Some things we learned last week: Michigan's offense still needs lots of work (and a quarterback). The ACC may be worse than the Mountain West or the WAC. I did not get a very good read on Louisville's offense (my prediction: 48 points, their actual output: 2). Perhaps hype is not good for teams like Pitt and Clemson. USC is again loaded, and has already emerged as the frontrunner for the year.
1. Miami (FL) at Florida
There will be a time when Miami is an annual top 10 team - Randy Shannon is a good coach and has the program going in the right direction. But this game appears to be a mismatch. Florida is one of the most balanced teams in the country, with a defense that looks like it will match the superb offensive talent they've stockpiled. Even if this game weren't in the Swamp it would be ugly. Miami: come back in 2 years, you'll be ready to compete with teams like Florida then. Florida 42, Miami 14
2. Oregon State at Penn State
This game is being talked about as a test for Penn State, but I don't see it that way. Oregon State was outclassed by Stanford last week, a team that is improving but certainly aren't going to go out and compete for the Pac-10 title. Penn State is one of the most underrated teams going into this season, ranked 22 in the preseason polls, yet with a roster loaded with experience, talent, speed, and depth. All that appears to be lacking is stability and consistency at quarterback, and the Nittany Lions have the luxury of a soft non-conference schedule to give both Daryl Clark and Pat Devlin some good experience under center. They'll need it once they hit the meat of their Big Ten schedule, a brutal 5 game slate from the last weekend in September through the month of October. PSU will get tested, just not yet. Penn State 41, Oregon State 21
3. Mississippi at Wake Forest
Wake Forest looks to be the flag bearers for the ACC this year, which is by no means a knock on the Demon Deacons. Jim Grobe's squad is a fundamentally sound, good football team, and he's quietly built a solid, consistent program. But the best team in a major conference ought to cruise through a game like this, at home against a mid-to-lower level team from another major conference. How much differently would you look at this game if it were, say, Oklahoma State at USC? But this appears to be a very close matchup and a legitimate chance at an Ole Miss upset. I've gone back and forth on this one for days. It would be wise to go with the consistency of Jim Grobe's Demon Deacons, but I can't shake how terrible the rest of the ACC has looked. And Ole Miss has just enough buzz as the "it" sleeper in the SEC that I'm willing to take a chance on them. Mississippi 24, Wake Forest 23
4. Cincinnati at Oklahoma
Last year Oklahoma fell asleep at the wheel twice (Colorado and Texas Tech), and it cost them a shot at the national championship. This looks like the same type of game: a good, not great, opponent with enough talent and a good enough defense to frustrate the Sooners and cause some turnovers. Oklahoma tends to panic when that happens and dig deeper holes for themselves. The only difference is that this game is in Norman, and that, along with the wisdom they ought to have gained from those losses last season, is why I'm picking the Sooners. But they should be wary. Oklahoma 45, Cincinnati 27
5. Central Michigan at Georgia
The number one team in the nation playing a MAC team at home should be one of those opportunities for the alumni to cut out at halftime and enjoy the early September weather. But Central Michigan isn't a pushover. QB Dan LeFevour is a poor man's Tim Tebow (well, maybe "poor man's" is understating him a bit, let's call him the middle-class, or "Costco" Tim Tebow), and he and the Chippewa offense could pose some problems for the Bulldogs. I expect the Chippewas to keep things interesting through halftime, then be overwhelmed by the wave of talent Mark Richt will throw at them. Georgia 48, Central Michigan 24
6. South Florida at Central Florida
Central Florida is the defending C-USA champion, but they were smoked 64-12 by the Bulls last year. I think this game will be closer, but South Florida clearly has more talent. Interestingly, this game could become a premier matchup in the next 5-10 years. South Florida has emerged as an impending national power, and UCF is a sleeping giant, the largest university in talent-rich Florida. South Florida 33, Central Florida 13
7. Georgia Tech at Boston College
Georgia Tech will pose matchup problems for anyone they play this year, simply because the offense they run is so different than any others their opponents will face. Boston College has a good defense, but they'll be tested by the Yellow Jacket's option attack. I think Georgia Tech will move the ball, but Boston College will also be able to score just enough points to get the win at home. Boston College 24, Georgia Tech 20
