So...let's take a look at each undefeated team and size up their chances to enter the Christmas season with a bagel in the loss column.
1. Florida
Record: 8-0
Remaining Schedule: Vanderbilt, @South Carolina, Florida International, Florida State, SEC Championship
Toughest Test: SEC Championship (possibly v. Alabama?)
Upset Watch: @South Carolina
My Two Cents: The Gators may be getting back on the rails after their throttling of Georgia and their ill-conceived black helmets. We'll find out more this week - if they put up 50 against lowly Vandy and couple that with a dominant defensive performance, that's a good sign that they've shaken their midseason funk. With Alabama looking dodgy, Gators are emerging as the most probable last man standing in the SEC.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 70%
2. Texas
Record: 8-0
Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Baylor, Kansas, @Texas A&M, (most likely) Big 12 Championship
Toughest Test: @Texas A&M (maybe)
Upset Watch: @Baylor
My Two Cents: Consensus is that they can play at half speed and win the rest. I'm not as sold on that. We're bordering on the syndrome I mentioned a few weeks ago - when you're penciled in to the title game, it goes to your head and you're vulnerable for a big fall. Call it the Proverbs 16:18 Syndrome: Pride goes before destruction. Remember Penn State last year - a week after winning in the Horseshoe everyone wrote them into the national championship game, then came the disaster in Iowa City. And for an in-conference example, remember Oklahoma in 2003, who were widely regarded as the greatest college team ever, then promptly lost to a pedestrian Kansas State team 35-7 on a cold night in Kansas City for the Big 12 Championship. Don't think that can't happen to Texas - in Waco, in College Station, or even against whoever the Big 12 North can muster.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 75% (even amid the gloom and doom talk above)
3. Alabama
Record: 8-0
Remaining Schedule: LSU, @Mississippi State, Chattanooga, @Auburn, possible SEC Championship game
Toughest Test: LSU
Upset Watch: @Mississippi State
My Two Cents: By far the hardest road for any of the remaining undefeateds. Combine the way Alabama's offense has looked in recent weeks with the difficult schedule, and it's hard to see them running the table. Even with that defense. Just making the SEC Championship game would be an excellent achievement.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 20%
4. Iowa
Record: 9-0
Remaining Schedule: Northwestern, @Ohio State, Minnesota
Toughest Test: @Ohio State
Upset Watch: Northwestern
My Two Cents: Is it luck or is it an uncannily steely fourth quarter resolve? Appears to be a bit of both. Last week I compared the Hawkeyes to 2002 Ohio State, and I realized a better comparison may be to the 1999 Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State ran out to 9-0 but had their fair share of narrow escapes: blocked field goal as time expired against Pitt, 80-yard TD pass to beat Miami, holding Drew Brees and Purdue on 4 straight plays from inside the 10. The tables finally turned on that dark day in Happy Valley when Minnesota fluked their way to an upset (I'm not still bitter. I'm not.). Iowa looks like a team who's time will run out soon.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 25%
5. Cincinnati
Record: 8-0
Remaining Schedule: Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois, @Pittsburgh
Toughest Test: @Pittsburgh
Upset Watch: Connecticut
My Two Cents: A tough stretch coming up, but this team has passed every test thus far with flying colors. And they're doing it now with a backup QB who looks every bit as good as the starter. The Bearcats have dispelled all doubts so far, why not expect them to continue? Look out for this Saturday though - UConn has played everyone tough and Cincy could have some major jitters as they have their chance in the national spotlight with an 8:00 start on ABC.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 50%
6. TCU
Record: 8-0
Remaining Schedule: @San Diego State, Utah, @Wyoming, New Mexico
Toughest Test: Utah
Upset Watch: @Wyoming?
My Two Cents: Getting stronger every week, but will need loads of help to get into the title game even if they're the only undefeated team left. It's hard to see any of their remaining opponents matching up with them, so if they play like they have been, their spot in the BCS sun should arrive soon.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 80%
7. Boise State
Record: 8-0
Remaining Schedule: @Louisiana Tech, Idaho, @Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico State
Toughest Test: Idaho
Upset Watch: @Louisiana Tech
My Two Cents: They need to get themselves out of such a pathetic conference. With the quality of their remaining opponents, they've probably hit their ceiling rankings-wise.
Chance of Finishing Undefeated: 85%
So there you have it - Florida, Texas, TCU, and Boise State will likely finish undefeated, and Cincinnati is looking decent too. Will it play out that way? No, but it would sure make me look good if it did!
On to this week. Lots of home teams and non-upsets color the fifteen. Am I getting too conservative? Maybe, but I just don't see this being an upset-laden weekend.
1. Ohio State at Penn State
Ooh baby, I'm starting to salivate over this game already. We Penn Staters abhor Michigan more than any other, but Ohio State is probably our biggest current rival (though the very real possibility of playing Pitt in a major bowl game would trigger some major old school venom). Games between these two have almost always been close, and this year looks no different. The X-factor is Terrelle Pryor. Will he finally live up to his billing as the top recruit who had 4 schools chasing him around like a horse chasing a carrot well past signing day? Or will he continue his unimpressive management of the Ohio State offense and wilt under the hot breath of 110,000 white-clad voiceboxes? Pryor would love to break loose in his home state, but Penn State's defense is not one you want to be facing when you're mired in a slump. Expect mistakes, and expect the crowd to pile on the noise as the game wears on. It should shape up to be a tough day for young Terrelle. Defense will rule, and Penn State's is better.
