Saturday, December 5, 2009

Saturday Postgame: Week 14

An assortment of thoughts and observations from a Championship weekend of fantastic games and crazy finishes:

There was certainly a buzz surrounding the 5 biggest games of the weekend, the ones deciding major conference championships. More than any other weekend of the year there was a sense of expectancy and tension that's been missing most Saturdays this season. It was refreshing and made the games more dramatic. Also, sometimes they call me "Captain Obvious".

On Wednesday I made an analogy comparing this week's shock potential to the awestruck surprise that hits a person when they first arrive at the Grand Canyon's edge, after little to no warning from the surrounding landscape. Little did I know that the biggest shock would be produced by Alabama crushing Florida. Many predicted Alabama to win, but no one, repeat, no one, envisioned the Crimson Tide rolling over the Gators in the way they did this afternoon. From start to finish, Alabama dominated in every phase of the game. Defense, quarterback play, game plan, intensity, interior line play - the Crimson Tide had the upper hand in it all. Their 17-play, 88-yard game clinching drive was astounding to watch. The Florida defense, ranked in the top 5 in the country, was absolutely dominated during the drive, as Alabama ran inside run after inside run, daring the Florida defense to be more physical than them. The Tide threw 3 passes in those 17 plays. There's nothing more demoralizing to a defense than being unable to stop runs up the middle. It was a bit like watching the heavyweight champion get knocked around in the 11th round, followed by a standing 8-count and a TKO. Mark Ingram dealt the kill shot. And Greg McElroy becomes one of the top 5 QB's in Alabama lore. One more game winning drive like that and he's close to folk hero status in the state of Alabama.

Speaking of shock value, we were about one foot - the distance between the football and the goal post on Hunter Lawrence's last second kick - from the most shocking result of the season, one that would have been the equivalent of a 7.8 Richter scale earthquake on the college football landscape. But Lawrence was as clutch as can be, Vinatieriesque even, in nailing the pressure-packed kick. What a game that turned out to be, and nearly became the latest Big 12 Championship game to produce a season-altering upset. Nebraska's defense produced what was essentially a no-hitter, with a suffocating defensive line and a ballhawking secondary. One of the best overall defensive performances ever. Had they held on to win, comparisons would have to be made to Penn State's 1986 Fiesta Bowl performance, when they shut down Heisman winner Vinny Testaverde and Miami's prolific offense. The Cornhusker offense had 5 first downs! And it took a last second 46-yard field goal for them to be beaten. Wow.

Did Colt McCoy have one of the biggest brain farts ever when he let the clock run down nearly to zero at the end of the game? Or is he one of the coolest customers ever in pushing things that close. Did he learn something from their loss to Texas Tech last year, when Harrell hit Crabtree with one second left on a deep ball, when a simple field goal would have sufficed? McCoy's near-blunder would have made Les Miles look like Socrates.

Ndamukong Suh is a beast. A defensive lineman with 4.5 sacks is unheard of. If he's not the first player taken in next year's NFL draft, consider that team moronic. That pick should be automatic.

It's hard not to feel bad for Tim Tebow. It seemed inevitable that he'd win a third national championship, possibly a second Heisman, and earn a spot amongst the greatest players in college football history, certainly the greatest of the past 20 years. But perhaps we all got carried away with the superlatives, and on my part, carried away with the assumption that Tebow could simply will his team to win. The better team won today, and Tim Tebow couldn't do anything about it. He'll still go down as the best player of his generation and remains one of the best leaders of all time. That status was cemented long ago. And don't expect him to wilt from here on out, he's got his priorities in line - just take a look at the Bible verses he jots onto his eye black to remind you of that - and he'll bounce back quickly.

Speaking of feeling bad, you have to feel awful for Pitt's holder Andrew Janocko, whose bobbled snap led to a missed extra point that ended up being the deciding one point deficit in the Panthers' heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati. He's certainly not the reason the team lost - the defense had a chance to stop Cincy and Pitt blew a 21 point lead - but Janocko will go down as the goat. He'll bounce back too - he's a good kid and Dave Wannstedt will coach him through it.

I think Brian Kelly is being a bit too flippant in "entertaining" the notion of taking the Notre Dame job (his words). He may deeply desire the job, but he's at the helm of an undefeated team, one that was nearly in the national championship game. His talk of considering the job leads you to believe that he'd take it even before Cincinnati's bowl game. Imagine if he left a national championship team before the championship tilt?

Pitt's Dion Lewis had 47 carries today! I can't remember a back ever toting the ball that many times. And he's not a big dude. He'll need the month off before their bowl game.

Isn't it amazing that of the 5 major conference championship games, only Florida-Alabama was a blowout? Every other game was decided on the last possession.

The weirdest and wildest finish all season happened in Champaign, Illinois. In case you missed it: Fresno State scored (on a ridiculous effort, mind you) with 2 seconds remaining to cut Illinois' lead to 52-51 (this was football, not basketball). An extra point, and they're in overtime. But Pat Hill sent the offense back out to win it then and there. Bold move, but a smart one considering the fact that neither team could stop the other all day. Fresno's QB couldn't find an open receiver, scrambled, got some heat, and was forced to heave the ball toward a well-covered receiver. Then the craziness ensued. The ball was tipped and deflected directly to an offensive lineman who was smartly trailing the play, who gathered it into his stomach and crammed his way into the end zone for the most unlikely of 2-point conversions.

USC's fourth loss gives them a 5th place tie in the Pac Ten. My, how the mighty have fallen. Won't it be nice to see USC in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, or the prestigious Emerald Bowl? (Giggling)

In the department of "Hilarious", Notre Dame decided that it wouldn't accept a bowl invitation, the reason given for the decision being "unique circumstances". The spin is that the search for Charlie Weis's replacement is underway and would preclude the Irish from playing another game. That's true, although something tells me it isn't the only reason Notre Dame will be staying home this Christmas. The Fighting Irish have a lot of pride, and going to a place like Toronto for a bowl would be, in their minds, beneath the prestige of their program. They're unwilling to admit that their program hasn't been among the top 25 in the nation for over a decade. Open your eyes, Irish - your decision to stubbornly remain independent in a world of conferences has hurt you much more than you realize. If the Irish were smart, they'd find an up-and-coming coach (not a huge name), and make a beeline to join the Big Ten as soon as possible. No matter how much they think they can sustain themselves at a high level while being independent, it's not going to happen. They may have a good year here and there, but they need a conference as much as the Big Ten needs them. It probably won't happen, but it should.

After a fairly dull season, these last 2 weeks have more than made up for it. Not in the way of BCS-destroying upsets, but in the way of immensely entertaining games and chaotic, wild finishes. There were more than a dozen memorable games that went down to the very end, many having a direct affect on the BCS bowl structure. Not much changed in the way of the final outcome, but wow, was it fun to watch on the way there. College football lived up to the hype these last 2 weeks. Should be a great bowl season (although I still have a hard time looking at bowls as anything more than meaningless exhibitions, save one).

BCS Bowl forecast:
National Championship: Alabama v. Texas
Rose: Oregon v. Ohio State
Sugar: Florida v. Boise State
Fiesta: TCU v. Cincinnati
Orange: Georgia Tech v. Penn State

Heisman top 5 forecast:
1) Mark Ingram
2) Colt McCoy
3) Toby Gerhart
4) Ndamukong Suh
5) Tim Tebow

Next week: a week off from predicting to review the regular season through a list of superlatives.

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