This weekend we move into mid-October, the rich, chocolatey nougat center of the college football candy bar. It's that time of season where teams have pretty much sorted themselves out, allowing us to see who are contenders and who are posing as such. Last weekend exposed former unbeatens USC, Florida, and Wisconsin (among others) as fraudulent contenders, and more can be expected to be outed in the weeks to come.
With that in mind, let's take a quick run through the remaining unbeaten teams and determine who's a contender, who's a pretender, and who we don't have enough information on yet. I'll also give my take on whether or not they'll stay unbeaten, and a general prognosis on how the rest of their autumn will unfold.
1. Alabama: Contender
Why: Give me a reason why not? The defending champs have given no reason for anyone to rank them below the top spot, and only seem to get stronger by the week. Their offense has no discernible weakness, with the brutal power running game coupled with the calm poise and clutch play of Greg McElroy. It doesn't hurt that McElroy has the incredible weapons of Julio Jones and Marquis Maze at his disposal. If Alabama loses, it won't be because their offense is stymied.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/26 vs. Auburn. The Iron Bowl will feature the most explosive offense left on the Crimson Tide schedule, one that could exploit Alabama's only potential weak spot - it's young defense.
Prognosis: Get ready for another Crimson appearance in the BCS title game.
2. Oregon: Contender
Why: In an era of offensive innovation, the Oregon Ducks may have unleashed the most devastating style yet: a hurry-up, spread-set power running game. In either your typical fast tempo offense, the passing game is the prominent feature, almost exclusively (a la Texas Tech, circa Mike Leach era). The same is true with most spread offense attacks - the field is spread primarily to give pass-catchers space and encourage short, quick passes. Not so with Oregon, they hurry to the line of scrimmage, line up in the shotgun, and run right at you. The speed of their runners coupled with the pace of their play has, thus far, proven unstoppable. Defenses are punched in the mouth by gashing runs through the middle and occasional bursts into the space on the edges, and not given time to think, let alone make substitutions, before the next shot comes right at them. It's cold, it's devastating, and it's beautiful to watch. A melding of old and new school.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/26 vs. Arizona, 12/4 at Oregon State. Arizona has been a thorn in Oregon's side in recent years. If the Wildcats can ambush the Ducks like they did Iowa, they just might be able to score enough to stay in front for good. And the Civil War is always just that - a war, and this battle takes place in Corvallis. The Beavers will be ready, and as is their custom, looking to steal the Pac-Ten crown with their typical late season surge.
Prognosis: Barring an injury to James, Barber, or Thomas, they'll possess the crystal football at year's end.
3. Ohio State: Contender
Why: As long as Terrelle Pryor is healthy, the Buckeyes will be in the mix. Their defense is bruising, as usual, and will ensure that they won't be out of any game. Potentially, their biggest enemy might be themselves - their dismal performance this past week at Illinois shows that the lapses in focus that hindered them last year (Purdue game, anyone?) are still a concern. I'll give Pryor the benefit of the doubt that he won't have to learn that lesson again and will carry this team through the tough Big Ten schedule.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/20 at Iowa. The Hawkeyes will be ready and carry a sizable chip on their shoulders, remembering last year's OT loss in Columbus.
Prognosis: Iowa steals away the Big Ten crown, Buckeyes have to settle for a second-tier BCS game.
4. Boise State: Contender
Why: Simple - unless they beat themselves, they won't lose again. How much of a contender for the BCS title is dependent on all the other unbeatens falling, and probably upon Virginia Tech and Oregon State either winning or nearly winning the ACC and Pac Ten, respectively.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/26 at Nevada. The Wolf Pack have come close to knocking off the Broncos in recent attempts, but one has to assume that even given Nevada's best effort, Boise will have to give a major assist if they're going to win.
Prognosis: Nevada gives them a scare, Virginia Tech and Oregon State do their jobs, but the Broncos can't go higher than #3. Fiesta Bowl bound again.
5. TCU: Contender
Why: They'd have to get pretty lucky, but an undefeated season is more likely than not for the Horned Frogs, and that gives them a punchers chance.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/6 at Utah. The Utes might be the most underrated team in the country (even by me), and TCU will have to play their best to win in Salt Lake.
Prognosis: Utah nips them, and it's to San Diego to play in the Poinsettia Bowl.
6. Nebraska: Pretender
Why: Even with an impressive win at Washington, the Huskers don't appear to have what it takes to go unbeaten, even in a depleted Big 12. Taylor Martinez is solid, but still a freshman, and the ghosts of the Nebraska offense that surrendered 8 turnovers in a game last year are still around (see last weekend's 17-3 showing against 1-AA South Dakota State).
When They'll Be Outed: 10/23 at Oklahoma State. It'll be a road game that Nebraska loses, and one in which it's unexpected. Oklahoma State is better than people think, and has the offense to score enough points to put Nebraska in a hole - one their passing game and turnover bug won't be able to overcome.
7. Oklahoma: Contender
Why: In spite of their best efforts at trying, Oklahoma hasn't lost yet. They're playing their best against the biggest opponents, and if they can tighten things up against teams they should cruise against, they'll be among the last teams standing by the end of the year.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: Big 12 Title Game. The Sooners will likely be at least a touchdown favorite in every remaining game, and unless they do what they've come close to doing 3 times already, they'll run the regular season table.
Prognosis: The we-play-to-our-competition bug gets them and they lose a game they shouldn't. They have some '99 Penn State in them (a team I'm well-acquainted with), who made it through at least 4 close calls before finally succumbing to an unranked Minnesota team at home (see my post from November 2008 for a more detailed description of that agony).
8. Arizona: Pretender
Why: The Wildcats have had a nice run, but they peaked in their upset win over Iowa. The Pac Ten is too loaded and Arizona doesn't have the overall depth and balance to go through unscathed.
When They'll Be Outed: Saturday, vs. Oregon State. The Beavers are much better than their record indicates, and Arizona's lackluster 10-9 home win over Cal in their last game is a sign of things to come.
9. Auburn: Pretender
Why: Not enough defense, proneness to offensive sputtering. The potential of the Auburn offense is through the roof, but they've yet to put it all together. It will prove costly sooner than later.
When They'll Be Outed: 10/16 vs. Arkansas. The Tigers won't be able to stop, or keep up with, the Hogs.
10. Utah: Contender
Why: Same reasons as TCU - going undefeated is distinctly possible. The only problem is that they need more help than may be possible. Based on where they are now, the Utes would likely need some of the more major contenders to lose twice if they are to sneak into the title game.
Biggest Remaining Hurdle: 11/6 vs. TCU. The game before, at Air Force, will be a difficult trap game, but TCU is by far the best team left on the Utes' schedule.
Prognosis: Utah becomes the unlikeliest of undefeated teams, and earns themselves an at-large BCS bid, with the help of the Big East's failure to qualify a team.
11. Michigan: Pretender
Why: Because a one-man show never lasts. Denard Robinson's legs will literally fall off, or a team will find a way to contain him, and the Wolverines will be blown out. Giving up 37 to UMass and 35 to Indiana isn't the mark of a contender's defense.
When They'll Be Outed: Saturday, vs. Michigan State. The Wolverines have had a nice run, but they're among the most overrated teams out there. And that's not said out of my typical manic Michigan hatred. Michigan State is the best team they've played this year, and the Wolverine defense won't create enough stops.
12. Michigan State: Pretender
Why: It's hard to say that the Spartan's undefeated record is a fluke, but it did take a gutsy OT call against Notre Dame to produce it. The Big Ten is too loaded for a merely above-average team to run the table.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/30 at Iowa. That is, unless Northwestern nicks them the week before - a distinct possibility. But hopes could start to run pretty high if the Spartans make it to Kinnick Stadium unblemished - only to be rudely dashed by the stifling Hawkeye defense.
13. Oklahoma State: Pretender
Why: They're better than expected, but a team that nearly loses at home to a Sun Belt team is no contender.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/16 at Texas Tech. The Cowboys play their first road game this weekend, but it's at Louisiana-Lafayette. They'll escape with a win there, only to fall in their first true road test the following weekend.
14. Missouri: Need More Info
Why: Blaine Gabbert is one of the best QB's in the nation, but Missouri has yet to play anyone of consequence. If Gabbert ups his game to another level, Missouri could make a decent run.
When We'll Find Out: 11/23 vs. Oklahoma. Their first test against a true top team.
15. Kansas State: Pretender
Why: The Wildcats are a nice story, reemerging as a competitor in the Big 12 North behind Manhattan legend Bill Snyder. But narrow wins over UCLA, Iowa State, and UCF aren't scaring anyone.
When They'll Be Outed: Thursday, vs. Nebraska. A wake up call, blaring the words, "Welcome to Reality!" caustically into their ears.
16. Nevada: Pretender
Why: Boise State is on the schedule. And no matter how weak the WAC might be, Nevada isn't likely to go through with even only one loss.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/13 at Fresno State. Visiting the Valley is no cakewalk.
17. LSU: Pretender
Why: No, I wouldn't rank LSU as the 17th best of the remaining unbeaten teams. I just forgot they were actually undefeated. Seems like a team with that many QB problems has no business being 5-0, no matter how strong their defense is.
When They'll Be Outed: Saturday at Florida. Even if they combined all the good elements of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee and threw out all the bad ones, they'd still probably give up a pick six in the Swamp.
18. Northwestern: Pretender
Why: The Big Ten is just too deep to house this many undefeated teams for too long. And they almost lost to both Vanderbilt and Minnesota, two of the worst BCS conference sides.
When They'll Be Outed: 11/23, vs. Michigan State. A 6-0 start would be something to write home about for all the journalism majors who call Northwestern home though!
Whew! Now that that marathon has been run, the actual picks of the week will be delivered rapid-fire style - no commentary included.
1. Michigan State 34, Michigan 24
2. Florida 23, LSU 10
3. Miami (FL) 38, Florida State 24
4. Arkansas 49, Texas A&M 34
5. Stanford 38, USC 27
6. Alabama 24, South Carolina 17
7. Oregon State 20, Arizona 14
8. Notre Dame 21, Pittsburgh 17
9. Nebraska 28, Kansas State 14
10. Clemson 27, North Carolina 24
11. Texas Tech 31, Baylor 28
12. UCLA 23, California 17
13. Missouri 27, Colorado 17
14. Washington 33, Arizona State 24
15. Georgia 24, Tennessee 23
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