If that would happen, the door would swing wide open for a team like TCU, currently fourth in the latest BCS standings, to step into the national championship game. Remember that Florida and Alabama will play what will essentially be a semifinal game in the SEC Championship. TCU and Cincinnati would grapple for the other open spot, and as it stands now, TCU rests ahead of the Bearcats by a few percentage points. If Cincy wins out, which would include a win at top-10 Pittsburgh, they could very easily leapfrog TCU into the #2 spot, but let's say they don't. For the sake of argument, remember?
That would match TCU against the Florida-Alabama winner for the BCS national championship. Awesome, right? The ultimate David vs. Goliath battle. The school from one of the conferences essentially discarded by the BCS when this whole experiment started gets their shot at the ultimate prize. Fans of the underdog would everywhere rejoice, and the nation would rally around little-guy TCU and their once-in-a-million championship chance. It would certainly add sizzle to the bowl season.
But be careful what you wish for. TCU improbably making the national championship game would ultimately be bad for college football. Craig Thompson, commissioner of the very Mountain West conference where TCU hails from, has been the man spearheading the BCS-as-unconstitutional movement, lobbying in Congress for a playoff system. One of the main arguments of this movement is the fairness of the system, or better, the unfairness of it. The argument states that it's all but impossible for a team from a non-AQ conference to have a fair shot at a national championship. They say the system is rigged against the little guy.
If TCU makes the national championship game, it would empower the BCS bigwigs to say, "See! The system is fine. A team from any conference can win a national championship - just look at TCU in 2009! Of course the BCS is a fair and legitimate determiner of the best team in college football." The Horned Frogs would become the poster child for the BCS-is-fair movement, and any move toward a playoff would be severely hindered. In the end, it could be very bad for college football as a whole, as it would open the door for many more years of the same-old, same-old BCS business.
My advice to TCU, and Boise State for that matter: throw a game! Do it for the greater good! Sacrifice yourselves for the sake of all the little guys who look up to you!
Just kidding. Kind of. In actuality, it would be sweet if TCU made the championship game. What an underdog, David vs. Goliath story that would be!
And on to the picks in what appears to be an underwhelming week (but we all know will entertain nonetheless, and could be the week that shakes the whole race up - you never know).
1. Penn State at Michigan State
Critics of Penn State will point out the fact that the Nittany Lions have beaten absolutely no one this year, which is mostly true, though a rejuvenated Temple may argue that fact. Yet in spite of the lack of meat on PSU's win column, you can't fault them for beating who they should have beaten. Isn't that what separates top notch programs with the Clemsons and Virginia Techs of the world? And it should also be noted, while we're on the subject, that PSU all but gave Iowa the game, with the 2 Hawkeye TDs coming on a punt block and a very short field after an INT. The better team won, sure, but the 21-10 score isn't indicative of how well Penn State's defense played or how close the game actually was. Also in spite of the 9 "weak" wins, Penn State is one win away from a BCS bowl, in what will end up being their toughest road game of the year. The Nittany Lion offense may again struggle, but their defense will smother the Spartans and do enough to get PSU to a win. And the Fiesta Bowl will be happy to snatch up an at-large Penn State team.
Penn State 20, Michigan State 13
2. Ohio State at Michigan
Fact: if Michigan loses (obvious hint: they will), they'll have lost 2 out of every 3 games played during RichRod's head coaching tenure. But they'll still have not lost a bowl game in 2 seasons!
Ohio State 28, Michigan 10
3. LSU at Mississippi
I can't quite make sense of LSU. Twice they've pushed the top 2 teams in the country to the near-limit, and on several other occasions they've barely managed to squeak by mediocre competition (Washington, Miss. St., most recently La. Tech). Is it inconsistency, or is it a sign that maybe Florida and Alabama, even with the perception of them as flawed teams, are not even as strong as everyone assumes? LSU gets Ole Miss this week, who's hatred for them is barely given a bat of an eye in reciprocation. Ole Miss played their best game of the year last week, and seem to be coming around to be the team people thought they might be this year. Dexter McCluster has another big week in leading the Rebels to the upset.
Mississippi 31, LSU 24
4. Oregon at Arizona
Arguably the most important game of the week, though an Arizona win would only muddy the Pac Ten waters even more so than they currently are. Arizona is a tough place to play, but I think Oregon is the class of the conference and should prove it here. The loss to Stanford was more USC hangover than anything.
Oregon 27, Arizona 17
5. California at Stanford
The Big Game happens to be the only matchup of top 25 teams this week (#25 Cal and #17 Stanford). Toby Gerhart has gotten some major Heisman love lately, and for good reason. He should keep up his torrid tear through the Pac Ten by goring the middle of the Cal defense.
Stanford 37, California 24
6. Kansas at Texas
Texas may lose at some point, but it won't be here. The Longhorns are the best team in the country, bar none, right now, and Kansas has plummeted all the way to the bottom of the lowly Big 12 North. And that's not easy to do.
Texas 52, Kansas 14
7. Minnesota at Iowa
They play for a bronzed pig named "Floyd". How marvelously Midwestern. Iowa should stop their slide, and Minnesota attempts to get excited at the thought of playing in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Is anyone else surprised Little Caesar's still exists? Is their tagline still "Pizza! Pizza!"? I need to know these things!
Iowa 24, Minnesota 20
8. North Carolina at Boston College
The best the ACC has to offer this week, as the surging Tar Heels go into the cold to face Boston College, who holds out hope of winning their division. They'd need a Clemson loss to Virginia, and if Clemson's history has anything to say about it, their hope may not be as slim as most think. North Carolina is clearly the better team, but home field advantage pulls the scrappy Eagles to the win.
Boston College 23, North Carolina 22
9. Kansas State at Nebraska
The de facto Big 12 North championship game, and no one will see it because the main broadcast carrier is web-based ESPN360. Doesn't matter, unless Nebraska bumbles their way to 8 turnovers again, they'll win easily.
Nebraska 35, Kansas State 17
10. Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Could be entertaining, and it will be interesting to see how Bob Stoops guides his team through the last 2 weeks (@TT, home for Oklahoma State). The Sooners could end up 6-6 just as easily as they could 8-4. Count on the latter - Stoops isn't paid over $4 million a year because he looks good in crimson.
Oklahoma 38, Texas Tech 30
11. Connecticut at Notre Dame
Could end up being Charlie Weis's last victory on the sideline of the Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame 27, Connecticut 24
12. Wisconsin at Northwestern
A Wisconsin win and they silently sneak up on a 10-win regular season. Bet you didn't see that coming!
Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 17
13. Kentucky at Georgia
With an absolute paucity of intriguing games, I'm left scraping the boring middle of the nation's power conferences. Yawn. Georgia in a snoozer.
Georgia 34, Kentucky 20
14. Arizona State at UCLA
Ugh - is this really what I have to work with this week? At least these teams have the motivation of fighting for bowl eligibility, though we all know that's a bit like fighting for 20th in a NASCAR race. It's boring and no one remembers who finished 20th.
Arizona State 21, UCLA 14
15. Air Force at BYU
I have to step away from the power conferences - Iowa State at Missouri was the only viable choice and I'm not going there. At least Air Force can keep BYU off balance with their triple option, and service academies just love making things interesting for religious institutions. Just ask Notre Dame. BYU wins, but Air Force makes them work for it.
BYU 30, Air Force 17
Next: no Saturday wrap-up, I'll be away at a conference. And with all the boredom in the offing, I'd probably be asleep on the couch anyway, drool and tortilla chip crumbs dotting the front of my previously pristine white #2 Penn State jersey.
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