Week 7: Clearing Up the Picture

We've reached the point in the 2008 college football season where we can take a step back and get a decent read on how things are going to play out.  Already several teams have played half their games, and all have played enough to get a pretty accurate read on who's for real and who's out of the chase.  So, like wiping clean a steamed up mirror after a hot shower, let's see if I can clear up the BCS championship picture for you.  I'll do it in the form of who's got the best odds of making the BCS title tilt.  While I don't advocate gambling on college football games (and based on my results so far that's a smart decision), it's fun to make phony odds for argument's sake.  I'll remind you that these are my odds of these teams making the championship game, not winning it.

3 to 2: Oklahoma OR Missouri

The Big 12 is a tough league, but these 2 teams appear head and shoulders above the rest, and right now it looks like a near certainty that one will reach the championship game.  They miss each other on the schedule and appear on a collision course for the Big 12 title game.  Missouri has to go to Texas and get through a border war with Kansas, and Oklahoma's toughest games are this Saturday vs. the Longhorns in Dallas, and the final 2 (home for Texas Tech and a suddenly tricky Bedlam game at Oklahoma State).  Not easy, but they'll both be favored in all their remaining games.

3 to 1: USC

USC as the most likely team behind OU and Mizzou? Yep - they have what amounts to a cakewalk through the Pac-10, and barring another hiccup should finish the season with one loss.  If history is any indicator, that should be enough to propel them into the championship game.

5 to 1: Penn State, Alabama

PSU has the horses to run the table in the Big Ten, but wins at both Wisconsin and Ohio State might be too much to ask.  Even if they do drop one, they still have an outside chance of making it. Meanwhile, Alabama is the most impressive and surprising team so far, but I still don't give them a good shot at going undefeated.  It's almost a guarantee that they'll lose one or two SEC games. They're just too young.  Or are they?

8 to 1: SEC Grab Bag (Florida, LSU, Georgia)

We all know the SEC is loaded, that's why these teams are so low on the odds chart.  Florida and Georgia would likely have to run the table, and LSU potentially has margin for error but unfortunately has plenty of games to make said error.

10 to 1: Texas, Texas Tech

Sorry guys, Oklahoma and Missouri are the class of the Big 12, and you ain't getting past them both.

12 to 1: Ohio State

Yes, the Buckeyes still have an outside shot.  A lot would have to fall into place, but it's not impossible to see.

20 to 1: BYU

The fact that they're in the top 10 so early in the season gives them at least an outside shot.  They need to continue walloping opponents and hope Washington and UCLA can make some hay in the Pac 10.  If they do go undefeated they'll have a legitimate argument.

30 to 1: the Field

Of course most teams are out of the picture, so when I say "the field" I mean all teams who still have one or no losses.  Yes, that includes Vanderbilt, the national darling.  I hate dumping on Cinderella because their story is so entertaining and engaging, but the fact is, all 3 SEC teams they've beaten are mid-level at best (including Auburn, who you'll remember I labeled overrated about 3 weeks ago).  Much tougher challenges are to come.

If I was pegged to make a prediction right now, I'd say Oklahoma or Missouri vs. USC or Penn State in Miami on January 8.  For fans of other teams, take heart that my preseason prediction was Ohio State-Florida.  Yikes.

I fell back to earth last week, finishing 8-7.  I'll try to do better this time.

1. Texas vs. Oklahoma

A high noon showdown at the Cotton Bowl.  This has become the yearly rivalry that dominates the national title picture, and this year is no different.  A Sooner win solidifies their #1 ranking; a Longhorn win puts them in the Big 12 South, and maybe the national title game, driver's seat.  I wasn't sold on Texas until they took apart Colorado last week.  Colt McCoy is a legit Heisman contender with his efficient play and gaudy numbers.  But the Longhorns are the underdog in a game where the favorite has won 9 straight.  I don't see that trend changing.  Oklahoma is very impressive, and I'd give them the edge in a deep Big 12 race because they have the most solid defense in a league full of offense.  I think their D will rattle McCoy some and the Sooners will win fairly comfortably.

Oklahoma 38, Texas 24

2. Penn State at Wisconsin

As a Penn State fan, this game should terrify me.  A night game against a good team in a tough stadium.  And the Nittany Lions are only 33-28 in Big Ten road games since entering the conference in 1993.  Wisconsin's dropped 2 tough games in a row and will come out hungry - if they have any hope remaining of winning the Big Ten, they've GOT to win this one.  But I'm not terrified.  A little trepidation maybe, but certainly not terrified.  I wasn't impressed by either Wisconsin or Ohio State last week, and the Badgers in particular look like a team with some offensive issues.  Penn State's defense isn't great, but should be able to handle Wisconsin.  Especially in defending the pass.  The Nittany Lion pass rush will force some bad throws from Allan Evridge, and their secondary will look to turn those into picks.  Wisconsin has to establish the ground game to take the pressure off Evridge, and with their massive O-line it's possible.  But PSU looks like a bend-but-don't-break defense, and I expect Badger scoring drives to be more of the field goal variety.  Offensively, I think Penn State will come out more sharp than last week - they'll be ready to silence the remaining doubters on the prime time stage.

