Week 9: Tecmo Bowl and the College Football Playoffs

I’m old enough to remember when the original Nintendo made its debut, permanently etching video games into popular culture and changing the lives of 30-35 year old single men forever. The rudimentary technology made it nearly impossible to design playable sports games, and the video game landscape was dominated by the the two-dimensional, scrolling screen titles, like Super Mario Brothers or the Legend of Zelda. Everything else was pretty dumb. Then along came Tecmo Bowl.

I don’t mean Tecmo Super Bowl, which remains the greatest game ever created, and still a joy to play (if you can find a copy and a useable system). Tecmo Bowl was its predecessor - the game that took the success of the two-dimensional, scrolling screen format and tailored it to football. The graphics were awful - gummy, oversized footballers gliding around a narrow field, often fading in and out of existence. The play selection was worse - 4 offensive choices ripped directly from a local 5th grade team’s playbook. But it used actual NFL players (other games couldn’t claim that right), and it was actually fun to play. Games moved quickly, the play selection process was simple, it was quirky enough to be kind of cute and entertaining, and it had an addictive quality to it. 

But the part of Tecmo Bowl that’s relevant to modern-day college football was it’s single-player format. It was best as a two-player game, but when you picked up the tiny rectangular controller and entered one-player mode, you entered a race to be undefeated. And you couldn’t save the game, so you were forced to go as far as possible in one sitting. The way it worked was, once you selected your team, the computer randomly selected an opponent from the 13 remaining sides, you played the game, and if you won it picked another random opponent for you to take down. Keep winning, and it kept assigning opponents until there was one left, and that was your Super Bowl, or “Tecmo Bowl”. And no matter who the opponent was each week, you could count on them getting progressively more difficult. In a sense, every game was a playoff game. You lost at any point, game over. Simple format, though unlike any in real life.

Unless, of course, you count major college football. Consider the similarities: 13 games, increasing progressive difficulty and pressure, a lose-and-you’re-out mentality, one big game for the championship at the end. Critics might say that this format is great for a video game, terrible for real sports, but I say think again. Tecmo Bowl’s format was fun because of it’s building pressure. You knew that at any point it could be all over. The pressure mounted, and the quick pace of the gameplay drew you into its feverish excitement. The same is true for college football. These teams know that one loss can be overcome, but it’s terribly unlikely. Essentially, it’s lose and go home. Over the course of the season it gets incredibly intense and exciting, and that tension only mounts as the weeks roll on. You want playoffs? I say you already have them.

Now, there are certainly flaws in the current system. Too many to get into in this column in fact. Perhaps another week. But with all its flaws, the college football season does deliver more excitement than any other American sport. And there’s no denying that moving to a traditionally styled playoff system (i.e. 8 or 16 teams in a bracketed format, a la college basketball or the NFL or NBA playoffs) would markedly diminish both the meaning and the excitement of the regular season. It would perhaps even destroy college football as we know it. The tension this time of year is enthralling, and it only builds as the weeks roll on. A playoff would cause most big games into mere bumps in the road. Sure, the 7 games of a playoff would be terribly exciting, but at what cost?

This season more than any I can remember is delivering this every-week-is-a-playoff feel week in and week out. The schedule has allowed contenders to play a series of difficult games, each more meaningful than the last. This week is a great example.

Missouri beats Oklahoma (much like a lower seeded team knocking off a top seed), now, in the next round, they face a difficult road game at Nebraska. Auburn beats contenders Arkansas and LSU on consecutive weeks, now they go on the road to face a testy Mississippi team. Oregon rolls through the first few rounds with little difficulty, now they visit perennial power USC. Michigan State goes through the first 2/3 of the “bracket” on a Cinderella run, now they face their toughest matchup to date at Iowa. Feels very much like an elimination-style playoff, doesn’t it? This zany season promises to continue this trend. Let’s only hope it does.

1. Michigan at Penn State

Yes, I just opened with a long lead-in to the week’s elimination contests, but this game still gets top billing. It’s Penn State-Michigan. Good vs. Evil. A raucous white-out at sold out Beaver Stadium. In prime time. And I’ll be there. Unless, of course, something drastic or otherworldly happens. This is my once-yearly trip back to the ol’ alma mater. Michigan admittedly brings in a better team, at least offensively. The questionable status of Rob Bolden complicates things severely for an already-poor PSU attack. Defensively, the Nittany Lions probably have the advantage, but they’re pretty banged up. But no matter how great the disparity in talent is, I’m not picking Michigan to beat Penn State. Not with the White House on full display, and not while I’m in attendance. Call me a homer - in this case I’ll fully own the label. In a close game, the home crowd and an inspired defense trip up Shoelace and the despicable Wolverines.

