Saturday Postgame: Week 13

Some thoughts from a long, wild rivalry weekend. I'm stuffed with turkey and potatoes, and actually ready for all the football to be over!

The oft-used adage, "You can throw the records out the window when these two meet!" proved true this weekend. We had bowlless teams pulling big upsets (Mississippi State, N.C. State), hated rivals spoiling great seasons (South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia) other big underdogs putting major scares into title contenders (Auburn, Texas A&M), overtime thrillers (LSU-Arkansas, Tennessee-Kentucky, BYU-Utah), and scintillating to-the-wire nailbiters (Arizona-Arizona State, Missouri-Kansas, Notre Dame-Stanford). Rivalries bring out the best (and sometimes worst: Arizona-Arizona State) in competitive college football, and this weekend ended up as the best of the season to date. There were some HITS too, and players giving beyond their all to beat their hated rival, as the intensity level ramped up several notches from normal. Great entertainment.

The home career of Tim Tebow at Florida came to a close today. Urban Meyer and many others have commented that there will never be a player like Tebow, who will go down as one of the top 5 college players of all time. And that sentiment is right - Tebow is part fullback, part tailback, part quarterback, part coach, and even part linebacker. His blend of talent is totally unique, and could be labeled as "power passer". Unlike most quarterbacks, he goes right at you, eschewing finesse and skirting tacklers to take them head on, and his passing is much the same way - intense, powerful, like he's throwing fastballs while mixing in an off-speed pitch once in a while. He plays QB the way Hines Ward plays receiver. And he'll make a mean addition to the wildcat offense of an NFL team in the very near future. But what sets him apart even more is his character, integrity, and leadership. Bobby Bowden called him the greatest leader in the history of college football. And his off-field reputation of selflessness - going out of his way to reach out to prisons, the poor, and people overseas with the message of hope and salvation in Christ while loving them with genuineness and no pretense - is well-known. His commitment to integrity and upright character only bolsters that witness and message. Tebow himself would say he'd want to be remembered far more for what he's done off the field and how he's made Jesus known far and wide, than for all his on-field accomplishments. Today he wore eye black with the verse Hebrews 12:1-2 written on it. The verses read:

Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a great cloud of witnesses, let us throw off everything that hinders and the sin that so easily entangles, and let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us. Let us fix our eyes on Jesus, the author and perfecter of our faith, who for the joy set before him endured the cross, scorning its shame, and sat down at the right hand of the throne of God.

As Verne Lundquist pointed out on CBS's telecast, it's a very appropriate choice considering the day and the setting. I'm sure Tebow did that intentionally. But the "crowd of witnesses" at the Swamp today, for Tebow, is only symbolic of the cloud of witnesses from Heaven, and his Savior, looking on, motivating his play and, most importantly, his life.

Another player in the same class as Tim Tebow, albeit without the raw power he brings, is Colt McCoy. He's a dangerous dual threat QB - a better passer than Tebow and a completely different type of runner - and he's an incredible leader and strong Christian too. McCoy may have taken the Heisman lead by carrying Texas past their biggest upset threat of the year on Thanksgiving night. A Vince Young-type performance.

Speaking of that game, you have to be impressed with the fleet of young skill players Texas A&M has. The next 2 years are looking bright for the Aggies.

Six undefeated teams remain, even after a weekend filled with upsets and near misses. I've come to the conclusion that the reason so many are left is the utter mediocrity of the rest of college football. After today, no one-loss teams remain. Nine have 2 losses. Then come a slew of three, four, and five loss teams, many of whom (I'm looking at you, SEC) have beaten each other to a pulp. It's amazingly difficult to determine who is better than whom. The bowls should have some interesting matchups to offer, but even they won't completely sort out the mess of mediocrity.

It appears that the Nike R&D department decided that this week would be a new uniform design test week, with at least 5 teams unveiling new, and in some cases, downright strange designs. Here's my take on the looks:

LSU: Gold helmets and all-white shirt and pants combo. The look would have been incredibly sweet if it weren't for the purple stripe that makes a U around the back of the pants.

Florida: White helmets were nice. Blue jerseys and pants not so much. And the extra-wide white stripe looping around the top of the pants gives it a failing grade. Weird.

Miami (FL): Um, no. Dual-color jersey numbers? Oddly placed pant stripes, with different colors on each side? What's with Nike and odd-looking pant striping?

Virginia Tech: The all-white (helmet, jersey, pants) looks sharp, and I liked the overall look. But letting maroon bleed to orange at the top of the jersey numbers? Why? Nike apparently also has a fetish for two-color numbering.

Missouri: The strangest of the bunch. Steel gray helmets with a black M and black striping, white jerseys with gray sleeves and numbers, and gray pants with black stripes. The oddest part, however, might have been the very small but very glaring yellow stripe on the gray sleeve. Looks out of place. The worst uniform of all.

In summary, how many more Oregons do we need? Please, Nike, stop!

Speaking of uniforms, will someone start a petition on behalf of couch potatoes everywhere demanding Boise State to stop wearing all blue on their blue turf? Even in HD it's blinding trying to discern where player ends and field begins. And that's before the snap. Afterward it's a swirling blue tornado. Maddening to watch.

If Alabama manages to get past Florida and whoever they'd play in the BCS championship, their methodical drive to the winning TD against Auburn will go deep into Alabama lore as "The Drive".

From the "that's a shame" department, Temple dropped their final game of the season to Ohio, their first loss in MAC play and a loss which kept them from the MAC championship game. The Owls had put together a great season (finishing 9-3) and a MAC championship would have been more than deserved. Al Golden, Penn State alum, has done an incredible job rebuilding what was once a program on life-support.

