I think one reason I've been so consistently mediocre is because so many teams have been consistently inconsistent. Take Louisville for example: the Cardinals dropped a big deuce on the scoreboard against Kentucky (innuendo intended), enticing me to pick them to fall flat again against Kansas State last week. But they were a different team Wednesday night, playing solid defense and scoring rather easily. And they're not the only ones: Maryland (loss to Middle Tennessee, beat Cal), UCLA (beat Tennessee, awful losses to BYU and Arizona), even highly ranked BYU (handed a win at Washington, 2 straight lopsided shutouts afterward) have all been maddeningly inconsistent. In the early season this inconsistency rears its head because of youth on the roster, unfamiliar nonconference foes, and teams still working out kinks in their systems. Expect things to even out a bit over the next few weeks as conference play starts up and coaches figure out just how to work best with what they've got. Hopefully that also will mean better results from we prognosticators.
1. Illinois at Penn State
Last week I touted PSU as the most underrated team in the country, and now it's put up or shut up time. The Lions enter this hellacious five-game stretch: Illinois, at Purdue, at Wisconsin, Michigan, at Ohio State. Yikes. We'll know soon just how good Penn State is. The first test is against an Illini team that gave up 52 to Missouri and hung on to win by 3 against Louisiana-Lafayette. At first glance this might look like another PSU rout, especially with kickoff coming at 8pm in what will be the rowdiest stadium in the country. But I think this will be a struggle for the Lions. They had some major kick coverage issues last week against Temple, and Arrelious Benn took one back on them last year. Penn State has had trouble defending spread offenses, losing to Juice Williams and the Illini last season and struggling to beat Indiana last year and Northwestern in years past. They'll give up a few big plays and have trouble getting off the field on third down. And Penn State has been a bit sloppy in their last 2 games in protecting the ball. Last week 3 different players fumbled, and QB Darryl Clark has coughed one up in each of the past 2 games. Still, this game is in Happy Valley, it is at night, and it will be a sea of white. That alone is worth 7-10 points. And in spite of the potential pitfalls, the Nittany Lions have too much firepower for the Illinois defense to handle, and State's D will bend a bit, but not break against the Illini spread. Penn State 38, Illinois 24
2. Alabama at Georgia
Georgia survived 2 road tests, and they're rewarded with a visit from a surprise top-10 team. The Bulldogs are balanced and deep, and will likely prove too much for Alabama's youth. Nick Saban has his boys playing well, but their inexperience will show in the most difficult environment they've faced yet. This is just chapter 2 in what will be a long saga of SEC barnburners. Georgia 26, Alabama 13
3. Tennessee at Auburn
Both these teams come off tough SEC losses, and we learned last year that the second leg of a difficult back-to-back conference stretch was too much for some teams to handle. Auburn is in greater danger of a letdown because of how heartbreaking their loss to LSU was, and their game was more physical and emotional than the Vols game against Florida. Getting blown out probably saved them some energy for this one. If only they had the talent to go along with that energy. I expect a close game, but Auburn's defense will prove too tough for a plodding Tennessee offense. Auburn 20, Tennessee 14
4. Colorado vs. Florida State
This is technically a "neutral-site" game in Jacksonville, but don't tell that to Colorado. They still have to fly cross-country into Florida. They'll face a different Florida State team than the one that just lost to Wake Forest, as the Seminoles return 5 defensive starters to an already strong defense. And the Florida State offense should bounce back from their 7 turnover debacle against a Colorado defense that isn't as experienced or hungry. FSU really wants to re-enter the national spotlight, and wins in games like this are ones to build on. Florida State 21, Colorado 17
5. Virginia Tech at Nebraska
Nebraska is flying under the radar right now, but you know the Cornhuskers desperately want to be back in the national conversation again. The program has been mired in mediocrity for years, and has to be tired of hearing about the six or seven other Big 12 teams getting national love. They get a night game against a Virginia Tech team on a down year, and I think the Huskers will beat Virginia Tech and emerge in the top 25, and the mouths of college football reporters across the country, Sunday morning. Nebraska 27, Virginia Tech 20
6. Wisconsin at Michigan
Wisconsin looks like a team that will contend for the Big Ten, and maybe even the BCS, title all season long, but this could be a stumbling block for the Badgers. Michigan has a sneaky-good defense, and Wisconsin's attack showed that it can be slowed, scoring only 13 points against Fresno State. The Badgers outclass the Wolverines in talent and execution this year, but this will not be an easy win. Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20