8. West Virginia at East Carolina
Last week I commented that mob ties were possibly the culprit behind how East Carolina managed to open the season with home games against perennial powers Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Then I flipped on the TV Saturday and learned that the game against the Hokies was an a neutral site in Charlotte. My bad. Still, they played like they were the home team, and certainly had neutral observers jumping on the bandwagon as the game wore on. If they manage to back that upset up with another one against West Virginia, expect pulled hamstrings across the country as bandwagon jumpers make the leap. Maybe then we'd all learn exactly which of the Carolinas houses East Carolina University, or whether "East Carolina" has recently earned its statehood. Too bad West Virginia isn't Virginia Tech. The Pirates will compete, but West Virginia has too many weapons. West Virginia 38, East Carolina 23
9. Southern Mississippi at Auburn
All Auburn had to do was hit the snooze alarm last week to get past overmatched Louisiana-Monroe; the Tigers will actually need to get out of bed and come to play this week with perennial giant-killer Southern Miss coming to town. The Golden Eagles have pulled upsets of this caliber in the past, but Auburn is too talented and well-coached to have the rug pulled out from under them in this one. Auburn 27, Southern Miss 9
10. Stanford at Arizona State
This one may be closer than people think. Jim Harbaugh is doing a great job bringing Stanford back to respectability, and the Cardinal have some momentum after a good win over Oregon State. Remember that Stanford shocked USC on the road last year, and the Sun Devils are no USC. I'm still not sold on Arizona State as a Pac-10 contender, several of their 10 wins last year came in close games and their defense is a bit suspect. I might look like an idiot on Sunday, but I'm taking Stanford in another big upset. (Don't worry, I'll still probably look like an idiot even if I nail this pick.) Stanford 31, Arizona State 30
11. California at Washington State
Cal looked pretty solid in beating a talented Michigan State team Saturday night, and shouldn't have trouble with Wazzu. My only hesitation comes with knowing that Cal balked in a few games last year that they should have won. Still, I can't justify taking Washington State - even if Cal shows up in Pullman flat, they should beat the Cougars. California 34, Washington State 14
12. South Carolina at Vanderbilt
After last week's games involving these teams (Vanderbilt's surprisingly easy win over Miami (Ohio) and South Carolina's ugly turnover-happy win over N.C. State), Vanderbilt will be a popular pick to win this one. I'm not buying it. South Carolina is more talented and should win, even in Nashville. South Carolina 16, Vanderbilt 10
13. BYU at Washington
This is a dangerous game for BYU. Washington has the ability to give them trouble, and they just might have next opponent UCLA in the back of their minds after watching the Bruins late night rally to beat Tennessee. I even pegged Washington as my surprise team from the Pac-10 this year, thinking they'd upset BYU. But when push comes to shove, I can't follow through. Washington's thrashing at the hands of Oregon last week is still stuck in my head. BYU 45, Washington 28
14. Connecticut at Temple
News flash! Temple is above .500! Sure, it's a 1-0 start, but this is Temple we're talking about. And they did it rather impressively too, with a 35-7 win at Army. Connecticut is definitely a more difficult opponent, but they barely beat the Owls last year, at home no less. In Philadelphia this year, I think Temple prolongs their stay above .500 by knocking off UConn. Kudos to Al Golden for what he's doing with the Owls - probably the toughest job in college football. Temple 22, Connecticut 17
15. Minnesota at Bowling Green
One of the upset-springers of last week comes home to face another BCS-conference school. Minnesota looks to be a lesser team than Pitt, and the Gophers struggled to get past Northern Illinois last week, a team picked to finish behind Bowling Green in the MAC this year. Seems like an easy pick - go with Bowling Green, right? As Lee Corso says weekly, not so fast my friend! These two played overtime last year, and Bowling Green may experience a letdown after the adrenaline of knocking off a top-25 team. Minnesota should improve as the season goes on and their young roster gains some experience. Minnesota 38, Bowling Green 31
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