While I was driving today, I heard an ad on FOX Sports Radio for their college football wrap-up show. The gist of it was "if you have boring family outings and wife-driven household chores, and grudgingly have to miss some college football, tune in to us." Now, I like the wrap-up shows (watching one now in fact), but the general attitude of family and responsibilities being a bother or a nuisance irks me. What will you remember years from now - South Carolina waxing Clemson or watching your daughter blow out the candles on her 2nd birthday cake? What is more meaningful - watching Miami wipe the U off South Florida's helmet, or serving your family by taking care of your house? C'mon, men - step up and prioritize the right things! Keep sports in the right place!

BCS bowl forecast:

Nat'l Champ: Florida v. Texas

Rose: Ohio State v. Oregon

Sugar: Alabama v. Boise State

Fiesta: Penn State v. TCU

Orange: Clemson v. Pittsburgh

And of course that will change drastically after next week, with 5 BCS conference championships up for grabs.

Next: picking championship week, look for it Wednesday late-night.

Week 13: Giving Thanks

If you'll excuse me for a minute, I'd like to push the football talk back for a bit to make some social commentary. If you're anything like me, you get miffed at the fact that Christmas has bled well past Thanksgiving and into early autumn. I saw Christmas paraphernalia for sale around roughly September 12. No joke. The Fall season begins September 21, which means Christmas has bled into summer.

What this does, apart from annoy the crap out of most Americans, is diminish the wonderful holiday of Thanksgiving. There was once a time when the purveying of Christmas wares before Thanksgiving was considered unthinkable. It was so taboo to start the Christmas sales before Thanksgiving that Macy's founder Fred Lazarus, Jr. pushed FDR to move Thanksgiving a week earlier so the shopping season could begin sooner (gotta love Wikipedia!). Apparently, over time the merchants ceased to care about being taboo, and we're now close to a literal Christmas in July situation. Isn't greed great? Ugh.

So Thanksgiving has become little more than a speed bump on the materialist greed-grab that is the American cultural Christmas experience. Which is a shame, because Thanksgiving is one of the greatest weekends of the year. And not just because of the 3 F's of Thanksgiving: family, football, and food. All of which are cause for celebration. It's the one time of year I actually enjoy eating leftovers!

But beyond those externals surrounding the Thanksgiving weekend is the heart of the holiday: a time of giving thanks. I love the fact that our country, and several others as well, sets aside a day each year to give thanks for the blessings and gifts we've received. Thanksgiving, of course, began with the earliest settlers from Europe to the American continent, as they praised God for His provision and protection amid the harshness of life in a dangerous and wild land. It would become a yearly tradition, established by presidential decree - a day set aside to acknowledge God's provision and abundant blessing on the nation and its people. It's a time of humility and recognition that we're not the ones responsible for all that we have, that we've been astoundingly blessed. And we have to be sure.

So before engaging in the four day feast of family, food, and football, be sure to reflect on the thousands of things we have to be thankful for. For me, the list begins with my grace-given relationship with God through Christ, my wonderful and loving wife, a healthy and beautiful daughter, dozens and dozens of friends and family who care about me deeply, the best job in the world, and more than enough food on the table and money in the bank. I'm blessed, and I'm more than thankful.

Needless to say, I'm also thankful for the smorgasbord of college football that encompasses Thursday night through early Sunday morning. It's the best week of the season. Not only are there wall-to-wall games all weekend long; constant opportunity to eat leftover turkey and mashed potatoes and fall asleep in front of a college football game. This is also the chief weekend of the largest rivalries in the sport, tilts that sizzle with intrigue even without national implications. Throw those in and you've got the most emotional and entertaining games of the season. My only gripe is that not all of the major rivalries happen in this one weekend. Imagine if you threw in Ohio State-Michigan, Oregon-Oregon State, and the other rivalry games that have shifted weekends for one reason or another. It seems as the traditional last weekend of the college season has become 3. Just another problem to correct when I become czar of college football someday.

I'll do the picks this week in chronological order, spanning the 50-odd hours of great rivalry action in the offing.

1. Texas at Texas A&M

Oddly enough, Texas A&M has taken two of the past three against the Longhorns. Upsets mark the recent history of this series. Can it happen again? It's a short week of prep for both teams, which can throw a wrench into things and add a level of unpredictability. Texas is favored by something like 23 points, but I expect this game to be much closer. Texas A&M has been inconsistent all season, but will be up for this one to be sure, and Kyle Field will be rocking for the 8pm Thanksgiving night start. But in the end, Colt McCoy will pull the Longhorns through - he's become a man on a mission, and the mission is both a Heisman trophy and a national championship. In a few months we could be talking about Colt McCoy rivaling Tim Tebow as the top QB of this generation and one of the greatest college QBs of all time.

Texas 23, Texas A&M 17

2. Alabama at Auburn

The Iron Bowl looks like an upset alert, but don't count on it. Auburn's offense has sputtered at times this year and has yet to face anything like the Crimson Tide defense they'll face Friday. It'll be intense and hard-hitting, but it may end up being one of those SEC grinders that's out of reach in spite of what the score might show.

