- Each week has seen a different major conference lay an egg: ACC in week one, Big East in week 2 (well, both 1 and 2), and the Pac Ten this past weekend. There were some murmurs that the Pac Ten was near the level of the Big 12 and SEC, but that was before Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and California all put up stinkers on Saturday.
- Penn State is the most underrated team in the country. Ranked 15 and 16 in the major polls, the Nittany Lions are posting numbers similar to highly-rated Missouri and Oklahoma, against a similar competition level (for example: PPG- PSU 55.3, Mizzou 57.7, OU 54.7; YPG- PSU 538.3, Mizzou 602.7, OU 558.7). You might call me a homer for tabbing PSU as vastly underrated, but their resume warrants a top-10 ranking, not a struggle to gain traction around number 15.
- Auburn is the most overrated team in the country. Don't get me wrong, I like the Tigers and I think they'll have a 10-win season, but their performance thus far hasn't justified the number 9 and 10 ranking in the polls they currently enjoy. Their defense may be the best in the nation, but their offense is borderline inept right now, and no one can be impressed by a 3-2 win over a Mississippi State team that lost to Louisiana Tech in their opener. The SEC is brutal, but that's ridiculous.
- Charlie Weis is apparently a sadist. I'm not trying to be mean by saying that, but did you see him talking about his knee injury at his postgame press conference? He was downright giddy, almost celebrating the fact that he suffered a cataclysmic knee injury, just because he felt like an athlete. Creepy.
- USC and the Big Ten winner have great chances to play for the national title. Let me explain this logic. Eight out of the current top 10 teams are in the SEC or Big 12, which are clearly the 2 best conferences in the country. The schedule facing these schools in conference play is absolutely daunting, and any one of them running the table seems unlikely. So an undefeated team from the other major conferences could slip past into the championship game. Enter USC, who already won their toughest game this year. As for the other slot, the ACC has no one capable and South Florida in the Big East looks too sketchy, leaving the door open for the Big Ten, and specifically Penn State or Wisconsin. Circle their October 11 clash on the calendar, the winner just might be playing in Miami on January 8.
This week all eyes turn south, to a pair of big SEC games, and Georgia's nonconference showdown with a suddenly very embarrassed Arizona State. If the first 3 SEC conference games are any indication (Vandy 24, S. Carolina 17; Georgia 14, S. Carolina 7; and Auburn 3, Miss. St. 2), these games will go the distance - there are no easy games in the SEC this year.
1. LSU at Auburn
Check out the scores from the last 4 games between these 2 teams, all won by the home team: (2004: Auburn 10-9, 2005: LSU 20-17, 2006: Auburn 7-3, 2007: LSU 30-24). All one possession games, all very competitive, all decisive in the final SEC West standings. Last year even featured the crazy finish of Les Miles having his QB toss up a deep pass with no time on the clock to win the game, when a field goal would have been much less stressful and just as effective. Expect the same type of game this year. As noted above, Auburn's offense is about as polished as a junked 1946 Packard, but that may not mean much as this game will be about defense. As much as that offense scares me, I can't go against the 9-year tradition of the home team winning. And maybe this is the game when the Mad Hatter's curious endgame coaching decisions finally bite him. Auburn 13, LSU 10
2. Florida at Tennessee
The Vols loss to UCLA in their first game really looks bad now, after the Bruins were blanked 59-0 to BYU on Saturday. Don't expect to hear too much "Rocky Top" as Florida will take the crowd out of the game early. The Gators have too much on both sides of the ball for Tennessee to handle. Florida 42, Tennessee 17
3. Georgia at Arizona State
UNLV? UNLV? It's one thing to look past a clearly overmatched foe in anticipation of the big boy coming to town next week, but entirely another to let them hang around and steal a win. If you want to be an upper-echelon program, you don't let that happen. UNLV was 2-10 last year, one of the worst teams in Division 1-A. Arizona State will enter this game deflated and/or agitated, a combination that will likely lead to stupid penalties and costly turnovers. That's not what you want to do against Georgia. SEC power gets put on display in Tempe. Georgia 37, Arizona State 24