Penn State 23, Michigan 20

2. Michigan State at Iowa

Michigan State has walked a fine line this year, balancing luck, balance, and some coaching magic into an 8-0 start and #5 BCS ranking. There’s only one problem - they’re not a top 5 team in talent, and at some point you need that to kick in if you want to win all your games. This is the week they reveal that they’re not a great team, simply an above-average, well-coached one.

Iowa 24, Michigan State 14

3. Missouri at Nebraska

Classic letdown scenario. Just like when South Carolina was ambushed by Kentucky, clearly showing their mental or physical unpreparedness after a big home win. For Mizzou, they walk into Lincoln to face an angry Nebraska team with a chip on its shoulder. The Texas loss was embarrassing, and this game is Nebraska’s season. A loss here means it’s virtually impossible to make the Big 12 title game, and the Husker season DVD officially gains the title “Red Disappointment: the 2010 Nebraska Cornhuskers.” It’s hard to imagine Nebraska not playing its best game this weekend. And I’m just not sure Missouri will be able to match up, coming off such an emotional Saturday night.

Nebraska 24, Missouri 17

4. Auburn at Mississippi

I ought to have learned my lesson by now. I’ve now picked against Auburn 3 times, only to have the Tigers and Cam Newton prove me wrong. It’s tempting to go against them again, but if they’ve won tight, tough SEC games for 3 consecutive weeks, there’s no reason to assume they won’t win a fourth. That, and Mississippi lost to Jacksonville State not long ago. Any true national title contender shouldn’t even come close to that result.

Auburn 35, Mississippi 27

5. Oregon at USC

Most “experts” tag this as a close contest. Not me. USC looks average at best, despite both their losses coming on last-second field goals. Nothing about the Trojans has shown me that they’re more than an 8-win, 5th place Pac Ten team. Oregon beats them by at least 2 touchdowns.

Oregon 44, USC 27

6. Florida State at N.C. State

N.C. State is 5-2, but they’re not in the class of Florida State, who has all the makings of a top-10 team.

Florida State 31, N.C. State 17

7. Florida at Georgia

It’s hard to believe that both these teams are unranked and staring a December bowl in the face. And even more surprising, both lost to Mississippi State. Times have changed - I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. Georgia is on a mini-roll, winning 3 straight and re-entering the SEC East race, but they appear to have too many flaws to climb all the way up the ladder. Florida’s not near what they used to be, but the talent level is still very high. Like traditional powers who fall on some hard times, they’re not as bad as the media says they are. Florida wins in the most subdued cocktail party in years.

Florida 24, Georgia 20

8. Baylor at Texas

When have we ever seen a Baylor-Texas game where the ranked team coming into it is not the Longhorns? Couple that with the fact that on the same weekend, Florida and Georgia meet as unranked teams, Penn State plays Michigan with nothing more than a spot in the doughy-soft middle of the Big Ten, and Mississippi State rests just outside the top 20, and you see how weird this season has become. In this contest, I have to imagine that Texas pulls things together to avoid yet another embarrassing home less. There’s no doubt the Longhorns are light years ahead of Baylor in overall talent.

Texas 35, Baylor 31

9. Utah at Air Force

A significant test for Utah ahead of their looming showdown with TCU. The Horned Frogs just pasted Air Force, and in the back of the minds of the Utes must be the faint thought of, “We need to show we’re at least in the same ballpark.” They are, though this game will be closer than the one the Falcons just lost. It’s in Colorado Springs, and the Air Force ground game won’t be held down that low for 2 straight weeks.

Utah 27, Air Force 20

10. Stanford at Washington

Washington has been as inconsistent as anyone. Pasted by Nebraska and Arizona, strong in beating a good Oregon State team. Who shows up this week? It might not matter - Stanford remains under the radar, a one-loss team every bit as good as many ranked ahead of them.

Stanford 38, Washington 28

11. California at Oregon State

The second leg in our Pac Ten roundtable. The middle of this conference is brutal, which is why I have much reservation about Oregon going undefeated. If they do, there’s no doubt they deserve the #1 ranking that will follow. Their home state brethren get the win at home here.

