You can't expect to go to a truck stop for a steak dinner and have it come close to the same cut of meat as in a bona fide steakhouse, where you'd pay $35, get an incredible steak and some real quality sides too. Sauteed mushrooms, crisp green beans, onion straws. That's what I'm talking about!
The truck stop steak dinner is what I think of this weekend's college football slate. You have USC-Ohio State, which certainly looks like a Ruth's Chris Filet. But don't be deceived by the fancy advertising and the classic uniforms, it's a truck stop steak. Lots of gristle and not much taste, and you'll probably hope it's done well before it actually is. That one could be a bloodbath. Beyond that - the sides - you have Notre Dame-Michigan, which in most years would be a juicy plate of mushrooms sauteed in rich butter, but this year, even with their apparent resurgence, doesn't get much past lukewarm cauliflower. The rest of the games are even less appealing. Two conference games (S. Car-UGa and Clemson-GT) that would be run of the mill affairs if they were played in the middle of conference play in October, and a slew of matchups between lower class BCS schools and some also-rans making a death march to play a power program. Perhaps things will turn out more exciting than it looks, but it could be a pretty dull weekend.
1) USC at Ohio State
Many coaches, Joe Paterno (the greatest of them all) included, consider the week between games 1 and 2 on your schedule the time where your football team ought to make it's biggest improvement. Ohio State fans better hope their Buckeyes make one huge leap. I know Navy is hard to defend because you rarely see that style of offense, but it would appear that the Buckeyes poor run defense wasn't just due to a funky offense. They were gashed up the middle, right in the heart of the defense, and that points to a problem that goes well beyond just stopping the option. That's a problem of toughness, of will, and of talent. Good defenses will stop people from charging right through their center - that's why spread offenses have become so popular, they use the edges to create advantages because the middle of the field is the hardest place to gain yardage. The fact that USC will start a true freshman making his second start in a hostile environment won't matter. The Trojans essentially bring 6 starting tailbacks to Columbus, and Matt Barkley may not need to throw more than 10 passes. If Ohio State does bring extra defenders to the middle to shore up their weak spot, USC's backs have the speed to hit the corner and run around the extra bodies. This could get ugly.
USC 31, Ohio State 13
2) Notre Dame at Michigan
Two of the most surprisingly impressive teams from last week. One game isn't enough to tell just how good these two are, but it seems like we could look back at the end of the season and realize that this was actually a game between 2 top-15 teams. My hunch is that Michigan still has bugs to work out, particularly on offense, while Notre Dame looks to be more well-oiled. Especially impressive last week was their defense, which shut out a pretty good Nevada offense. They'll keep Michigan's QB troika frustrated.
Notre Dame 24, Michigan 20
3) Clemson at Georgia Tech
Clemson has a quick and talented defense, but are they disciplined enough to stop the flexbone? Chances are they're not, but I'm taking the Tigers anyway. Georgia Tech laid some eggs last season in spite of their strong year, and Thursday night games typically turn out vastly different than expected. Something about the short week of preparation tends to produce upsets.
Clemson 28, Georgia Tech 20
4) South Carolina at Georgia
Unlike last week, seven points won't be nearly enough to cut it for the Gamecocks. I think Georgia has a good year in them - their defense was close to shutting down Oklahoma State's firepower, and the offense eventually will come around behind Joe Cox.
Georgia 27, South Carolina 10
5) Syracuse at Penn State
I like most of what I saw last week from Penn State, but the offensive line could be the difference between a good season and a legendary one. They struggled to open holes for the backs, which could haunt them through the Big Ten season. Syracuse, however, is a different story. We saw that Greg Paulus is a natural leader, and he'll keep this game closer than expected, but the talent gap between the two schools is too much for the Orange. Penn State opens up a small halftime lead with a big third quarter and wins going away.
Penn State 41, Syracuse 14
6) Purdue at Oregon
Oregon will put last week behind them and look to move on quickly. Even without LaGarrette Blount they're too much for Purdue, who will find Autzen Stadium a pretty rude place to visit. The Boilermakers gave up 31 to a bad Toledo team and will be hard pressed to keep Oregon to the same number.
Oregon 42, Purdue 24
7) North Carolina at Connecticut
The atmosphere at Rentchler Field in Hartford won't quite be the same as that of a Final Four game, even though the scoreboard will feature the names of these basketball titans. Some fans may actually even be surprised that these schools can play football as well as they do. This could be a tricky road game for the Tar Heels and Butch Davis, who still has yet to prove to me that he can be a top-level coach, but I think North Carolina will come through. They have more talent and experience and should get the ACC's first nonconference win over a 1-A school.
North Carolina 21, Connecticut 16
8) Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Another tricky road game for a program trying to make the leap into the nation's elite. Buffalo has arguably the best young coach in the nation in Turner Gill, and are coming of a road win over UTEP that's more impressive than it looks on paper. I think it will be close, and Buffalo has made a living the past 2 years of eking out close victories.
Buffalo 30, Pittsburgh 27
9) Iowa at Iowa State
Iowa is another team that had better hope the week one to week two improvement is vast. Iowa State could be smelling blood in this rivalry game. But they may or may not actually be more talented than Northern Iowa. The Hawkeyes pull through and show that last week was just growing pains.
Iowa 24, Iowa State 14
10) Stanford at Wake Forest
An early East Coast start will be too much for the plucky Cardinal in this contest between evenly matched teams.
Wake Forest 23, Stanford 17
11) UCLA at Tennessee
It was Western Kentucky, but did you see the final stats from Tennessee's game last week? A 500 yard advantage in total offense, and a 63-7 beatdown? This is not the same Tennessee as last year. They appear to be making strides quicker than UCLA, who is employing a similar rebuilding strategy - controversial coach who can recruit like crazy, getting that young talent on the field early and often. And playing at home in front of 105,000 doesn't hurt either.
Tennessee 31, UCLA 21
12) TCU at Virginia
TCU is a lot better than William & Mary.
TCU 31, Virginia 10
13) Houston at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State's defense will face a stiffer test from Case Keenum and Houston than they did from Joe Cox and Georgia last week. But by the same token, their own offense will face a much, much lighter opponent.
Oklahoma State 52, Houston 28
14) East Carolina at West Virginia
It's a dangerous game again for WVU, but I think they'll get revenge for last year's embarrassing loss to the Pirates. The Mountaineer crowd will be hungry and Noel Devine will find space to operate in.
West Virginia 27, East Carolina 20
15) Air Force at Minnesota
Minnesota gets to open a new stadium against a team that rang up 72 last week. The lesson we seem to be learning, both last season and now at the start of this one, is this: don't mess with the Mountain West. Oklahoma and Colorado are already major conference foes who've fallen at the hands of the mighty Mountain West. Will it happen again? It's hard to imagine that the Gophers will drop this one in front of fans who have waited for this day to come for decades, but we saw last week what happens when you mix the option offense with a Big Ten defense. Minnesota only has a week to get ready - Ohio State had all summer - amidst the fanfare surrounding the opening of their new stadium. Something tells me they won't quite be fully prepared.
Air Force 34, Minnesota 31
Next Week: hopefully a nice 11-4 or 12-3 in the progress report, more silliness in the WITTPWLLN, and a more enticing lineup of games.
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