Alabama 20, Auburn 6

3. Pittsburgh at West Virginia

The interesting thing about this edition of the Backyard Brawl is that a Pitt loss means virtually nothing. They can still win the Big East by defeating Cincinnati at home next weekend. But you can bet that the Panthers will not lack motivation. Neither will the Mountaineers. A West Virginia win wouldn't erase the pain inflicted upon them the last time Pitt traveled the hour south to Morgantown, their 13-9 win eliminating WVU from national title contention in their very last game of the season. But beating a much better Pitt team would be pretty satisfying anyway. Weird things happen in this series, and point spreads mean nothing. My hunch is that Pitt gets ambushed by an amped up Mountaineer squad, but is able to regroup and still win the Big East next weekend.

West Virginia 27, Pittsburgh 23

4. Nevada at Boise State

If this game were in Reno, I might pull the trigger on an upset pick. Nevada's come the closest to knocking off Boise on the blue track, but the Broncos are virtually unbeatable against WAC teams at home. Boise State's defense rises to the occasion to stop a high-flying Nevada offense and preserve their undefeated season and BCS dreams. But it could be dicey.

Boise State 42, Nevada 28

5. Clemson at South Carolina

Clemson may be the ACC Atlantic champion, but they're still Clemson. Which means there's a good chance for an upset here. The ACC Atlantic is a far cry from the SEC, and a South Carolina victory would take a little pressure off the ol' Ballcoach heading into the bowl season. Clemson gets caught looking past their rival to their first ACC Championship game (which they have a very good chance of winning, by the way), just a bit, and they lose some of the momentum built over a 6 game winning streak.

South Carolina 24, Clemson 23

6. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

I have a hard time believing that Oklahoma has totally abandoned their season, though recent results speak otherwise. It's been perhaps the most disappointing of the Stoops era, but knocking their in-state rival out of BCS contention, and following that with a bowl win, would at least provide a silver lining. Oklahoma State's 9-2 record is a bit deceiving - they've played two ranked teams all season (Texas and Houston), and lost both, both at home. And they've struggled to get past average opponents all season long. They're ripe for an upset in the Bedlam Series.

Oklahoma 34, Oklahoma State 28

7. Florida State at Florida

The Seminoles close another disappointing campaign with another blowout loss to their rivals from Gainesville. And immediately following the Florida win, the hype machine cranks up for the run-up to the SEC Championship. Expect such superlatives as, "greatest matchup in the history of conference championship games", "the most anticipated matchup of the season", and, from the south, "the real national championship".

Florida 37, Florida State 17

8. Arizona at Arizona State

I've gone back and forth over this game. Arizona's lost 2 straight and could be characterized as "reeling", with the wheels ready to fall off what began as an excellent season. A loss here would likely lead to 6-6, with USC on the docket next week. But a closer look shows a close loss at a surging Cal squad and a double overtime defeat against Oregon, the class of the Pac-Ten. Their season isn't over yet, and though the Sun Devils will keep things close, Arizona is the better team.

Arizona 20, Arizona State 17

9. Miami (FL) at South Florida

South Florida already has one in-state scalp with their road win at Florida State, and they seek another here. But look for Jacory Harris to pick apart the Bulls secondary, affirming the fact that they still have some catching up to do in order to be the fourth member of the Sunshine State power structure.

Miami (FL) 31, South Florida 16

10. Missouri at Kansas

If recent Border Wars have given any indication of what will come this year, expect this game to be wild. Kansas has had an awful season and needs to win to become bowl eligible, and take some heat off Coach Mangino. I'm picking them to do it - the Jayhawks may have disappeared for the second half of the season but they'll be prepared and eager come Saturday against their arch-rival. Todd Reesing's still a good QB too, maybe he has some late game heroics left for the Tigers.

Kansas 35, Missouri 31

11. Utah at BYU

For some reason, I've considered Utah as overrated all season, starting with the release of the preseason magazines and polls. Nothing I've seen this season has changed that opinion. People forget how poised Brian Johnson was under center for the Utes, and while they still have talent, a freshman cannot possibly provide the kind of leadership that Johnson did. BYU wins going away.

BYU 30, Utah 14

12. Arkansas at LSU

Arkansas could be a popular upset pick after the debacle LSU had last week in Oxford, but the Tigers are clearly the more talented team. The talent gap will make up for what lacks in sideline leadership, and LSU will bounce back at home to secure a New Year's Day bowl bid.

LSU 27, Arkansas 24

13. Tennessee at Kentucky

Kentucky has quietly put together one of the most surprising and overlooked seasons of the year. The Wildcats are a home win over an average team away from 8-4 and a New Year's Day bowl; if Kentucky wins expect the Outback Bowl to call and pair them with Wisconsin. Rich Brooks was once embattled and nearly out of a job, but he's got to get credit for making the most out of the least in the SEC year after year. In rooting for a feel good story, I'm going with Kentucky to beat Tennessee in a tight one.

Kentucky 23, Tennessee 20

14. Notre Dame at Stanford

The Charlie Weis era comes to its regular season end with an embarrassing loss at once-lowly Stanford. The Irish won't have an answer for brute running back Toby Gerhart. The only questions surrounding Notre Dame after this week will be: 1) Will they even be invited to a bowl game?, and 2) Will Charlie Weis be around to coach in it, or will they can him immediately?

Stanford 41, Notre Dame 21

15. Georgia at Georgia Tech

I'm surprised at how close the spread is for this one (last check: 7 points). Georgia's obviously living on reputation alone, as this year's Bulldogs are the definition of average. Georgia Tech ran all over them last year, no reason to expect different this time around. Also, this rivalry has one of the greatest names of them all: Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. But, since when has hate been clean?

Georgia Tech 38, Georgia 24

Next: a Saturday evening look back at the pomp, pageantry, and intensity of rivalry weekend.

