That scenario describes what could come about this college football season. So far, it's been a pretty flat, boring two-lane highway through the desert. Nothing much to look at, a few interesting happenings and small surprises along the way. But, if you've been a fan of college football for long enough, you have a palpable sense of something large and seismic about to happen. Like the Grand Canyon appearing out of nowhere, shocking you and causing you to stare in amazement and say "Wow!" There have been very little in the way of signs to say that it will happen, but chances are it will. It's just the way college football is, and those who follow it closely know that. This past weekend could have been the arrival at the national park gate - some distant glimpses of an amazing sight beyond - and this weekend could be our arrival at the canyon's edge.
The reason being that this championship weekend has more conference championships on the line than any before it. Five of the six BCS conferences will decide their champion in winner-take-all games: the three with formal championship games, plus de facto championship games in Eugene, Oregon and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. There is great uncertainty in who will play in the BCS games, and by reciprocation any of the bowl games. There is the very real possibility that TCU, from the Mountain West conference, could occupy a spot in the national title game after it's all said and done. Will we step back on Saturday night and exclaim, "Wow!", or will the long flat road continue? Only time will tell. Here's one man's prediction on what will happen.
1. SEC Championship: Florida vs. Alabama
I can't ever remember a game being this inevitable from so early in the season. By early October you just knew an undefeated Florida would play an undefeated Alabama for the SEC title. And now it's finally here. There are probably tons that could be said about this one, but for me it comes down to Tebow. He's such an intense competitor and incredible leader that I can't see Florida losing this game while he's at the helm. The loss of Carlos Dunlap (suspended for a DUI arrest - moronic move) will hurt, but even without him Florida's defense ought to be able to contain what can be a sluggish Bama offense. Mark Ingram's 32-yard lemon at Auburn ought to be a concern for Crimson Tide fans. Greg McElroy cannot carry his team to victory against the Florida defense, or in a duel with Tim Tebow. And while it will be difficult, I do expect Tebow to find ways to move the ball and score on Alabama's top-flight defense. It will be hard-hitting, intense, and memorable, but in the end last year's result will be repeated.
Florida 24, Alabama 16
2. Big 12 Championship: Texas vs. Nebraska
Nebraska may be able to slow down the white-hot Texas offense, but the Huskers are ranked 92nd in the country in total offense. Not a good number when you're facing a very good Texas defense. Even if Nebraska manages to keep McCoy and the Longhorns under 30, they'll still face an uphill battle. I think this could get out of hand early.
Texas 38, Nebraska 13
3. ACC Championship: Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Any sheen or luster on this game tarnished quickly last Saturday, as the SEC asserted itself quite rudely against the ACC's best offering. But a conference champion will still be crowned and a BCS bowl berth given out. Clemson came back from 21 down at Georgia Tech earlier this year, only to fall by a field goal late. The Tigers are better team than when they played that game, and I'm not sure Georgia Tech is. The Yellow Jackets couldn't keep the Georgia running attack off the field last week, and C.J. Spiller is more talented than any back the Bulldogs had. Clemson pulls the upset and makes me look like a genius with my preseason pick of them to win the ACC.
Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 27
4. Oregon State at Oregon
It's safe to say that this is the biggest Civil War game ever. Never before have the two Oregon schools met with a Pac Ten title on the line. Maybe the country will take notice of one of the most underrated rivalries in college football. It's Auburn-Alabama lite. I've said all year that Oregon is the class of the Pac Ten, and in spite of the yearly rise of Oregon State from mediocrity to the top third of the Pac Ten, the Ducks are my pick. Home field advantage and a brutal running attack will be too much for the less-talented Beavers.
Oregon 35, Oregon State 24
5. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Cincinnati's last 3 results: 47-45 win over UConn, 24-21 win over WVU, 49-36 win over Illinois. All at home. Those do not look like the results of an undefeated conference winner. They look like the results of a team that peaked too early. Cincy's schedule is soft, with two current ranked teams on the slate: Oregon State and West Virginia. This is definitely their toughest test of the year, and they're not playing at the same level they once were. Their offense is still very productive and hard to stop, but the defense seems to have become the inexperienced, untested bunch everyone thought it would be when the season began. If it becomes a shootout, Pitt can keep up - their offense is balanced and will use lots of clock, and Cincy will struggle to stop them.
Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 28
6. C-USA Championship: Houston at East Carolina
The major conferences aren't the only ones with championships to decide this weekend. Houston and their fast break offense rolls into Greenville, NC, in what amounts to be a road game. Tough break. Houston may have put up some silly numbers all year, but they've been more than shaky on defense and have had several too-close-for-comfort games. Their record of 10-2 isn't a true reflection of how good they are. Patrick Pinkney and East Carolina can and will score, and will pull a minor upset.
East Carolina 38, Houston 35
7. MAC Championship: Ohio vs. Central Michigan
Tim Tebow light, Dan LeFevour, is more experienced and talented than anyone on Ohio's roster. He'll power the Chippewas to the conference title.
Central Michigan 30, Ohio 20
8. West Virginia at Rutgers
Rutgers has been an odd team this year. Their non-conference schedule is abysmal and gives you nothing to evaluate them by. They blew out South Florida, got blown out by Syracuse, and gave Pitt all they could handle. They're clearly better at home than away. All marks of youth and inexperience. But they are at home this week, and that could be trouble for West Virginia. WVU has played pretty much to the level of their competition, and could be due to stumble after last week's win. Things often change drastically from week to week in college football, and just because the Mountaineers put up an inspired effort to beat Pitt doesn't mean they'll put forth the same effort at Rutgers.
Rutgers 24, West Virginia 23
9. Arizona at USC
ESPN's Pat Forde noted that USC's offensive and defensive units both rank in the 40's nationally. Very un-Trojanlike. What that tells me is that the Trojans maybe aren't as good as their record indicates. And Arizona always plays USC tough. An Arizona upset means that USC is staring at the Emerald Bowl.
Arizona 27, USC 20
10. California at Washington
The Golden Bears put a nice bow on their turnaround - they were crushed by both USC and Oregon, then fell flat on their faces at home against Oregon State a few weeks later. Since that loss they've beaten two excellent teams, Arizona and Stanford.
California 28, Washington 13
11. South Florida at Connecticut
One gets the sense that UConn's win at Notre Dame was the breaking of a glass ceiling. They proceeded to stamp 56 on Syracuse a week later and seem to have ended their season-long habit of losing close games. They win a close one this time, and honor the memory of Jasper Howard with a home win to close out the season.
Connecticut 23, South Florida 17
12. New Mexico State at Boise State
The punctuated slate of games means I'm left picking such games as these. An upset here is about as likely as Tiger Woods inexplicably crashing his car into a fire hydrant and a tree while pulling out of his own driveway at 2:30am. Oh wait...
Boise State 59, New Mexico State 21
13. Wisconsin at Hawaii
The first of a pair of Big Ten vs. WAC showdowns. The Big Ten gets the nod in this one, not so sure about the next.
Wisconsin 33, Hawaii 20
14. Fresno State at Illinois
Fresno State loves to go on the road and beat big name programs, and they've already come close twice this year, losing in OT at Wisconsin and narrowly missing a big upset at Cincinnati. Because Pat Hill and his gang relish these opportunities, they'll be far more ready for this game than Illinois, in spite of the early (9:30am Pacific Time) kickoff. Illinois just wants the season to be over.
Fresno State 24, Illinois 17
15. Florida Atlantic at Florida International
My once a year Sun Belt conference game pick, which happens on this weekend of the season every year. Trust me, it's out of necessity only - I know nothing of the Sun Belt hierarchy. Florida International is at home and I like picking home teams. They have made some slow improvement over the past few years too, they once were the worst team in Division 1-A. And Isiah Thomas is their head basketball coach, that's got to count for something, right? Maybe a successful extra point?
Florida International 21, Florida Atlantic 20
Next: a Saturday evening visit to the Grand Canyon
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