In many ways this has been a rather bland season. Upsets have been present, but no more than usual. We've seen extremely competitive play, but with no dominant teams it loses some sizzle. You need a Goliath everyone thinks will never fall. Beyond the fact that the teams everyone resoundingly agreed would be dominant (Florida, Texas, Oklahoma) aren't, there have been relatively few surprises, going both ways. No completely out-of-nowhere team has shot up the polls (unless you count Cincinnati, and savvy fans could have seen that coming). Nor has any major contender beyond Oklahoma taken a titanic fall, and even the Sooners 3 losses have come on the total of 5 points. Florida State just misses the cut here because they were a bit of a crapshoot to begin with - top 25, yes, but a start like theirs was not totally improbable.
Perhaps the craziness this year will all be backloaded into the last month, and we're in for quite a show. Let's hope. In any case, I thought it would be fun to talk a look into my little experiment called the WITTPWLLN (What I Thought The Polls Would Look Like Now). In making my season picks before it all got underway in September, I extrapolated the season out week by week, predicting results and changing the polls accordingly. Beyond the fact that this exposes me as a total nerd, it makes for an interesting sidebar and an ongoing display of why preseason predictions are absurd. There are some strange things in there, which is intentional because at this point in any season there are some things in the polls that no one would ever have imagined back in August. But being the bland and somewhat predictable season it's been, I'm actually not all that far off the mark. Sixteen of the teams in the current WITTPWLLN are also in the actual BCS standings, and 11 of the top 15. I have six teams within 3 poll places of their actual location, including 5 of the top 10. Looking over the list, I've certainly done better than I expected. But there are some laughable oddities too:
Michigan State at #6 - their little 3 game losing streak was out of the blue - looking at their schedule before the season all those games looked loseable, but I expected them to be the better team in all. And maybe they were.
N.C. State at #10 - um, whoops? Schedule looked incredibly easy and Tom O'Brien has always been a winner. Yet 2 of their 3 wins have come against 1-AA competition. How, exactly, did they beat Pitt?
Nebraska at #14 - 3 weeks ago I looked like a genius.
Tennessee at #18 - I seem to remember Lane Kiffin stopping by for some Kool-Aid in mid-August.
Iowa at #20 - few would have seen them undefeated right now.
South Florida at #21 - I forgot that their annual swoon begins in mid-October, not late October.
North Carolina at #24 - I should have expected a Butch Davis-coached team to underachieve. He and Ron Zook need to form support groups for the hordes of fans they've strung along with mighty recruiting followed by zero results. Poor guys need to get themselves into "recruiting coordinator" roles and stick with where they're gifted.
And coming soon to the WITTPWLLN: Colorado (I think I made the same mistake last year too), and of course, Oklahoma State in the top 2 (which still has an outside chance of happening. WAY outside).
Then again, the real polls have the following anomalies almost no one saw coming in August: #8 Cincinnati, #17 Houston, #20 Arizona.
Anyway, I'm really dragging this thing out. This ship ran aground 6 paragraphs ago. On to this week's picks.
1. Penn State at Northwestern
Again eschewing the glamorous matchups in the #1 spot in favor of my Nittany Lions. This game has danger written all over it for me as a Penn State fan. Sandwiched between games with Michigan (a monkey-off-the-back win) and Ohio State (a season-defining game), the Nittany Lions have to go to Evanston, where the tiny stadium lets all the wind off the lake in. And it starts at the odd, made for TV time of 4:30. The last time Penn State travelled to Northwestern, they escaped with a last minute 5 point victory, in 2005. On paper, Penn State should win by 21. But it will be closer than that. Penn State's defense, which has allowed more than 10 points only twice all season, won't let them lose, but things could be dicey for awhile.
Penn State 23, Northwestern 14
2. Texas at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State's great hope to resurrect their season. I circled this as an upset waiting to happen as soon as I saw the schedules, but I'm not so sure anymore. It's the last major hurdle standing between Texas and an undefeated season, and I think the Longhorns will be ready. Texas quiets what will be a raucous crowd early, and Okie State can't get back into it.
Texas 38, Oklahoma State 24
3. USC at Oregon
Oregon has arguably been the best team in the nation the last 5 or 6 weeks, and they get a vulnerable USC team in Autzen Stadium at night. USC typically thrives in this sort of game, but right now Oregon is the better team. They've not even missed LaGarrette Blount, ranking 14th nationally in rushing. Expect lots of run against a defense who struggled with Lil' Quizz last week.
Oregon 31, USC 27
4. Georgia vs. Florida
It's come time in the season for another Tebow speech to get the Gators riled up for November.
Florida 30, Georgia 17
5. West Virginia at South Florida
South Florida has shown in the past 2 weeks that they're not nearly as good as they looked after reeling off wins in their first 5. This is a mediocre team.
West Virginia 28, South Florida 20
6. Mississippi at Auburn
If Auburn's not too busy trying to find the wheels that have fallen off their bandwagon, they should be able to beat Ole Miss, who have to be considered Exhibit A when it comes to offseason media inflation.
Auburn 27, Mississippi 24
7. Kansas at Texas Tech
Kansas rights the ship in Lubbock as their porous defense catches a break against a freshman QB.
Kansas 35, Texas Tech 32
8. Kansas State at Oklahoma
I'm picking this game not because I think it'll be close, but because of the astounding fact that Kansas State leads the Big 12 North. This is perhaps the most surprising thing I've seen this entire football season, with a close second going to the fact that Iowa State currently sits alone at #2. I hope they've enjoyed their time on top, it's only down from here.
Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 13
9. California at Arizona State
I'm taking California off "Middling Pac Ten Team" status, therefore they're exempt from the home team always wins rule when applied to those games.
California 31, Arizona State 21
10. Miami (FL) at Wake Forest
Starting to hit the dregs at what appears to be a very top-heavy week of action. Miami keeps their division hopes alive with a tough road win.
Miami (FL) 33, Wake Forest 20
11. Duke at Virginia
Don't look now, but these are two ACC Coastal contenders, at least on paper. Hard to believe after they both lost to Colonial Athletic Association teams in week one. A Duke win would leave them just one win from bowl eligibility. I'll go out on a limb and say they get it - Virginia's offense is kind of anemic and they're 1-3 at home.
Duke 20, Virginia 17
12. South Carolina at Tennessee
Tennessee's near miss at Alabama has me believing they can be a pretty good team before the year's out. Or is that the Lane Kiffin Kool-Aid I'm drinking again?
Tennessee 19, South Carolina 7
13. North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Tar Heels won't challenge VT in Lane Stadium at night.
Virginia Tech 34, North Carolina 14
14. Southern Mississippi at Houston
Possibly a C-USA title game preview. Houston just doesn't smell like a top 20 team to me, and Southern Miss is capable of knocking them off that peg. Not sure it means anything as the conference plays little to no defense, but Southern Miss ranks first in it in C-USA.
Southern Mississippi 28, Houston 24
15. Rutgers at Connecticut
The absolute paucity of interesting games leaves me with the choices of this, CMU-BC, Purdue-Wisconsin, MSU-Minnesota, and Temple-Navy as somewhat marketable freshman fifteen selections. Good grief. UConn gets an emotional win for Jasper Howard in their first home game since his death, and Rutgers coach and all around stand-up guy Greg Schiano has his team show as much respect and sportsmanship as was displayed in West Virginia last Saturday. Way to go, Big East - you're doing it right. It's a shame that it often takes tragedy to draw this sort of character out.
Connecticut 24, Rutgers 17
Next: another rousing edition of Saturday postgame
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