1. Consistency: We covered this last week - sometimes the team you got last week, you don't get this week. That's just the way it works in this game.
2. Youth: It's easy to forget that these are 18-22 year old kids playing a complex and difficult team sport. A lot of these guys are impressionable, and the overexposure of college football by the media gets to their heads: when you're told over and over again just how good you are, and how bad the next opponent is, you believe it, no matter what your coach says. Coach gets in these guys ears little more than 20 hours a week, but SportsCenter is always on. Maybe this is a big reason East Carolina has dropped their last 2. Also with youth comes that inconsistency I've been harping on (in physical and mental preparation, game management, controlling emotions, etc.).
3. Momentum: Football more than almost any other sport is a game of momentum. If you've got it, you're golden. Momentum changes hands several times a game, and if you manage to get the snowball rolling down the hill, all the talent in the world might not matter. The Oregon State-USC game is a perfect example. The Beavers got ahold of all the momentum, with the home crowd behind them, rattling Mark Sanchez, and USC couldn't make up the deficit.
4. Home Field Advantage: It makes a huge difference. Even though this past weekend was against the norm, most upsets happen at the home field of the lower-rated team.
5. Luck: Sometimes a game swings on one or two, sometimes fluky plays. The football is a weird shape and it can bounce in some strange ways.
6. Big plays: A game often boils down to one or two key plays. There's a reason Pontiac gives money away for a "Game Changing Performance" each week, even beyond just wanting to make a forced connection between their cars and football games. Mississippi blocks an extra point. West Virginia misses a short field goal against Colorado 2 weeks ago. Et cetera, et cetera.
7. Scholarships: This might be the biggest reason of all. In the years before the current scholarship limitations, big programs would load up on all the best available talent, regardless of whether they'd play or not. Coaches would hide talented players on their bench just to keep them away from their rivals. So smaller programs (or non-"name" programs) would struggle to keep up. But now, in the era of the 85 scholarship limit, the talent gap has shrunk. And sports has gotten to the point where talent is developed and cultivated from the youth level more efficiently, so there is more to go around. Teams now are much more evenly matched than ever before, and it'll only become more and more like that. Going undefeated is really becoming a feat.
In other news, I nailed the precise score in 3 games last week, an achievement more likely attributed to luck than skill, but still noteworthy nonetheless. My Nittany Lions backed me up with their 38-24 win, and I matched the Ohio State-Minnesota score too. I also got the score for the UNC-Miami contest, but my flip of the coin landed for the wrong team (literally). Even with the plethora of upsets, last week was my strongest yet. Let's see if I can keep it up...
1. Penn State at Purdue
You'll have to excuse me for this, but it's going to become routine that I'll lead off my selections with Penn State each week. I know more about them than any other team, and as long as they're on fire like this, I'll get my boasting out of the way and spare you from it the rest of the way. With that said, the Nittany Lions cleared hurdle #1 fairly cleanly last week, struggling a bit early then coming on strong late. Their fourth quarter drive directly after Illinois cut their lead to 7 was VERY impressive. Darryl Clark showed poise and maturity in marching his team down the field for what would prove to be the stake-in-the-heart touchdown. That drive showed me alot about this team, and about Clark in particular. He's tough, and he's a good leader. This week will be his toughest challenge yet as a starting QB, in his first Big Ten road game. Purdue's 2 home games have both been heartstoppers, but I don't see them hanging with Penn State for 4 quarters. Expect another game where Penn State has some struggles early, then win fairly comfortably with a second half surge. Darryl Clark makes another step in his maturity here. As a sidenote, although their schedule is very difficult, the order of PSU's games works out very well for them, as each step will serve as a building block for Clark. He won't have to make a drastic leap in competition level or environment from one week to the next. If "at Wisconsin" was their first Big Ten game, it would be a different story. Just some food for thought as Penn State runs their gauntlet.
Penn State 31, Purdue 16
2. Ohio State at Wisconsin
Ohio State will be a vastly different team by the end of the season than they are now. Terrelle Pryor is a freak of an athlete and I don't expect his maturation process to be a long one. But there will be some bumps along the road. This is likely to be one of them. Everyone's aware of Ohio State's offensive struggles this year, but a bigger question is: what happened to their defense? This was an impenetrable unit last year (except against LSU), and this year they seem, well, ordinary. They're particularly susceptible to the run, which is Wisconsin's strong suit. I think their mammoth offensive line will carve some nice holes for P.J. Hill, which will in turn open up the passing game. Wisconsin's got to turn those drives into TD's though - settling for field goals is what gave Michigan a chance to make their comeback last week.