Oregon State 27, California 24

12. Arizona at UCLA

Arizona is very good. UCLA is not. Whatever home field advantage they might have (which in the cavernous Rose Bowl is very little) is moot.

Arizona 33, UCLA 20

13. Texas Tech at Texas A&M

Now we’re firmly entrenched in our “crappy middle of the road BCS conference team matchup” section of the blog. Exhilarating, I know. When in doubt, pick the home team. In this case that’s probably a good decision. The Aggies have explosive potential on offense, and they’ve got to be thankful that Mike Leach is gone from Texas Tech - under his watch the lowly Red Raiders ran roughshod over the once-proud Aggies.

Texas A&M 42, Texas Tech 35

14. Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Oklahoma State acquitted itself nicely against Nebraska, putting up a good fight and showing that being undefeated well into October was no fluke. But they’ve shown much more vulnerability on the road, and K-State is no slouch.

Kansas State 34, Oklahoma State 28

15. Louisville at Pittsburgh

The obligatory Big East selection of the week. Louisville has been surprisingly frisky, but Pitt is establishing itself as the conference’s team to beat. They also get a homecoming boost. The Panthers biggest worry may be that in order to actually qualify for a BCS bowl they’ll have to go undefeated in conference. It’s unfathomable to think a four-loss Big East team makes the final BCS top 25, let alone the top-14 (required for automatic qualification). Heck, that may already be impossible.

Pittsburgh 31, Louisville 21

Week 8: Midseason Observations

Another wild week proves that college football delivers the goods on a weekly basis, and now we're knee deep in what could be a 2007 retread - a year that's gone down as the zaniest, most upset filled in recent memory. This season hasn't come near that level, but it's starting to tread the same path. Here are my brief observations, taken from across the wild world of college football as we cross the seasons midpoint:


- It's becoming increasingly likely that no major conference team will finish undefeated. Alabama's loss 2 weeks ago proved that even the mighty can fall, and no team has proven themselves bulletproof. The most likely teams to finish undefeated are Boise State (about a 75/25 proposition right now) and the TCU-Utah winner (we'll give it 50/50). Should that happen, the BCS would have it's biggest mess yet, as they'd have 2 undefeated and worthy non-AQ teams in the mix, and one or both could easily be leapfrogged by one-loss BCS AQ programs. Imagine the controversy and the conversation!
- Don't count Alabama out! The Crimson Tide have fallen back under the radar, but just because they're now at the bottom of the top 10 rather than the top doesn't mean they're any less of a formidable team than we thought 3 weeks ago. They're likely to run the table from here on out, and would almost certainly end up in Glendale.
- Oregon, the closest thing to untouchable we've seen so far, may end up a bridesmaid again - this time put there by injuries and the depth of the usually placid Pac Ten. It's a hard road to tread this year, and if the injury big keeps biting, Oregon won't be able to make it unscathed.
- The BCS standings are the weirdest ever. Oklahoma somehow nabbed the top spot, despite their #3 and #4 ranking in the human polls. And that's just the start. The discrepancy between human and computer is glaring all the way down the polls. At least the BCS gets them to meet in the middle. Neither human or computer polls are flawless - voters in the human polls are subjective, have short memories, are easily impressionable, and often fall into slot voting practices. The computers flaw is that they're incapable of actually watching a football game - they don't have eyes. My solution? Hire 50 people and pay them to sit in a 20-TV room watching football all Saturday, give them Sunday and Monday to review tape, compare stats, and release their votes on Tuesday. Make every person's votes publicly accessible and give the voters themselves the ability to vote one of their own out, should their voting show signs of bias or lunacy.


Um, I thought I'd have a few more than that. It's late, I'm tired, I'm multitasking, and I'm rushing to get this posted - these will have to suffice. Maybe others will come out in the picks section. I hope to stop my downward trend of recent weeks, but I can't make any promises. This thing gets tougher by the week.


