are on the overrated list. Maybe I'm not such a homer after all. Don't get me wrong, I love the fact that they're comfortably in the top 5 right now, but I don't think it's deserved. The offensive line is questionable and they don't have the top gear last year's team did.
LSU: The Tigers are possibly the most undeserving top 10 team. They haven't done anything to impress and they still have offensive issues. Against inferior competition, they've only averaged 162 passing yards and 325 total, numbers which ought to be much higher right now.
USC: Didn't drop far enough. Time will tell whether the Washington loss was their typical swoon to an unranked conference foe or a harbinger of hard times. My guess is the latter. They've scored less than 20 in two straight (even LSU scored 31 @ the Huskies), and they've got a brutal mid-season schedule with road games at Cal, Notre Dame, and Oregon.
Oklahoma State: Reports of national championship chances were greatly overestimated.
Houston: I did a double-take when I saw them in the top 25. Sure, they beat Okie State, but let's not go crazy. Their defense will invariably let them down, probably as early as this weekend.
North Carolina: Creeping along at 3-0, but they don't have the feel of a top 25 team. Needed a penalty-generated safety to squeak by UConn.
Washington: This week's Houston, slipping into the top 25 after beating an overrated team. This team did go 0-12 last season, remember? They'll have a good season, but they'll lose Saturday and won't see the top 25 again.
Underrated
Alabama: As impressive as anyone so far. The Tide hasn't missed a beat from last year, only now they have a year of experience under their belts and a hunger that losing their last 2 games produced. You know they are licking their chops at the potential of another matchup with Florida in the SEC Championship.
California: Firepower on offense and a coach who needs to prove he can produce a top-flight team after seasons of promise that ended in disappointment. But will the road woes persist this year?
Oklahoma: I'm going to go ahead and call the BYU game a fluke. When Bradford returns, the Sooners will return to form and become the team to beat in the Big 12.
Cincinnati: Might have the best set of road wins in the country (@ Rutgers, @ Oregon State). Offense is as good as anyone in the country, but the name on the jersey keeps them from the top 10.
Nebraska: Every bit as good as a Virginia Tech team who hung with Alabama. The distance they fell after a tough loss was too far.
Pittsburgh: Panthers have done everything they can to be ranked right now, yet haven't been given the proper respect. They'll challenge Cincy for the crown in a rising Big East conference.
Iowa: They've gotten too much negative publicity for their escape against Northern Iowa. This team is as tough and disciplined as last year's, and still have a great shot at winning the Big Ten.
South Florida: This applies to the team that played the first 3 games of the season, with Matt Groethe at the helm. Without him, their spot in the "also receiving votes" category is about right.
On to the games. I'm going to go ahead and label this weekend "Upset Saturday". There are lots of potential upsets on the board, and this is the week when conference play begins in earnest. Conference play really opens the door to upsets, as teams begin playing opponents who are familiar with them on a weekly basis. Last year the last Saturday in September was when we saw Ole Miss take down Florida in a day full of head-turners.
1. Iowa at Penn State
So I've gotten you all primed and ready with my mention of Penn State as overrated and Iowa as underrated, then dropped my "Upset Saturday" prediction upon you. Will I go all the way and take Iowa to win its 7th of 8 vs. the Nittany Lions? In short, no. Upset Saturday won't extend to Happy Valley, though this game could turn out to be very close. Iowa does seem to have Penn State's number, but avenging last year's heartbreaking defeat will be too heavy on the minds of the Lions. Penn State's defense, which couldn't stop Ricky Stanzi and the Hawkeye passing game last year, is better than the stout unit from a year ago, and Iowa is without a back like Shonn Greene to soften things up for Stanzi. The platoon of Hawkeye backs will be swallowed by the Penn State front seven, and the resulting one-dimensional offense will struggle. That, and playing at night in Beaver Stadium essentially gives the Lions a 7-10 point head start.
Penn State 24, Iowa 13
2. Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech
Jacory Harris faces his toughest test yet as surging Miami visits hostile Lane Stadium. The Hokies are very good, especially on defense, but are coming off an exhausting, emotional win. It's hard to get up the next week after those. And Miami is better than Nebraska, however improved the Huskers might be. The Jacory Harris bandwagon gets larger, and Miami sets itself up for a suddenly mammoth game in south Florida against Oklahoma.
Miami (FL) 27, Virginia Tech 21
3. California at Oregon
I labeled Cal as underrated, but I'm still not totally sold on them. A win here would move them into true national championship contender status, but it won't be easy. Oregon has righted the ship after their disastrous trip to Boise, and could put that loss even further in the rear view by beating a top 10 team. They're a strong home team, and Cal has a habit of losing these sorts of games.
Oregon 34, California 31
4. Mississippi at South Carolina
Ole Miss has crept into the top 5 without doing a whole lot, and this trip to a rabid stadium will be their first true test. Are they truly a contender, or is it all hype? I touted them as more hype than substance before the season began, and I'll put my money where my mouth is with this pick. The Gamecocks defense frustrates Jevan Snead and Spurrier coaxes enough offense out of his squad to make this the first major Thursday night upset of the year.