Penn State 17, Ohio State 9
2. LSU at Alabama
Alabama's time looks to be up, though the bye week they had may be just what Greg McElroy needed to work out the kinks. Conversely, it could also produce a sluggish first quarter as the Tide get back to game speed. LSU's best chance to put up points will be early. In the end, Alabama won't be able to ride a wave of field goals as they have been, and LSU sticks a dagger into old pal Nick Saban.
LSU 20, Alabama 13
3. Oklahoma at Nebraska
Was I that wrong on Nebraska a month ago? I touted them with such superlatives as "most underrated team in the country" and "national title contender", then they flopped against Texas Tech and put up one of the all-time stinkers against Iowa State. Maybe they were a house of cards after all.
Oklahoma 34, Nebraska 17
4. Florida State at Clemson
The Seminoles have won their last 2, temporarily ending the calls for Bobby Bowden's head and looking like a pretty decent team after all. Christian Ponder has the offense clicking, and they've had to be - the defense is very soft. They can amazingly still win the ACC Atlantic, or whichever of the two their in, though Clemson could put a nail in that coffin this weekend. The Tigers are 5-3 but are very close to 8-0, losing by 3 to Georgia Tech, 4 to TCU, and 3 to Maryland. Not bad. Clemson has to be considered the favorite in their ACC division, and they'll remove another contender from the running this week.
Clemson 38, Florida State 35
5. Oregon at Stanford
Letdown time for Oregon? Stanford's not lost at home yet, and haven't really been challenged much there either. The Ducks will have to be ready for the Cardinal or they could be the latest to find themselves on the chopping block of championship contenders. I think they will be - they have momentum that doesn't appear ready to stop.
Oregon 34, Stanford 24
6. USC at Arizona State
Something tells me Pete Carroll will have the defense amped up and flying around Saturday night.
USC 30, Arizona State 13
7. Oregon State at California
Cal is sneaking their way back into the national attention span. Don't be surprised if they're suddenly at the bottom of the top 10 at year's end. Meanwhile, no one's saying it, but isn't the Pac Ten the best overall conference this year? The Big 12 has Texas and a bunch of wannabes. The SEC is deep and good, as usual, but certainly not where they usually are. The ACC, Big Ten, and Big East can't keep up. And the Pac Ten has 6 good to great football teams, with some meat at the bottom too (minus Washington State). Each one of Pac Ten's top six, with the exception of USC, is currently underrated. Oregon has served notice that they're one of the top few teams in the country, and each of the others has some pop. Problem is, they'll keep beating up on one another and no one east of Colorado will notice. Until bowl season.
California 27, Oregon State 21
8. Virginia Tech at East Carolina
Confusingly, Virginia Tech has played East Carolina two straight seasons away from Lane Stadium, last year in Charlotte and Thursday in Greenville. Whatever happened to forcing lesser-conference teams to come to your place for some cash? It didn't work out last year for the Hokies, and could be disastrous this year too, as they limp into Greenville with their tails between their legs. But this could also be a great chance to get back on track, stepping out of conference to play a good opponent on the road. Look for VT to snap out of it against Skip Holtz's Pirates.
Virginia Tech 23, East Carolina 10
9. Northwestern at Iowa
I want to pick the upset here, I really do. But Northwestern isn't much better than Indiana, and Iowa had to do all they could to hand the game to the Hoosiers. Iowa has not played well at home all season, and they owe their fans a breather for a change. Iowa survives another week. But their time will come. I think.
Iowa 27, Northwestern 14
10. South Carolina at Arkansas
South Carolina continues their typical late season slide.
Arkansas 31, South Carolina 24
11. Kansas at Kansas State
Kansas State has been steadily improving all season long and still control their own destiny in the Big 12 North. They also have Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri remaining, so their work is cut out for them. Kansas faces a must win here if they hope to have any shot at the division win. They're fading fast, though, and have some inner turmoil as Todd Reesing was benched last weekend.
Kansas State 35, Kansas 31
12. Duke at North Carolina
Can Duke's improbable chase for an ACC division title continue? Or will their basketball rival relish the chance to crush their dreams on the eve of basketball season? Choose the latter, and consider it a shot across the Blue Devils' bow as the Carolina priority sport fast approaches.
North Carolina 23, Duke 20
13. Connecticut at Cincinnati
As mentioned, this could be a tight one for the Bearcats. They've yet to play a really close game, so how they will react when pressed will say a lot about them. The question is, will that adversity come this week? I think it will - UConn is tough and still bonded and motivated by the loss of Jasper Howard. They'd love to get their moment in the spotlight to honor their fallen teammate. But they've also been a hard-luck bunch, having victory snatched away from them very late in the last 2 games. And Cincinnati, again, has shut the mouths of all the naysayers so far. Brian Kelly has proven his worth as a coach, and when adversity comes, he'll most likely have this team prepared to handle it.
Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 28
14. Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Oklahoma State ought to vent some frustration on Iowa State, who's been surprising this year but has nowhere near the talent of the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State 42, Iowa State 21
15. Navy at Notre Dame
Two years ago Navy won the hearts of the college football world with their at-long-last victory at Notre Dame Stadium. That win broke a 43-year long drought. Another one here would break a much shorter, one-year drought, but the Irish are a much better team. Navy will keep it close by controlling the clock and frustrating Notre Dame's defense. But their own defense doesn't have an answer for Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate.
Notre Dame 31, Navy 24
Next: I'll be in State College Saturday, so any Saturday postgame that might be posted will largely revolve around the PSU-OSU game. Whether it will actually happen remains to be seen. Stay tuned.
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