Week 3: Should East Carolina Be Ranked #1?

The East Carolina Pirates are the hot topic in college football right now, and rightfully so - they shellacked West Virginia in the wake of their thrilling win over Virginia Tech.  Now, I'm not going to sit here and tell you that the Pirates are the best team in the nation, but if you were to forget the preseason rankings and begin ordering the teams from 1 to 25 after week 2, East Carolina would have to be in the argument for number 1.  Here's why: East Carolina has the best set of wins in the country right now, beating two traditional powers, both ranked, one at a neutral site.  Against West Virginia they dominated, winning by 3 touchdowns and holding what was considered a powerful, high-octane offense to 3 points.  No other team can claim two scalps of that size at this point in the season.  If you're ranking teams by who they've played and how they've done, ECU sits at the top of the heap.  But the rankings aren't judged that way - they're subjective opinions by coaches and writers.  So intimidation and flash count.  The Purple Pirates don't have much of that, but they do have quality.  That alone doesn't mean they should be number one, but it does merit them consideration.

This week is full of enticing and intriguing matchups - by far the best weekend of the season so far, at least on paper.  Saturday should be quite a day.  Here's my take:

1. Ohio State at USC

I'm going to give Ohio State a pass after their dismal performance last week - that game was the classic case of looking past your overmatched opponent.  USC will be the choice of an overwhelming amount of prognosticators, who will take one look at the circumstances of the Buckeyes game and write them off.  But this is still the same team that played in the national championship game last year, and they're just as talented as USC.  The Trojans did look unstoppable in their opener with Virginia, but that's Virginia.  Ohio State and USC really are quite evenly matched.  Both have powerful, intimidating defenses.  Both have loads of talent at the skill positions.  Both have proven veteran coaches.  Even across the board so far.  I see 2 x-factors that will swing the game one way or the other.  One is the status of Beanie Wells.  If he's healthy, their offense is a different animal; without him they easily could be come one-dimensional and easy to defend.  He'll play, it's just a matter of at what level.  The second is experience.  Ohio State has a boatload of it after 2 years of big games and BCS frustration.  USC is very young, and Mark Sanchez is unproven on this stage.  They've got more talent than any other team in college football, but you can't underestimate the value of experience and leadership.  I think Beanie Wells plays well enough to keep USC's defense off-balance and the Trojans' inexperience will hurt them in the form of big turnovers or ill-timed penalties.  Ohio State 23, USC 17

2. Michigan at Notre Dame

Remember one year ago, when both the Irish and the Wolverines each limped into this game at 0-2? Savor that glorious thought.  And savor this one too: their records may not indicate it this time, but these 2 teams may be just as bad this year.  Michigan ended up beating Florida on New Year's Day, so their team really was pretty good, while Notre Dame was one of the worst teams in all of college football.  Michigan is definitely, perhaps substantially, worse this year.  And after nearly honking their game against woeful San Diego State last Saturday, Notre Dame is still far from the much-improved team many were touting them to be.  Expect an ugly game on Saturday, with Michigan's defense controlling the game.  That's one thing the Wolverines do have in great supply.  Michigan 16, Notre Dame 7

3. Oklahoma at Washington

Pac Ten officials should get plenty of pub surrounding this game.  Two years ago Oklahoma played in a Pac Ten stadium (Oregon) and were jobbed by two horrendous calls in the fourth quarter, costing them the game.  They return to the Pacific Northwest for the first time since that incident, visiting a team that was on the receiving end of another egregious officiating decision, last week against BYU (although the case can be made that the excessive celebration call didn't really affect the outcome - did you see the blocked PAT?  BYU didn't just block it, they smothered it.  Who's to say they wouldn't have done the same if it were from the normal distance?).  The Huskies, and especially Jake Locker, showed some serious moxie in that game, but the Sooners are a much more difficult challenge.  Oklahoma 35, Washington 21

4. Kansas at South Florida

Two of last years Cinderellas square off on Friday night.  I'm taking Kansas on the road, and here's why: South Florida is way too mistake-prone.  I've seen them make multiple dumb mistakes in several games, both last year and last week, and give up the ball too many times.  They're an emerging power, but they've got to sew up that problem before they take the next step.  Kansas will make them pay.  Kansas 30, South Florida 24

5. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

The Hokies don't look so bad anymore, do they?  Georgia Tech will be a popular upset pick, but Virginia Tech has the speed on defense to handle Paul Johnson's triple option attack.  Being in Blacksburg will help too.  Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 10

6. Wisconsin at Fresno State

This is an intriguing game, with Fresno State looking to nab a big victory to add to their win at Rutgers, giving them a springboard to a BCS run.  The trouble is, Wisconsin appeared to wake up last week after falling behind 14-0 to Marshall.  They proceeded to ring up 51 in three quarters.  I'm not sure Fresno State will have an answer for their power running attack.  This should be a close, entertaining game, and the crowd in Fresno will be in a frenzy, but it won't be enough to push them past the Badgers.  Wisconsin 27, Fresno State 24

7. UCLA at BYU

UCLA floats into this one on the momentum of their upset of Tennessee last Monday, and BYU comes home on the high of escaping a serious upset threat.  If this were in LA, I'd give the Bruins more of a chance, but I'm not sure Kevin Craft has enough magic left in that arm of his.  His four first half picks are too hard to overlook too.  BYU 31, UCLA 17

8. Auburn at Mississippi State

Auburn's defense has been stalwart so far, and they run into an offense that is best described as "present".  A shutout is a good possibility, but don't expect the Tigers to do a lot of scoring either.  Auburn 16, Mississippi State 0

9. Georgia at South Carolina

Before the season I would have circled this as a dangerous game for the Bulldogs.  But the head ballcoach has got some issues to deal with under center and the Gamecocks don't appear yet to be able to compete with the upper echelon of the SEC.  Yet.  They'll get there someday, maybe not this year, but Spurrier will bring a division title to Columbia before his time there is through.  Georgia has too much for them this week though.  Georgia 26, South Carolina 7

10. California at Maryland

Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee last week.  Ouch.  So much for them being an ACC sleeper, as I had thought.  This week they get a Cal team that is on fire, obliterating Wazzu 66-3 last week on the Palousse.  Even with the cross-country trip and the noon start they should plow through the Terps as well.  California 38, Maryland 14

11. Oregon at Purdue

Oregon is flying under the radar right now, but this is a very good football team.  They've been stockpiling talent in Eugene for several years now, and it's starting to pay off with a yearly spot among the top 15.  A visit to Purdue will test them, but the Boilermakers don't have the horses to keep up.  Oregon 41, Purdue 24

12. Arkansas at Texas

This one really gets the blood boiling for Razorback fans.  Too bad they can't suit up, their team needs all the help it can get after 2 squeakers against awful competition.  Because of the rivalry, Arkansas will play much better than in their first 2 games, but Texas will run away with this one in the second half.  Texas 44, Arkansas 13

13. Iowa State at Iowa

A rivalry game between mediocre teams.  People outside of Iowa won't pay any attention to this game, but it will likely be close and entertaining.  These two schools have played some good games over the years, and they always seem to be close.  I think Iowa State will surprise many by making a bowl out of a difficult Big 12, and this is one of those swing games that could dictate whether or not they accomplish that feat.  Iowa State 23, Iowa 21

14. North Carolina at Rutgers

The Tar Heels had to come back to beat McNeese State in their opener, which doesn't bode well for my prediction of them winning the ACC.  Or maybe it does - at least they won, something ACC teams are struggling to do this season.  The Big East hasn't looked much better, and Rutgers didn't show me anything in their opening loss to Fresno State.  I'll go with Carolina, because they do have the talent to win the ACC.  A win on the road against a solid program could go a long way in determining the Tar Heels' fate this year.  North Carolina 28, Rutgers 23

15. Stanford at TCU

I missed on Stanford last week.  I'll admit it.  I still think Jim Harbaugh's squad will pull a big upset somewhere along the line, they're improving fast and are very well-coached.  Harbaugh may be first on the candidate list during the next offseason.  But TCU has won both their games handily, and they could be the thorn in the side of both Utah and BYU's run at a BCS berth.  Or could they become a third BCS threat from the Mountain West?  They're tough at home, and I think they'll hand Stanford a tough loss.  TCU 21, Stanford 13