Here's the format: I'll give my take on each conference, separate contenders from pretenders and "nice try's" (teams who've already blew their chance), and make a new prediction.
SEC (My preseason pick: Florida)
Still the strongest conference in the land in spite of a downturn this year. Predictions by many (including me) that this is the year the Big 12 would pass the mighty SEC by were unfounded. In recent years, the SEC has had 4 or 5 teams in the nation's top 15; this year it's 3 (Florida, Bama, LSU). But no other conference can match that tally, so for now the SEC still reigns. Within a few weeks the divisional races could be decided, as Alabama and Florida are the clear favorites. Barring catastrophe, they should cruise. Running the table in the SEC is about as rare as finding a rabbit on the moon (8 times since 1992, when the conference expanded; not including SEC Championship games). But Alabama and Florida both should do it this year - Alabama's most threatening road game is at Auburn; Florida's at South Carolina. If this happens, it would be the scenario drooled over since major conference expansion begin in the early 90's: two undefeated teams meeting in a conference championship with a title shot on the line. Never happened before. Expect it to this year - and expect the hype surrounding the game to eclipse that of any regular season game before it.
Contenders: Alabama, Florida
Pretenders: LSU, Auburn, South Carolina
Nice Try: Mississippi, Georgia
My Midseason Pick: Florida
Big 12 (My preseason pick: Oklahoma State)
Last year is long gone. The Big 12 South featured 3 one-loss teams, all splitting hairs over who should represent the division in the championship game, and by reciprocation, the conference in the BCS championship. Not so this year. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State fell hard, leaving Texas to carry the flag. In the North, Nebraska is still somewhat under the radar but as good as anyone the conference has to offer. They should claim the division crown with ease. The South title might again be determined by this weekend's State Fair Special Feature in Dallas, though Oklahoma State is still lurking. The conference needed Colorado, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all to make strong showings for the Big 12 to surpass the SEC, but all have fallen short of expectation. Conference play has just gotten underway, with most teams only playing one game, so it's probably way too early to give an accurate forecast. But I'll try anyway.
Contenders: Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska
Pretenders: Oklahoma State, Kansas
Nice Try: Missouri, Texas Tech
My Midseason Pick: Nebraska (Huskers are for real and can match up with anyone the South can offer)
Pac Ten (My preseason pick: Oregon)
I love Oreo cookies. Double Stuf especially. And I love making a quad-stuf or sextuple-stuf, filling my mouth with Oreo creme, which stands alongside Krispy Kreme glaze as the most irresistible and tasty substances on earth. This year's Pac Ten reminds me of a sextuple-stuf Oreo: so much middle. USC and Oregon make up one chocolate cookie; Washington State the other. The rest is pretty much an indiscernible mess of equality. Last year I came up with my "Law of the Middling Pac Ten Teams", which stated that in any game between teams from the Pac Ten's middle, the home team will always win. I think there were only 2 or 3 exceptions all season. I'm about to enact that law again - all these teams are basically the same.
Contenders: USC, Oregon
Pretenders: Stanford, Oregon State
Nice Try: California, UCLA
My Midseason Pick: Oregon
Big Ten (My preaseason pick: Penn State)
Defense wins championships, and Ohio State, Iowa, and Penn State are the top teams for that very reason. We're about to fall into the "no one cares about the Big Ten at all" section of the season, with some boring football and no clear-cut national championship contender (though Ohio State and Iowa may beg to differ). Conference depth will mean lots of 3, 4, and 5 loss teams by the end of the year, and more bowl eligible teams than the conference can fill, but no noteworthy squad. Again.
Contenders: Ohio State, Iowa
Pretenders: Penn State, Michigan
Nice Try: Wisconsin, Illinois (yikes - they are TERRIBLE)
My Midseason Pick: Ohio State
Big East (My preseason pick: South Florida)
Big East game of the year: Thursday night when Cincinnati visits the Bulls of South Florida. This conference has been a pleasant surprise, with even those expected to be contenders for the conference crown having much better teams than expected. Add to that the fact that Syracuse is no longer a total doormat, and you have a year worth remembering in the Big East! But what has happened to Louisville, just 3 years removed from a BCS game?
Contenders: Cincinnati, South Florida, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Pretenders: Too early to tell
Nice Try: Rutgers
My Midseason Pick: Cincinnati
ACC (My preseason pick: Clemson)
A tale of two cities. Or in this case, divisions. The Coastal division holds all the power, and even Virginia and Duke are looking frisky these days. The Atlantic - um, not so much. Will anyone finish stronger than 4-4? We all know of Florida State's troubles. N.C. State and Clemson haven't met their already-low expectations. Boston College is rebuilding. Maryland has lost to Middle Tennessee State two years straight. Wake Forest has been the division's most consistent team the past 3 seasons, but they're not about to turn any heads. And while we're here - can someone explain to me the reasoning behind the ACC's divisional setup? Coastal and Atlantic? How is that at all clear? Why not North and South? Is that too simple? North: BC, MD, VT, UVA, Wake, NCST. South: Duke, UNC, Clem, GT, Miami, FSU. Is that not better?
Contenders: Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)
Pretenders: Georgia Tech
Nice Try: North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, N.C. State
My Midseason Pick: Virginia Tech
Non-BCS Conferences (My preseason BCS party crasher: TCU)
What, you thought I'd go through them all? There's no way I have enough intelligent things to say, and the NCAA has already effectively lumped these programs together in a sub-class anyway. Boise State actually has an outside shot at a Championship Game appearance - they'd need to win out and hope for no more than one 1-loss major conference team. TCU has quietly creeped into the top-10, but haven't looked at all ready to crash the party.
Contenders (for BCS): Boise State
Pretenders: TCU
Nice Try: BYU, Utah
My Midseason BCS Party Crasher Pick: Boise State
National Championship Race (My preseason pick, and everyone else's: Florida)
The list of contenders will still be long, as late October and early November are the time in the season where the sand is sifted through the sieve. We know that the talk of "greatest season ever" and the expectation that there would be a few truly elite teams (Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma) and a bunch of good ones was baloney. You could argue that no team could be labeled "elite" right now, and what we have is a chunk of good teams and a lot of average ones. In other words, if the season would continue on its current course, it would be largely labeled a bust. We'll see what happens over the next 6 weeks.
Contenders: Florida, Alabama, Texas, USC, Oregon, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Ohio State
Pretenders: LSU, Cincinnati, Miami (FL), Iowa
Nice Try: California, Mississippi, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Penn State
My Midseason Pick: Florida (though they may have to beat Alabama twice to do it)
Well that took longer than expected, so we'll try to go rapid fire through this week's picks. As is customary, I lead with my Lions, though it's far from the best game of the week. You'll just have to deal with it. It's my blog.
1. Minnesota at Penn State
The Nittany Lions haven't allowed a first half TD all year, which is impressive no matter who you've played. And Penn State hasn't played anyone outside of Iowa. This is their first test against a team that could be labeled "average". Wideout Eric Decker will give the secondary fits, but the pass rush and strong run defense will offset the threat by making the Gopher's one-dimensional. Penn State traditionally struggles with spread offenses, so this will be close, but the Lions win.
Penn State 23, Minnesota 20
2. Texas vs. Oklahoma
Oddly enough, only once in the last 11 meetings has the outcome been decided by 7 points or less. It's a heated rivalry, but not a competitive one until the last 2 years. Oklahoma would love nothing more than to potentially spoil the season of their rival after theirs already has been. But even with Sam Bradford's return, the absence of Jermaine Gresham will continue to plague the Sooner offense. He brings a versatility and constant threat in the deep middle and the flats that no one else on their roster can match. As we've found out, the offense revolved around him; he kept defenses honest and gave opportunities for the backs and receivers to face single coverage and advantageous matchups. And I don't think Texas has shown the country their best stuff yet. It'll come this Saturday.
Texas 34, Oklahoma 28
3. USC at Notre Dame
USC's loss at Washington looks more and more like their usual hiccup rather than the symptoms of a deeper problem. Notre Dame's 4-1 record is deceiving, and the Irish get exposed as another one of the many average teams in the country.