4. Notre Dame at Michigan State
Notre Dame has fared well recently in East Lansing, but I'm going to go with the Spartans in this one. The Irish are still a young team, and Michigan State is much more well-coached this year than the last time Notre Dame came to town. Their margin of victory over Michigan was also more a product of Wolverine turnovers than Irish strength. Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 24
5. West Virginia at Colorado
Interesting Thursday night matchup here. Which West Virginia team will show up? The one that scored 3 points against East Carolina, or the one which features Heisman candidate Pat White and electric running back Noel Devine? While the cross-country mid-week trek won't be easy, Colorado isn't exactly a world-beater, having had to escape with a win over 1-AA Eastern Washington last time out. I think the Buffaloes keep it close, but West Virginia rights the ship with a solid win. West Virginia 31, Colorado 27
6. Miami (FL) at Texas A&M
If Texas A&M couldn't beat Arkansas State at home, they're not beating the Hurricanes. Miami (FL) 26, Texas A&M 14
7. Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Virginia Tech has had some struggles with the Tar Heels in recent years, and this is the best North Carolina team they've faced in awhile. The Tar Heels got a huge win at Rutgers last Thursday, and they have a few extra days to rest up before facing the Hokies. Virginia Tech's offense has been lackluster, and there's no reason to think they're on the verge of a breakout. North Carolina gets an important potential division-tiebreaker win. North Carolina 23, Virginia Tech 20
8. Wake Forest at Florida State
Florida State has beaten two 1-AA opponents in their first 2 games, so it's hard to tell what they have at this point. They'll face a steady, unspectacular Wake Forest team who won't make mistakes and give the Seminoles the game. Florida State will be juiced to play this one - the last time the Demon Deacons came to town they pasted Florida State 30-0. Look for the Seminoles to exact some revenge and insert themselves into the ACC Atlantic race. Florida State 20, Wake Forest 15
9. Iowa at Pittsburgh
A boring Iowa team visits an underachieving Pitt team. Not many storylines here. The Big East needs a few more wins against other BCS conferences, and I think Pitt will get them one here. Despite the early loss to Bowling Green, the Panthers will be a player in a weak Big East. Pittsburgh 28, Iowa 21
10. Boise State at Oregon
Oregon returns home to friendly Autzen Stadium after a very good win at Purdue. They showed resilience in coming back from a 2 touchdown deficit, and their freshman QB showed that he's ready to play. He'll need to be with starter Roper out for a few weeks. Boise State will challenge the Ducks, but Oregon's home field advantage is too much. Oregon 41, Boise State 31
11. Arizona at UCLA
Yikes. Both these teams come off road losses to Mountain West teams. The Bruins comeback over Tennessee really looks miraculous now, and there aren't enough smoke and mirrors to mask their offensive deficiencies. Arizona 23, UCLA 14
12. Alabama at Arkansas
This is the forgotten SEC conference matchup of the week. Arkansas isn't very good, but they'll still prove to be a stiff test for Alabama - any SEC road win is a good win. Alabama 27, Arkansas 17
13. Mississippi State at Georgia Tech
If you like boring football, make the trip to Atlanta this weekend. Mississippi State brings their point-a-half offense to town to face Georgia Tech's triple option attack. Look for lots of running plays and incomplete passes. The Yellow Jackets have been pretty solid this year, and the Bulldogs shouldn't prove too difficult a test. Georgia Tech 16, Mississippi State 6
14. East Carolina at N.C. State
East Carolina breathes a sigh of relief after escaping New Orleans last week with a win. They go back to a more comfortable place - beating up on BCS conference schools. ECU will play too many close games this year to run the table - their offense isn't explosive enough for them to have too many blowouts - but this won't be the week their BCS hopes buy the farm. East Carolina 25, N.C. State 23
15. Kansas State at Louisville
A rare Wednesday game between BCS conference schools. I can't justify taking Louisville after their dismal performance at home against Kentucky to start the season. Kansas State has more firepower than Kentucky, in spite of a weaker defense. Kansas State 42, Louisville 31
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