Week 12: Why TCU in the National Championship Would Be Bad for College Football

For the sake of argument, lets say that Texas drops one of it's last 3 games (Kansas, @Texas A&M, Big 12 Championship, likely a decent Nebraska team). Not likely, but stranger things have happened in the world of college football. Much stranger. Remember West Virginia laying an egg against arch-rival Pitt in the last game of the season 2 years ago? And this is for the sake of argument anyway. So get off my back - Texas might lose!

If that would happen, the door would swing wide open for a team like TCU, currently fourth in the latest BCS standings, to step into the national championship game. Remember that Florida and Alabama will play what will essentially be a semifinal game in the SEC Championship. TCU and Cincinnati would grapple for the other open spot, and as it stands now, TCU rests ahead of the Bearcats by a few percentage points. If Cincy wins out, which would include a win at top-10 Pittsburgh, they could very easily leapfrog TCU into the #2 spot, but let's say they don't. For the sake of argument, remember?

That would match TCU against the Florida-Alabama winner for the BCS national championship. Awesome, right? The ultimate David vs. Goliath battle. The school from one of the conferences essentially discarded by the BCS when this whole experiment started gets their shot at the ultimate prize. Fans of the underdog would everywhere rejoice, and the nation would rally around little-guy TCU and their once-in-a-million championship chance. It would certainly add sizzle to the bowl season.

But be careful what you wish for. TCU improbably making the national championship game would ultimately be bad for college football. Craig Thompson, commissioner of the very Mountain West conference where TCU hails from, has been the man spearheading the BCS-as-unconstitutional movement, lobbying in Congress for a playoff system. One of the main arguments of this movement is the fairness of the system, or better, the unfairness of it. The argument states that it's all but impossible for a team from a non-AQ conference to have a fair shot at a national championship. They say the system is rigged against the little guy.

If TCU makes the national championship game, it would empower the BCS bigwigs to say, "See! The system is fine. A team from any conference can win a national championship - just look at TCU in 2009! Of course the BCS is a fair and legitimate determiner of the best team in college football." The Horned Frogs would become the poster child for the BCS-is-fair movement, and any move toward a playoff would be severely hindered. In the end, it could be very bad for college football as a whole, as it would open the door for many more years of the same-old, same-old BCS business.

My advice to TCU, and Boise State for that matter: throw a game! Do it for the greater good! Sacrifice yourselves for the sake of all the little guys who look up to you!

Just kidding. Kind of. In actuality, it would be sweet if TCU made the championship game. What an underdog, David vs. Goliath story that would be!

And on to the picks in what appears to be an underwhelming week (but we all know will entertain nonetheless, and could be the week that shakes the whole race up - you never know).

1. Penn State at Michigan State

Critics of Penn State will point out the fact that the Nittany Lions have beaten absolutely no one this year, which is mostly true, though a rejuvenated Temple may argue that fact. Yet in spite of the lack of meat on PSU's win column, you can't fault them for beating who they should have beaten. Isn't that what separates top notch programs with the Clemsons and Virginia Techs of the world? And it should also be noted, while we're on the subject, that PSU all but gave Iowa the game, with the 2 Hawkeye TDs coming on a punt block and a very short field after an INT. The better team won, sure, but the 21-10 score isn't indicative of how well Penn State's defense played or how close the game actually was. Also in spite of the 9 "weak" wins, Penn State is one win away from a BCS bowl, in what will end up being their toughest road game of the year. The Nittany Lion offense may again struggle, but their defense will smother the Spartans and do enough to get PSU to a win. And the Fiesta Bowl will be happy to snatch up an at-large Penn State team.

Penn State 20, Michigan State 13

2. Ohio State at Michigan

Fact: if Michigan loses (obvious hint: they will), they'll have lost 2 out of every 3 games played during RichRod's head coaching tenure. But they'll still have not lost a bowl game in 2 seasons!

Ohio State 28, Michigan 10

3. LSU at Mississippi

I can't quite make sense of LSU. Twice they've pushed the top 2 teams in the country to the near-limit, and on several other occasions they've barely managed to squeak by mediocre competition (Washington, Miss. St., most recently La. Tech). Is it inconsistency, or is it a sign that maybe Florida and Alabama, even with the perception of them as flawed teams, are not even as strong as everyone assumes? LSU gets Ole Miss this week, who's hatred for them is barely given a bat of an eye in reciprocation. Ole Miss played their best game of the year last week, and seem to be coming around to be the team people thought they might be this year. Dexter McCluster has another big week in leading the Rebels to the upset.

Mississippi 31, LSU 24

4. Oregon at Arizona

Arguably the most important game of the week, though an Arizona win would only muddy the Pac Ten waters even more so than they currently are. Arizona is a tough place to play, but I think Oregon is the class of the conference and should prove it here. The loss to Stanford was more USC hangover than anything.

Oregon 27, Arizona 17

5. California at Stanford

The Big Game happens to be the only matchup of top 25 teams this week (#25 Cal and #17 Stanford). Toby Gerhart has gotten some major Heisman love lately, and for good reason. He should keep up his torrid tear through the Pac Ten by goring the middle of the Cal defense.

Stanford 37, California 24

6. Kansas at Texas

Texas may lose at some point, but it won't be here. The Longhorns are the best team in the country, bar none, right now, and Kansas has plummeted all the way to the bottom of the lowly Big 12 North. And that's not easy to do.

Texas 52, Kansas 14

7. Minnesota at Iowa

They play for a bronzed pig named "Floyd". How marvelously Midwestern. Iowa should stop their slide, and Minnesota attempts to get excited at the thought of playing in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Is anyone else surprised Little Caesar's still exists? Is their tagline still "Pizza! Pizza!"? I need to know these things!