USC 35, Notre Dame 17
4. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
When their offense is clicking, Georgia Tech is fun to watch. But for all the credit it rightly gets for being hard to defend, a superior defense can shut it down, and the Yellow Jackets have very little in the way of alternatives. Virginia Tech's defense is one that can do the job.
Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 20
5. Cincinnati at South Florida
The winner gets a huge leg up in the Big East race. South Florida has played very well in the absence of Matt Groethe, showing that their talent pool runs deep. Cincy has been cruising to this point, but their defense is susceptible to giving up points. And South Florida's D will be the best the Bearcats have faced thus far. I'm going with Cincy to ultimately win the conference crown, but be knocked off in Tampa on Thursday.
South Florida 27, Cincinnati 24
6. Arkansas at Florida
Arkansas has no upset magic here, even with Florida coming off an emotional victory. The Gators may come out sluggish, but they'll win going away.
Florida 38, Arkansas 17
7. Texas Tech at Nebraska
This may be a bigger test for Nebraska than the one at Missouri last week. The blackshirts will be stretched again - will they be able to hold for another week? My guess is yes, but I have a hunch that it'll be closer than expected - Texas Tech's defense can play and, with the exception of the debacle at Oklahoma last year, typically gets up for big games.
Nebraska 20, Texas Tech 16
8. Missouri at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys season gets even longer as they struggle to defend Blaine Gabbert and the Missouri offense, who have an extra bit of rest from playing on Thursday last week.
Missouri 33, Oklahoma State 24
9. South Carolina at Alabama
This is typically the point in the season where a surprising South Carolina team plummets to earth. Cue the free fall.
Alabama 28, South Carolina 7
10. Stanford at Arizona
Ugh, here we go with the splitting of hairs in the middle of the Pac Ten. If it weren't for a zany play at Washington, the Wildcats would be 4-1 right now. That, and the previously mentioned "Law of the Middling Pac Ten Teams" compels me to take Arizona. Though I like this Stanford team.
Arizona 27, Stanford 23
11. California at UCLA
Here comes another one. The difference here: Cal is mad, will be playing with something to prove, and has way more talent than UCLA. Or has Jeff Tedford lost his team? We'll see.
California 30, UCLA 20
12. Iowa at Wisconsin
You would think that Iowa would lose one of these close calls sometime. They've played their best away from home so far (35-3 over Iowa State, 21-10 over Penn State). But I think they're due, and Wisconsin's performance last week at Ohio State was impressive. In spite of the 31-13 score, the Badgers could have easily won that game. I mistakenly labeled Wisconsin as "exposed" last week, just seeing the score and moving on. The Buckeyes gained 200 yards less than the Badgers and managed 3 return TDs to pull out the win. In time of possession and yardage (Big Ten staples), Wisconsin dominated.
Wisconsin 24, Iowa 23
13. Pittsburgh at Rutgers
The Friday night Big East game no one watches. Rutgers can run the ball and could give Pitt's defense fits.
Rutgers 31, Pittsburgh 24
14. Wake Forest at Clemson
I guess I should pick an ACC game. In true Atlantic Division form, Clemson wins, drawing Wake into the morass of .500 or just below teams that comprise the division.
Clemson 27, Wake Forest 17
15. N.C. State at Boston College
I really want to pick Boise State-Tulsa to get an easy win, but I said I wasn't about that. And I already did yeoman's work on Florida-Arkansas. Somehow, this game makes the ABC 3:30 docket, but no one should be forced to watch the drivel that passes for ACC Atlantic football. Both teams come off of awful losses last week (BC: 48-14 to VT; NCST: 49-28 to Duke) and look to rebound. Home team gets the nod, and N.C. State's lone quality win - over Pitt - looks more and more like a fluke. They're about to lock up the award for the silliest sight on the WITTPWLLN - they'll crest at #10 in 2 weeks.
Boston College 21, N.C. State 13
Next up: another Saturday recap. Can't get more exciting than that!
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