1. LSU at Auburn
Two significant factors come into play this week, and neither have squat to do with the actual on-field matchup of the Tigers and the Tigers. But both are significant and noteworthy. First, if we've learned anything about the SEC in the past few years, it's that a team coming off a particularly difficult game (whether it be a physically grinding affair, an uber-hyped mega-brawl, or a mentally challenging hurdle) is at a severe disadvantage the following week. If they're coming off 2 straight, you can all but write them off, unless they're playing Vanderbilt or stepping out of conference. This year's fresh-off-the-presses examples are Alabama (lost to South Carolina after a taxing affair with Arkansas and a hypefest vs. Florida), and South Carolina (fell flat against Kentucky after said win vs. the Crimson Tide). Auburn enters the week after having to rally to beat Kentucky (grinder), and blitzing Arkansas (hypefest). LSU, meanwhile, played mighty McNeese State last week. Two strikes for Auburn. The other trend is the newly developing Heisman frontrunner curse. Now, I don't give any credence to an actual "curse" being involved, but the last 2 weeks have seen Denard Robinson fall on hard times - first against Sparty, then against Iowa; and then Taylor Martinez get the hook after his poor performance against Texas. Up to the front of the line steps Cam Newton. Uh-oh. Newton has played quite good and deserves to be the frontrunner right now, but much of his stats and highlights have come against, well, less than formidable defenses. Just like Martinez and Robinson. Like those two, Newton is likely to have flaws exposed against a stout defense and have struggles of his own. In steps LSU. With a fast, aggressive defense and the impossible endgame successes of the Hat, that's Auburn's (and Newton's) third strike. LSU scores a minor upset.
LSU 23, Auburn 17


2. Oklahoma at Missouri
Oklahoma made the impossible leap to first this week, which means they'll probably lose Saturday. It's just the way this season is seeming to play out. The Sooners haven't impressed anybody, scoring several unimpressive, narrow victories and looking all too vulnerable in doing so. Missouri may be the team to finally take them down. The Tigers have a surprisingly strong defense, one that could force Landry Jones into mistakes, and a QB in Blaine Gabbert who's as good as anybody in the country. If it were in Norman, I'd go with the Sooners, but the fans in Columbia will be rowdy and ready come Saturday night, and Missouri gets a landmark win.
Missouri 24, Oklahoma 20


3. Wisconsin at Iowa
Easy pick. Wisconsin is coming off an emotional, hard-hitting win, and play an even more physical foe in Iowa. The Badgers will have a hard time reaching the same level of energy and physicality against the Hawkeyes. Too bad for them - they'll need to with Iowa's size and strength, and the fact that Kinnick Stadium is the location. The Big Ten is Iowa's to lose.
Iowa 21, Wisconsin 10


4. Michigan State at Northwestern
Trap game? Sparty has Iowa next, and no one would blame them for looking past Northwestern, long the doormat of the Big Ten. But Northwestern has been very good in recent years, and has the offense to scare the Spartans. Michigan State also has this little tradition of fading quicker than a dropped call after promising starts. And though the seem to suck you in every year, I'm again telling myself that this Spartan team is different. They're balanced, smart, well-coached, motivated, and believe they can go undefeated. I'm probably wrong, but I'll pick Sparty.
Michigan State 34, Northwestern 31


5. Nebraska at Oklahoma State
Let's face it, Nebraska looked awful last week. But as awful as they were, they still were within a possession of beating Texas at the end of the game. The question for them is, can they bounce back after blowing the biggest game in the past 10 years of the program, a game they loaded the hopes of their entire season onto? Or are we reading too much into that? The players surely wanted to whip Texas, but it was the fans and the media department who put all the eggs in the Texas basket. The players will probably carry somewhat of a hangover into Stillwater, but they'll awaken when they need to. Taylor Martinez will rebound and have a good game against a defense less suited to stop him, and Nebraska's trend of one week great, one week lousy will continue.
Nebraska 31, Oklahoma State 21


6. Alabama at Tennessee
It used to be the best rivalry in the SEC. It used to be the game you instantly thought of when someone said "the third Saturday in October". It used to decide championships. It USED to.
Alabama 20, Tennessee 7


7. UCLA at Oregon
Oregon keeps rolling, but the road turns decidedly uphill next weekend.
Oregon 45, UCLA 21


8. Georgia at Kentucky
I think I've lost on every Georgia pick I've made this year. So whoever I pick, trust that the opposite will win. That said, as poor as Georgia has been, they've still got a decent shot at the East crown. Sure, they'd need South Carolina to lose twice more, but is that really that unfeasible? The Bulldogs have played much better since A.J. Green's return, and may have gotten in sync just in time to chase the most improbable conference championship ever. Oh, and Kentucky is coming off of one of them SEC super-grinder wins. Advantage Georgia.
Georgia 33, Kentucky 27