Iowa 24, Minnesota 20

8. North Carolina at Boston College

The best the ACC has to offer this week, as the surging Tar Heels go into the cold to face Boston College, who holds out hope of winning their division. They'd need a Clemson loss to Virginia, and if Clemson's history has anything to say about it, their hope may not be as slim as most think. North Carolina is clearly the better team, but home field advantage pulls the scrappy Eagles to the win.

Boston College 23, North Carolina 22

9. Kansas State at Nebraska

The de facto Big 12 North championship game, and no one will see it because the main broadcast carrier is web-based ESPN360. Doesn't matter, unless Nebraska bumbles their way to 8 turnovers again, they'll win easily.

Nebraska 35, Kansas State 17

10. Oklahoma at Texas Tech

Could be entertaining, and it will be interesting to see how Bob Stoops guides his team through the last 2 weeks (@TT, home for Oklahoma State). The Sooners could end up 6-6 just as easily as they could 8-4. Count on the latter - Stoops isn't paid over $4 million a year because he looks good in crimson.

Oklahoma 38, Texas Tech 30

11. Connecticut at Notre Dame

Could end up being Charlie Weis's last victory on the sideline of the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame 27, Connecticut 24

12. Wisconsin at Northwestern

A Wisconsin win and they silently sneak up on a 10-win regular season. Bet you didn't see that coming!

Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 17

13. Kentucky at Georgia

With an absolute paucity of intriguing games, I'm left scraping the boring middle of the nation's power conferences. Yawn. Georgia in a snoozer.

Georgia 34, Kentucky 20

14. Arizona State at UCLA

Ugh - is this really what I have to work with this week? At least these teams have the motivation of fighting for bowl eligibility, though we all know that's a bit like fighting for 20th in a NASCAR race. It's boring and no one remembers who finished 20th.

Arizona State 21, UCLA 14

15. Air Force at BYU

I have to step away from the power conferences - Iowa State at Missouri was the only viable choice and I'm not going there. At least Air Force can keep BYU off balance with their triple option, and service academies just love making things interesting for religious institutions. Just ask Notre Dame. BYU wins, but Air Force makes them work for it.

BYU 30, Air Force 17

Next: no Saturday wrap-up, I'll be away at a conference. And with all the boredom in the offing, I'd probably be asleep on the couch anyway, drool and tortilla chip crumbs dotting the front of my previously pristine white #2 Penn State jersey.

Saturday Postgame: Week 11

Some observations after another solid week of college football:

When I saw the Stanford-USC score, it was the most astounded I've been all season. The Stanford Cardinal hung 55 on mighty USC?! What's happened to the Trojans? USC now sits at 7-3 and is in danger of losing at least one of their last 2 (UCLA, Arizona). This begs the question: where will USC land come bowl time? If they win out, they still could manage a Holiday Bowl berth, but it would likely mean they'd be selected above a team who finished ahead of them in the Pac Ten standings. More likely is the Sun Bowl or the Emerald Bowl. How humiliating might it be for USC to play in the Emerald Bowl against a team like Boston College? Answer: about as humiliating as losing by 34 at home to Stanford.

Speaking of Stanford, those smarties have in back-to-back weeks posted a total of 106 points against teams ranked in the top 10. Their quarterback is a freshman.

I'd rank the conferences like this:

1. Pac Ten

2. SEC

3. Big Ten

4. Big 12

5. Big East

6. ACC

7. Mtn West

8. C-USA

9. WAC

10. MAC

11. Sun Belt

The Pac Ten gets the top spot because of overall quality. Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, USC, Oregon State, and California are all above average teams, evidenced by the way they keep pounding each other week after week. Washington, UCLA, and Arizona State are all a few steps behind, but they'd be middle of the pack bowl teams in any other conference. And then there's Washington State. Lets forget about them for the time being. I dare any conference this year to match the Pac Ten's top 6. Unless Oregon runs through Arizona and Oregon State without losing (a 50/50 proposition), the conference race will end with a 2-loss team winning the title. But it's not because of mediocrity.

I don't know why, but I find Georgia's home uniforms (Red jerseys, silver "britches", and red helmets with a big black G on the side) the most intimidating in all of college football.

If Penn State wins next week at Michigan State, the Nittany Lions will make a BCS bowl. You heard it here first. And here's why. If everything plays out as it's expected to (which it won't, but that would mean PSU would ascend the rankings even higher), the BCS championship game would pair Texas vs. the Florida-Alabama winner. The loser of the SEC Championship would be gobbled up by the Sugar Bowl. Automatic bids would go to Ohio State (Rose Bowl), the ACC winner (likely Georgia Tech), the Big East winner (probably Cincinnati, Pitt could slip in too), and the Pac Ten (who knows at this point, but Oregon is most likely). That would mean an Ohio State-Oregon Rose Bowl and the ACC winner in the Orange Bowl due to bowl tie-ins. TCU would get an automatic bid, likely to the Fiesta Bowl. That would leave 2 additional spots, to be taken filled by teams from this group: Boise State, Penn State, the Pitt-Cincy loser, Iowa, Oklahoma State (if they beat Oklahoma), and Georgia Tech if they lost the ACC Championship game. It would be criminal in that situation for an undefeated Boise State to be looked over, so we can assume they'd be the first team off that list. If you're a BCS bowl commissioner and those are the teams you have to choose from, wouldn't a 2-loss Penn State team be a no-brainer? One could argue that Iowa ought to be chosen before PSU based on the head-to-head win, but PSU has more selling power. Plus, after this weeks results, Penn State will leap at least to #13, possibly higher. They'll close in on a top 10 regular season finish with a win next week.