7. Connecticut at Louisville
UConn is the major conference program that gets the least respect. Last year they contended for the Big East title, returned 19 starters, started 4-0, and still can't crack the national rankings. Randy Edsall is doing a marvelous job building a winning program in Storrs. The rest of the country either thinks it's cute, or doesn't bother to notice. But these Huskies could be your 2008 Big East champions, and not just because the conference is lousy. The Huskies could be the next Wake Forest - a well-coached, disciplined, play-to-the-whistle football team playing at a university with little to no tradition. They'll earn your respect them by going out, playing hard and winning each week. Louisville is next in line. Connecticut 31, Louisville 23
8. South Florida at N.C. State
I'm very afraid to pick South Florida in this one. The results of their first 2 road games this season? An overtime win against UCF (acceptable, I guess, it was against a team that was playing with a chip on its shoulder) and an ugly 17-9 result at Florida International, one of the worst programs in 1-A football. N.C. State comes off an emotional overtime win against national darling East Carolina, but they lost their best player on offense and defense in the process. I don't think they'll be able to spring another upset, but I really hate taking the Bulls. South Florida 19, N.C. State 16
9. North Carolina at Miami (FL)
Tough loss for the Tar Heels to Virginia Tech last week - a win there could have been a springboard to an ACC championship game run. Now they face the prospect of falling to 0-2 in conference with a tough road trip to a young, talented, and hungry Canes squad. These 2 teams are actually mirror images of one another - young teams with talent and some swagger, and the pieces in place to win conference titles in the coming years. In the next 2 years this could turn into a centerpiece game for the ACC. Since I've been wavering back and forth so much with this one, I will literally settle it with a coin flip. Heads to the Hurricanes, Tails to the Tar Heels. Here goes. Coin on the thumb... Flipping now... Heads it is! Miami (FL) 28, North Carolina 24
10. Purdue at Notre Dame
Notre Dame was outplayed by a very good Michigan State team last week, and while Purdue could do the same thing to the Irish, I don't think they will - they're coming off 2 hard fought, down to the wire games and that expended energy will catch up to them. Notre Dame 27, Purdue 17
11. USC at Oregon State
USC may not win quite as big here as they did in their first 2 games - Corvallis is a tough place to play and the Trojans have struggled there before. They'll overwhelm the Beavers with sheer talent, but Oregon State will put up a good fight in front of a national TV audience. USC 42, Oregon State 21
12. Minnesota at Ohio State
Shh! Minnesota is 4-0! They sneak into Columbus this week hoping to prey on a weakened and wounded Buckeye squad trying to regain its identity with a true freshman quarterback. But can the Gophers beat the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe? You bet they can - they're gaining confidence each week and are actually playing some good football. Minnesota is catching Ohio State at the exact right time - still working all-world freshman Terelle Pryor into the starting role and mending star tailback Beanie Wells. I actually might be talking myself into taking the upset here! Wait, wait, what am I saying? This is still Ohio State, and they did make some strides with Pryor last week. Ohio State 34, Minnesota 21
13. Maryland at Clemson
I will take the upset here. Maryland has the balanced offense needed to keep Clemson's offense off the field, and the Terps look to be a team that has their feet under them after knocking off Cal a few weeks ago. Ralph Friedgen has said that this could wind up being one of his best teams. Tommy Bowden will be feeling the heat by Saturday night. Maryland 30, Clemson 27
14. TCU at Oklahoma
TCU beat Oklahoma in Norman a few years ago, and the Horned Frogs enter this contest with a freshly stamped 24 next to their team name. I think they'll give the Sooners a good fight for about 2 1/2 quarters, then wilt under the Oklahoma muscle. Oklahoma 38, TCU 27
15. Fresno State at UCLA
I hesitate even picking this game because it looks like such an easy win. Fresno State is still smarting a bit from their loss to Wisconsin, and they'll look to take out some frustration on a worsening UCLA team. And while we're on the subject - do you know that there are 6 non-BCS conference teams in the AP top 25? Meanwhile, only 4 teams combined represent the ACC, Big East, and Pac 10. Time to start calling 2008 "The Year of the Non-BCS"! Fresno State 23, UCLA 10
16. Arkansas at Texas
Bonus pick! Hurricane Ike postponed this game for 2 weeks, so I'll re-pick it here to make up the lost game. I haven't seen anything to persuade me against picking my original thought of a Texas blowout, so I'll stick with that. Texas 48, Arkansas 17
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