9. Georgia Tech at Clemson
I've been equally unsuccessful with Georgia Tech this year. I'm actually considering pulling out all my old road atlases and knifing out the Peach State. Now the Yellow Jackets hit the road to face a Clemson team that's a lot better than their 3-3 record indicates. Georgia Tech's so-so season and Clemson's mettle makes this an easy pick.
Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 24


10. Air Force at TCU
TCU's biggest threat until they visit Utah next month. Air Force were worthy of their brief stint in the polls before a tough loss at San Diego State last week, and they have the peculiar running game that could confuse TCU's defense. But it's a defense built on speed, and speed is the great equalizer against the triple option. If the Horned Frogs play disciplined and everyone executes their assignment, they'll be fine. And Andy Dalton will have the offense moving the ball enough to keep the pressure on.
TCU 28, Air Force 14


11. Notre Dame vs. Navy
Given Navy's recent success against the Irish, an upset wouldn't be all that surprising. But you know that behind closed doors after Brian Kelly's hiring, the Notre Dame brass gave him a stern, "You'd better beat Navy, or your (rhymes with "class") is out the door. We've had enough embarrassment from them. Their players actually go to class and are in school for more than just football!" The motivation is there, and Navy's down a notch.
Notre Dame 30, Navy 13


12. North Carolina at Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes aren't as bad as their loss to Florida State indicated, and they'll find enough juice to get past continually depleted North Carolina. This could be one to watch, though, as these games have been entertaining and competitive recently, and North Carolina always seems to trouble the Hurricanes.
Miami (FL) 28, North Carolina 27


13. Washington at Arizona
The Pac Ten round robin continues, as middle of the pack teams like Washington scramble to try to crack the upper echelon. Arizona's firmly planted there for now, and their defense and home environs should rankle Jake Locker enough to ensure a Wildcat win.
Arizona 20, Washington 14


14. Kansas State at Baylor
Don't look now, but Baylor is a win away from bowl eligibility and a hearty eyebrow raise from the nation's football watching public. Kansas State is vulnerable, coming off a 59 point beatdown of their cross-state rival. They'll come in with too much confidence than they should, and lowly Baylor has the chops to knock them off. Robert Griffin III can give any defense fits, and he'll have to bail out the Bears mundane defense. He's got the ability to do so.
Baylor 38, Kansas State 35


15. Rutgers at Pittsburgh
It would be wonderful for Rutgers to get a win for their fallen teammate, Eric LeGrand, who suffered a paralyzing injury on a hit while covering a kickoff late last weekend. But while Pitt fans and players will show LeGrand and Rutgers the utmost respect, the Panthers are simply better, and they need a win to continue salvage operations for their season. 
Pittsburgh 23, Rutgers 13


Pitt wins, but here's to Eric LeGrand - may he run out of the tunnel one day before a delirious home crowd and before his amped up, tearful teammates. Adam Taliaferro did it a year and a half after a paralyzing injury while I was a student at Penn State, and it was one of the most inspirational moments in the program's history. I'm praying for Eric and his family and team, not just that he's able to experience what Adam Taliaferro did, but more so that he and those close to him are drawn nearer to Christ through this trial. It's often in these situations that faith, and a relationship with God, are most profoundly and unshakably kindled. I encourage you to pray for him as well.

Week 7: TwitPicks

An early, abbreviated post this week - I've got to condense things for the sake of time. Sometimes there just aren't 2 hours to bang out a full post. We'll see if I can cram this baby into a half-hour!


I'll do so by making my picks in the form of tweets - which, if you're over 40 or have spent the last 3 years under a heavy dose of Hibernol, are 140 character limit, brief, often pithy statements of information. But before the picks - some Twitter style bullet point observations about the season so far:


- I tabbed S. Car. over Bama b4 season as upset special, then lost nerve when it came time to pick! 
- I forgot the old SEC truth of back-to-back (or back-to-back-to-back) tough games - Bama didn't stand a chance (more on that l8r)
- Outcry re: Boise's proj. top of BCS is unneeded; Broncs, plus TCU & Utah, are worthy top-10. Gap b/t WAC, MWC and rest smaller than we think
- My nickname "cavalcade of coronaries" to describe Les Miles seems apt once again; LSU may be worst 6-0 team ever
- Don't sleep on Iowa in nat'l championship race; Hawkeyes will win Big 10 and be in the mix
- Injuries to Barber, Thomas could prove costly for Oregon; they need all 3 for offense to retain its pop
- Utah's crushing of Iowa State shows they're just as good as BCS conf. team, and they'll continue to prove it in Pac 10
- Penn State may miss a bowl game. Many tears will be shed in my household.