Penn State 27, Wisconsin 16

3. LSU at Florida

This was possibly the best regular season game last year, and should again be a hard-hitting, intense affair.  LSU is already talking about taking Tim Tebow out of the game, and the trash talk might only increase throughout the week.  Both teams will be ready to go come Saturday night.  It took Florida 2 quarters to wake out of their post-Ole Miss funk, but they're back on track now.  Gators in a close one.

Florida 20, LSU 13

4. Oklahoma State at Missouri

The Cowboys have feasted on cupcakes for a month and a half, and we all know what happens when you eat too much junk food - you get fat.  Their offensive numbers in particular have quite a robust waistline.  You also get slow, which is how they'll appear against Missouri's torrid offense.  The drastic leap in competition will catch the Cowboys flat footed for a time, but they'll also score plenty points of their own.  Missouri's defense remains suspect, even after their solid performance against Nebraska last week.

Missouri 55, Oklahoma State 42

5. Notre Dame at North Carolina

North Carolina is getting better every week, and Notre Dame still looks fairly average.  The Irish will struggle to defend the Tar Heel receivers, and Carolina will gain some more swagger with a win over another name program.

North Carolina 31, Notre Dame 21

6. Clemson at Wake Forest

The point was driven home again last week - Thursday night games are tough to predict.  All 5 ESPN Thursday night contests have gone to the underdog, and Wake Forest will probably end up the favorite at home.  Look out Deacons!  Clemson underachieves, but I think they'll run through the holes Navy exposed 2 Saturdays ago.

Clemson 27, Wake Forest 23

7. Purdue at Ohio State

Uh-oh, the Buckeyes are back.  Their win over Wisconsin, while not overly impressive, was a huge confidence builder for Terrelle Pryor.  Which reminds me - why is it that people aren't making more of the fact that Ohio State completely abandoned Todd Boeckman, a QB who took them to the national championship game in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year last season?  How often does a national title contender openly give up on their season to build for their future, yet still maintain a shot at the national title?  And why isn't this analyzed more?

Ohio State 31, Purdue 17

8. Michigan State at Northwestern

Who'd have guessed that this would be such an important Big Ten game, or that these 2 teams would have one loss combined at this point in the season?  Northwestern looks pretty legitimate - veteran QB, solid defense, talented tailback.  They won't win the Big Ten, but they'll be a factor as the season unfolds.

Northwestern 30, Michigan State 24

9. Colorado at Kansas

I whiffed on Colorado as an upset pick last week, but I'm not afraid to take them again.  The Buffaloes look like a team who can spring an upset, and Kansas looks like a team ready to be knocked off, even at home.

Colorado 35, Kansas 30

10. Nebraska at Texas Tech

I guess Nebraska isn't back yet.  Oh well - no one's complaining.  Graham Harrell and his fleet of weapons must be salivating while watching tape of the Cornhuskers defensive performance against Chase Daniel and Missouri, and even against plodding Virginia Tech.  Fifty points might only be the beginning.

Texas Tech 56, Nebraska 35

11. Arizona State at USC

The Sun Devils are playing the wrong team if they want to end their 3 game losing streak.

USC 45, Arizona State 17

12. Tennessee at Georgia

Under normal circumstances, this would qualify as a big game.  But Tennessee looks like a rock solid pick for 6th in the SEC East, which could get Phil Fulmer run out of Knoxville right quick.  Georgia's had a week to stew on their performance against Alabama, and they're playing the right team to take out their frustrations.

Georgia 31, Tennessee 10

13. South Carolina at Kentucky

South Carolina is quietly solid, but they'll struggle against Kentucky's stout defense.

Kentucky 14, South Carolina 9

14. Arizona at Stanford

Two surprising Pac Ten teams match up in Palo Alto.  With the way this conference looks, the winner could be looking at a potential 3rd or 4th place finish.  Arizona is better right now, but as long as Jim Harbaugh is there, Stanford won't be far behind.

Arizona 34, Stanford 28

15. Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Vandy comes off an emotional win and an emotional week with College Gameday in town.  Now they get a taste of what life is like as an SEC contender - a tough road trip against a team that will be geared up to play you, after a hard-fought home win.  I don't have the stats to back it up, but it's a good bet that upsets happen in this scenario more in the SEC than any other conference.  Mississippi State has been pretty bad so far, but competitive at home and at LSU 2 weeks ago.  And they're coming off a bye week.  As much as I hate to pick against the Cinderella Commodores...

Mississippi State 16, Vanderbilt 13