South Carolina 23, Mississippi 20
5. South Florida at Florida State
The loss of Matt Groethe will be too much for South Florida, who have circled this game for a long, long time. Too bad, a healthy Groethe would have made it a compelling show.
Florida State 35, South Florida 20
6. North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech should be concerned about a porous defense that allowed Miami to move the ball at will and allowed Clemson to jump back into a game they never should have been in. North Carolina has the talent to give the Yellow Jackets trouble, but they did struggle to score against the only other BCS conference opponent they've played so far. I think Georgia Tech will get it done with an extra few days to rest and a chip on their shoulder.
Georgia Tech 28, North Carolina 21
7. TCU at Clemson
I pegged TCU as my BCS buster for the year, but I'm having some second thoughts. They've been unfocused at times and susceptible to big passing plays, which Clemson could exploit. Clemson's offense could be the toughest the Horned Frogs face all season, and definitely will be the quickest - C.J. Spiller being the main reason for that. But TCU's defense, apart from a few lapses, has been as strong as any so far. They should be able to handle Clemson's explosiveness. This is the toughest game for me to pick this week, as evidenced by my rambling and general avoidance of making a decision. I...just...can't...figure...it...out. The ol' hamster turning the wheel inside my brain is about to have a heart attack. Grr...going with Clemson because their defense could smother a somewhat pedestrian TCU offense. WHEW - that was tough.
Clemson 19, TCU 17
8. Texas Tech at Houston
Hearkening back to the days of the Southwest Conference, a home game for Houston will be televised nationally. In the late 80's and early 90's, when the SWC fuse burned out, Houston ran the run-n-shoot offense to perfection, rolling up scores in the 70's routinely. This version of the Cougars high-powered display won't score quite that many, but they can rack them up too. Problem is, they don't have a defense to accompany it, and that's why Texas Tech will win - behind a potent, pass-happy offense of their own.
Texas Tech 48, Houston 42
9. Arizona State at Georgia
Georgia is clearly the better team here, but the Bulldogs have played some long games against 3 above-average opponents. How much steam do they have left? You'd think they need a cupcake game in there somewhere just to catch their breath. I'm not sure their offense can keep up the frenetic pace it's set the past 2 weeks. And their defense's lack of stopping South Carolina and Arkansas, not exactly the 1989 Buffalo Bills, is concerning. I don't see Arizona State waltzing into Athens and pulling the upset, but this one will be much much closer than expected.
Georgia 34, Arizona State 31
10. Washington at Stanford
As mentioned earlier, Washington's stay in the top 25 won't last long. They're due for a letdown after such a big victory, and Stanford is the type of steady, well-coached, smart team you don't want to play in that situation.
Stanford 23, Washington 13
11. Illinois at Ohio State
The magic of 2007, when Illinois left Ohio Stadium with a monumental upset victory, has long since faded. This Illinois team is a far cry from that one, and Ohio State looks like they're getting better every week.
Ohio State 31, Illinois 13
12. Arkansas at Alabama
Defense wins, and Alabama's might be the best there is in college football. Mitch Mustain won't scare them. Alabama won a lot of games last year with a smothering defense and an offense that did enough when it mattered, and I think this game could be much like that.
Alabama 27, Arkansas 10
13. Southern Mississippi at Kansas
I've read the stats that show that a) Kansas has a potent passing game, and b) Southern Miss has a holey secondary (or maybe "holy" would be better - the word means "set apart", and the Southern Miss secondary has been set apart from opposing receivers by at least 5 yards. HA HA HA! How about that corny theology-speak joke!). But I have no problem overlooking these numbers. I think Southern Miss beats Kansas, for no other reason that they're Southern Miss and scaring or knocking off big-conference powers is what they do. They've done it for over 15 years now, no reason to stop! Call this my blind faith pick of the week. (ANOTHER ONE! ROTFL!)
Southern Mississippi 35, Kansas 27
14. Pittsburgh at N.C. State
As you'll soon see in the WITTPWLLN feature, I thought N.C. State would race out of the gate with a soft schedule and what appeared to be winnable games at home against South Carolina and Pitt in September. Wrong. The Wolfpack managed a field goal against South Carolina, and games against Pitt are looking less and less winnable by the week. The Panthers roll on.
Pittsburgh 31, N.C. State 24
15. Michigan State at Wisconsin
The Spartans look to right the ship after two tough losses. They have the defense to stop a slow, grinding Wisconsin offense. Unlike previous Michigan State teams, Mark D'Antonio won't let the Spartans abandon their season, and a good win against a solid team in a tough environment will set Michigan State back on track.
Michigan State 20, Wisconsin 17
Bonus Pick! Adding credence to my "Upset Saturday" claim, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that one of the following four teams will lose this weekend in a seismic upset, in order of probability. I'm not brazen enough to make any of these part of the 15, but I'm willing to go this far.
LSU (@ Miss. St.)
Michigan (vs. Indiana)
Cincinnati (vs. Fresno St.)
Florida (@ Kentucky)
Next: check back Saturday late-night for some recap action, and to laugh mockingly at how my bold claims of an upset-filled weekend have resulted in my being red-faced and sullen.
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