I was pretty convinced at least one of the top 5 would fall this week. Looking at the schedule gave you that feel - the top 3 with testy road games, #4 and #5 looking at tough home opponents. Alabama at Mississippi State was my upset pick (that didn't work out so well). Give the big boys credit, they took care of business and haven't felt the noose tighten around their necks. Yet.

TCU is without a doubt for real. There are those who will argue that no team from a non-BCS conference, even if they are undefeated, should be ranked as high as TCU is (and Boise State for that matter). The basis for that argument is that if they were placed in a BCS conference and given the week-in, week-out tests teams from BCS conferences face, these "mid-major" powers would invariably drop 2 or 3 (or more) games. But how true is that, really? TCU has been pounding the best their conference can offer - would this years Alabama team do the same if they were in the Mountain West? Maybe, but with their consistency issues on offense, maybe not. And with the defensive speed and offensive maturity TCU has, my guess is that they'd fare just fine in a conference like the SEC. In fact, TCU is a lot like Alabama - a fast, hungry, aggressive defense paired with a good running game and capable QB. And don't forget that Alabama was waxed by Utah in the heart of SEC country in the Sugar Bowl last year. That was the same Alabama team who ran the table in the regular season and pushed eventual champion Florida to the limit in the SEC Championship. All I'm saying is that the gap isn't nearly as large as most think. The biggest difference, as stated by Todd McShay on ESPN radio this afternoon, is depth. TCU has the same level of talent among their starters, but they can't keep up with their bench players. They, and schools like them, recruit tweeners and late bloomers rather than 4 and 5 star guys, and when those gambles pay off they come up big. But the big programs are loaded top to bottom with rich talent that doesn't need the multi-year development the tweeners and late bloomers do.

Next: week 12. What else would be?

Week 11: Quick Picks

My apologies for the late post this week - it's been a crazy busy week for we campus ministry folk in Pittsburgh and I've not had the opportunity to write until now. It just means I won't be able to pick the now-over USF-Rutgers snoozer (I'd have picked Rutgers, honest). What I will do, due to the ongoing craziness of my schedule and the lateness of my initiation of this post, is make this a week of quick picks. It could turn out to be the pivotal week of the season, as each of the top 3 face sneaky-tough upset alert games, and #4 TCU and #5 Cincy face their toughest tests of the season to date, both at home. I promise a more meaty offering Saturday night.

1. Florida at South Carolina

Steve Spurrier continues to regret his decision to leave Florida and test NFL waters.

Florida 31, South Carolina 14

2. Alabama at Mississippi State

They were close against LSU, close against Florida, and this time Mississippi State gets their upset against an Alabama team coming off a tough, emotional win. Letdown game written all over this one.

Mississippi State 16, Alabama 13

3. Texas at Baylor

Texas loads up on points early against Robert Griffin-less Baylor.

Texas 42, Baylor 17

4. Utah at TCU

TCU rolls on by pasting overrated Utah.

TCU 28, Utah 7

5. West Virginia at Cincinnati

Ditto for Cincy against mediocre West Virginia.

Cincinnati 34, West Virginia 20

6. Iowa at Ohio State

Buckeyes might earn their 4th shutout of the season against Iowa offense that's sans Stanzi.

Ohio State 20, Iowa 6

7. Arizona at California

Arizona is good, but has peaked at #17 with Cal, Oregon, and USC remaining on the schedule.

California 27, Arizona 21

8. Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

Thermostat gets cranked up for Charlie Weis with another loss and the prospect of yet another disappointing year (6-6, anyone?).

Pittsburgh 30, Notre Dame 24

9. Miami (FL) at North Carolina

Hurricanes end winless streak in Chapel Hill. Barely.

Miami (FL) 31, North Carolina 27

10. Stanford at USC

Stanford is much, much better this time around than the last time they visited the Coliseum, and that game ended with perhaps the most shocking upset of all-time. USC will be ready this year.

USC 24, Stanford 21

11. Auburn at Georgia

Georgia gets bowl eligibility in the oldest rivalry in the South.

Georgia 38, Auburn 31

12. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Okie State's home troubles continue.

Texas Tech 44, Oklahoma State 31

13. Georgia Tech at Duke

Yellow Jackets live to play another week in the top 10 with close win vs. plucky Duke.

Georgia Tech 31, Duke 24

14. Tennessee at Mississippi

Vols have turned the corner in the past 4 weeks and can get Lane Kiffin's first ever road win here.

Tennessee 26, Mississippi 20

15. Missouri at Kansas State

K-State's run at the top of the Big 12 North ends on the arm of Blaine Gabbert.

Missouri 34, Kansas State 21

Next: A hearty recap after what could be the best weekend of college football all season.

Week 10: The Undefeateds

If you've been following this blog this season (I thank you), you'd know that I suspect that there will be several undefeated teams left standing at the end of the regular season. The last time more than one was undefeated heading into the bowls was 2006, when Ohio State and Boise State made it through unscathed (though the Buckeyes were dispatched easily by Florida, the first of their big game woes). Last time more than one BCS-automatic qualifier conference team did it? 2005, the year Texas beat USC in one of the greatest games of all time for the title. Compared with recent years, 7 undefeated teams entering November is very much on the high side. Some years have only yielded 3 undefeated squads by this point in the season. And this year, the schedule is setting up quite nicely to produce several, perhaps as many as 5, undefeated teams at season's end. We know there will be upsets, but for more than 5 of those 7 to fall? Doubt it.