1. Arkansas at Auburn
Auburn spooked at Kentucky; come into this one less rested than Razorbacks. Hogs take down Tigers on road.
Arkansas 31, Auburn 27


2. Iowa at Michigan
Wolverines exposed as overrated; Shoelace struggles again against stout Iowa D.
Iowa 24, Michigan 13


3. Ohio State at Wisconsin
Buckeyes clear first big road hurdle, much like their last visit to Camp Randall.
Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 20


4. Texas at Nebraska
Revenge is sweet as Huskers take advantage of young, rebuilding Longhorns. About time I picked a home team!
Nebraska 30, Texas 21


5. South Carolina at Kentucky
Letdown week for Gamecocks; emotional high + tricky-tough road trip + SEC back-to-back rules = upset.
Kentucky 31, South Carolina 24


6. Oregon State at Washington
2nd strong road win in a row for underrated Beavers; to top of Pac 10 they come!
Oregon State 35, Washington 27


7. Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
High water mark for Cowboys, 5-0 is misleading, Okie State worst undefeated team remaining.
Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 31


8. Missouri at Texas A&M
Aggies can't catch a break - 2 tight losses 2 straight weeks, and Mizzou is better than many think.
Missouri 23, Texas A&M 21


9. Illinois at Michigan State
Illini much improved, but Sparty's dream season continues at home. Fans have at least 2 more weeks to dream of what may come.
Michigan State 28, Illinois 25


10. South Florida at West Virginia
WVU clearly Big East's best, unless they honk a game the conference is theirs to lose.
West Virginia 34, South Florida 17


11. California at USC
Trojans won't lose 3rd straight, but NCAA penalties + overinflated rep of Kiffin starting to poke holes in USC mystique.
USC 27, California 20


12. Mississippi State at Florida
Dan Mullen comes close to nabbing one against former team as Bulldogs nearly take advantage of deflated Gators.
Florida 30, Mississippi State 27


13. Pittsburgh at Syracuse
A Cuse win gets them to 5-1 and flavor of the week status; won't happen as Pitt stands proud, starts to save season.
Pittsburgh 19, Syracuse 17


14. Kansas State at Kansas
Jayhawks have struggled, but will rise to occasion in playing in-state rival.
Kansas 21, Kansas State 14


15. North Carolina at Virginia
Only ACC game worth making the 15. UNC continues winning in spite of themselves.
North Carolina 20, Virginia 13


Next week: hopefully a longer post, but I can't guarantee better than 9 wins. My least confident week of picks to-date.


P.S. Got it done in 40 minutes. Close, but no cigar (literally - I have none in stock at the house).

Week 6: A Look At The Unbeatens

This weekend we move into mid-October, the rich, chocolatey nougat center of the college football candy bar. It's that time of season where teams have pretty much sorted themselves out, allowing us to see who are contenders and who are posing as such. Last weekend exposed former unbeatens USC, Florida, and Wisconsin (among others) as fraudulent contenders, and more can be expected to be outed in the weeks to come.


With that in mind, let's take a quick run through the remaining unbeaten teams and determine who's a contender, who's a pretender, and who we don't have enough information on yet. I'll also give my take on whether or not they'll stay unbeaten, and a general prognosis on how the rest of their autumn will unfold.


1. Alabama: Contender
Why: Give me a reason why not? The defending champs have given no reason for anyone to rank them below the top spot, and only seem to get stronger by the week. Their offense has no discernible weakness, with the brutal power running game coupled with the calm poise and clutch play of Greg McElroy. It doesn't hurt that McElroy has the incredible weapons of Julio Jones and Marquis Maze at his disposal. If Alabama loses, it won't be because their offense is stymied.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/26 vs. Auburn. The Iron Bowl will feature the most explosive offense left on the Crimson Tide schedule, one that could exploit Alabama's only potential weak spot - it's young defense.
Prognosis: Get ready for another Crimson appearance in the BCS title game.


