Another wild week proves that college football delivers the goods on a weekly basis, and now we're knee deep in what could be a 2007 retread - a year that's gone down as the zaniest, most upset filled in recent memory. This season hasn't come near that level, but it's starting to tread the same path. Here are my brief observations, taken from across the wild world of college football as we cross the seasons midpoint:
- It's becoming increasingly likely that no major conference team will finish undefeated. Alabama's loss 2 weeks ago proved that even the mighty can fall, and no team has proven themselves bulletproof. The most likely teams to finish undefeated are Boise State (about a 75/25 proposition right now) and the TCU-Utah winner (we'll give it 50/50). Should that happen, the BCS would have it's biggest mess yet, as they'd have 2 undefeated and worthy non-AQ teams in the mix, and one or both could easily be leapfrogged by one-loss BCS AQ programs. Imagine the controversy and the conversation!
- Don't count Alabama out! The Crimson Tide have fallen back under the radar, but just because they're now at the bottom of the top 10 rather than the top doesn't mean they're any less of a formidable team than we thought 3 weeks ago. They're likely to run the table from here on out, and would almost certainly end up in Glendale.
- Oregon, the closest thing to untouchable we've seen so far, may end up a bridesmaid again - this time put there by injuries and the depth of the usually placid Pac Ten. It's a hard road to tread this year, and if the injury big keeps biting, Oregon won't be able to make it unscathed.
- The BCS standings are the weirdest ever. Oklahoma somehow nabbed the top spot, despite their #3 and #4 ranking in the human polls. And that's just the start. The discrepancy between human and computer is glaring all the way down the polls. At least the BCS gets them to meet in the middle. Neither human or computer polls are flawless - voters in the human polls are subjective, have short memories, are easily impressionable, and often fall into slot voting practices. The computers flaw is that they're incapable of actually watching a football game - they don't have eyes. My solution? Hire 50 people and pay them to sit in a 20-TV room watching football all Saturday, give them Sunday and Monday to review tape, compare stats, and release their votes on Tuesday. Make every person's votes publicly accessible and give the voters themselves the ability to vote one of their own out, should their voting show signs of bias or lunacy.
Um, I thought I'd have a few more than that. It's late, I'm tired, I'm multitasking, and I'm rushing to get this posted - these will have to suffice. Maybe others will come out in the picks section. I hope to stop my downward trend of recent weeks, but I can't make any promises. This thing gets tougher by the week.
1. LSU at Auburn
Two significant factors come into play this week, and neither have squat to do with the actual on-field matchup of the Tigers and the Tigers. But both are significant and noteworthy. First, if we've learned anything about the SEC in the past few years, it's that a team coming off a particularly difficult game (whether it be a physically grinding affair, an uber-hyped mega-brawl, or a mentally challenging hurdle) is at a severe disadvantage the following week. If they're coming off 2 straight, you can all but write them off, unless they're playing Vanderbilt or stepping out of conference. This year's fresh-off-the-presses examples are Alabama (lost to South Carolina after a taxing affair with Arkansas and a hypefest vs. Florida), and South Carolina (fell flat against Kentucky after said win vs. the Crimson Tide). Auburn enters the week after having to rally to beat Kentucky (grinder), and blitzing Arkansas (hypefest). LSU, meanwhile, played mighty McNeese State last week. Two strikes for Auburn. The other trend is the newly developing Heisman frontrunner curse. Now, I don't give any credence to an actual "curse" being involved, but the last 2 weeks have seen Denard Robinson fall on hard times - first against Sparty, then against Iowa; and then Taylor Martinez get the hook after his poor performance against Texas. Up to the front of the line steps Cam Newton. Uh-oh. Newton has played quite good and deserves to be the frontrunner right now, but much of his stats and highlights have come against, well, less than formidable defenses. Just like Martinez and Robinson. Like those two, Newton is likely to have flaws exposed against a stout defense and have struggles of his own. In steps LSU. With a fast, aggressive defense and the impossible endgame successes of the Hat, that's Auburn's (and Newton's) third strike. LSU scores a minor upset.
LSU 23, Auburn 17
2. Oklahoma at Missouri
Oklahoma made the impossible leap to first this week, which means they'll probably lose Saturday. It's just the way this season is seeming to play out. The Sooners haven't impressed anybody, scoring several unimpressive, narrow victories and looking all too vulnerable in doing so. Missouri may be the team to finally take them down. The Tigers have a surprisingly strong defense, one that could force Landry Jones into mistakes, and a QB in Blaine Gabbert who's as good as anybody in the country. If it were in Norman, I'd go with the Sooners, but the fans in Columbia will be rowdy and ready come Saturday night, and Missouri gets a landmark win.
Missouri 24, Oklahoma 20
3. Wisconsin at Iowa
Easy pick. Wisconsin is coming off an emotional, hard-hitting win, and play an even more physical foe in Iowa. The Badgers will have a hard time reaching the same level of energy and physicality against the Hawkeyes. Too bad for them - they'll need to with Iowa's size and strength, and the fact that Kinnick Stadium is the location. The Big Ten is Iowa's to lose.