So...let's take a look at each undefeated team and size up their chances to enter the Christmas season with a bagel in the loss column.

1. Florida

Record: 8-0

Remaining Schedule: Vanderbilt, @South Carolina, Florida International, Florida State, SEC Championship

Toughest Test: SEC Championship (possibly v. Alabama?)

Upset Watch: @South Carolina

My Two Cents: The Gators may be getting back on the rails after their throttling of Georgia and their ill-conceived black helmets. We'll find out more this week - if they put up 50 against lowly Vandy and couple that with a dominant defensive performance, that's a good sign that they've shaken their midseason funk. With Alabama looking dodgy, Gators are emerging as the most probable last man standing in the SEC.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 70%

2. Texas

Record: 8-0

Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Baylor, Kansas, @Texas A&M, (most likely) Big 12 Championship

Toughest Test: @Texas A&M (maybe)

Upset Watch: @Baylor

My Two Cents: Consensus is that they can play at half speed and win the rest. I'm not as sold on that. We're bordering on the syndrome I mentioned a few weeks ago - when you're penciled in to the title game, it goes to your head and you're vulnerable for a big fall. Call it the Proverbs 16:18 Syndrome: Pride goes before destruction. Remember Penn State last year - a week after winning in the Horseshoe everyone wrote them into the national championship game, then came the disaster in Iowa City. And for an in-conference example, remember Oklahoma in 2003, who were widely regarded as the greatest college team ever, then promptly lost to a pedestrian Kansas State team 35-7 on a cold night in Kansas City for the Big 12 Championship. Don't think that can't happen to Texas - in Waco, in College Station, or even against whoever the Big 12 North can muster.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 75% (even amid the gloom and doom talk above)

3. Alabama

Record: 8-0

Remaining Schedule: LSU, @Mississippi State, Chattanooga, @Auburn, possible SEC Championship game

Toughest Test: LSU

Upset Watch: @Mississippi State

My Two Cents: By far the hardest road for any of the remaining undefeateds. Combine the way Alabama's offense has looked in recent weeks with the difficult schedule, and it's hard to see them running the table. Even with that defense. Just making the SEC Championship game would be an excellent achievement.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 20%

4. Iowa

Record: 9-0

Remaining Schedule: Northwestern, @Ohio State, Minnesota

Toughest Test: @Ohio State

Upset Watch: Northwestern

My Two Cents: Is it luck or is it an uncannily steely fourth quarter resolve? Appears to be a bit of both. Last week I compared the Hawkeyes to 2002 Ohio State, and I realized a better comparison may be to the 1999 Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State ran out to 9-0 but had their fair share of narrow escapes: blocked field goal as time expired against Pitt, 80-yard TD pass to beat Miami, holding Drew Brees and Purdue on 4 straight plays from inside the 10. The tables finally turned on that dark day in Happy Valley when Minnesota fluked their way to an upset (I'm not still bitter. I'm not.). Iowa looks like a team who's time will run out soon.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 25%

5. Cincinnati

Record: 8-0

Remaining Schedule: Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois, @Pittsburgh

Toughest Test: @Pittsburgh

Upset Watch: Connecticut

My Two Cents: A tough stretch coming up, but this team has passed every test thus far with flying colors. And they're doing it now with a backup QB who looks every bit as good as the starter. The Bearcats have dispelled all doubts so far, why not expect them to continue? Look out for this Saturday though - UConn has played everyone tough and Cincy could have some major jitters as they have their chance in the national spotlight with an 8:00 start on ABC.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 50%

6. TCU

Record: 8-0

Remaining Schedule: @San Diego State, Utah, @Wyoming, New Mexico

Toughest Test: Utah

Upset Watch: @Wyoming?

My Two Cents: Getting stronger every week, but will need loads of help to get into the title game even if they're the only undefeated team left. It's hard to see any of their remaining opponents matching up with them, so if they play like they have been, their spot in the BCS sun should arrive soon.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 80%

7. Boise State

Record: 8-0

Remaining Schedule: @Louisiana Tech, Idaho, @Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico State

Toughest Test: Idaho

Upset Watch: @Louisiana Tech

My Two Cents: They need to get themselves out of such a pathetic conference. With the quality of their remaining opponents, they've probably hit their ceiling rankings-wise.

Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 85%

So there you have it - Florida, Texas, TCU, and Boise State will likely finish undefeated, and Cincinnati is looking decent too. Will it play out that way? No, but it would sure make me look good if it did!

On to this week. Lots of home teams and non-upsets color the fifteen. Am I getting too conservative? Maybe, but I just don't see this being an upset-laden weekend.

1. Ohio State at Penn State

Ooh baby, I'm starting to salivate over this game already. We Penn Staters abhor Michigan more than any other, but Ohio State is probably our biggest current rival (though the very real possibility of playing Pitt in a major bowl game would trigger some major old school venom). Games between these two have almost always been close, and this year looks no different. The X-factor is Terrelle Pryor. Will he finally live up to his billing as the top recruit who had 4 schools chasing him around like a horse chasing a carrot well past signing day? Or will he continue his unimpressive management of the Ohio State offense and wilt under the hot breath of 110,000 white-clad voiceboxes? Pryor would love to break loose in his home state, but Penn State's defense is not one you want to be facing when you're mired in a slump. Expect mistakes, and expect the crowd to pile on the noise as the game wears on. It should shape up to be a tough day for young Terrelle. Defense will rule, and Penn State's is better.

Penn State 17, Ohio State 9

2. LSU at Alabama

Alabama's time looks to be up, though the bye week they had may be just what Greg McElroy needed to work out the kinks. Conversely, it could also produce a sluggish first quarter as the Tide get back to game speed. LSU's best chance to put up points will be early. In the end, Alabama won't be able to ride a wave of field goals as they have been, and LSU sticks a dagger into old pal Nick Saban.

LSU 20, Alabama 13

3. Oklahoma at Nebraska

Was I that wrong on Nebraska a month ago? I touted them with such superlatives as "most underrated team in the country" and "national title contender", then they flopped against Texas Tech and put up one of the all-time stinkers against Iowa State. Maybe they were a house of cards after all.

Oklahoma 34, Nebraska 17

4. Florida State at Clemson

The Seminoles have won their last 2, temporarily ending the calls for Bobby Bowden's head and looking like a pretty decent team after all. Christian Ponder has the offense clicking, and they've had to be - the defense is very soft. They can amazingly still win the ACC Atlantic, or whichever of the two their in, though Clemson could put a nail in that coffin this weekend. The Tigers are 5-3 but are very close to 8-0, losing by 3 to Georgia Tech, 4 to TCU, and 3 to Maryland. Not bad. Clemson has to be considered the favorite in their ACC division, and they'll remove another contender from the running this week.

Clemson 38, Florida State 35

5. Oregon at Stanford

Letdown time for Oregon? Stanford's not lost at home yet, and haven't really been challenged much there either. The Ducks will have to be ready for the Cardinal or they could be the latest to find themselves on the chopping block of championship contenders. I think they will be - they have momentum that doesn't appear ready to stop.

Oregon 34, Stanford 24

6. USC at Arizona State

Something tells me Pete Carroll will have the defense amped up and flying around Saturday night.

USC 30, Arizona State 13

7. Oregon State at California

Cal is sneaking their way back into the national attention span. Don't be surprised if they're suddenly at the bottom of the top 10 at year's end. Meanwhile, no one's saying it, but isn't the Pac Ten the best overall conference this year? The Big 12 has Texas and a bunch of wannabes. The SEC is deep and good, as usual, but certainly not where they usually are. The ACC, Big Ten, and Big East can't keep up. And the Pac Ten has 6 good to great football teams, with some meat at the bottom too (minus Washington State). Each one of Pac Ten's top six, with the exception of USC, is currently underrated. Oregon has served notice that they're one of the top few teams in the country, and each of the others has some pop. Problem is, they'll keep beating up on one another and no one east of Colorado will notice. Until bowl season.

California 27, Oregon State 21

8. Virginia Tech at East Carolina

Confusingly, Virginia Tech has played East Carolina two straight seasons away from Lane Stadium, last year in Charlotte and Thursday in Greenville. Whatever happened to forcing lesser-conference teams to come to your place for some cash? It didn't work out last year for the Hokies, and could be disastrous this year too, as they limp into Greenville with their tails between their legs. But this could also be a great chance to get back on track, stepping out of conference to play a good opponent on the road. Look for VT to snap out of it against Skip Holtz's Pirates.

Virginia Tech 23, East Carolina 10

9. Northwestern at Iowa

I want to pick the upset here, I really do. But Northwestern isn't much better than Indiana, and Iowa had to do all they could to hand the game to the Hoosiers. Iowa has not played well at home all season, and they owe their fans a breather for a change. Iowa survives another week. But their time will come. I think.

Iowa 27, Northwestern 14

10. South Carolina at Arkansas

South Carolina continues their typical late season slide.

Arkansas 31, South Carolina 24

11. Kansas at Kansas State

Kansas State has been steadily improving all season long and still control their own destiny in the Big 12 North. They also have Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri remaining, so their work is cut out for them. Kansas faces a must win here if they hope to have any shot at the division win. They're fading fast, though, and have some inner turmoil as Todd Reesing was benched last weekend.

Kansas State 35, Kansas 31

12. Duke at North Carolina

Can Duke's improbable chase for an ACC division title continue? Or will their basketball rival relish the chance to crush their dreams on the eve of basketball season? Choose the latter, and consider it a shot across the Blue Devils' bow as the Carolina priority sport fast approaches.

North Carolina 23, Duke 20

13. Connecticut at Cincinnati

As mentioned, this could be a tight one for the Bearcats. They've yet to play a really close game, so how they will react when pressed will say a lot about them. The question is, will that adversity come this week? I think it will - UConn is tough and still bonded and motivated by the loss of Jasper Howard. They'd love to get their moment in the spotlight to honor their fallen teammate. But they've also been a hard-luck bunch, having victory snatched away from them very late in the last 2 games. And Cincinnati, again, has shut the mouths of all the naysayers so far. Brian Kelly has proven his worth as a coach, and when adversity comes, he'll most likely have this team prepared to handle it.

Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 28

14. Oklahoma State at Iowa State

Oklahoma State ought to vent some frustration on Iowa State, who's been surprising this year but has nowhere near the talent of the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State 42, Iowa State 21

15. Navy at Notre Dame

Two years ago Navy won the hearts of the college football world with their at-long-last victory at Notre Dame Stadium. That win broke a 43-year long drought. Another one here would break a much shorter, one-year drought, but the Irish are a much better team. Navy will keep it close by controlling the clock and frustrating Notre Dame's defense. But their own defense doesn't have an answer for Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate.

Notre Dame 31, Navy 24

Next: I'll be in State College Saturday, so any Saturday postgame that might be posted will largely revolve around the PSU-OSU game. Whether it will actually happen remains to be seen. Stay tuned.