2. Oregon: Contender
Why: In an era of offensive innovation, the Oregon Ducks may have unleashed the most devastating style yet: a hurry-up, spread-set power running game. In either your typical fast tempo offense, the passing game is the prominent feature, almost exclusively (a la Texas Tech, circa Mike Leach era). The same is true with most spread offense attacks - the field is spread primarily to give pass-catchers space and encourage short, quick passes. Not so with Oregon, they hurry to the line of scrimmage, line up in the shotgun, and run right at you. The speed of their runners coupled with the pace of their play has, thus far, proven unstoppable. Defenses are punched in the mouth by gashing runs through the middle and occasional bursts into the space on the edges, and not given time to think, let alone make substitutions, before the next shot comes right at them. It's cold, it's devastating, and it's beautiful to watch. A melding of old and new school.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/26 vs. Arizona, 12/4 at Oregon State. Arizona has been a thorn in Oregon's side in recent years. If the Wildcats can ambush the Ducks like they did Iowa, they just might be able to score enough to stay in front for good. And the Civil War is always just that - a war, and this battle takes place in Corvallis. The Beavers will be ready, and as is their custom, looking to steal the Pac-Ten crown with their typical late season surge.
Prognosis: Barring an injury to James, Barber, or Thomas, they'll possess the crystal football at year's end.


3. Ohio State: Contender
Why: As long as Terrelle Pryor is healthy, the Buckeyes will be in the mix. Their defense is bruising, as usual, and will ensure that they won't be out of any game. Potentially, their biggest enemy might be themselves - their dismal performance this past week at Illinois shows that the lapses in focus that hindered them last year (Purdue game, anyone?) are still a concern. I'll give Pryor the benefit of the doubt that he won't have to learn that lesson again and will carry this team through the tough Big Ten schedule.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/20 at Iowa. The Hawkeyes will be ready and carry a sizable chip on their shoulders, remembering last year's OT loss in Columbus.
Prognosis: Iowa steals away the Big Ten crown, Buckeyes have to settle for a second-tier BCS game.


4. Boise State: Contender
Why: Simple - unless they beat themselves, they won't lose again. How much of a contender for the BCS title is dependent on all the other unbeatens falling, and probably upon Virginia Tech and Oregon State either winning or nearly winning the ACC and Pac Ten, respectively.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/26 at Nevada. The Wolf Pack have come close to knocking off the Broncos in recent attempts, but one has to assume that even given Nevada's best effort, Boise will have to give a major assist if they're going to win.
Prognosis: Nevada gives them a scare, Virginia Tech and Oregon State do their jobs, but the Broncos can't go higher than #3. Fiesta Bowl bound again.


5. TCU: Contender
Why: They'd have to get pretty lucky, but an undefeated season is more likely than not for the Horned Frogs, and that gives them a punchers chance.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/6 at Utah. The Utes might be the most underrated team in the country (even by me), and TCU will have to play their best to win in Salt Lake.
Prognosis: Utah nips them, and it's to San Diego to play in the Poinsettia Bowl.


6. Nebraska: Pretender
Why: Even with an impressive win at Washington, the Huskers don't appear to have what it takes to go unbeaten, even in a depleted Big 12. Taylor Martinez is solid, but still a freshman, and the ghosts of the Nebraska offense that surrendered 8 turnovers in a game last year are still around (see last weekend's 17-3 showing against 1-AA South Dakota State).
When They'll Be Outed: 10/23 at Oklahoma State. It'll be a road game that Nebraska loses, and one in which it's unexpected. Oklahoma State is better than people think, and has the offense to score enough points to put Nebraska in a hole - one their passing game and turnover bug won't be able to overcome.


7. Oklahoma: Contender
Why: In spite of their best efforts at trying, Oklahoma hasn't lost yet. They're playing their best against the biggest opponents, and if they can tighten things up against teams they should cruise against, they'll be among the last teams standing by the end of the year.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: Big 12 Title Game. The Sooners will likely be at least a touchdown favorite in every remaining game, and unless they do what they've come close to doing 3 times already, they'll run the regular season table.
Prognosis: The we-play-to-our-competition bug gets them and they lose a game they shouldn't. They have some '99 Penn State in them (a team I'm well-acquainted with), who made it through at least 4 close calls before finally succumbing to an unranked Minnesota team at home (see my post from November 2008 for a more detailed description of that agony).


8. Arizona: Pretender
Why: The Wildcats have had a nice run, but they peaked in their upset win over Iowa. The Pac Ten is too loaded and Arizona doesn't have the overall depth and balance to go through unscathed.
When They'll Be Outed: Saturday, vs. Oregon State. The Beavers are much better than their record indicates, and Arizona's lackluster 10-9 home win over Cal in their last game is a sign of things to come.


9. Auburn: Pretender
Why: Not enough defense, proneness to offensive sputtering. The potential of the Auburn offense is through the roof, but they've yet to put it all together. It will prove costly sooner than later.
When They'll Be Outed: 10/16 vs. Arkansas. The Tigers won't be able to stop, or keep up with, the Hogs.


10. Utah: Contender
Why: Same reasons as TCU - going undefeated is distinctly possible. The only problem is that they need more help than may be possible. Based on where they are now, the Utes would likely need some of the more major contenders to lose twice if they are to sneak into the title game.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/6 vs. TCU. The game before, at Air Force, will be a difficult trap game, but TCU is by far the best team left on the Utes' schedule.
Prognosis: Utah becomes the unlikeliest of undefeated teams, and earns themselves an at-large BCS bid, with the help of the Big East's failure to qualify a team.


11. Michigan: Pretender
Why: Because a one-man show never lasts. Denard Robinson's legs will literally fall off, or a team will find a way to contain him, and the Wolverines will be blown out. Giving up 37 to UMass and 35 to Indiana isn't the mark of a contender's defense.
When They'll Be Outed: Saturday, vs. Michigan State. The Wolverines have had a nice run, but they're among the most overrated teams out there. And that's not said out of my typical manic Michigan hatred. Michigan State is the best team they've played this year, and the Wolverine defense won't create enough stops.


12. Michigan State: Pretender
Why: It's hard to say that the Spartan's undefeated record is a fluke, but it did take a gutsy OT call against Notre Dame to produce it. The Big Ten is too loaded for a merely above-average team to run the table.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/30 at Iowa. That is, unless Northwestern nicks them the week before - a distinct possibility. But hopes could start to run pretty high if the Spartans make it to Kinnick Stadium unblemished - only to be rudely dashed by the stifling Hawkeye defense.


13. Oklahoma State: Pretender
Why: They're better than expected, but a team that nearly loses at home to a Sun Belt team is no contender.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/16 at Texas Tech. The Cowboys play their first road game this weekend, but it's at Louisiana-Lafayette. They'll escape with a win there, only to fall in their first true road test the following weekend.


14. Missouri: Need More Info
Why: Blaine Gabbert is one of the best QB's in the nation, but Missouri has yet to play anyone of consequence. If Gabbert ups his game to another level, Missouri could make a decent run.
When We'll Find Out: 11/23 vs. Oklahoma. Their first test against a true top team.


15. Kansas State: Pretender
Why: The Wildcats are a nice story, reemerging as a competitor in the Big 12 North behind Manhattan legend Bill Snyder. But narrow wins over UCLA, Iowa State, and UCF aren't scaring anyone.
When They'll Be Outed: Thursday, vs. Nebraska. A wake up call, blaring the words, "Welcome to Reality!" caustically into their ears.


16. Nevada: Pretender
Why: Boise State is on the schedule. And no matter how weak the WAC might be, Nevada isn't likely to go through with even only one loss.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/13 at Fresno State. Visiting the Valley is no cakewalk.


17. LSU: Pretender
Why: No, I wouldn't rank LSU as the 17th best of the remaining unbeaten teams. I just forgot they were actually undefeated. Seems like a team with that many QB problems has no business being 5-0, no matter how strong their defense is.
When They'll Be Outed: Saturday at Florida. Even if they combined all the good elements of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee and threw out all the bad ones, they'd still probably give up a pick six in the Swamp.


18. Northwestern: Pretender
Why: The Big Ten is just too deep to house this many undefeated teams for too long. And they almost lost to both Vanderbilt and Minnesota, two of the worst BCS conference sides.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/23, vs. Michigan State. A 6-0 start would be something to write home about for all the journalism majors who call Northwestern home though!


Whew! Now that that marathon has been run, the actual picks of the week will be delivered rapid-fire style - no commentary included.


1. Michigan State 34, Michigan 24


2. Florida 23, LSU 10


3. Miami (FL) 38, Florida State 24


4. Arkansas 49, Texas A&M 34


5. Stanford 38, USC 27


6. Alabama 24, South Carolina 17


7. Oregon State 20, Arizona 14


8. Notre Dame 21, Pittsburgh 17


9. Nebraska 28, Kansas State 14


10. Clemson 27, North Carolina 24


11. Texas Tech 31, Baylor 28


12. UCLA 23, California 17


13. Missouri 27, Colorado 17


14. Washington 33, Arizona State 24


15. Georgia 24, Tennessee 23