Wisconsin 26, Ohio State 20
3. Illinois at Michigan
Staying in the Big Ten for this one, an important game for Illinois if they hope to stay in the conference title race. Michigan, as expected, is very inconsistent - awful in the first half and on fire in the second against Wisconsin. The Wolverines have talent, but their season is shaping up to be one of those where they alternate wins and losses and end up about 7-5. I just don't think they have a complete game in them. I think the Illini defense will handle Michigan pretty well - they face a better version of roughly the same offense in practice every day.
Illinois 27, Michigan 13
4. Pittsburgh at South Florida
Pitt has a good team somewhere under the facade of mediocrity they've built, and I'm still not sold on South Florida yet. Don't be surprised to see an upset in this one. Thursday night games can be an equalizer too, because of the lack of consistency in preparation. But until the Panthers step out of their concrete shoes, I'm not ready to pick them in a game like this.
South Florida 27, Pittsburgh 23
5. Connecticut at North Carolina
I think both of these teams will end up ranked somewhere between 15-25 at season's end, which makes this an underrated matchup. Connecticut is better coached, but North Carolina is more talented, and I still think they'll win the ACC. And they're at home in this one.
North Carolina 23, Connecticut 20
6. Florida State at Miami (FL)
Years ago this was THE game in college football. My, how times have changed. A few years from now it could again be the marquee game of the season, but right now both these teams are in reloading mode. Miami is a little ahead of Florida State in the process.
Miami (FL) 16, Florida State 10
7. Missouri at Nebraska
Missouri rolls on, I just don't see Nebraska hanging with them.
Missouri 49, Nebraska 24
8. Texas at Colorado
Colorado has a very underrated home field advantage at Folsom Field, beating West Virginia a few weeks ago, and taking out Oklahoma in a thriller last year. That makes this an even more dangerous game for Texas, who could be glancing over the fence to their showdown at the State Fair with Oklahoma the following Saturday. The Longhorns haven't played anyone of note yet, even though they've been ringing up strong result after strong result. They're still green in some areas and I think the Buffs will try to run the ball, control the clock, and win by beating Texas into submission. It says here they'll succeed. The upset train roars on.
Colorado 31, Texas 27
9. Texas Tech at Kansas State
Texas Tech has been lurking around the top 15 all year, and this is their first real test of the season. Kansas State has a good offense with a future NFL quarterback at the helm, and I think they'll push Texas Tech. We'll learn a lot about the Red Raiders in this one.
Texas Tech 38, Kansas State 35
10. Kentucky at Alabama
Alabama is due for a letdown. They've looked awfully good, but you have to imagine their youth will catch up with them at some point. This week they'll hear all about how good they are, how they're suddenly among the BCS title favorites, how they've completely shut down all comers. But let me remind you of upset reason #2: youth. Will it get to their heads this week? Maybe. Even if it doesn't, they face a solid Kentucky team with a good defense. Alabama's inability to score an offensive touchdown at home against Tulane in their second game is stuck in my head, and I have a feeling Kentucky will give Alabama's offense fits. Should we be shocked if the Tide fall? Probably not, but that's what you'll hear the analysts saying.
Kentucky 21, Alabama 16
11. Auburn at Vanderbilt
If you had a horrible accident the night before the 2008 college football season began and lay in a coma until today, and then picked up the paper to check the rankings, finding the following line: "19. Vanderbilt", you'd think you were still in a coma, right? Yet here we stand, with the Commodores in the top 20. The rankings often will look funny in late September/early October, when upsets have shaken things up and a number of unexpected teams are still undefeated. Eventually they sort themselves out. I think Vanderbilt will move up even higher, because I think they'll beat Auburn. Auburn hasn't been impressive by any stretch, and they'll struggle to score points again in this one. Vandy has confidence and their crowd, though small, will make things difficult for the Tigers.
Vanderbilt 17, Auburn 14
12. South Carolina at Mississippi
Ole Miss comes home as conquering heroes, but the week after a tough SEC road game is never easy. South Carolina won't be the test some SEC teams would be, but this will likely be close. I'll go with the momentum of Ole Miss over the molasses of South Carolina.
Mississippi 24, South Carolina 23
13. Oregon at USC
Oregon bounced back from their loss to Boise State by obliterating Washington State, which is a good panacea for anybody. I think USC will bounce back from their upset loss to Oregon State by taking it out on the Ducks, the other team from the Beaver State.
USC 48, Oregon 20
14. Arizona State at California
Arizona State needed a week off after 2 bad weeks in a row. They'll be looking to redeem themselves against a good, but schizophrenic Cal team. This should be a good one, and I think Rudy Carpenter will lead his team to a win.
Arizona State 30, California 24
15. Oregon State at Utah
Oregon State clearly is not the same team at home as it is on the road. Since this is in Salt Lake City, Utah gets the nod here.
Utah 26, Oregon State 14
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