Iowa 21, Wisconsin 10
4. Michigan State at Northwestern
Trap game? Sparty has Iowa next, and no one would blame them for looking past Northwestern, long the doormat of the Big Ten. But Northwestern has been very good in recent years, and has the offense to scare the Spartans. Michigan State also has this little tradition of fading quicker than a dropped call after promising starts. And though the seem to suck you in every year, I'm again telling myself that this Spartan team is different. They're balanced, smart, well-coached, motivated, and believe they can go undefeated. I'm probably wrong, but I'll pick Sparty.
Michigan State 34, Northwestern 31
5. Nebraska at Oklahoma State
Let's face it, Nebraska looked awful last week. But as awful as they were, they still were within a possession of beating Texas at the end of the game. The question for them is, can they bounce back after blowing the biggest game in the past 10 years of the program, a game they loaded the hopes of their entire season onto? Or are we reading too much into that? The players surely wanted to whip Texas, but it was the fans and the media department who put all the eggs in the Texas basket. The players will probably carry somewhat of a hangover into Stillwater, but they'll awaken when they need to. Taylor Martinez will rebound and have a good game against a defense less suited to stop him, and Nebraska's trend of one week great, one week lousy will continue.
Nebraska 31, Oklahoma State 21
6. Alabama at Tennessee
It used to be the best rivalry in the SEC. It used to be the game you instantly thought of when someone said "the third Saturday in October". It used to decide championships. It USED to.
Alabama 20, Tennessee 7
7. UCLA at Oregon
Oregon keeps rolling, but the road turns decidedly uphill next weekend.
Oregon 45, UCLA 21
8. Georgia at Kentucky
I think I've lost on every Georgia pick I've made this year. So whoever I pick, trust that the opposite will win. That said, as poor as Georgia has been, they've still got a decent shot at the East crown. Sure, they'd need South Carolina to lose twice more, but is that really that unfeasible? The Bulldogs have played much better since A.J. Green's return, and may have gotten in sync just in time to chase the most improbable conference championship ever. Oh, and Kentucky is coming off of one of them SEC super-grinder wins. Advantage Georgia.
Georgia 33, Kentucky 27
9. Georgia Tech at Clemson
I've been equally unsuccessful with Georgia Tech this year. I'm actually considering pulling out all my old road atlases and knifing out the Peach State. Now the Yellow Jackets hit the road to face a Clemson team that's a lot better than their 3-3 record indicates. Georgia Tech's so-so season and Clemson's mettle makes this an easy pick.
Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 24
10. Air Force at TCU
TCU's biggest threat until they visit Utah next month. Air Force were worthy of their brief stint in the polls before a tough loss at San Diego State last week, and they have the peculiar running game that could confuse TCU's defense. But it's a defense built on speed, and speed is the great equalizer against the triple option. If the Horned Frogs play disciplined and everyone executes their assignment, they'll be fine. And Andy Dalton will have the offense moving the ball enough to keep the pressure on.
TCU 28, Air Force 14
11. Notre Dame vs. Navy
Given Navy's recent success against the Irish, an upset wouldn't be all that surprising. But you know that behind closed doors after Brian Kelly's hiring, the Notre Dame brass gave him a stern, "You'd better beat Navy, or your (rhymes with "class") is out the door. We've had enough embarrassment from them. Their players actually go to class and are in school for more than just football!" The motivation is there, and Navy's down a notch.
Notre Dame 30, Navy 13
12. North Carolina at Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes aren't as bad as their loss to Florida State indicated, and they'll find enough juice to get past continually depleted North Carolina. This could be one to watch, though, as these games have been entertaining and competitive recently, and North Carolina always seems to trouble the Hurricanes.
Miami (FL) 28, North Carolina 27
13. Washington at Arizona
The Pac Ten round robin continues, as middle of the pack teams like Washington scramble to try to crack the upper echelon. Arizona's firmly planted there for now, and their defense and home environs should rankle Jake Locker enough to ensure a Wildcat win.
Arizona 20, Washington 14
14. Kansas State at Baylor
Don't look now, but Baylor is a win away from bowl eligibility and a hearty eyebrow raise from the nation's football watching public. Kansas State is vulnerable, coming off a 59 point beatdown of their cross-state rival. They'll come in with too much confidence than they should, and lowly Baylor has the chops to knock them off. Robert Griffin III can give any defense fits, and he'll have to bail out the Bears mundane defense. He's got the ability to do so.
Baylor 38, Kansas State 35
15. Rutgers at Pittsburgh
It would be wonderful for Rutgers to get a win for their fallen teammate, Eric LeGrand, who suffered a paralyzing injury on a hit while covering a kickoff late last weekend. But while Pitt fans and players will show LeGrand and Rutgers the utmost respect, the Panthers are simply better, and they need a win to continue salvage operations for their season.
Pittsburgh 23, Rutgers 13
Pitt wins, but here's to Eric LeGrand - may he run out of the tunnel one day before a delirious home crowd and before his amped up, tearful teammates. Adam Taliaferro did it a year and a half after a paralyzing injury while I was a student at Penn State, and it was one of the most inspirational moments in the program's history. I'm praying for Eric and his family and team, not just that he's able to experience what Adam Taliaferro did, but more so that he and those close to him are drawn nearer to Christ through this trial. It's often in these situations that faith, and a relationship with God, are most profoundly and unshakably kindled. I encourage you to pray for him as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment